History shows that once our recession forecast model reaches current levels, aggressive policy can delay recession, but not avoid it.

We examine how the shift favoring passive investment and the surge in artificial intelligence-based applications are crossing paths. These two factors are highly complementary in how they can be brought together to address investor concerns emerging in the post bull-market cycle.

In discussing artificial intelligence, we move away from a black-box mentality, framing both concept and practice. We believe that AI is just as understandable as any other investment approach, offering enhanced asset-management capabilities in a period of potentially greater volatility.

Following the surge in negative-yielding debt, we believe investors should consider how they hedge against central bank uncertainty and avoid being too conservative in fixed income.

Despite the potential for choppy trade, we could see mid-single-digit returns over the next 12 months.

A growing number of companies are facing secular risks that could impair their long-term growth prospects. While this trend poses challenges for many traditional issuers of high yield bonds, it is also creating a new generation of companies in the high yield market that offer attractive opportunities.

Traditional muni indices are concentrated in higher quality bonds and may have more interest-rate risk.

Passive products that track traditional municipal bond benchmarks may give investors excessive exposure to duration (interest-rate) risk, because of the way traditional indices are constructed.

A strategic municipal bond approach, with a focus on diversification and the flexibility to navigate interest-rate risk and credit risk, may help address this challenge.

Hiring a next-gen advisor can benefit every aspect of your business and set you up for long-term success and growth. Download our free white paper to learn insights and actionable steps you can take to help you find the perfect candidate and retain top talent to position your firm for the future.

We surveyed retirees about their happiness and uncovered 5 common habits. See the results and help prepare your clients for a happy retirement.

In this issue of The Weather Report, we wonder what the ultimate end game is regarding China trade and tariffs (Road to Nowhere), explore renewed interest in the gold market (What's Going On With Gold – An Interview), consider the status of the market cycle and implications for the Fed and credit (Economic Hot Takes), provide our latest Interesting Reads, and analyze the state of the yield curve (U.S. Treasury Curve – How’d We Get Here?).

• Investors who own Master Limited Partnership (MLP) dedicated index ETFs or ETNs are facing a critical problem, and they may not even know it
• Since 2014, the number of midstream companies structured as MLPs has slowly and steadily decreased
• Midstream companies structured as C-Corporations (C-Corps) now account for nearly 40% of the market capitalization of the investible midstream universe
• What should investors do about it? Consider an index, and an investment product that tracks it (ticker: PYPE), that seek to identify and select the C-Corps and MLPs we believe best represent U.S. midstream energy fundamentals, agnostic of entity structure

The market has bid up Brazilian assets in anticipation of economic reforms, but the optimism should be well measured and individual securities well picked.

A look at green bond’s role in the climate change challenge and within a fixed income portfolio.

Slowing growth and a significant stock market decline at the start of the year had many wondering whether a recession was near. Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan's position was "not yet." Six months later, he still believes the data supports continued growth for the economy and markets, but there's more to the story, including political risks that could derail the recovery.

Uncover new opportunities to expand your practice and help your clients navigate the do’s and don’ts of IRA rollovers in retirement planning.

“There’s no free lunch” is an axiom often heard in both investing and economics. But what if there’s a way to limit the pain of market downdrafts and still gain from the rebounds? Can disciplined security selection, sound portfolio construction and calibrated rebalancing, as position size and market dynamics evolve, improve the odds for risk-adjusted outperformance, if not necessarily bagging something for nothing?

Why we think Asia high yield credit can offer a distinctive opportunity.

Interest rates have fallen dramatically recently. How should investors be positioning their fixed income portfolios?

We expect modest total returns through year-end, as long as corporate earnings and the global economy continue to expand.

For yield-seeking investors, dividend-paying stocks may present a compelling risk-adjusted return opportunity over bonds.

Investors have become increasingly concerned about the sharp rise in BBB rated corporate debt, and it’s easy to see why. BBB debt has risen over 200% since 2008 and represents about 50% of the investment-grade corporate market’s debt.

Amid the hand wringing over whether the U.S. and China are coming closer together or further apart on a trade deal, a dark horse has emerged in sector investing that seems immune to the cyclic boom and bust of this headline-driven market.

Loomis Sayles Strategic Alpha is a benchmark-agnostic core bond alternative, offering the potential for greater diversification in a risk-aware framework.

The Fed is tasked with keeping prices stable, unemployment low and long-term interest rates moderate. The monetary alchemy with such unstable elements is coming under review.

Commonwealth Financial Network® offers a range of affiliation models for wherever you are—and wherever you're going—in your business evolution. Learn about the vast infrastructure, the people, and the indispensable service that are here to support you and your clients, whether you choose to maintain a mix of fees and commissions or you decide to operate as a fee-only advisor.

• After bottoming in December 2018, the ratio of U.S. stocks to international stocks is re-approaching the all-time highs that they hit in November thanks to strong performance from the Russell 1000®. As illustrated below, this ratio remains considerably above its historical average. In fact, its north of two positive standard deviations of the average.

• Specifically, U.S. shares have outperformed international shares by 3.11% year-to-date, 10.26% over the last 1 year, 4.91% annualized over the last 3 years and 7.07% annualized over the last 5 years. With increased long exposure to the U.S. and risk-controlled short exposure to international markets, the Russell 1000®/FTSE All-World ex US 150/50 Net Spread Index is up 13.77% on the year.

Given the rise of passive strategies in both equity and fixed income markets, today’s investors often hold actively managed strategies to a higher standard of performance than they have in the past. The failure of some “core bond” strategies to meet investor expectations has prompted them to search for alternative solutions.

Moat investing is based on a simple concept: Invest in companies with sustainable competitive advantages trading at attractive valuations. One of the first steps of implementing this approach is finding companies with a moat.

A company’s moat refers to its ability to maintain the competitive advantages that are expected to help it fend off competition and maintain profitability into the future. Morningstar has identified five sources of moat: Switching Costs, Intangible Assets, Network Effect, Cost Advantage, Efficient Scale.

In this paper, we provide an overview of how these attributes may contribute to a company’s moat and highlight companies that showcase these sources of moat.

The Weather Report provides insight into current events, market outlooks and topics we find interesting that may help you achieve success in reaching your clients’ financial goals. Inside this issue, you’ll find our analysis on current events, what to watch for when it comes to inflation and where the opportunities are in fixed income.

Opportunities for investors to gain exposure to China’s markets are growing.

In one of its biggest six-month moves since 2016, the price of gold has rebounded about 10 percent from a 52-week low it set back in August 2018. But the precious metal once again found itself hitting resistance in the $1350-$1360 per ounce range. It’s now been about five and a half years since gold topped out at $1,400.

Despite sprinting higher so far this year, developing country equities appear well positioned to sustain their momentum, and with less volatility.

Expectations now call for zero rate hikes in 2019. We explore an unconventional decade and discuss the drivers of future rate decisions.

A simple, but yet extremely effective way to help save clients money and gain their trust is to provide cheaper highly correlated ETF alternatives to their mutual fund investments. Raltin runs 2.5 Billion correlations on all combinations of 40,000+ ETFs, mutual funds and stocks to find the most correlated ETF to mutual funds. Just go to Raltin.com and and search for the mutual fund to find ETF alternatives. For example, Raltin’s page for T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund Inc (TRBCX) shows that the iShares Russell Growth ETF (IWF) has a 0.97 correlation to TRBCX.

Markets anticipating rebound in growth and continued economic expansion.

While defensive sectors continue to lead cyclicals by 3.23% over the last six months, cyclicals have bounced back over the last three, outperforming defensives by 5.43%, helping bring twelve-month performance firmly in the lead for cyclicals. The market leadership via cyclical sectors highlights the fact that market participants continue to favor firms with higher betas and greater economic sensitivity than the market thanks to reduced concerns about rising rates and optimism regarding China-U.S. trade relations.

Institutional-quality research for you and your clients. Guidance on investment management programs, equities, fixed income, and alternatives. A dedicated SRI/ESG resource. Direct access to our chief investment officer. That’s the value-add you get from Commonwealth Financial Network’s Investment Research team.

The resurgence of volatility in late 2018 took many investors by surprise, given all the prevailing signs of a healthy U.S. economy (e.g., strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth, low unemployment, robust corporate earnings). This volatility was driven by growing investor uncertainty—from interest rates and inflation to trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. 2018 was a year of divergence between economies and markets. While most countries saw their economies expand last year, the performance of their respective financial markets was poor.

For the past several years, despite mounting political concerns and a few short-term setbacks, the economy and markets have continued to grow. But now that story seems to be changing. With key economic indicators and investor confidence taking a hit recently, what will this mean for 2019? Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan presents his expectations for the new year.

Technological innovations, strong management teams and a valuation opportunity, make the case for diversifying a portfolio to include mid-caps. Read our insights on mid-cap trends in 2019.

Our 2019 Outlook from the Loomis Sayles Sector Teams shares insights and opportunities across every sector, from bank loans to currencies.

Adaptability. Growth potential. Overlooked opportunity. Mid-cap stocks may be the missing piece to help solve for growth. We make the case for why advisors may want to consider this often-underappreciated asset class.

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2019 and beyond.

Have clients that need help with an IRA rollover decision? This white paper is an investor-friendly look at all the options and considerations for retirement account rollovers. It’s a tool for advisors to help educate their clients on opportunities to explore, including self-directed investment choices, as well as mistakes to avoid.

Modest total returns and above-average volatility may define the risk asset landscape in 2019 as economic and corporate earnings growth slow.

Corporate profits and economic growth remain positive, but are past their peak. Investors may soon find that reaching the summit was the easy part. The real challenges occur in the climb down. Chief Investment Strategist Michael Arone, CFA and Head of SPDR® Americas Research Matthew Bartolini, CFA present three strategies to position for a market with potentially more downside than upside.

Guggenheim Investments’ recently published Fourth Quarter 2018 Fixed-Income Outlook reflects its investment management team’s view that the risk of a sudden widening in spreads next year is rising and could shock fixed-income investors who fail to position defensively now. “The key here is to manage this shift in a timely manner,” said Scott Minerd, Global CIO and Chairman of Investments. “Call it a jog to exit credit and liquidity risk.”

As fixed-income markets are constantly changing, Pacific FundsSM Strategic Income (the Fund) has the ability to adapt to these changing environments. The Fund’s investment team seeks opportunities across an array of securities including: high-yield bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, Treasuries, floating-rate loans, and equities. Pacific Funds Strategic Income Portfolio Manager Brian Robertson discusses the process and philosophy behind the Fund.

Volatility in emerging markets (EM) is to be expected when global conditions shift. Sell-offs in EM can be a good time to be contrarian by differentiating between the casualties and the survivors. We believe that identifying the different stages to a crisis and looking closely at troubled countries such as Turkey and Argentina can reveal opportunities to take advantage of potential recoveries.

Some advisors today are rushing to sell their practices after very little forethought, and they could be leaving money on the table. If you want to get what your practice is worth, focus on four key tenets—business, management, financial, and market—to demonstrate your value to potential buyers.

Pacific Funds^SM Strategic Income Portfolio Manager Brian Robertson discusses the portfolio management team’s investment process and philosophy.

The next few years are likely to see a flow of money away from financial assets, hitting returns and leading to a spike in volatility. Emerging markets offer some attractive valuations at present, and the U.S. economy looks to be in good shape but may face headwinds further down the road.

Growing your business through practice acquisition is a good goal, but it's a long-term strategy that can take years to accomplish. How can you meet your growth objectives in the meantime? By focusing on these client-facing activities that are proven revenue drivers.

Growth and inflation within the world’s largest economies should remain near current levels, keeping the positive operating environment for companies intact.

U.S. Treasuries have traditionally been regarded as the ultimate “flight to quality” asset, but it is unclear whether they will be so in future. One reason for this is that issuance is threatening to outstrip demand; another is that the traditional negative correlation between Treasuries and equities appears to be breaking down.

The Loomis Sayles Multi-Asset Income Team shares their approach to creating sustainable, consistent income through any market environment.

Pacific Funds^SM portfolio managers discuss how they were able to “stay the course” during the market volatility in early 2018.

Given an improving global growth story and rising asset prices, what do we expect for the remainder of 2018? In this outlook, Pacific Funds investment managers discuss insights, themes, and trends that may shape the market for the rest of the year.

Momentum in the US economy relative to the rest of the world should keep the Fed on its current path to higher short-term interest rates.

At a time of low expected returns, low current yields and economic uncertainty, individual investors are demanding new options. Recent advances in product design enable investors to access less liquid and illiquid institutional-caliber alternatives in a “user-friendly” format which preserves the integrity of the underlying strategy. These new product designs contrast mutual funds which may contain watered-down liquid versions of the original.

New thinking about liquidity, its role in a portfolio and improved access to a wide spectrum of alternatives enables investors to deploy less liquid strategies and capitalize on liquidity premiums.

Christopher Romanelli examines the factors that could support the high yield market in a world of tighter monetary policy.

Most investors, whether institutional or individual, tend to believe that stocks are a good—perhaps even the best—investment in the long run. However, the reason for expecting good performance from stocks is perhaps not always clearly articulated: Quite simply, it is because they are risky. Investors also tend to believe that investing in alternatives, such as managed futures, necessitates sacrificing some of their stock and/or bond asset allocation. This Insight explains how investors can have both the diversification benefits of managed futures, and their traditional stock/bond portfolio. Thus, the power of “&”.

In a recent Webinar, we introduced the Equinox “Ampersand” concept. Here, we try to provide not just a recap, but a more in-depth “under the hood” look at some of the details of the structure, to which we could not do justice during the relatively short Webinar. We also try to address some of the questions and concerns we have heard.

With current yields for high-yield bonds and floating-rate loans nearly equal, investors give up little income potential to move higher in the capital structure with loans, which helps reduce downside risk and volatility in their portfolio. The portfolio managers of Pacific Asset Management, manager for Pacific Funds ℠ Fixed-Income Funds, discuss how to navigate these markets.

The LOIS spread is at its widest point since the financial crisis. It may be unnerving, but we don't think it's a sign of trouble in the financial system.

Spikes in volatility levels can impact returns on a fund’s portfolio. The relatively low leverage point (1.25X) for Portfolio+ ETFs provide less impact of negative compounding over time for long-term investors.

We expect the upward trend in rates to continue, but at a fairly slow pace that shouldn’t disrupt risk assets.

In recent years, the retail industry has experienced major shake-ups in regard to shifting business models, including the increasing popularity of e-commerce. Businesses that rely on revenue exclusively from physical stores—once the all-important showrooms for goods and services—have not only become less relevant, but also less efficient from a cost perspective.

Part 3 of 3: Most investors tend to believe that stocks are a good—perhaps even the best—investment in the long run. However, the reason for expecting good performance from stocks is perhaps not always clearly articulated: Quite simply, it is because they are risky.

FX trading involves infinite complexities, opportunities and risks. Loomis Sayles breaks down some of the concepts and describes the firm's approach.

Part 2 of 3: Most investors tend to believe that stocks are a good—perhaps even the best—investment in the long run. However, the reason for expecting good performance from stocks is perhaps not always clearly articulated: Quite simply, it is because they are risky.

In recent years, the retail industry has experienced major shake-ups, including the increasing popularity of e-commerce. But the rise in e-commerce has not impacted all retail sectors equally. To understand the implications of this shift, we interviewed the portfolio managers of Rothschild Asset Management Inc., subadvisor for Pacific Funds℠ U.S. Equity Funds.

While many U.S. investors have shifted their holdings from actively managed accounts to indexed vehicles in an effort to capitalize on recent equity market tailwinds, the relative performance of passive strategies over the past decade doesn't necessarily justify that decision. This white paper from Baird Equity Asset Management explains why.

Most investors tend to believe that stocks are a good—perhaps even the best—investment in the long run. However, the reason for expecting good performance from stocks is perhaps not always clearly articulated: Quite simply, it is because they are risky. “The Risk Contribution of Stocks” is Part 1 of a 3-part series.

Virtually nobody disputes that Asset Allocation has the greatest impact on portfolio performance and yet most Advisor-designed portfolios are dominated by active funds trying to “win” through security selection.

If you want to construct resilient portfolios that can thrive under most market conditions (including periods like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis), it’s time to consider global adaptive asset allocation. We’ve prepared this exclusive whitepaper to explain why. Don’t miss it!

NAFTA is facing an existential threat. The US and its global trading partners could be entering uncharted territory.

In the current long bull market, many investors are wondering if the stock market can continue its steady rise. Are the markets and global economy “as good as it gets,” or is “the best yet to come” for equity investors? Chautauqua Capital Management explores this question in its recent market update and global outlook.

What’s ahead for major market sectors in 2018? Experts from research, trading and portfolio management at Loomis Sayles weigh in.

It’s tempting, and quite natural, to want to attribute strong performance in any given year to superhuman work ethic, insight, or talent. The fact is, our superb results this year reflect less on the value of our strategies, and more on the role of luck on short-term investment results. What made 2017 a perfect positive storm for certain multi-asset strategies? And what features make certain multi-asset strategies more likely to prosper in the years ahead? All this and a lot more insights in ReSolve’s 2017 Annual Review

Are low levels of volatility and continued growth sustainable? In this outlook, Pacific Funds investment managers discuss insights, themes, and trends that may shape the market in 2018.

While investing solely in a small-cap core strategy can provide a set-it-and-forget-it approach, those who believe in rebalancing or taking tactical views may prefer both small-cap value and small-cap growth strategies.

There’s no questioning Amazon's impact on the consumer sector. The market continues to reward the company for its ambition, demonstrated success in taking market share, disruption of traditional business models, and expansion into new verticals and channels. However, this doesn't mean other opportunities don't exist in the consumer space.

In this recent white paper, Baird Equity Asset Management explores what some have dubbed "The Amazon Effect" in the changing consumer sector. Read on for timely insight on the risks and opportunities in today’s markets.

“The “free lunch” of diversification is that it allows investors to keep more of their money invested in high return assets while lowering the overall risk of the portfolio. Learn how to build explosion resistant, bulletproof portfolios to weather the markets’ most hostile environments. We guarantee you’ve never learned about diversification like this before.

Adopt a rainmaking mind-set to boost revenue. Download our free template outlining the 20-point system that can help you stay focused on revenue-generating activities. Learn practical strategies and techniques you can start implementing today to increase referrals, optimize strategic alliances, network more effectively, market to clients and prospects, and hold yourself accountable for your own success!

Does the high yield bond market offer enough value at this point in the credit cycle?

Investors are much more likely to achieve their target returns, regardless of investment environment, by investing in diversified portfolios with scaled exposure along the Capital Market Line. We showcase a live case study and describe steps investors can take to achieve very attractive results.

Take a fresh look at pricing your advisory business. Download our free guide to learn how small changes to your fee structure can have a big impact on your bottom line, protect you against market downturns and withdrawals, and entice clients to consolidate more assets with your firm.

Given relative-value considerations and the potential for a return of volatility, bank loans may serve as a strong complement to other risk factors in an overall diversified portfolio. In this article, Pacific Funds portfolio managers, JP Leasure and Michael Marzouk, discuss the loan market, outlook, and portfolio strategy for the remainder of 2017.

Uncertainty abounds in the global marketplace – what are the risks and opportunities, and what is an investor to do in today’s markets? Chautauqua Capital Management discusses how to invest in the current environment.

It’s been 10 years since Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. first launched the Schwab Fundamental Index Funds. Fundamental Index strategies were among the first to hit the market within the strategic beta universe.

Eight years into its run, the global expansion looks poised to continue. What might this mean for asset markets?

It’s a common misconception that credit and equity performance move in tandem. When can divergence occur and how can credit investors prepare?

Pacific Funds portfolio managers discuss the current market environment, fiscal and regulatory policy, and their broad positioning for the second half of 2017.

Many income-seeking investors may need a new approach in today's low-yield environment. Loomis Sayles can offer a unique solution.

The Fed is withdrawing from the MBS market, but we see a number of positives supporting agency MBS over the next 6 to 12 months.

Uncertainty was a major theme in the first half of 2017, which had a pronounced impact on the financial markets. In times like these, it’s important to work with investment managers who are experienced at navigating these markets. Pacific Funds^SM investment managers discuss insights, themes, and trends that may shape the market in the remainder of 2017.

Investor confidence in the global outlook for monetary policy, economic growth and inflation has kept risk appetite high and volatility contained. Can it continue?

Your clients look to you for guidance and advice when crafting long-term financial plans. Understanding your clients’ charitable interests and passions can provide a unique opportunity for you to expand your relationship and help create a long-term strategic plan that also impacts their favorite charitable causes. For additional insights on guiding your clients through the development of their charitable plan, Vanguard Charitable has gathered five best practices for philanthropists, drawing on years of experience working with donors and charities.

The post-U.S. presidential election environment has seen a sharp rally in risk assets and economic optimism. In this note, David Weismiller, portfolio manager for Pacific Asset Management’s investment-grade bond strategies, discusses the market environment and current investment positioning.

After an extremely rapid industrial transformation, China sits at a crossroads that presents both compelling opportunities and significant risks. However, investing success demands a deep understanding of China’s long-term plans, political landscape and key trends. Brian Beitner, Managing Partner of Chautauqua Capital Management, discusses China’s complexities and inherent investment opportunities.

Recent trade actions against Chinese aluminum imports may result in higher tariffs. Ironically, the US and China have their interests aligned in this area.

The ongoing economic and profits recoveries mean global risk assets could see modest upside from here.

Will markets be able to climb the wall of optimism given the recent surge in consumer and business confidence driven by the policy actions of the new U.S. president's administration? Pacific Funds portfolio managers discuss market sentiment, potential economic growth, and their outlook for the balance of 2017.

In 2017, the risks to the euro area stem from politics, not the economy.

President Trump’s campaign promises may have important implications for the economy and the stock market. In this Q&A, our U.S. equity investment professionals discuss how the first 100 days of the new administration may impact the market.

We’re modestly optimistic about 2017, but there are a host of unknowns as we become acquainted with our new President Trump, what policies he may pursue, and how they will impact the world body politic. Loomis Sayles' sector teams weigh in on potential opportunities in the year ahead.

Uncertainty was a major theme in 2016, which had a pronounced impact on the financial markets. In times like these, it’s important to work with investment managers who are experienced at navigating these markets. In this outlook, Pacific Funds investment managers discuss insights, themes, and trends that may shape the market in 2017.

For the first time in quite a while, Washington could prove to be a source of positive earnings catalysts in the months ahead.

What a difference a few months can make. The world economy now looks to be on sounder footing, with economic data surprising to the upside, developed and emerging market economic momentum improving, global manufacturing recovering and the US profits recession ended.

Markets were in reflation mode during the final weeks of 2016, sending the 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level in more than two years. While economic indicators have shown modest improvement, most of the rise in yields is built on lofty expectations. In the coming years, we think a strengthening macro backdrop may support modestly higher yields.

Donald Trump’s presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump’s policy proposals mean for markets and key components of the US economy going forward?

With the Fed poised to raise rates and equities trading close to historical valuation peaks, the prospect of lower returns and higher correlations between asset classes has left many investors seeking sources of return which are not correlated to traditional stock and bond performance.

Trend following is one strategy that has the potential to profit from rising rates without depending upon positive equity market performance, however, allocating to the space does present some unique challenges. In a new whitepaper, CSAM seeks to address key implementation questions regarding allocating to trend following, including why now might be an appropriate time to invest and how to fund and size an allocation.

We expect equities to continue their slow uptrend into next year.

Can the shift to value account for the improved relative results for many small-cap active managers in the last year?

Senior Global Economist James Balfour explores some of the key macro themes influencing global markets.

Fiscal policy developments could create bond market volatility going forward, but historically low interest rates are likely to persist.

How can the Fed uphold a dual mandate while recognizing the interdependence of global policies, economies, and financial conditions? Pacific Funds portfolio managers assess the new conundrum that Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen is facing and what it means for the remainder of 2016.