Closing the Gold Window Opened the Door to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
In the years since the end of the gold standard, there’s been a significant lack of discipline in government spending. Today, the federal debt is closing in on an astronomical $28 trillion, which is more than 130% of the size of the U.S. economy.
America's Driving Habits as of November 2020
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -11.1% (-28.9 billion vehicle miles) for November 2020 as compared with November 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 231.6 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 1.01% month-over-month and down 12.5% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 1.07% month-over-month and down 12.8% year-over-year.
The Rise and Fall and Rise of Commodities – A story bound to be told again.
What goes up must come down... but does what goes down have to come up? According to the laws of gravity, no. As for commodity markets, however, history tells us it is true.
Should Bondholders Keep Faith in Europe’s Banks?
For European banks’ stockholders, 2020 was a year to forget. But bank bondholders enjoyed positive returns and may overcome COVID-19 challenges again in 2021, backed by solid balance sheets and supportive regulatory conditions.
When Markets Are Recovering, Don’t Ignore Volatility
Global stocks rebounded sharply from the coronavirus market crash in 2020, but the ride was rocky. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns through the recovery from COVID-19.
New Residential Housing Starts at 1.67M in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.669M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.560M and an increase from the previous month's revised 1.578M.
New Residential Building Permits: Up Another 4.5% in December
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.709M was up 4.5% from the November reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.604M.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Continued Growth in January
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 26.5, up 17.4 from last month's 9.1. The 3-month moving average came in at 18.8, up from 18.1 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 52.8, up 9.7 from the previous month's 43.1.
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Valuation Metrics
2020 was a remarkable year, to say the least. As we begin 2021, we are faced with as many questions as we have answers. While the global pandemic caused economies to come to an abrupt halt in early 2020, we are now seeing some recovery, albeit tempered by recent spikes in infections.
Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy
Despite seeing major market swings following the 2016 Brexit referendum, we don’t expect Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU) to have any major economic effects in our baseline outlook for 2021 and beyond. Far more important are COVID-19, fiscal policy, and bigger questions around future productivity growth.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Up Another 1.4%
As of January 18, the price of Regular and Premium were up six and five cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.33 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.06. The WTIC end of day (January 19) spot price closed at 52.98, up 1.4% from the last week and its highest since February 2020.