Fossil Fuels Are Under Siege. Is Misinformation to Blame?
It’s becoming more and more difficult to be in the fossil fuel business. On both sides of the Atlantic, lawmakers and unelected bureaucrats are turning up the heat, so to speak, on companies over the issue of climate change.
Japan Elections and Market Update
On September 3, 2021, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced his decision to not run in the upcoming ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership race later this month. Portfolio Manager Shuntaro Takeuchi provides his thoughts on the current political environment and outlook for Japanese equities.
Retail Sales Up 0.7% in August, 15.1% YoY
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.71% month-over-month to two decimals and was above the Investing.com forecast of -0.8%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.81% MoM.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: "Current Indicators Remain Elevated"
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 30.7, up 11.3 from last month's 19.4. The 3-month moving average came in at 24.0, down from last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 20, down 13.7 from the previous month's 33.7.
Policy Risks Loom But Clarity Ahead
Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September...
Inflation: The Components
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.
Decoding the “Real” Disconnect Between Interest Rates and Inflation
Real interest rates on Treasuries have been strongly negative throughout 2021. But why do investors keep piling into these negative “real” yielding assets? BlackRock’s systematic investment experts decode the markets to reveal why rates are so disconnected from fundamental values and what it means for your bond portfolio.
Paradigm Shifts Impacting the Investment Landscape: China, Inflation and Monetary Policy
There are several “paradigm shifts” impacting markets today, according to Templeton Global Macro CIO Michael Hasenstab. He outlines how central banks might approach tapering of pandemic-driven asset purchases, and the potential investment risks and opportunities he sees.
Components of the CPI: August 2021
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.