The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
The US Centers For Disease Control and Prevention reported last week that the US birth rate plunged for its sixth consecutive year in 2020. The US fertility rate also hit a new record low. Demographers are puzzled at this potentially troubling trend...
The smallest companies in the market may be overlooked by many investors, but can offer big potential. Here, we posed some questions about micro-capitalization (microcap) stocks to Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager Oliver Wong, who explains how they have fared recently and where he’s finding opportunities.
We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,774, down 5.7% from 45-plus years ago.
Inheritance tax could make a return to the political agenda after decades of declining use as governments try to repair public finances and address widening inequality after the pandemic.
A wealth tax “crosses the line and is unnecessary,” according to Ray Dalio.
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
The headline number for April came in at 98.2, up 1.6 from the previous month. The index is at the 50th percentile in this series.
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
A great advisor has natural comprehension, intuition, empathy, and compassion. That is why women make exceptional financial advisors.
High-profile episodes, such as that involving GameStop, have led some to advocate for banning short selling. But new research confirms that short sellers play a valuable role in keeping markets efficient and preventing prices from overshooting their intrinsic value.
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”
The markets continue their upward trend, supported by accommodative fiscal policy from the Federal Reserve, strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and solid earnings reports.
From digital factories to plant-based clothing, climate change investing is much more than just investing in renewable energy, according to the Templeton Global Equity Group.
The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
While gold is valued for a variety of reasons, the uncertainty and economic fallout tied to the COVID-19 pandemic saw investment drive the price of the yellow metal to record highs in 2020.
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
The U.S. Treasury more than quadrupled its borrowing estimate for the quarter through June, and expects to need some $1.3 trillion over the second half of the fiscal year to help pay for a raft of fresh pandemic-relief spending.
It came as a shock on Wall Street the last few days, how much better the world’s biggest companies were doing than anyone thought. Also unexpected was what the market made of those results. Despite big earnings beats, the share-price performance of the vaunted Faang cohort has been mediocre.
America’s municipal bonds are staging their longest winning streak against Treasuries in seven years.
Every year, the identities of almost 2.5 million Americans who are deceased are stolen by thieves to open fraudulent credit cards, access financial assets, file fake tax returns, obtain driver’s licenses, steal medical identities and more.
Why don’t more business owners upgrade their current 401(k) plans to take full advantage of larger tax deductions and accelerated retirement savings?
Loomis Sayles credit research analysts look at President Biden's American Jobs Plan and discuss the components that might affect the power sector.
As the US economy continues to reopen, economic growth is accelerating in line with our above-consensus forecasts.
On April 20, we hosted our first ever virtual Market Outlook Summit. Here is a recap of each session with a link to watch the replay.
Corporate executives often bemoan the cost of high regulation, but new research show that greater federal regulatory scrutiny has historically correlated with better stock performance.
I will explore three approaches to options-based strategies: DIY, an ETF or a RILA.
President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes
"Buy American:" easier said than done. Sports leagues are still struggling, and tax evasion is costly.
Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.
Valid until the market close on May 310 2021.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 6% after a gain of 4.24% in March. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
With everything up, where are the value buying opportunities?
David Bahnsen does a podcast for National Review called Capital Record. We did a two-part series. The following is an edited partial transcript of the first part.
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
This week’s unveiling of the American Families Plan, the latest proposal from the White House, makes it clear that President Joe Biden is serious about pursuing some of the individual tax increases he called for during the 2020 campaign.
The consumer asset-backed securities sector is often under heightened scrutiny.
SPACs have lured billions of investor dollars with the chance of sensational payoffs. But research shows that post-IPO investors have paid a huge price for relying on that overhyped hope.
With the release of this morning's report on March's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 23.57% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 22.94% when we adjust for inflation and an all-time high. This is an increase from last month's -7.91% nominal and -8.13% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 31.77% nominal and 28.78% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in March rose 1.44% and is up 3.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.92%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year.
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
Here’s one way the federal government could help America’s black colleges and universities: expand the market for their tax-exempt bonds.
In less than four months, investors have already poured more cash into ETFs tracking U.S. stocks than they did in all of 2020.
Developed-market (DM) household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined gross domestic product (GDP).
In December of 2018, I was invited to dinner with some of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders at the Guggenheim museum in New York.
Much has changed since the oil-market collapse in the early pandemic days of 2020, when prices actually turned negative. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Research Analyst/Portfolio Manager Bryant Dieffenbacher looks back at industry developments since then, and outlines opportunities he sees in the high-yield energy bond market today.
Nuclear decommissioning trusts (NDTs), the pools of money accumulated over decades used to dismantle nuclear power plants and safely dispose of radioactive materials, allocate about 40% of their assets to fixed income securities.
President Joe Biden and his economic team are planning to forgo an expansion of the estate tax in the administration’s coming individual tax-hike proposals, according to people briefed on the plan.
Some major changes could be coming soon to a central bank near you, with an estimated 90% of them at some stage of developing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
Investors betting against green trades are going up against the world’s most powerful governments.
Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get?
Human capital needs renewal; COVID-19 sweeps through India again, while the U.S. economy springs back to life.
This article demonstrates why the conventional wisdom of “stocks in taxable, bonds in tax advantaged” is not reliable.
New research shows that, since 2010, “green” stocks – those of companies with a low carbon footprint – have outperformed “brown” stocks. That may have been caused by increased demand from investors pursuing an ESG mandate, which means the effect is temporary and brown stocks now have higher expected returns.
More than 60 central banks right now are believed to be exploring the idea of digital currencies, including retail tokens that would be used by citizens as well as wholesale applications for financial institutions.
I think we will probably have a few months of significantly higher inflation. It will fade but meanwhile hurt certain people and industries. It will be like one of those extremes causing bruised knees and volatile markets.
Investors choose particular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for many reasons, but volume and liquidity are often important considerations.
Wall Street got its stimulus. Now it’s hearing about the bill.
Infrastructure is the backbone of any healthy economy, and America’s is in desperate need of refurbishment and investment.
While a global recovery has now become the base case for financial markets, differences between countries and regions on the path toward normalcy are significant and seem set to widen.
Despite a volatile first quarter, economic fundamentals appear to be improving. We are constructive on the equity market in the near-to-medium term, but we are closely monitoring inflation and interest rates.
Leon Cooperman declined an invitation from Senator Elizabeth Warren to testify at a tax hearing.
Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.
John Vail of Nikko Asset Management dives into the findings from Nikko’s latest Global Investment Committee meeting.
A key risk, perhaps the most critical risk, retirees face is outliving their money. The only product that provides guaranteed protection against that mortality risk is an annuity. But annuities are complex and offer a variety of features, including tax protection, index participation, caps and floors. Here to help us understand the intricacies of annuities and to talk about the latest product developments is Chris Previti.
National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.
As markets surge to record highs, analysts are rushing to ratchet up earnings estimates as optimism explodes.
How do you stop being busy and constantly multitasking? Imagine if you could gain back 40% of your productivity!
You cannot assume the Gen Xers and Millennials who’re receiving that wealth will automatically turn to you for help managing it.
How should clients use tax-advantaged accounts? By quantifying the tax benefits of those accounts, we can refine recommendations on asset location and the traditional-versus-Roth decision.
How many bad/failed companies are being carried by the forbearance of their private and public creditors and emergency injections of cash from government?
There has been an explosion in academic research on the impact of implementing ESG on the risk and returns of equity portfolios. Research on fixed income, which has received less attention, shows that positive ESG scores correlate with lower yield spreads, decreasing future returns for bond investors.
In 40 years, I’ve never seen as many signs of change in the planning/advisory profession as I see right now.
Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe there’s time to venture out and see what treasure was hidden beneath the waves... or maybe not. Prudence would suggest that we go searching for treasure on higher ground.
The first quarter of 2021 was challenging for investors in biotechnology, but Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Managers Evan McCulloch, Wendy Lam and Akiva Felt believe the second half of the year will likely bring welcome tailwinds for the industry.
A year ago it would have been hard to imagine where we’d be sitting today.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
Quarterly commentary - Discussion on the historic stock market measures presently in place due to the Fed's largesse.
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.
How much is a tax deduction worth? Maybe less than your money scripts would have you believe. Here are some common ways that over-emphasizing deductions may reduce your clients’ tax bills but cost them more money than they save.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% since March 23, 2020 (COVID bottom). The economic recovery is in full swing, and between stimulus checks, warm weather, and widespread vaccinations recovery momentum is likely to surge this summer, although downside volatility is intensifying.
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
It isn’t hard these days to find investors trumpeting the demise of the decades-long bull run in Treasuries.
A wealth tax is a bad way to pay off pandemic debts and probably would become permanent if introduced, Nobel Prize-winning economist Angus Deaton said.
Theory predicts and research has shown that positive ESG scores correlate with a lower cost of capital for companies, lowering the expected return on stocks. New research shows a similar effect in the bond market, with positive ESG scores correlated to smaller credit spreads, decreasing the yield to investors.
To compensate, retain and attract employees, many companies issue stock options.
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
Tax Planning
Bill Ackman’s SPAC is “Deeply Engaged” in a Transaction
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
US Birth & Fertility Rates Hit New Record Lows: Why?
The US Centers For Disease Control and Prevention reported last week that the US birth rate plunged for its sixth consecutive year in 2020. The US fertility rate also hit a new record low. Demographers are puzzled at this potentially troubling trend...
Examining the Environment for Microcap Stocks
The smallest companies in the market may be overlooked by many investors, but can offer big potential. Here, we posed some questions about micro-capitalization (microcap) stocks to Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager Oliver Wong, who explains how they have fared recently and where he’s finding opportunities.
Middle-Class Wages in April 2021
We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,774, down 5.7% from 45-plus years ago.
Inheritance Tax Poised for a Comeback in the Post-Covid Era
Inheritance tax could make a return to the political agenda after decades of declining use as governments try to repair public finances and address widening inequality after the pandemic.
Ray Dalio – A Wealth Tax “Crosses the Line”
A wealth tax “crosses the line and is unnecessary,” according to Ray Dalio.
Fed's Patience Tested, Slow Labor Markets, India's COVID Crisis
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
NFIB Small Business Survey: "Optimism Up, But Job Openings Remain at Record Highs"
The headline number for April came in at 98.2, up 1.6 from the previous month. The index is at the 50th percentile in this series.
How Firms Can Evolve for the Future Before It Arrives
This is where the evolution happens, and a firm innovates to thrive in the future.
Why Women Thrive in the Advisory Profession
A great advisor has natural comprehension, intuition, empathy, and compassion. That is why women make exceptional financial advisors.
Short Selling Keeps Markets Efficient
High-profile episodes, such as that involving GameStop, have led some to advocate for banning short selling. But new research confirms that short sellers play a valuable role in keeping markets efficient and preventing prices from overshooting their intrinsic value.
The Recovery will be Positive for Commodities
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
No Country Has Ever Taxed Itself into Prosperity
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”
Strong Earnings and Stimulus Push Stocks Higher
The markets continue their upward trend, supported by accommodative fiscal policy from the Federal Reserve, strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and solid earnings reports.
Climate Change Sectors Heat Up
From digital factories to plant-based clothing, climate change investing is much more than just investing in renewable energy, according to the Templeton Global Equity Group.
David Rosenberg – The Consensus is Wrong about Stocks, Bonds and Inflation
The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
Reasons We Remain Bullish on Gold
While gold is valued for a variety of reasons, the uncertainty and economic fallout tied to the COVID-19 pandemic saw investment drive the price of the yellow metal to record highs in 2020.
Rising Inflation: What It Means for TIPS and Other Investments
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
Treasury Quadruples Borrowing Estimates to Pay for Stimulus
The U.S. Treasury more than quadrupled its borrowing estimate for the quarter through June, and expects to need some $1.3 trillion over the second half of the fiscal year to help pay for a raft of fresh pandemic-relief spending.
Chasing Red-Hot Profit Growth Is a Recipe for Stock-Market Pain
It came as a shock on Wall Street the last few days, how much better the world’s biggest companies were doing than anyone thought. Also unexpected was what the market made of those results. Despite big earnings beats, the share-price performance of the vaunted Faang cohort has been mediocre.
Muni Bonds See Longest Winning Streak Over Treasuries Since 2014
America’s municipal bonds are staging their longest winning streak against Treasuries in seven years.
Help Clients Prevent Deceased Identity Theft
Every year, the identities of almost 2.5 million Americans who are deceased are stolen by thieves to open fraudulent credit cards, access financial assets, file fake tax returns, obtain driver’s licenses, steal medical identities and more.
Helping Business Owners with Cash-Balance Retirement Plans
Why don’t more business owners upgrade their current 401(k) plans to take full advantage of larger tax deductions and accelerated retirement savings?
The American Jobs Plan and its Impact on the Power Sector
Loomis Sayles credit research analysts look at President Biden's American Jobs Plan and discuss the components that might affect the power sector.
What Could US Corporate Tax Hikes Mean for Share Buybacks?
As the US economy continues to reopen, economic growth is accelerating in line with our above-consensus forecasts.
A Recap of Our Virtual Market Outlook Summit
On April 20, we hosted our first ever virtual Market Outlook Summit. Here is a recap of each session with a link to watch the replay.
High Regulatory Costs Drive Higher Stock Returns
Corporate executives often bemoan the cost of high regulation, but new research show that greater federal regulatory scrutiny has historically correlated with better stock performance.
It’s Good to Have Options Part 2: DIY vs ETF vs RILA
I will explore three approaches to options-based strategies: DIY, an ETF or a RILA.
Resisting the Budget Blowout
President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some massive tax hikes
Economic Commentary: "Buy American," Economics of Sports, Tax Evasion
"Buy American:" easier said than done. Sports leagues are still struggling, and tax evasion is costly.
The Coming Disinflation
Supply chain disruptions may be a near-term challenge, but base effects will slow inflation next year.
Moving Averages: Up 6% in April
Valid until the market close on May 310 2021.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 6% after a gain of 4.24% in March. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
Weekly Market Snapshot
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
With Everything Up Right Now, Where are the Value Buying Opportunities?
With everything up, where are the value buying opportunities?
Anomaly of a Recovery
David Bahnsen does a podcast for National Review called Capital Record. We did a two-part series. The following is an edited partial transcript of the first part.
Weekly Investment Strategy
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
4 Tips for Handling a Potential Capital Gains Tax Change
This week’s unveiling of the American Families Plan, the latest proposal from the White House, makes it clear that President Joe Biden is serious about pursuing some of the individual tax increases he called for during the 2020 campaign.
Post-COVID Trials and Trends in Consumer ABS
The consumer asset-backed securities sector is often under heightened scrutiny.
SPACs: A Triumph of Hype over Wisdom
SPACs have lured billions of investor dollars with the chance of sensational payoffs. But research shows that post-IPO investors have paid a huge price for relying on that overhyped hope.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in March, All-Time High
With the release of this morning's report on March's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 23.57% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 22.94% when we adjust for inflation and an all-time high. This is an increase from last month's -7.91% nominal and -8.13% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 31.77% nominal and 28.78% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in March
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in March rose 1.44% and is up 3.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.92%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year.
Biden Dares Democrats to Shift Tax Burden to Wealthy Americans
Joe Biden took the riskiest step of his presidency with a call for higher taxes on the wealthy to fund a massive investment in the nation’s social safety net, betting he could sell the American public on sweeping change following a pandemic that exacerbated economic and social divides.
Congress Urged to Use Muni Tax Breaks to Help Black Colleges
Here’s one way the federal government could help America’s black colleges and universities: expand the market for their tax-exempt bonds.
A $246 Billion Bonanza Means Stock ETF Inflows Already Beat 2020
In less than four months, investors have already poured more cash into ETFs tracking U.S. stocks than they did in all of 2020.
Will Household Savings Provide an Upside Growth Surprise?
Developed-market (DM) household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined gross domestic product (GDP).
Bitcoin Is An Ecological And Monetary Disaster And It Happens To Be Worth Zero.
In December of 2018, I was invited to dinner with some of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders at the Guggenheim museum in New York.
High Yield Bonds in View: Energy
Much has changed since the oil-market collapse in the early pandemic days of 2020, when prices actually turned negative. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Research Analyst/Portfolio Manager Bryant Dieffenbacher looks back at industry developments since then, and outlines opportunities he sees in the high-yield energy bond market today.
Nuclear Decommissioning Trusts: Broadening the Fixed Income Opportunity Set
Nuclear decommissioning trusts (NDTs), the pools of money accumulated over decades used to dismantle nuclear power plants and safely dispose of radioactive materials, allocate about 40% of their assets to fixed income securities.
Biden to Omit Estate-Tax Expansion From Coming Economic Plan
President Joe Biden and his economic team are planning to forgo an expansion of the estate tax in the administration’s coming individual tax-hike proposals, according to people briefed on the plan.
Gold Off to a Slow Start as Central Banks Pivot Toward Digital Currencies
Some major changes could be coming soon to a central bank near you, with an estimated 90% of them at some stage of developing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
Governments Want You to Buy Green. Ignore Them at Your Peril
Investors betting against green trades are going up against the world’s most powerful governments.
The Sugar High Economy
Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it’s going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get?
Economic Commentary: Worker Retraining, India's Second Wave, Evidence of Recovery
Human capital needs renewal; COVID-19 sweeps through India again, while the U.S. economy springs back to life.
Quantifying the Tax Benefit of Retirement Accounts for Better Client Decisions (Part 2)
This article demonstrates why the conventional wisdom of “stocks in taxable, bonds in tax advantaged” is not reliable.
”Green” Stocks Outperformed “Brown” Ones
New research shows that, since 2010, “green” stocks – those of companies with a low carbon footprint – have outperformed “brown” stocks. That may have been caused by increased demand from investors pursuing an ESG mandate, which means the effect is temporary and brown stocks now have higher expected returns.
Are Central Bank Digital Currencies the Future of Money?
More than 60 central banks right now are believed to be exploring the idea of digital currencies, including retail tokens that would be used by citizens as well as wholesale applications for financial institutions.
Stumbling to Scarcity
I think we will probably have a few months of significantly higher inflation. It will fade but meanwhile hurt certain people and industries. It will be like one of those extremes causing bruised knees and volatile markets.
Volume and the Hybrid Nature of the ETF Vehicle
Investors choose particular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for many reasons, but volume and liquidity are often important considerations.
Fat Valuations and Tech Stocks Seen as at Risk in Biden Tax Plan
Wall Street got its stimulus. Now it’s hearing about the bill.
The Winners and Losers of the American Jobs Plan
Infrastructure is the backbone of any healthy economy, and America’s is in desperate need of refurbishment and investment.
On My Mind: A Tale of Two Recoveries
While a global recovery has now become the base case for financial markets, differences between countries and regions on the path toward normalcy are significant and seem set to widen.
Solid Fundamentals but Questions Remain – Equity Outlook, Second Quarter
Despite a volatile first quarter, economic fundamentals appear to be improving. We are constructive on the equity market in the near-to-medium term, but we are closely monitoring inflation and interest rates.
Leon Cooperman Won’t Attend Elizabeth Warren’s Tax Hearing, But Will Watch It
Leon Cooperman declined an invitation from Senator Elizabeth Warren to testify at a tax hearing.
Pump it Up: Earnings Season Starts Off Strong
Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.
Global Investment Committee Outlook: Continue risk-positive
John Vail of Nikko Asset Management dives into the findings from Nikko’s latest Global Investment Committee meeting.
Minisode - The Latest Developments in Annuities
A key risk, perhaps the most critical risk, retirees face is outliving their money. The only product that provides guaranteed protection against that mortality risk is an annuity. But annuities are complex and offer a variety of features, including tax protection, index participation, caps and floors. Here to help us understand the intricacies of annuities and to talk about the latest product developments is Chris Previti.
Economic Commentary: Corporate Taxes, Labor Market Slack, Chip Shortages
National corporate tax policies need global coordination; U.S. unemployment rates don't tell the full story.
#Fundamentally Speaking: Earnings Optimism Explodes
As markets surge to record highs, analysts are rushing to ratchet up earnings estimates as optimism explodes.
When Busy Becomes a Barrier
How do you stop being busy and constantly multitasking? Imagine if you could gain back 40% of your productivity!
Capturing the Wealth Transfer to the Next Generation
You cannot assume the Gen Xers and Millennials who’re receiving that wealth will automatically turn to you for help managing it.
Quantifying the Tax Benefit of Retirement Accounts for Better Client Decisions (Part 1)
How should clients use tax-advantaged accounts? By quantifying the tax benefits of those accounts, we can refine recommendations on asset location and the traditional-versus-Roth decision.
You Want to Buy More Junk Equities?
How many bad/failed companies are being carried by the forbearance of their private and public creditors and emergency injections of cash from government?
ESG Investing Means Lower Bond Yields
There has been an explosion in academic research on the impact of implementing ESG on the risk and returns of equity portfolios. Research on fixed income, which has received less attention, shows that positive ESG scores correlate with lower yield spreads, decreasing future returns for bond investors.
The Transformational Decade Ahead for the Planning Profession
In 40 years, I’ve never seen as many signs of change in the planning/advisory profession as I see right now.
Tsunami Warning
Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe there’s time to venture out and see what treasure was hidden beneath the waves... or maybe not. Prudence would suggest that we go searching for treasure on higher ground.
Biotech Innovations Remain at Forefront
The first quarter of 2021 was challenging for investors in biotechnology, but Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Managers Evan McCulloch, Wendy Lam and Akiva Felt believe the second half of the year will likely bring welcome tailwinds for the industry.
Descending From the “Easy Policy” Mountain Summit
A year ago it would have been hard to imagine where we’d be sitting today.
Global Economic Outlook: Upward Together
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
The Day the Music Died
Quarterly commentary - Discussion on the historic stock market measures presently in place due to the Fed's largesse.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
The Next Bubble?
Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.
When Tax Deductions Cost Clients Money
How much is a tax deduction worth? Maybe less than your money scripts would have you believe. Here are some common ways that over-emphasizing deductions may reduce your clients’ tax bills but cost them more money than they save.
1Q21 Recap: What a difference one year makes
The S&P 500 is up nearly 80% since March 23, 2020 (COVID bottom). The economic recovery is in full swing, and between stimulus checks, warm weather, and widespread vaccinations recovery momentum is likely to surge this summer, although downside volatility is intensifying.
Which Way is Up?
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
The Debate Over the Next Move in Bonds Has Never Been Fiercer
It isn’t hard these days to find investors trumpeting the demise of the decades-long bull run in Treasuries.
Nobel Economist Warns Against Wealth Tax to Pay for Pandemic
A wealth tax is a bad way to pay off pandemic debts and probably would become permanent if introduced, Nobel Prize-winning economist Angus Deaton said.
Positive ESG Ratings Decrease Returns to Investors
Theory predicts and research has shown that positive ESG scores correlate with a lower cost of capital for companies, lowering the expected return on stocks. New research shows a similar effect in the bond market, with positive ESG scores correlated to smaller credit spreads, decreasing the yield to investors.
A Primer on Employee Stock Option Plans
To compensate, retain and attract employees, many companies issue stock options.
A Proposal to Address Wealth and Health Inequality
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Economic Commentary on Infrastructure: U.S. Proposal, Global Gap, Digital Divide
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.