Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
15 Explanations for the Bubble in Stock Prices
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
An Out-of-Sample Test for Factor-Based Strategies
Factor-based models are often criticized for data mining. One way to address that charge is with “out-of-sample” testing over longer time frames. But that takes time. New research provides an alternative out-of-sample test – using emerging-market bonds.
The Fed’s Blindspot
I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.
Hedge Funds Are Back – Can Allocators Get Hedge Fund Alpha in an ETF?
Heading into 2021, advisors face numerous headwinds: a potential return of inflation, sky high equity prices, possible negative returns on bonds. Yet advisors with retail clients have few good options to protect against these risks, and many that embraced alternative mutual funds and ETFs have been disappointed with low returns, high fees and large drawdowns.
The questions advisors are asking today is:
How can retail investors gain exposure to leading hedge funds yet with the client-friendly features of an ETF? Given the difficulties for many hedge funds in the 2010s, will hedge funds will return to the Golden Age of the 2000s, when they generated alpha through two bear markets?
Minisode: The Early-Stage Megatrends that Will Drive Outsized Returns
The new year brings a new set of opportunities for savvy investors who are willing to dig beneath the headlines to uncover lesser-known companies taking advantage of early-stage megatrends. I am here today with the founder of Changebridge Capital, a new company that offers two actively managed ETFs built to capitalize on those early-stage megatrends.