Bringing the Economy Back from Life Support
With recent data showing a coronavirus-driven recession in the United States appears inevitable, the question for many investors is how long it will last. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, weighs in on the differences between this one and other recessionary periods—and whether policymakers can engineer a recovery.
Market Scout – Trusting Our Instruments and Covid-19 Update
Like a pilot relying on a plane’s flight-control instruments during an unfamiliar route with poor visibility, we are depending more than ever on our fact-based, unemotional investment methods. The overwhelming majority of our investments are in companies that we believe are built to withstand harsh economic shocks. Only on the margin have we slightly increased our trading activity.
The Full Extent of Income Support for Impacted U.S. Households Is Impressive
Global equity index futures are trading up about 4% this morning. The coronavirus data over the weekend was less bad. The growth rate in new confirmed cases over the last 24 hours globally was the lowest since March 17—a welcome sign that containment measures are gaining some traction in slowing the spread of the disease.
Navigating the Maze of Models
Once again, no one cares about the economic calendar. There are a few items with recent data – jobless claims, mortgage applications, and Michigan sentiment – but most reports are old news. Everyone is focused on the increase in coronavirus cases and deaths. There are plenty of predictions, each based on model from a reputable source. The variation is wide.
Do the Least Harm
Doctors think differently than economists. They put patients with a potential for brain damage in an artificial coma to stop swelling, and when it stops, they bring them out. This fits with the Hippocratic Oath all doctors take, which states "First, do no harm." The idea is to "limit" damage and then "restart" a more normal body with fewer problems.
Actively Managed Funds Fail When Needed the Most
Advisors had little use for actively managed funds over the recent bull market; index funds did exceptionally well. But just when those actively managed funds were most needed – over the recent market downturn – they failed to protect investors.
Advisors Helping Small-Business Clients Apply For Coronavirus Loans
Advisors around the country are helping small-business clients apply for federal stimulus loans to stay afloat as a result of the economic fallout from the coronavirus. But not many are applying for loans for their own firms – yet.