A $1 Trillion Buying Spree Lets S&P 500 Brush Off Bear Warnings
Market watchers have heard the warnings over and over. Stocks are expensive. Growth is set to slow. Higher taxes and hawkish monetary policy loom as threats. Yet there’s a mighty force pushing back against all the bearish voices: buyers who keep on buying.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,679 for an annualized real return of 14.6%.
Market Cap to GDP: May Buffett Valuation Indicator
With the Q1 GDP Second Estimate and the May close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 209.1%, up from 193.3% the previous quarter.
Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance
Quick take: At the end of May the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 169% above its long-term trend, down slightly from 170% above the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Take the Concentration Risk out of the S&P 500
As the S&P 500 has grown ever more top-heavy, many investors in products tied to the Index have found themselves facing historic levels of concentration risk, the likes of which passive investors have not seen since 1970. The five largest companies have grown to account for nearly 22.0% of the index, potentially leaving investors vulnerable if the companies’ current high valuations fall back to earth. In this session, Invesco will discuss why an equal weight approach to investing in the S&P 500 may provide diversification benefits and reduce concentration risk.
Market Timers in S&P 500 Pay a High Price for Perfect Prescience
About $22 trillion of wealth was created in U.S. stocks, roughly the country’s total annual output. An exchange-traded fund tracking the airline industry has more than doubled. At least 45 companies in the S&P 500 have surged by more than 200%, including Tesla Inc., up almost 700%.