Robo Advisors

Through the first six months of 2021, gunfire killed nearly 10,000 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization.

If there is one experience common to us all during the global pandemic, it is that the spread of COVID-19 around the world caused everyone—young or old, rich or poor, male or female—to reassess our priorities.

Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.

Xi has been trying to balance economic freedom and authoritarian control and it’s not working like it used to. Today we’ll review some recent events that illustrate where Xi went wrong.

Is the retail investor rampage over?

I generally try to avoid political commentaries in Forecasts & Trends, although I never hesitate to make it clear I am a conservative on most issues.

In January, during the market frenzy which saw GameStop Corporation on stock go from approximately $20 to nearly $500 intraday within two weeks, some asked why the company did not capitalize on the demand by issuing shares.

Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.

Far from signaling the return of significant inflation, temporary price increases are exactly what one would expect in a recovery following an economic shutdown.

If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem.

Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.

The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.

We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.

Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.

We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.

Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.

Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.

2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.

The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles. They are also aware that most policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. Such leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.

For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”

The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.

The forceful rise of the markets from March depths continued in the fourth quarter. After stalling out in early Fall, market participants floored the accelerator in November with vaccine approval in tow and the election overhang in the rearview.

“Maybe this time is different. Those words, supposedly the most dangerous to utter in the investing realm, came to mind amid the frenzied pops in the highly anticipated initial public offerings recently.” That quote was from Randall Forsyth discussing why the current market mania reminds him of the “Shades of 1999.”

The two Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5 will be among the most important elections in our lifetimes, whether you are a conservative or a liberal. As a result, enormous and unprecedented amounts of outside money are gushing into these runoffs.

My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!

A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.

As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.

History does not repeat, but it rhymes, as Mark Twain observed. As such, we are struck by the eerie and dangerous parallels between today’s markets and the markets back in 1999. Back then, Value investing and Value managers were under the gun for having underperformed their Growth brethren for too long.

We are earlier than usual this month because of the upcoming presidential election. See why a US constitutional crisis could unfold in the days and weeks to come if Trump delivers on his earlier ‘promise’ not to accept the outcome, should he lose on the 3rd November.

Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.

To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.

The amount of outstanding debt, and the subsequent deficit, has long been a problem in the U.S. For the last two decades, policymakers have made annual promises for more substantial economic growth. Yet with each passing year, growth rates weaken, and economic prosperity worsens.

This “exodus,” as some are already calling it, may end up being among the biggest in U.S. history, or at least the biggest since the 1950s and 60s. A record 27.4 percent of homebuyers sought to move out of their metro areas in the second quarter, according to Redfin data.

We’ll be okay, but we’ll have problems first. Both can be true; the difference is in the timing. It’s important to keep this straight in our minds. Extreme things can happen, for either good or bad, but they don’t last forever. We have to maintain mental balance between the extremes.

We have a big economic calendar with reports on inflation, small business optimism, retail sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. I expect the data to continue occupation of the back seat.

Several months into the Covid-19 era, Howard Marks takes a step back to consider the global health crisis, the economic fallout and the U.S.’s response to date. He also shines light on how one might – or might not – view the current circumstances in the framework of a market cycle.

What we’re seeing in our big cities today is unprecedented. No one knows where this violence is headed, how to stop it, or when it will end. We’ve turned a new corner in our country, and I don’t think anyone knows for sure where it will lead us. It is certainly not a good direction.