Robo Advisors

Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.

Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.

2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.

The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles. They are also aware that most policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. Such leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.

For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”

The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.

The forceful rise of the markets from March depths continued in the fourth quarter. After stalling out in early Fall, market participants floored the accelerator in November with vaccine approval in tow and the election overhang in the rearview.

“Maybe this time is different. Those words, supposedly the most dangerous to utter in the investing realm, came to mind amid the frenzied pops in the highly anticipated initial public offerings recently.” That quote was from Randall Forsyth discussing why the current market mania reminds him of the “Shades of 1999.”

The two Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5 will be among the most important elections in our lifetimes, whether you are a conservative or a liberal. As a result, enormous and unprecedented amounts of outside money are gushing into these runoffs.

My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!

A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.

As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.

History does not repeat, but it rhymes, as Mark Twain observed. As such, we are struck by the eerie and dangerous parallels between today’s markets and the markets back in 1999. Back then, Value investing and Value managers were under the gun for having underperformed their Growth brethren for too long.

We are earlier than usual this month because of the upcoming presidential election. See why a US constitutional crisis could unfold in the days and weeks to come if Trump delivers on his earlier ‘promise’ not to accept the outcome, should he lose on the 3rd November.

Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.

To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.

The amount of outstanding debt, and the subsequent deficit, has long been a problem in the U.S. For the last two decades, policymakers have made annual promises for more substantial economic growth. Yet with each passing year, growth rates weaken, and economic prosperity worsens.

This “exodus,” as some are already calling it, may end up being among the biggest in U.S. history, or at least the biggest since the 1950s and 60s. A record 27.4 percent of homebuyers sought to move out of their metro areas in the second quarter, according to Redfin data.

We’ll be okay, but we’ll have problems first. Both can be true; the difference is in the timing. It’s important to keep this straight in our minds. Extreme things can happen, for either good or bad, but they don’t last forever. We have to maintain mental balance between the extremes.

We have a big economic calendar with reports on inflation, small business optimism, retail sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. I expect the data to continue occupation of the back seat.

Several months into the Covid-19 era, Howard Marks takes a step back to consider the global health crisis, the economic fallout and the U.S.’s response to date. He also shines light on how one might – or might not – view the current circumstances in the framework of a market cycle.

What we’re seeing in our big cities today is unprecedented. No one knows where this violence is headed, how to stop it, or when it will end. We’ve turned a new corner in our country, and I don’t think anyone knows for sure where it will lead us. It is certainly not a good direction.

In this week’s “Technically Speaking,” the “Golden Cross” arrives, but are the bulls safe? As noted two weeks ago, is the 50/200 dma crossover is historically bullish for equities. However, with markets facing one of the worst earnings declines on record, could overly exuberant investors be walking into a trap?

With markets extremely difficult and volatile as we work through COVID-19, we thought it would be good to review important parts of our investment discipline. One way to do that is to consider stocks we found via our eight criteria for stock selection and did not keep long enough to get to their ultimate rewards.

Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that in the tug-of-war between the considerable economic damage stemming from the coronavirus and subsequent lockdowns, and the fiscal and monetary policy responses put in place, the latter factor is being underestimated by markets. Further, the instruments used by investors in previous years won’t be what’s required for the time ahead.

The common characterization of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong. Instead, the most recent spike in tensions between the two countries – the second time this has happened since US President Donald Trump took office in 2016 – is primarily motivated by political considerations ahead of the November US presidential election.

Read Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.

The selloff this week was “perfectly normal,” according to the math. Find out why it makes sense to have a long-term investment horizon.

The economic calendar is packed with important reports. In normal times we would all be very interested, but the times are far from normal. Several of the reports emphasize April data, the first full impacts of the pandemic and shutdowns.

What is the value of a financial advisor in 2020? We believe financial advisors have never been more valuable than they are right now. This annual Value of an Advisor study quantifies that dedication and the resulting benefit.

The economic calendar includes several important releases, but few reflect the COVID19 effects. Everyone knows the economic news is dismal. Just how dismal does not seem to matter.

Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.

Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.

Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.

We have a full economic calendar. Only the FOMC decision will get major market attention. Initial jobless claims provide a post-virus look at the job market. Housing data remains interesting. Despite this, the media focus will remain on the coronavirus crisis.

Many questions – and few answers – surround the coronavirus epidemic and its implications for financial markets. Read Howard Marks’s latest memo, in which he shares his own questions, guesses, observations and inferences to help make sense of the potential impact of the virus on global economies and markets.

With the markets shell shocked by of the worst weeks on record, analysts are split on whether investors are simply overreacting to the coronavirus epidemic or if we are confronting an actual existential threat to the global economy.