The 2020 Survey of the Top 50 Hedge Funds
The value of this year’s annual hedge fund performance survey was turned on its head when a pandemic shut down the global economy and sent securities plummeting. But a deeper look at consistently performing funds revealed managers that as a group have largely been able to weather the storm better than the market and their peers.
Five Reasons EM Are More Resilient Than in the Past
In a new white paper, the GMO Emerging Markets Equity Team argues that Emerging Markets in aggregate are more resilient today than in prior periods, an important consideration as investors evaluate the rebound the asset class has experienced since late March.
U.S. Workforce: May 2020 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Thursday's Employment Report for June. The unemployment fell to 11.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 4.8M.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Thursday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,442 for an annualized real return of 8.72%.
The Death Of Fundamentals & The Future Of Low Returns
Over the last quarter, the “Death of Fundamentals” has become apparent as investors ignore earnings to chase market momentum. However, throughout history, such large divergences between fundamentals and price have resulted in low future returns. This time is unlikely to be different.
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
Record June Jobs, But The Recession May Not Be Over
For the second month in a row, the Labor Department reported last week that the economy added a record number of new jobs in June, vastly outpacing forecasters’ pre-report estimates. This far better than expected report is leading many economists to refigure their growth forecasts higher for the second half of this year.