Retirement

Like the three little pigs building their houses, financial advisors have many choices of how they will build their books of business. Many of the most successful advisors embrace fee-only wealth management. In this blog post, we put some numbers to these theories.

We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include Friday's Employment Report for January. The unemployment rose to 3.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 225K.

What if I told you that you could create one (just one!) blog post to drive your entire inbound marketing strategy?

Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.

If lawmakers in several states and cities have their way, the traditional security deposit for housing rentals may become a relic of the past.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk? At present, the ratio for Continued Claims has been trending down.

In today’s society people are choosing to have fewer children, and delaying having children at all into later, less fertile years. These two factors have driven fertility rates below replacement level in most of the world, but a crucial third factor gets little attention and is having a profound impact on fertility: toxicity. The economic and social ramifications will be severe.

Annuities can reduce the risk of running out of money in retirement, but they protect against this risk in different ways. I’ll compare retirement outcomes of SPIAs to GLWBs to understand the key product differences.

In the President’s “State of the Union Address” on Tuesday, he used the podium to talk up the achievements in the economy and the markets. While it certainly is a laundry list of items he can claim credit for, it is the claim of record-high stock prices that undermines the rest of the story. Let me explain.

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,591 for an annualized real return of 10.17%.

A deep dive into the factors that brought inflation down and are keeping it low.

Ever since I first entered the investment industry circa 1970, I have been confronted with a constant and persistent admonition about the next pending market crash. In those early days I contributed much of the negativity toward stocks to a lingering overhang from the Great Depression...

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. January's 225K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 7K more jobs than previously reported. Annual revisions and changes to household survey data were made. The Investing.com consensus was for 160K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5%.

This morning's employment report for January showed a 225K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 160K. Annual survey data was revised.

Read Harold Evensky's latest newsletter.

The third and final set of year-end updates to the Crestmont Research.

The U.S. Census is a vital research tool; the coronavirus is a vital risk.

You can build the best portfolio for your clients, but if they don’t stay invested, their chances of reaching their goals will be diminished.

These are the investment guidelines our firm uses. We invite you to adapt it and share it with your clients.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concluded their January “FOMC” meeting and released their statement. Overall, there was not much to get excited about, as it was virtually the same statement they released at the last meeting. However, Jerome Powell made a comment which caught our attention...

Two topics seemed to dominate at this year’s Inside ETFs conference: the rise of ESG investing, and the emergence of so-called “nontransparent” ETFs. Both promise some big changes to financial markets.

As you will see today, sometimes I get it really, badly, completely wrong. Thankfully, not too often.

With the release of this morning's report on December Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.15% month-over-month change in disposable income was reduced to -0.12% when we adjust for inflation. This is down from last month's 0.38% nominal and 0.28% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 3.12% nominal and 1.49% real.

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.63% and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down fractionally at 0.01%. The real number is up 1.7% year-over-year.

As much as we all crave it, asking for another year of continued economic growth and positive equity returns in 2020 may be too much.

What can advisors learn from institutional investors? Try these four key moves.

What if you rid your presentations of financial jargon, history lessons of the markets and the dreaded PowerPoint slides?

The problem isn’t that market timing never works. The problem is that it works just enough to give you hope, but not enough to improve performance over the long-term.

Much has been written on measuring equity market valuations – but precious little on developing effective strategies to capitalize on the imbalances.

Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that eight major market influences are likely to dominate the investment environment in the year ahead and that the proper portfolio mix will be instrumental in delivering a successful outcome.

Ten charts illustrate the macroeconomic trends most likely to shape Fed policy and investment performance in 2020 and beyond.

Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.
Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.
Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.

The Federal Reserve doesn’t see the inflation others notice. Their data says inflation isn’t a problem, so they ignore indications otherwise. We see this in their policy decisions. And it’s not just the Fed; other central banks, Wall Street analysts, economists, and politicians have the same affliction.

Private credit relies less on broad market trends and more on the strength of each specific investment. For individuals facing retirement, institutions looking to satisfy long-term pension liabilities or even private investors looking for alternative investments, it offers high current income, low correlations with public markets and lower default risks than yield spreads would imply.

Advisors can provide tax-planning services to grow their client base and provide more value to the people who trust them with their hard-earned money.

Maybe you don’t have a goals-based tracking and reporting system, but you want to have illustrations to show whether a client is on track (or not) to meet their goals.

Ultimately, investors will awaken to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades.

A strong economy will help U.S. consumers meet their financial resolutions in the new year, while residents of France and Australia have bigger worries.

Good things are happening, too, and will keep happening as we move through the 2020s. Occasionally I like to note them, and that’s what we will do today.

Now is the season for forecasting as one decade turns into the next. Pundits and market prognosticators too often treat nowcasts as true market forecasts, which can be very dangerous for investors’ financial health. Our forecasts for the decade ahead rely on empirically driven quantitative models.

Emerging markets ended 2019 on a high note, but can the momentum continue? Our emerging markets equity team weighs in, highlighting the market news and events it has an eye on.

A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.

Forget those fears of a global “Population Bomb” and worldwide famine which were made popular several decades ago. While the world’s population is still growing, birth rates in most developed nations are falling, including the United States.

A new decade, seismic shifts and the importance of diversification.

With markets continuing their upward trajectory, it is easy to assume central banks are in control and things are going well. Some insights from how people interact with their environment in traffic reveal a very different perspective, however.

Let’s talk about a few large “surprise” Medicare-related expenses that your clients may not know about.

Awareness has become widespread that incomes before taxes of the bottom half – or more – of the American population have stagnated in the last 40 years, while incomes at the top rungs have soared. A new book shows that the divide is even greater after taxes.

With simmering trade tensions, sputtering growth worldwide and a historically long, but slow, U.S. economic expansion, investors will have to brace themselves for a challenging investment environment in 2020. Change, adaptability and diversification are the key words. Here are steps you can take early in 2020 to position your investment program well for the rest of the year.

Comparison-created unhappiness and insecurity is pervasive, judging from the amount of spam touting everything from weight-loss to plastic surgery. The basic principle seems to be that whatever we have is enough, until we see someone else who has more. Whatever the reason, comparison in financial markets can lead to remarkably bad decisions.

This is the year-end letter I sent to our clients. Feel free to adapt it for your own use.

Will 2020 be more of the same? Our teams are encouraged by differences they see in the new year; but they remain alert for unexpected downturns.

With this article I am going to present several ways that investors, especially retired investors, can beat the market without fail. However, what I will be presenting may not be what you are expecting, particularly if you have a narrow notion of what beating the market means.

A few months ago, we published a paper called Institutional investor best practice by 2025. In this paper, we addressed how investors will need to fundamentally change how they approach capturing opportunities, mitigating risks and managing costs within their investment portfolios to set themselves up for success in 2025 and beyond.

Expect a steeper yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should be “defensive” with respect to long-term bonds. Gold will go up, inflation will be subdued, there is a 30% to 35% chance of recession and – his “highest conviction” idea – the dollar will weaken. His most surprising prediction was who will be the Democratic nominee.

Our designated successor is not at all like his father, who founded our firm. He is arrogant, does not listen, seems disinterested in the investment side of our business and has already alienated one client by asking inappropriate questions.

The Ten Surprises of 2019 worked out plenty well. While we don't go through this process with the objective of getting a high score, knowing that you have been able to anticipate some of the generally unexpected events that are going to influence the financial markets during the coming year is gratifying.

Progress on the trade front lifted the markets in Q4 but now comes the hard part.

Let’s walk through the first 20 years of the new millennium and the lessons for the next 20 years.

DC plan sponsors are increasingly using TDFs that blend active and passive strategies to seek lower fees and enhanced alpha potential.

Seven things to know about the new U.S. retirement legislation.

The 2020 Decade: Valuations & The Destiny Of Low Returns. As we enter into a new decade, investors have become complacency with high rates of return on stocks. However, what is the likelihood the next decade will deliver the same.

Correct these five common advisor marketing mistakes in 2020. Make it your best year ever and stay true to those resolutions.

A sweeping piece of legislation affecting how individuals save and invest for their retirement, known as the “SECURE Act,” has recently been signed into law. Our investment professionals talk about the implications of the Act, and how it can enhance the retirement security of millions of Americans. And, they outline some changes in the legislation that also affect college savings plans.

The Grinch who stole Christmas is alive and well this year – in the U.S. Congress. Our representatives and senators passed a bill that negatively affects the middle and working class by changing the rules of passing an IRA to one’s heirs.

One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. We’ve certainly observed this sort of selectivity during the past year. The market advance in 2019 fully recovered the market losses of late-2018, fueled by a wholesale reversal of Fed policy, hopes for a “phase one” trade deal, and as noted below, a bit of confusion about what actually constitutes “quantitative easing.”

The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.

Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. We’ve already posted the 10 most-widely read articles for the past year. Below are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading…

As the year winds to a close, take a look back with us at our top ten favorite blog posts of the year—the thought leadership pieces that sparked the highest levels of engagement among our readers.

To celebrate another great year of doing the work I do with my firm’s valued clients, this week’s column is devoted to resolutions I hope you are able to make and keep in your businesses.

As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. In decreasing order, based on the number of unique readers, those are…

Like many financial planners, I hope for the day when we are accorded the same professional stature as lawyers and accountants. But the CFP Board should not be put at the helm of that future profession. That would harm consumers and erode the public trust we have worked so hard to engender.

This year marked the introduction of our Gaining Perspective podcast. Here are the 10 most listened to episodes of 2019, starting with the most popular podcast of the year.

Here’s my “wish list” for reforms in 2020, acknowledging that some of these actions may take years, or even decades, to accomplish.