U.S. and China Sign a Deal, Inequality Eludes Measurement, Canada Leads with Fiscal Policy
Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.
Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.
Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.
Nose Blind to Inflation
The Federal Reserve doesn’t see the inflation others notice. Their data says inflation isn’t a problem, so they ignore indications otherwise. We see this in their policy decisions. And it’s not just the Fed; other central banks, Wall Street analysts, economists, and politicians have the same affliction.
The Need for Private Credit
Private credit relies less on broad market trends and more on the strength of each specific investment. For individuals facing retirement, institutions looking to satisfy long-term pension liabilities or even private investors looking for alternative investments, it offers high current income, low correlations with public markets and lower default risks than yield spreads would imply.
U.S. Consumer Outlook, Pension Protests in France, and Australia’s Wildfire
A strong economy will help U.S. consumers meet their financial resolutions in the new year, while residents of France and Australia have bigger worries.
Forecasts or Nowcasts? What’s on the Horizon for the 2020s
Now is the season for forecasting as one decade turns into the next. Pundits and market prognosticators too often treat nowcasts as true market forecasts, which can be very dangerous for investors’ financial health. Our forecasts for the decade ahead rely on empirically driven quantitative models.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: December Real Retail Sales
Month-over-month nominal sales in December increased by 0.3% (0.33% to two decimal points). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.1% (0.12% to two decimal points).
US Birth Rate Falls 4th Straight Year - Should We Worry?
Forget those fears of a global “Population Bomb” and worldwide famine which were made popular several decades ago. While the world’s population is still growing, birth rates in most developed nations are falling, including the United States.