As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
Clients face three big risks in retirement from the sequence of returns, volatility and asset shortfalls. Michael Hirthler, the founder and chief investment officer at Pennsylvania-based Jacobi Capital Management, explained to me how he uses the Big Picture app to explain those risks to his clients.
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
Even the most promising future can change drastically by a life-threatening event. A healthy individual may require around-the-clock care and supervision after an accident, creating the need to solve complex financial planning problems.
Our positive 2021 economic outlook, combined with better-than-expected company fundamentals, supports strong credit performance and spreads.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in January fell 0.14% and is down 0.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down 0.48%. The real number is down 2.0% year-over-year.
With the release of this morning's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 11.33% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 10.95% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.55% nominal and 0.18% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 14.38% nominal and 12.74% real. Increases can be attributed to the second round of funds distributions through the CARES Act.
Today’s low bond yields and high equity valuations have led many to jettison the traditional 4% initial safe-withdrawal rate assumption. But I will show that the optimal “safe” withdrawal rate depends considerably on the retiree.
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 730K new claims, down 111K from the previous week's downwardly revised figure, was much better than the Investing.com forecast of 838K.
Continuing our series, Going Independent, we want to provide those considering going out on their own with an easy-to-follow checklist of everything you need to do to form your own RIA.
Increased marital stress is highlighting the financial challenges divorce brings, especially to women.
I will break down the levels of a standard marketing funnel and provide specific steps that financial advisors can take to create their own.
Let’s face it, estate planning tends to be boring, time-consuming, and complex. And with the current estate tax exclusion, some financial professionals feel estate planning impacts fewer and fewer people. Truth be told, estate planning isn’t just for the wealthy – it impacts every client you have. This presentation and the accompanying materials are designed to provide you with fundamental knowledge of must-know estate planning concepts.
Political change, continued fiscal support will drive municipal markets in 2021, although outcomes are likely to vary.
Investment managers produce annual equity return forecasts, and the consensus is much more pessimistic than that of academics. I’ll take a closer look at why the forecasts are so different and the implications for advisors working with clients.
It doesn’t take Black History Month to remind our listeners of the lack of diversity in the advisory profession. Of the countless conferences I’ve attended – when it was possible to attend such conferences – the overwhelming majority of attendees were like me: white, male and middle aged. We’ve seen a number of efforts to address this lack of diversity, particularly in the last year in light of the tragic events that have particularly affected people of color. Here to talk with me today is someone at the forefront of those efforts within the advisory profession.
Month-over-month nominal sales in January increased by 5.3%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 5%.
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
The object of the game was to get to the finish line first and then become the leader the next round. The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.
How can you help a family foundation plan for rapid growth in a way that is consistent with their wealth management objectives?
Are proposed fiscal policies and student debt forgiveness too much of a good thing?
The Financial Planning Association, or FPA, is the principal membership organization for CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals and those who support the financial planning process. I am joined today by the two leaders of the FPA and a veteran observer of the financial planning profession. I am looking forward to a spirited discussion about the role that the FPA will play among financial planners, the challenges it faces and how my guests plan to overcome those challenges.
With U.S. equity valuations very rich by historical standards, many – including Jeremy Grantham, Rob Arnott and Vanguard – are predicting emerging markets to excel. I’ll examine the case and give my thoughts on how to invest in emerging markets.
We've updated this series to include the January release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,310, down 5.1% from 45-plus years ago.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.
When there's drama in the stock market, I often learn about it at the gym. Case in point: the recent headline-grabbing hullabaloo about GameStop and Reddit.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for January. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 49K.
Relative value currently favors floating-rate loans over high-yield bonds.
As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
The fundamental concept that you must understand about LinkedIn is this: It is not a meritocracy, it’s an attention-getting contest.
The idea is to cut college costs by having an open mind and being willing to make some personal sacrifices.
The Financial Planning Association (FPA) president, Skip Schweiss, wants planners and consumers to know financial planning is not yet a profession. He believes fervently it should be and wants to help get it there. Who will listen?
Americans used to fund their retirement through corporate pension plans. But over the last 50 years, the burden of saving has fallen on the employees, and providing a framework for retirement savings has become the responsibility of American businesses. One of the first questions asked by a prospective employee is what type of 401(k) or other plans a company offers. Providing a well-designed plan at a reasonable expense is especially challenging for small companies. My guest today, Chad Parks, provides solutions to that problem.
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. January's 49K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 72K fewer jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 50K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to remain at 6.7%.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Powerful demographic trends will cause higher inflation and interest rates, and a reduction in inequality as labor reclaims its bargaining power in the global economy.
This morning's employment report for January showed a 49K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 50K jobs added.
The COVID-19 crisis opened up cracks in the muni market, but we don’t expect those cracks to alter the reality that municipal bonds can be a relatively conservative investment option. Many municipalities are under stress, but that’s not a reason to avoid munis, in our view.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,690 for an annualized real return of 14.63%.
Your clients have one last thing to check off on their retirement checklist: Medicare enrollment. Here is how they can de-stress the process.
The coronavirus pushed three dozen municipal-debt issues for senior living communities into default last year and another five have already missed payments in 2021, sowing distress in one of the nation’s safest bond markets.
Knowing if you’re ready to launch your own RIA is a big decision. For me, these four factors guided me to realize I was ready to break out on my own.
The overlords of clickbait said I need to make this a highly partisan article to maximize readership.
In a blow to the Reddit crowd taking on the Wall Street elite, the broader hedge fund industry lives to fight another day for now following a week of stock drama.
When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.
The argument that short sellers can capitalize on high-profile bad news is invalid.
Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.”
Although many companies in consumer-oriented industries continue to struggle, others have benefitted from society’s need to socially distance. Discussed here are five stocks that have successfully accelerated digital adoption through the pandemic along with three in hard-hit categories poised to thrive once coronavirus inoculations become widespread.
Changes in government inevitably bring new priorities and policies, one being the area of taxes. Fiduciary Trust International Managing Director Craig Richards examines possible tax implications for individuals under President Joe Biden’s new administration.
A majority of the Senate (including two Democrats) has agreed to forego efforts to eliminate the filibuster during the Congressional term ending December 2022.
Over the last dozen years, investors holding the classic US 60/40 portfolio were substantially better off than their diversified peers, yet now is not the time to abandon diversification and diversifying asset classes. We believe it is imprudent to trust that escalation in valuations will continue unabated into the next decade...
The following three short stories, in addition to proper income planning, will lead clients to a happier and more fulfilling retirement.
Here’s how to avoid being misunderstood by a prospect or client.
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
I’m going to help you get your financial advisory firm’s content strategy off the ground with a few basic steps.
If you could send a one-line email and get a prospect’s attention, how would you do it?
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
There is no easy answer for income investors whose expectations and behaviors need to be adjusted accordingly.
The illusion of surging savings rates or the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates the real economic problems and fosters the belief that monetary policies are working. They aren’t.
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
Their decisions in the coming months could have an impact on the markets and investors.
A holistic LDI portfolio may provide a superior liability hedge.
We can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would all win the lottery. They don’t, we can’t, and we aren’t going to try. However, this doesn’t stop the annual parade of Wall Street analysts from putting out forecasts on the S&P 500.
Here’s how to tell if your website is stuck in the past and, if it is, how to position it for success.
Donald Trump departs Washington on Wednesday with Americans more politically divided and more likely to be out of work than when he arrived, while awaiting trial for his second impeachment -- an ignominious end to one of the most turbulent presidencies in American history.
This enormous stimulus plan will have numerous effects on the economy, including the likely loss of millions of jobs, which the media doesn’t report, so that’s what we’ll talk about today.
2021 market outlook from BlackRock's municipal bond team.
The B corp certification, which started in 2006, recognizes for-profit companies that use business as a force for good.
Rescues by the Federal Reserve and aggressive monetary policies have helped stock and bond investors, but the degree of money printing will be paid for by future generations.
Post-pandemic financial planning will reward advisors who illustrate the relationship between money and happiness to their clients.
Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
PIMCO’s “Income to Outcome” framework offers strategies to navigate retirement’s stumbling blocks.
If Gary Gensler becomes the SEC chairperson, it will harken back to the SEC’s origins and its first chairman, Joseph P. Kennedy.
The trouble with bubbles is they prey on human weakness. They are also high impact investment events.
To persuade someone to do something, you have to show them the positive opposite of what they are doing by using this one word.
This is the second in my series about what I’d like to see more and less of in 2021.
The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia.
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
I’ll focus on rebalancing versus buy-and-hold with a focus on retirement withdrawals.
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.
LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.
If your client meetings look, sound, or feel a little similar to a sales call, you’re de-credentialing yourself and creating unnecessary barriers to developing trust.
We have a lot to reflect on this year. Here’s what I’d like to see more and less of in 2021.
Retirement
As Retirement Income Needs Grow, DC Plan Sponsors Weigh Solutions
As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
How to Illustrate Planning Risks to Clients
Clients face three big risks in retirement from the sequence of returns, volatility and asset shortfalls. Michael Hirthler, the founder and chief investment officer at Pennsylvania-based Jacobi Capital Management, explained to me how he uses the Big Picture app to explain those risks to his clients.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
He May Never Walk Again
Even the most promising future can change drastically by a life-threatening event. A healthy individual may require around-the-clock care and supervision after an accident, creating the need to solve complex financial planning problems.
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook - First Quarter 2021
Our positive 2021 economic outlook, combined with better-than-expected company fundamentals, supports strong credit performance and spreads.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in January
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in January fell 0.14% and is down 0.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was down 0.48%. The real number is down 2.0% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in January, CARES Act 2.0
With the release of this morning's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 11.33% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 10.95% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.55% nominal and 0.18% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 14.38% nominal and 12.74% real. Increases can be attributed to the second round of funds distributions through the CARES Act.
Retirement Planning in the Post-4% World
Today’s low bond yields and high equity valuations have led many to jettison the traditional 4% initial safe-withdrawal rate assumption. But I will show that the optimal “safe” withdrawal rate depends considerably on the retiree.
What the Pandemic Taught Us About Target Date Funds
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 111K, Beats Forecast
This morning's seasonally adjusted 730K new claims, down 111K from the previous week's downwardly revised figure, was much better than the Investing.com forecast of 838K.
Going Independent: A Guided Checklist to Forming Your Own RIA
Continuing our series, Going Independent, we want to provide those considering going out on their own with an easy-to-follow checklist of everything you need to do to form your own RIA.
The Pandemic Has Exposed the Gap in Women’s Financial Needs
Increased marital stress is highlighting the financial challenges divorce brings, especially to women.
A Financial Advisor's Guide to Creating a Marketing Funnel
I will break down the levels of a standard marketing funnel and provide specific steps that financial advisors can take to create their own.
Financial Professionals Guide to Estate Planning
Let’s face it, estate planning tends to be boring, time-consuming, and complex. And with the current estate tax exclusion, some financial professionals feel estate planning impacts fewer and fewer people. Truth be told, estate planning isn’t just for the wealthy – it impacts every client you have. This presentation and the accompanying materials are designed to provide you with fundamental knowledge of must-know estate planning concepts.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Recovering at Different Speeds
Political change, continued fiscal support will drive municipal markets in 2021, although outcomes are likely to vary.
Are Equity Return Forecasts Too Pessimistic?
Investment managers produce annual equity return forecasts, and the consensus is much more pessimistic than that of academics. I’ll take a closer look at why the forecasts are so different and the implications for advisors working with clients.
Minisode - Overcoming the Diversity Challenge in the Advisory Profession
It doesn’t take Black History Month to remind our listeners of the lack of diversity in the advisory profession. Of the countless conferences I’ve attended – when it was possible to attend such conferences – the overwhelming majority of attendees were like me: white, male and middle aged. We’ve seen a number of efforts to address this lack of diversity, particularly in the last year in light of the tragic events that have particularly affected people of color. Here to talk with me today is someone at the forefront of those efforts within the advisory profession.
The Big Four: January Real Retail Sales Up 5.3%
Month-over-month nominal sales in January increased by 5.3%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 5%.
15 Explanations for the Bubble in Stock Prices
I offer 15 explanations for the bubble in stock prices and a single explanation for the one in bond prices. Those bubbles could deflate for any of 10 reasons I also identify, severely diminishing the retirement savings of baby boomers.
Simon Says
The object of the game was to get to the finish line first and then become the leader the next round. The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.
Helping Clients Plan for Growth in Their Private Foundations
How can you help a family foundation plan for rapid growth in a way that is consistent with their wealth management objectives?
Student Loan Forgiveness, Super-Sized Stimulus, China-Australia Trade Tensions
Are proposed fiscal policies and student debt forgiveness too much of a good thing?
The Future of the Financial Planning Association
The Financial Planning Association, or FPA, is the principal membership organization for CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals and those who support the financial planning process. I am joined today by the two leaders of the FPA and a veteran observer of the financial planning profession. I am looking forward to a spirited discussion about the role that the FPA will play among financial planners, the challenges it faces and how my guests plan to overcome those challenges.
The Case for Emerging Markets
With U.S. equity valuations very rich by historical standards, many – including Jeremy Grantham, Rob Arnott and Vanguard – are predicting emerging markets to excel. I’ll examine the case and give my thoughts on how to invest in emerging markets.
Middle-Class Wages in January 2021: Where Are We Now?
We've updated this series to include the January release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,310, down 5.1% from 45-plus years ago.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
Components of the CPI: January 2021
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Fed’s Blindspot
I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.
How to Explain GameStop to Your Clients
When there's drama in the stock market, I often learn about it at the gym. Case in point: the recent headline-grabbing hullabaloo about GameStop and Reddit.
U.S. Workforce: January 2021 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for January. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.3%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 49K.
Loans or Bonds?
Relative value currently favors floating-rate loans over high-yield bonds.
Lesson Learned? Takeaways From the GameStop Saga
As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.
Vexing Today’s Convex Pricing Behavior
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
How I Cracked the Code Behind LinkedIn's Algorithms
The fundamental concept that you must understand about LinkedIn is this: It is not a meritocracy, it’s an attention-getting contest.
College Success by Cutting Costs
The idea is to cut college costs by having an open mind and being willing to make some personal sacrifices.
Is Financial Planning a Profession? Does it Matter?
The Financial Planning Association (FPA) president, Skip Schweiss, wants planners and consumers to know financial planning is not yet a profession. He believes fervently it should be and wants to help get it there. Who will listen?
How Advisors Can Help Small Companies Provide Retirement Plans
Americans used to fund their retirement through corporate pension plans. But over the last 50 years, the burden of saving has fallen on the employees, and providing a framework for retirement savings has become the responsibility of American businesses. One of the first questions asked by a prospective employee is what type of 401(k) or other plans a company offers. Providing a well-designed plan at a reasonable expense is especially challenging for small companies. My guest today, Chad Parks, provides solutions to that problem.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: January Employment
This commentary has been updated to include Friday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. January's 49K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 72K fewer jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 50K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to remain at 6.7%.
FT Employment at Highest Percentage of Total Employed
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Will Demographic Trends Drive Higher Inflation and Interest Rates?
Powerful demographic trends will cause higher inflation and interest rates, and a reduction in inequality as labor reclaims its bargaining power in the global economy.
January Jobs Report: 49K New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Down to 6.3%
This morning's employment report for January showed a 49K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 50K jobs added.
Why Widespread Muni Defaults Are Unlikely to Happen
The COVID-19 crisis opened up cracks in the muni market, but we don’t expect those cracks to alter the reality that municipal bonds can be a relatively conservative investment option. Many municipalities are under stress, but that’s not a reason to avoid munis, in our view.
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,690 for an annualized real return of 14.63%.
Five Tips to De-Stress the Entree into Medicare
Your clients have one last thing to check off on their retirement checklist: Medicare enrollment. Here is how they can de-stress the process.
New Year Brings No Respite to Muni Senior Living Sector Turmoil
The coronavirus pushed three dozen municipal-debt issues for senior living communities into default last year and another five have already missed payments in 2021, sowing distress in one of the nation’s safest bond markets.
4 Ways to Tell if You’re Ready to Launch Your Own RIA
Knowing if you’re ready to launch your own RIA is a big decision. For me, these four factors guided me to realize I was ready to break out on my own.
Ask Brad: Transitioning to the RIA Model Under the Biden Administration
The overlords of clickbait said I need to make this a highly partisan article to maximize readership.
Hedge Funds Live to Fight Another Day After Reddit Mayhem
In a blow to the Reddit crowd taking on the Wall Street elite, the broader hedge fund industry lives to fight another day for now following a week of stock drama.
Your Portfolio May Be Less Diversified Than You Think
When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.
Who Gets Harmed When You Ban Short Selling?
The argument that short sellers can capitalize on high-profile bad news is invalid.
Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors
Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.”
Disruptive Companies Thriving in the Time of COVID
Although many companies in consumer-oriented industries continue to struggle, others have benefitted from society’s need to socially distance. Discussed here are five stocks that have successfully accelerated digital adoption through the pandemic along with three in hard-hit categories poised to thrive once coronavirus inoculations become widespread.
A Taxing Subject: Tax Implications for US Investors Under Biden
Changes in government inevitably bring new priorities and policies, one being the area of taxes. Fiduciary Trust International Managing Director Craig Richards examines possible tax implications for individuals under President Joe Biden’s new administration.
The Filibuster and the 2021 Legislative Agenda
A majority of the Senate (including two Democrats) has agreed to forego efforts to eliminate the filibuster during the Congressional term ending December 2022.
Is Diversification Dead?
Over the last dozen years, investors holding the classic US 60/40 portfolio were substantially better off than their diversified peers, yet now is not the time to abandon diversification and diversifying asset classes. We believe it is imprudent to trust that escalation in valuations will continue unabated into the next decade...
Three Things to Tell Your Clients About Retirement
The following three short stories, in addition to proper income planning, will lead clients to a happier and more fulfilling retirement.
Your Prospects Have a Superpower
Here’s how to avoid being misunderstood by a prospect or client.
The Best and Worst Investment (and other) Books of 2020
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
How to Develop a Content Strategy
I’m going to help you get your financial advisory firm’s content strategy off the ground with a few basic steps.
One-Sentence Emails That Will Close a Prospect
If you could send a one-line email and get a prospect’s attention, how would you do it?
Why 2021 Stock Market Forecasts Are Too Optimistic
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
What to Do About the High Cost of Investment Income
There is no easy answer for income investors whose expectations and behaviors need to be adjusted accordingly.
The Illusion Of Soaring Savings Amid Rising Economic Uncertainty
The illusion of surging savings rates or the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates the real economic problems and fosters the belief that monetary policies are working. They aren’t.
Forecast 2021: The Stock Market
The 2020s are going to be about rifle shots, not the shotgun approach of index funds.
Five Names for Investors to Know in the New Administration
Their decisions in the coming months could have an impact on the markets and investors.
LDI Programs: Finding a Better Replacement for Treasury STRIPS
A holistic LDI portfolio may provide a superior liability hedge.
The Problem With Analysts Forecasts
We can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would all win the lottery. They don’t, we can’t, and we aren’t going to try. However, this doesn’t stop the annual parade of Wall Street analysts from putting out forecasts on the S&P 500.
Is It Time to Rebrand Your Financial Advisor Website?
Here’s how to tell if your website is stuck in the past and, if it is, how to position it for success.
Trump Leaves Town an Outcast, Trailed by Pandemic, Job Losses
Donald Trump departs Washington on Wednesday with Americans more politically divided and more likely to be out of work than when he arrived, while awaiting trial for his second impeachment -- an ignominious end to one of the most turbulent presidencies in American history.
Biden’s $2 Trillion Stimulus Plan – Implications For The Economy
This enormous stimulus plan will have numerous effects on the economy, including the likely loss of millions of jobs, which the media doesn’t report, so that’s what we’ll talk about today.
Unmasked Potential for Munis in 2021
2021 market outlook from BlackRock's municipal bond team.
Why the B Corp Certification Matters
The B corp certification, which started in 2006, recognizes for-profit companies that use business as a force for good.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Federal Reserve Rescues
Rescues by the Federal Reserve and aggressive monetary policies have helped stock and bond investors, but the degree of money printing will be paid for by future generations.
Dan Ariely on Post-pandemic Financial Planning
Post-pandemic financial planning will reward advisors who illustrate the relationship between money and happiness to their clients.
Signal and Bitcoin: Twenty-First Century Tools of Personal and Economic Freedom
Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?
Monthly Municipal Market Update, December 2020
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
Don’t Drop the Baton in Retirement: Managing the “Handoff” From Saving to Spending
PIMCO’s “Income to Outcome” framework offers strategies to navigate retirement’s stumbling blocks.
Gary Gensler: Joe Biden’s Joseph P. Kennedy
If Gary Gensler becomes the SEC chairperson, it will harken back to the SEC’s origins and its first chairman, Joseph P. Kennedy.
Market Review Q420: The Trouble With Bubbles
The trouble with bubbles is they prey on human weakness. They are also high impact investment events.
The One Word that Closes Prospects
To persuade someone to do something, you have to show them the positive opposite of what they are doing by using this one word.
What I’d Like to See More and Less of in 2021 (Part Two)
This is the second in my series about what I’d like to see more and less of in 2021.
Elections Have Tax Consequences
The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia.
Ominous Lessons from Venezuela, Japan and China
Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Japan’s experiment in MMT and China’s rise to global leadership carry ominous lessons for the U.S. and investors in its markets.
Does Rebalancing Help Investors in the Withdrawal Phase?
I’ll focus on rebalancing versus buy-and-hold with a focus on retirement withdrawals.
Year of the Gripping Hand
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.
LIBOR’s Slow Phase-Out Continues
LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.
Selling Gets in the Way of Helping
If your client meetings look, sound, or feel a little similar to a sales call, you’re de-credentialing yourself and creating unnecessary barriers to developing trust.
What I’d Like to See More and Less of in 2021
We have a lot to reflect on this year. Here’s what I’d like to see more and less of in 2021.