Q3 2021 Market Perspectives: "A Global Shift"
After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors.
A Long Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
The 60/40 Portfolio Isn't Dead, Just More Expensive: Allison Schrager
Volatile, pandemic-riven markets for stocks and bonds has Wall Street ready — again — to declare the traditional 60/40 portfolio split a dead strategy. The prospect of a low-growth, high-inflation economy (stagflation) dims the prospects of both investment categories, and certainly demands a rethink of where to stash your savings.
Fed Policy is Driving Homelessness
In a society with a weak social safety net, homelessness is the inevitable result of exuberant real estate prices. Those living on the street are the indirect victims of loose monetary policy and low interest rates that foster high property and rental prices.
New Residential Housing Starts Down 1.6% in September
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.555M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.680M and a 1.6% decrease from the previous month's 1.580M.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 7.67% in September
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.589M was down 7.7% from the August reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.680M.
Monday Morning Outlook: Respect Millennials
Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they've been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging well behind prior generations.
Inflation is a Wolverine
The media and the economics profession are treating inflation like it is a friendly puppy dog. They think you can take it out of its pen and play with it for a while. The popular theory is that you bring it out in a severe dip in economic activity and when the economy gets back on its feet, you kindly ask inflation to crawl back into its pen like any good puppy dog would do.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "Strong Demand Boosts Builder Confidence Despite Supply Chain Disruptions"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 80 is up 4 from last month's 76.
What Is Shadow Inflation? It Could Be More Prevalent Than You Realize
We’re all familiar with inflation. But did you know there’s another form of inflation that’s just as corrosive on our purchasing power and yet is nearly impossible to measure? Read on to learn more.
Supply Chain Breakdown: Its Causes and Effects
Supply chains typically aren’t something the average person needs to think about too much. When they’re working, these high-tech, globalized networks of parts suppliers, assemblers, shippers, and distributors allow companies to make and move goods around the world so quickly and cheaply that it’s tempting to take them for granted.
Areté market review Q3 21
After solid performance in both July and August, the S&P 500 was considerably weaker in September. It was more than just passing weakness, however. The stock market looked much less the cocksure prize fighter than the contender who took a shot to the jaw that wobbled his knees.
Flavor of the Weak: Notable End to Some Key Winning Streaks
September closed with a whimper (from folks hoping the seven-month stretch of positive performance months for the S&P 500 would make it to eight). The month also held true to the history of September being the worst month for performance on average since the index’s inception in 1928.