Real Estate

Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.

Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.

It’s tempting these days for some investors to question the role of fixed income in portfolios. After all, real yields have plunged, potentially leading to less income today and smaller capital gains tomorrow.

The object of the game was to get to the finish line first and then become the leader the next round. The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.

Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.

Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.

Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.

February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.

In a year that offered a pandemic and an election as reasons for investors to bail on risky assets, 2020 turned out to be a great year for those that stayed the course. A 60/40 portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds increased by a double-digit percentage, exceeding expectations.

The rationale behind the meteoric rise of Gamestop, a chain of videogame rental stores, and AMC, one of the nation’s largest cinema operators, is too unlikely to be believed. In just one month both stocks had risen by more than 600%.

The headline data on both new and existing home sales indicates a strong housing market, but some underlying data is showing signs of weakness that may lead to slower growth. Despite historically low mortgage rates, the rapid increase in home prices is reducing affordability and banks are tightening underwriting standards on both government and subprime mortgages. If these trends continue, housing momentum could begin to wane.

The Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team discusses key themes in the securitized market in 2021.

For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”

Even after the remarkable market performance of 2020, we still see potential for continued growth in 2021.

Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.

Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?

Over the holidays, I spent a lot of time reading forecasts for 2021 from leading economists, big banks, think tanks and other so-called experts. Coming off one of the most volatile economic years in history due to the coronavirus pandemic, I was very interested to see what forecasters were predicting for the New Year.

The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on corporate spreads, foreign exchange and leverage in 2021.

This should be positive for gold, given the potential for greater government spending and, therefore, inflation.

This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.

Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown reflects on the trials and tribulations of 2020 and discusses his outlook for the new year.

Insurers generally take a narrow approach to investing in the securitized sector, usually through allocations in their investment grade fixed income reserve portfolios.

The coronavirus pandemic was a once-in-a-lifetime event that transformed society and the economy almost overnight. We believe some of the most significant changes are likely here to stay, and we are focusing our investments on the secular growth trends we expect to strengthen as life returns to normal.

Rick Rieder and team describe how revolutionary changes taking place in corporate business models will impact investing for years.

A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.

And then there’s Bitcoin. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has surged nearly 220% this year, touching an all-time high of $23,717 in intraday trading on Thursday.

As the sun sets on one of the most challenging years in memory, many healthcare systems and other types of non-profits find themselves in starkly different financial situations than they were at the start of the year.

Real estate is no exception to COVID-19’s disruptions, accelerating trends, and shifting how we live, consume, and work.

Science is winning the battle against the covid-19 coronavirus. The advance in therapies has already contributed to a significant reduction in hospitalisation and fatality rates vis-à-vis the number of cases, while the multiple of approved and soon to be approved vaccines puts the livelihoods of billions of people on track to normalise in 2021.

Our 2021 market outlook theme is “restart”, and with a restart comes optimism and the chance to begin anew. There will be volatility and bumps along the way, but for those that are disciplined and able to look past them, we see more opportunities ahead for upside than downside.

Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?

The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy (that is, higher taxes), and with multiple Covid-19 vaccines showing promise, the US economy may surprise on the upside in 2021.

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns.

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S. since the Silent Generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.

My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!

We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.

Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.

A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.

Gold “is a hedge on policymakers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.”

A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.

In our view, inflation-fighting asset classes look considerably cheaper and offer higher long-term estimated returns than mainstream stocks and bonds.

The economic calendar remains less interesting than politics, market gyrations, and the coronavirus. Those will be the media topics. A bigger challenge is finding a way to identify what is important and to determine the causal relationships.

America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.

We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021?

States face revenue shortfalls from COVID-19 costs and shutdowns. We look under the hood to assess how some of the most indebted states are faring.

Global equity markets rallied on Monday after major networks declared Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election, and early analysis of a COVID-19 vaccine from a large US drugmaker showed promising results.