Real Estate

This morning's release of the October Existing-Home Sales showed that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million units from the previous month's revised 6.57 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.45 million. The latest number represents a 4.3% increase from the previous month.

Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.530M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.460M and an increase from the previous month's revised 1.459M.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.545M was unchanged from the September reading and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.560M.

The economic calendar remains less interesting than politics, market gyrations, and the coronavirus. Those will be the media topics. A bigger challenge is finding a way to identify what is important and to determine the causal relationships.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 90 is up 5 from last month's 85 and at its highest level in the indicator's history, exceeding its December 1998 record.

America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.

We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021?

States face revenue shortfalls from COVID-19 costs and shutdowns. We look under the hood to assess how some of the most indebted states are faring.

Global equity markets rallied on Monday after major networks declared Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election, and early analysis of a COVID-19 vaccine from a large US drugmaker showed promising results.

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, we believe that investing in private markets may offer a raft of potential opportunities. Here's why.

The Federal Reserve is warning that asset prices in key markets could still take a hit if the coronavirus pandemic’s economic impact worsens in coming months.

Defensive equities are usually found in sectors that have withstood market shocks, such as utilities and real estate. But as COVID-19 shakes up investment conventions, companies with intangible assets are being more appreciated for their volatility cushion.

Today I want to use the election to illustrate just how complex a seemingly simple situation can be. This matters not just politically, but economically as well.

The 2020 election dims the outlook for major legislation and aid to local governments, while central banks face the risk of a liquidity trap.

Volatility swept across US markets over the last several days as fear and uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus as well as the US presidential election continue to take hold, causing the Nasdaq Composite to post its worst week since March.

In our latest Election Pulse, our Head of Equities Stephen Dover is joined by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai and Gallup’s Jonathan Rothwell to discuss survey findings on COVID-19 and its impact on the consumer. They discuss attitudes about vaccines, mask-wearing, and where they think the research may lead them post-election.

Just hours before the U.S. election got underway, investors pulled the most cash ever from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking corporate bonds.

When you run an equity portfolio which is concentrated in 25-30 common stock selections, there are usually three stocks which stick out as particularly attractive at any given time.

BlackRock bond experts reveal the top themes driving our fixed income outlook. Learn the latest key risks and opportunities in today’s bond market.

Head of Equities Stephen Dover joined Templeton Global Macro’s Katie Klingensmith and Fiduciary Trust Company International’s Gene Todd for a discussion about what they are keeping an eye on as investors.

One of the most recent mantras in the financial media is that housing prices rise because there is an inventory shortage. While it is an excellent headline for “getting clicks,” the are 3-reasons why there really is NO housing shortage.

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.

By almost any measure, 2020 has been one of the most volatile years for the market in recent memory. Through the first week of September, the S&P 500 SPX had more daily moves of +/- 2% or more this year than in any full calendar year since 2009. 

The latest on how equity managers across the globe fared during the third quarter, plus how the upcoming U.S. election is impacting manager viewpoints.

2020 has proven a challenging year for numerous businesses and individuals, Grey Owl Capital Management included. While most domestic stock market indices have fully recovered from the February and March Covid sell-off, many of our accounts are still down slightly on a year-to-date basis through the end of September.

The tightrope walker has his blindfold off, the wind is blowing, and it’s a long way down. Technically speaking, high-yield bond prices broke downward through a “double bottom,” which could reasonably be taken as an indicator of coming trouble for the stock market as well, given the greater wariness among bond market investors this year.

Here at U.S. Global Investors, we’re very bullish on commodities, particularly industrial and precious metals.

Today I want to discuss why the economy will recover, how that will happen and what it will look like. It won’t look like 2019, but the recovery will have its own flavor as we fast-forward future industries. I think that’s a good thing.vvv

Every once in a while, a breaking news story is on a topic that I actually understand. The September 27 New York Times article about Trump’s taxes was one such story. Many reactions to it show considerable misunderstanding and confusion on how the tax system works.

We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. There are continuing political and pandemic stories that could dominate the news cycle at any time. For those focused on financial markets, earnings season might provide answers to important questions.

If beating the market was as easy as becoming a top tennis player, there would be a lot more Serena Williams and Roger Federers. The lessons of acquiring skill in tennis are crucial for investors to heed.

“Resilience” was this week’s theme as better-than-expected market data came to light. Earnings season has begun, and so far reports have proven the doomsayers wrong. Even industries that have been hardest hit by the economic downturn, including air travel, are expressing optimism that we’re at the “end of the beginning” in terms of recovering from the worst health crisis in 100 years.

Despite the worst economic and health crisis in generations, U.S. consumers are defying the pessimists.

Our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, and Fiduciary Trust International Managing Director, Craig Richards, consider the US elections’ possible impacts to personal taxes. Both a “blue wave” or another Republican administration may encourage taxpayers and investors to start their 2021 tax planning now.

We recently read Peter Doran’s book, Breaking Rockefeller, which is a fabulous economic history of the world from 1840-1920 and focuses on how the monopoly created by John D. Rockefeller was broken from 1890-1910. We also watched a documentary called, “The Social Dilemma,” which explains, through the eyes of some of the social media creators, how incredibly damaging the monopolies, created by internet technology, are to society.

Our Dina Ting offers three reasons she and her team believe the case for international markets is once again strong, and opines on how recent market events have created new—or amplified existing—opportunities for investors to express views on specific countries.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history?

Every once in a while, a breaking news story is on a topic that I actually understand. The September 27 New York Times article about Trump’s taxes was one such story. Many reactions to it show considerable misunderstanding and confusion on how the tax system works.

The sooner we act, the sooner the power of compound investing can start changing the math for those who are currently destined to miss out on a fair and livable retirement.

To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.

Overall, Brent is optimistic about the U.S. economy and stock market heading into the fourth quarter.

Every January, I start keeping track of the predictions for the upcoming year I hear in the financial media and from advisors and investors. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, it’s time for my third review of how those forecasts played out.

Value stocks are going down today because they are sold to buy stocks that go up because they go up.

There are many benefits of using a rules-based approach using Relative Strength (RS), one of the main cornerstones of our research. Relative Strength, also known as Momentum, is a time-tested investment factor that permeates our work, allowing us to identify where both strength and weakness exists across securities, sectors, and asset classes using just one objective input - price.

The economy is at a crossroads and this commentary addresses why it’s critical to acknowledge the risks, as well as providing some specifics on how to deal with those uncertainties.

The acquisition of the Boston-based firm by Morgan Stanley checks all the boxes.

Given elements of uncertainty tied to COVID-19, geopolitics and policy decisions to come in the United States and across the globe, our K2 Advisors team believes the current environment may favor nimble, shorter-term strategies.

The pandemic has amplified four long-term macroeconomic disruptors, and fiscal policy – a key swing factor – may hold the key to upside or downside surprises. Read our long-term outlook and learn implications to consider when investing.

As long-time readers know, I tend to be upbeat about the economy and the stock and bond markets, and that has certainly proven to be the correct position to hold over the last 20-30 years.

We have a modest economic calendar including the ISM non-manufacturing index, JOLTS, jobless claims data, and the NFIB index. The Fed minutes from September’s meeting will be released. The Vice-Presidential debate is set for Wednesday.

Investors should try to avoid getting distracted by the feuding political parties within the U.S. A lot of the infighting is being fueled by outside actors, who thrive on the chaos and the division. Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are delighted that we’re so divided right now.

Insights into how five COVID-19-impacted sectors are performing—and what the future may hold.

While the US economy has been staging a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the challenge is far from over, says Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She says the tug of war between the virus and the economy seems likely to continue until an effective vaccine is made available at scale.

Policy will continue to be carefully calibrated as China walks a tightrope between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability.

Delaware statutory trusts (DSTs) offer accredited investors a wide range of attractive benefits, including passive income potential and capital gains tax deferral under section 1031 of the Internal Revenue Code. Learn why DSTs make an ideal investment for a broad range of accredited investors.

Capital Square is a national investment sponsor specializing in tax-advantaged real estate offerings, including Delaware statutory trusts and qualified opportunity zone funds. Founded in 2012, the investor-centric company has completed more than $2 billion in transaction volume.

Is there any other business on earth where an owner can be as incompetent as Fred Wilpon and come away richer than ever?

As economies reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns, there have been fundamental shifts to daily life and work, as well as the investment landscape.

The pandemic has battered New York City businesses, with almost 6,000 closures, a jump of about 40% in bankruptcy filings across the region and shuttered storefronts in the business districts of all five boroughs. It’s going to get worse.

We have a huge economic calendar and the first of three scheduled Presidential debates. The employment report will be the last one before the election, so I expect it to get special attention. Most of the other important economic data will also be reported during the week.

Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.

Our election 2020 coverage begins with fiscal policy, security risks that are slowing foreign investment, and legislative standstills.

The coronavirus pandemic and the response by governments and central banks have family offices and ultra-wealthy individuals around the world on the defensive.

Wall Street is inventing a new kind of suburban living that’s easier to afford, but where the financial benefits of homeownership go to Wall Street firms.

The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 97% above the 2009 trough. The nominal Q2 net worth is up 6.8% from the previous quarter and up 4.4% year-over-year.

Over the last several months, we have discussed the remarkable underperformance of value versus growth. While many investors quickly dismiss the performance gap under the guise of “this time is different,” it has important longer-term implications. In today’s missive, we want to discuss value, the margin of safety, and the real art of “doing nothing.”

Because donors want the organizations they support to succeed and survive, they and their advisors have inquired how their DAF sponsors can be helpful in their quest.

An interesting contrast was drawn on September 15, 2020 between Lennar’s (LEN) earnings call and statistics on revenue per employee at Apple Corporation (AAPL). Lennar described strong growth out into the future in a measured way, because they believe that the prior decade created a home supply deficit due to underbuilding.

In the revised edition of The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry Swedroe and Andrew Berkin make the case that investors are better off choosing passive investments because markets have become more efficient as managers became more skilled.

The start of this year was calm with the economic expansion reaching a record duration, unemployment at record lows, and earnings growth set to reach all-time highs. However, a ‘Black Swan’ event—COVID-19—erupted, driving market and economic volatility to unprecedented levels.

I have previously discussed the importance of understanding how “physics” plays a crucial role in the stock market. As Sir Issac Newton once discovered, “what goes up, must come down.”

This “exodus,” as some are already calling it, may end up being among the biggest in U.S. history, or at least the biggest since the 1950s and 60s. A record 27.4 percent of homebuyers sought to move out of their metro areas in the second quarter, according to Redfin data.

The facilities will bring products closer to customers, making shopping online about as fast as a quick run to the store.

Nowhere is the widening gap between real estate and the real economy more apparent than in Las Vegas, where tourism is in ruins, wages are plunging and home prices just keep rocketing higher.

David Solomon is taking another shot at unloading his expansive estate in the ski town of Aspen, Colorado, as wealthy Americans seek property away from urban areas.