Housing Market Shows Risk of Expert Predictions
Investment success requires that a person have a high tolerance for boredom, which means turning a deaf ear to the financial press’s investment panic-de-jour. It's good for your financial health to avoid following the advice of prognosticating financial soothsayers. Even when one of them is me.
Moving Averages: Up 6% in April
Valid until the market close on May 310 2021.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 6% after a gain of 4.24% in March. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
Educate Clients About the Need for a Team Approach to Advice
One of the most common reasons new clients seek me out is the loss of their long-standing financial advisor. As an advisor, the best way to protect against losing those clients is to create a team or “ensemble” approach to providing financial advice.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in March, All-Time High
With the release of this morning's report on March's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 23.57% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 22.94% when we adjust for inflation and an all-time high. This is an increase from last month's -7.91% nominal and -8.13% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 31.77% nominal and 28.78% real.
Pending Home Sales Up 1.9% in March
Today the National Association of Realtors released the March data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales increased in March, snapping two consecutive months of declines."
February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 12% YoY
With today's release of the February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.2% increase month over month which is cut to 0.9% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw an 11.9% YoY increase.
Tradition… Inflation? – Total Return Outlook, Second Quarter
Investors aggressively sold off Treasuries in the first quarter in favor of risk assets. We think this is likely to continue as the economy strengthens and inflationary pressures build, and we are maintaining a defensive duration profile to protect against rising rates.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.9% in February
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for February. U.S. house prices were up 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 12.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.45% in February and up 10.26% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).