February Moving Averages: Up 2.6% from January
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly gain of 2.61% after a loss of 1.11% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in January, CARES Act 2.0
With the release of this morning's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 11.33% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 10.95% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.55% nominal and 0.18% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 14.38% nominal and 12.74% real. Increases can be attributed to the second round of funds distributions through the CARES Act.
This Era May Come to Be Remembered as the Federal Reserve’s Third Great Mistake
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.
Pending Home Sales Retreat in January
Today the National Association of Realtors released the January data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales took a step backward in January as inventory constraints continue to hold back prospective buyers."
A Value Investor’s View on US Small-Cap Stocks
Franklin Small Cap Value Fund Portfolio Manager Steve Raineri discusses why he thinks the near-record underperformance of higher-quality, profitable small-capitalization (small-cap) value stocks relative to lower-quality, unprofitable companies could present a compelling opportunity for longer-term investors as the US economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
New Home Sales Up 4.3% in January
This morning's release of the January New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 923K, up 4.3% month-over-month from a revised 885K in December. The Investing.com forecast was for 855K. The median home price is now at $346K.
December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 10.4% YoY NSA
With today's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.25% increase month over month which is cut to 1.1% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 10.4% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.1% in December
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 11.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.82% in December and up 10.22% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).