What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly gain of 2.61% after a loss of 1.11% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
House lawmakers kicked off an effort to tackle dominant technology companies, vowing a revamp of competition laws to curb their power.
With the release of this morning's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 11.33% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 10.95% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.55% nominal and 0.18% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 14.38% nominal and 12.74% real. Increases can be attributed to the second round of funds distributions through the CARES Act.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.
Today the National Association of Realtors released the January data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales took a step backward in January as inventory constraints continue to hold back prospective buyers."
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
Franklin Small Cap Value Fund Portfolio Manager Steve Raineri discusses why he thinks the near-record underperformance of higher-quality, profitable small-capitalization (small-cap) value stocks relative to lower-quality, unprofitable companies could present a compelling opportunity for longer-term investors as the US economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
This morning's release of the January New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 923K, up 4.3% month-over-month from a revised 885K in December. The Investing.com forecast was for 855K. The median home price is now at $346K.
We think this is an excellent time to ponder the thoughts of Buffett and Munger.
With today's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.25% increase month over month which is cut to 1.1% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 10.4% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 11.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.82% in December and up 10.22% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
U.S. stocks have the highest CAPE ratio of any global equity market, but they are still the place to invest. But the inventor of that metric, Robert Shiller, says that stocks are indeed risky.
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.
This morning's release of the January Existing-Home Sales showed that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units from the previous month's revised 6.65 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.61 million. The latest number represents a 0.6% increase from the previous month.
It’s tempting these days for some investors to question the role of fixed income in portfolios. After all, real yields have plunged, potentially leading to less income today and smaller capital gains tomorrow.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for January new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.580M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.658M and a decrease from the previous month's upwardly revised 1.680M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for January new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.881M was up 10.4% from the December reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.678M.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 84 is up 1 from last month's 83.
The object of the game was to get to the finish line first and then become the leader the next round. The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.
Maybe you’ve heard: The pandemic is killing cities, fueling a rush to spacious houses in the suburbs. But beyond pricey New York and San Francisco, real estate demand is booming in downtowns across America.
Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
The fundamental concept that you must understand about LinkedIn is this: It is not a meritocracy, it’s an attention-getting contest.
In making the case for a mammoth $1.9 trillion economic relief package, President Joe Biden and his acolytes had maintained that economists across the board agreed that now is the time to go big in the fight against the pandemic.
Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.
With fixed income yields stubbornly low, should clients prepay their mortgage instead of investing in bonds? I argue this question is based on a false equivalence.
Former New York Yankees star Alex Rodriguez joined the roster of wealthy celebrities backing blank-check companies with a filing to raise $500 million for Slam Corp.
February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2020.
In a year that offered a pandemic and an election as reasons for investors to bail on risky assets, 2020 turned out to be a great year for those that stayed the course. A 60/40 portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds increased by a double-digit percentage, exceeding expectations.
The rationale behind the meteoric rise of Gamestop, a chain of videogame rental stores, and AMC, one of the nation’s largest cinema operators, is too unlikely to be believed. In just one month both stocks had risen by more than 600%.
The headline data on both new and existing home sales indicates a strong housing market, but some underlying data is showing signs of weakness that may lead to slower growth. Despite historically low mortgage rates, the rapid increase in home prices is reducing affordability and banks are tightening underwriting standards on both government and subprime mortgages. If these trends continue, housing momentum could begin to wane.
The Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team discusses key themes in the securitized market in 2021.
For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”
Calls for fiscal stimulus measures to target infrastructure are growing. But new research shows that infrastructure investments have offered few benefits to investors.
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
Even after the remarkable market performance of 2020, we still see potential for continued growth in 2021.
Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.
Every January, I start keeping track of the predictions for the upcoming year I hear in the financial media and from advisors and investors. With the arrival of 2021, it’s time for my final review of how the 2020 forecasts played out.
Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?
The pandemic housing market rally, a bright spot for the U.S. economy, may already have peaked as the growth in home prices starts to slow.
Over the holidays, I spent a lot of time reading forecasts for 2021 from leading economists, big banks, think tanks and other so-called experts. Coming off one of the most volatile economic years in history due to the coronavirus pandemic, I was very interested to see what forecasters were predicting for the New Year.
In his forecast for 2021, Jeffrey Gundlach predicted a “regime change.” Investors should prepare for themes that reverse prior trends: U.S. equities will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will be higher, and the dollar will weaken.
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on corporate spreads, foreign exchange and leverage in 2021.
This should be positive for gold, given the potential for greater government spending and, therefore, inflation.
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.
As we head into a new year and a change of administration in Washington, advisors should be discussing several estate planning considerations with their clients.
Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown reflects on the trials and tribulations of 2020 and discusses his outlook for the new year.
If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that life is uncertain. Through this lens, I’ve started to abandon some conservative personal finance principles. This summer, for example, I went against the adage of “staying the course” with retirement and stuck my hand in my IRA to shed some stocks.
Insurers generally take a narrow approach to investing in the securitized sector, usually through allocations in their investment grade fixed income reserve portfolios.
As Bitcoin soared to above $28,000 over the weekend, talk resumed about the promising and dramatic future of cryptocurrency. The chief global strategist of Morgan Stanley Investment Management even suggested that Bitcoin could replace the dollar as a global reserve currency.
This has been a year like no other. Hammered by an unprecedented health crisis, global stocks tumbled into a bear market at record speed, and then rallied to new highs thanks to a flood of central bank money.
The coronavirus pandemic was a once-in-a-lifetime event that transformed society and the economy almost overnight. We believe some of the most significant changes are likely here to stay, and we are focusing our investments on the secular growth trends we expect to strengthen as life returns to normal.
Rick Rieder and team describe how revolutionary changes taking place in corporate business models will impact investing for years.
A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.
There is strong demand for steady income. However, most investment products and strategies fail dismally in this regard.
And then there’s Bitcoin. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has surged nearly 220% this year, touching an all-time high of $23,717 in intraday trading on Thursday.
As the sun sets on one of the most challenging years in memory, many healthcare systems and other types of non-profits find themselves in starkly different financial situations than they were at the start of the year.
A lot of things can be expected to go back to normal once the Covid-19 pandemic is truly over. Restaurants, cruise ships and resort towns will be packed again. Spending on home improvements will subside.
Real estate is no exception to COVID-19’s disruptions, accelerating trends, and shifting how we live, consume, and work.
Science is winning the battle against the covid-19 coronavirus. The advance in therapies has already contributed to a significant reduction in hospitalisation and fatality rates vis-à-vis the number of cases, while the multiple of approved and soon to be approved vaccines puts the livelihoods of billions of people on track to normalise in 2021.
Our 2021 market outlook theme is “restart”, and with a restart comes optimism and the chance to begin anew. There will be volatility and bumps along the way, but for those that are disciplined and able to look past them, we see more opportunities ahead for upside than downside.
Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?
The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy (that is, higher taxes), and with multiple Covid-19 vaccines showing promise, the US economy may surprise on the upside in 2021.
Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.
The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns.
The financial health of state pension plans has worsened and advisors should avoid municipal bonds from certain issuers.
Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S. since the Silent Generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.
U.S. mortgage rates fell to a record low for the 14th time this year.
Over the last six months, my firm has skewed its portfolio towards defense companies. We have done this intentionally. The world is less safe today than at any time since the Berlin Wall came down.
My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!
We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.
Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.
Amid historically low rates, the income solutions of yesterday are not going to cut it. Global X ETFs has recognized and reacted to this paradigm shift by developing alternative, higher-yielding strategies.
“I predict the bull market will continue next year,” says Jeremy Siegel. “Stocks are not overpriced.”
Gold “is a hedge on policymakers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.”
A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.
In our view, inflation-fighting asset classes look considerably cheaper and offer higher long-term estimated returns than mainstream stocks and bonds.
U.S. new home construction rose in October by more than forecast to the fastest pace since February, highlighting a robust residential real estate market that’s helping spur the economy.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
The economic calendar remains less interesting than politics, market gyrations, and the coronavirus. Those will be the media topics. A bigger challenge is finding a way to identify what is important and to determine the causal relationships.
America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.
We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021?
States face revenue shortfalls from COVID-19 costs and shutdowns. We look under the hood to assess how some of the most indebted states are faring.
Global equity markets rallied on Monday after major networks declared Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election, and early analysis of a COVID-19 vaccine from a large US drugmaker showed promising results.
Real Estate
The Great Jobs Reset
What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.
February Moving Averages: Up 2.6% from January
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly gain of 2.61% after a loss of 1.11% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
Tech Gets Congress Antitrust Warning: ‘Change Is Coming’
House lawmakers kicked off an effort to tackle dominant technology companies, vowing a revamp of competition laws to curb their power.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in January, CARES Act 2.0
With the release of this morning's report on January Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 11.33% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 10.95% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's 0.55% nominal and 0.18% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 14.38% nominal and 12.74% real. Increases can be attributed to the second round of funds distributions through the CARES Act.
Moving Averages: Month-End Preview
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
This Era May Come to Be Remembered as the Federal Reserve’s Third Great Mistake
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.
Pending Home Sales Retreat in January
Today the National Association of Realtors released the January data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales took a step backward in January as inventory constraints continue to hold back prospective buyers."
What the Pandemic Taught Us About Target Date Funds
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
A Value Investor’s View on US Small-Cap Stocks
Franklin Small Cap Value Fund Portfolio Manager Steve Raineri discusses why he thinks the near-record underperformance of higher-quality, profitable small-capitalization (small-cap) value stocks relative to lower-quality, unprofitable companies could present a compelling opportunity for longer-term investors as the US economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
New Home Sales Up 4.3% in January
This morning's release of the January New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 923K, up 4.3% month-over-month from a revised 885K in December. The Investing.com forecast was for 855K. The median home price is now at $346K.
Beating Bobby Fischer
We think this is an excellent time to ponder the thoughts of Buffett and Munger.
December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 10.4% YoY NSA
With today's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.25% increase month over month which is cut to 1.1% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 10.4% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.1% in December
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for December. U.S. house prices were up 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 11.4% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.82% in December and up 10.22% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
Robert Shiller: U.S. Equities are Still the Place to Invest
U.S. stocks have the highest CAPE ratio of any global equity market, but they are still the place to invest. But the inventor of that metric, Robert Shiller, says that stocks are indeed risky.
Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
Texas Freezes, but a New Commodities Supercycle Could Be Heating Up
Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.
Existing-Home Sales Up 0.6% in January
This morning's release of the January Existing-Home Sales showed that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units from the previous month's revised 6.65 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.61 million. The latest number represents a 0.6% increase from the previous month.
Fixed Income: Low Yields Don’t Tell the Whole Story
It’s tempting these days for some investors to question the role of fixed income in portfolios. After all, real yields have plunged, potentially leading to less income today and smaller capital gains tomorrow.
New Residential Housing Starts at 1.58M in January
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for January new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.580M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.658M and a decrease from the previous month's upwardly revised 1.680M.
New Residential Building Permits: Up Another 10.4% in January
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for January new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.881M was up 10.4% from the December reading and is above the Investing.com forecast of 1.678M.
NAHB Housing Market Index: "High Demand Offsets Higher Costs – For Now"
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 84 is up 1 from last month's 83.
Simon Says
The object of the game was to get to the finish line first and then become the leader the next round. The stock market has its own game of “Simon says” and that is in the mall property world.
Housing Prices Are Booming in U.S. Cities — Just Not San Francisco or New York
Maybe you’ve heard: The pandemic is killing cities, fueling a rush to spacious houses in the suburbs. But beyond pricey New York and San Francisco, real estate demand is booming in downtowns across America.
What’s the Value of a Dollar?
Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.
Vexing Today’s Convex Pricing Behavior
Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.
How I Cracked the Code Behind LinkedIn's Algorithms
The fundamental concept that you must understand about LinkedIn is this: It is not a meritocracy, it’s an attention-getting contest.
Yellen, Summers Spar About Overheating Risk in Stimulus Plan
In making the case for a mammoth $1.9 trillion economic relief package, President Joe Biden and his acolytes had maintained that economists across the board agreed that now is the time to go big in the fight against the pandemic.
The Return of Inflation
Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.
A Mortgage is Not a “Negative Bond”
With fixed income yields stubbornly low, should clients prepay their mortgage instead of investing in bonds? I argue this question is based on a false equivalence.
Alex Rodriguez Files to Raise $500 Million in Slam Corp. SPAC
Former New York Yankees star Alex Rodriguez joined the roster of wealthy celebrities backing blank-check companies with a filing to raise $500 million for Slam Corp.
Volatility Spikes; First Monthly S&P 500 Loss Since October
February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.6% in Q4
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q4 2020.
First Quarter 2021 Economic & Market Outlook: Looking Beyond the Traditional
In a year that offered a pandemic and an election as reasons for investors to bail on risky assets, 2020 turned out to be a great year for those that stayed the course. A 60/40 portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds increased by a double-digit percentage, exceeding expectations.
Springtime for Gamestop
The rationale behind the meteoric rise of Gamestop, a chain of videogame rental stores, and AMC, one of the nation’s largest cinema operators, is too unlikely to be believed. In just one month both stocks had risen by more than 600%.
Some Data May Be Showing Signs of a Short-Term Pause in Home Sales
The headline data on both new and existing home sales indicates a strong housing market, but some underlying data is showing signs of weakness that may lead to slower growth. Despite historically low mortgage rates, the rapid increase in home prices is reducing affordability and banks are tightening underwriting standards on both government and subprime mortgages. If these trends continue, housing momentum could begin to wane.
2021 Outlook: Three Questions for the Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team
The Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team discusses key themes in the securitized market in 2021.
Welcome to the Jungle
For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”
The Lackluster Record for Infrastructure Investments
Calls for fiscal stimulus measures to target infrastructure are growing. But new research shows that infrastructure investments have offered few benefits to investors.
Why 2021 Stock Market Forecasts Are Too Optimistic
There are two incorrect assumptions in most stock return forecasts.
Open the Door to Optimism for 2021
Even after the remarkable market performance of 2020, we still see potential for continued growth in 2021.
Outlook 2021: “Frenzy” is the Opposite of Bull Market Stew
Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.
Final Review of 2020 “Sure Things”
Every January, I start keeping track of the predictions for the upcoming year I hear in the financial media and from advisors and investors. With the arrival of 2021, it’s time for my final review of how the 2020 forecasts played out.
Signal and Bitcoin: Twenty-First Century Tools of Personal and Economic Freedom
Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?
Surge in U.S. Home Prices Eases in Sign Pandemic Rally May Cool
The pandemic housing market rally, a bright spot for the U.S. economy, may already have peaked as the growth in home prices starts to slow.
Outlook 2021: Light At The End Of The Tunnel, Maybe
Over the holidays, I spent a lot of time reading forecasts for 2021 from leading economists, big banks, think tanks and other so-called experts. Coming off one of the most volatile economic years in history due to the coronavirus pandemic, I was very interested to see what forecasters were predicting for the New Year.
Gundlach’s Forecast for 2021 – The Year of Regime Change
In his forecast for 2021, Jeffrey Gundlach predicted a “regime change.” Investors should prepare for themes that reverse prior trends: U.S. equities will underperform the rest of the world, inflation will rise, volatility will be higher, and the dollar will weaken.
2021 Outlook: Three Questions for the Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team
The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on corporate spreads, foreign exchange and leverage in 2021.
Will Commodities Ride the "Blue Wave" Higher in 2021?
This should be positive for gold, given the potential for greater government spending and, therefore, inflation.
Year of the Gripping Hand
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.
Estate Planning Tips for 2021
As we head into a new year and a change of administration in Washington, advisors should be discussing several estate planning considerations with their clients.
Economists Expect a Strong Showing in Second Half of 2021
Raymond James Chief Economist Dr. Scott Brown reflects on the trials and tribulations of 2020 and discusses his outlook for the new year.
Why (and How) I Plan to Die With an Empty Bank Account: Farnoosh Torabi
If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that life is uncertain. Through this lens, I’ve started to abandon some conservative personal finance principles. This summer, for example, I went against the adage of “staying the course” with retirement and stuck my hand in my IRA to shed some stocks.
For Insurers, Time to Take a Broader View of Securitized Investing
Insurers generally take a narrow approach to investing in the securitized sector, usually through allocations in their investment grade fixed income reserve portfolios.
Cryptocurrency Is Not Necessarily the Future: Tyler Cowen
As Bitcoin soared to above $28,000 over the weekend, talk resumed about the promising and dramatic future of cryptocurrency. The chief global strategist of Morgan Stanley Investment Management even suggested that Bitcoin could replace the dollar as a global reserve currency.
Investors Rethink Role of Bonds, Tech and ESG After Chaotic Year
This has been a year like no other. Hammered by an unprecedented health crisis, global stocks tumbled into a bear market at record speed, and then rallied to new highs thanks to a flood of central bank money.
Back to (the New) Normal: Five Secular Growth Trends for 2021
The coronavirus pandemic was a once-in-a-lifetime event that transformed society and the economy almost overnight. We believe some of the most significant changes are likely here to stay, and we are focusing our investments on the secular growth trends we expect to strengthen as life returns to normal.
Investing in a Frictionless World
Rick Rieder and team describe how revolutionary changes taking place in corporate business models will impact investing for years.
Big Data for a Big Year
A variety of data sources show we are closer to normal, but not fully recovered.
Destroying Steady Income Streams
There is strong demand for steady income. However, most investment products and strategies fail dismally in this regard.
Bitcoin Cracks Record High Due to Institutional Investors
And then there’s Bitcoin. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has surged nearly 220% this year, touching an all-time high of $23,717 in intraday trading on Thursday.
The 2021 List Issue, Part 2: The Re-Evaluation List for Non-Profits and Healthcare
As the sun sets on one of the most challenging years in memory, many healthcare systems and other types of non-profits find themselves in starkly different financial situations than they were at the start of the year.
The New Battles to Come Over Working From Home: Justin Fox
A lot of things can be expected to go back to normal once the Covid-19 pandemic is truly over. Restaurants, cruise ships and resort towns will be packed again. Spending on home improvements will subside.
Real Estate Disruptions Accelerate Active Opportunities
Real estate is no exception to COVID-19’s disruptions, accelerating trends, and shifting how we live, consume, and work.
2021 Outlook: Seven Themes for a Post-Vaccine World
Science is winning the battle against the covid-19 coronavirus. The advance in therapies has already contributed to a significant reduction in hospitalisation and fatality rates vis-à-vis the number of cases, while the multiple of approved and soon to be approved vaccines puts the livelihoods of billions of people on track to normalise in 2021.
2021 Market Outlook: The restart
Our 2021 market outlook theme is “restart”, and with a restart comes optimism and the chance to begin anew. There will be volatility and bumps along the way, but for those that are disciplined and able to look past them, we see more opportunities ahead for upside than downside.
Slow Brexit, Overloaded Shippers, Growing Fed Balance Sheet
Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?
The US Election and COVID-19 Vaccines: Implications for the Economy and Markets
The likelihood of a divided US government removes a major potential headwind to the US economy (that is, higher taxes), and with multiple Covid-19 vaccines showing promise, the US economy may surprise on the upside in 2021.
The Times Are a Changing
Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.
2021: Robust Growth, Higher Inflation
The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID shutdowns.
The Consequences of Long-Term State Pension Underperformance
The financial health of state pension plans has worsened and advisors should avoid municipal bonds from certain issuers.
Monthly Global Economic Report
Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S. since the Silent Generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.
U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall to a Record-Low 2.71% for 30-Year Loans
U.S. mortgage rates fell to a record low for the 14th time this year.
The Case for a Defensive Allocation
Over the last six months, my firm has skewed its portfolio towards defense companies. We have done this intentionally. The world is less safe today than at any time since the Berlin Wall came down.
Reminiscences of an eBay Operator
My wife brought me a box of ornaments that my mother has given to us over the years. I decided to check what I could sell them for on eBay (EBAY). What a great way to look at what is going on in equity capital markets!
2021 Muni Bond Outlook: Storm Clouds Clearing
We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.
No Single Story to the COVID Recovery
Recovery from COVID-19 has been a mix of successes and setbacks.
The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.
Non-Traditional Sources of Income in a Low-Rate World
Amid historically low rates, the income solutions of yesterday are not going to cut it. Global X ETFs has recognized and reacted to this paradigm shift by developing alternative, higher-yielding strategies.
Jeremy Siegel: 2021 will be a Bull Market for Stocks
“I predict the bull market will continue next year,” says Jeremy Siegel. “Stocks are not overpriced.”
The World Has Racked Up $277 Trillion in Debt
Gold “is a hedge on policymakers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.”
The New Abnormal
A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.
All Asset All Access: Preparing Portfolios for Longer‑term Risks and Contrarian Opportunities
In our view, inflation-fighting asset classes look considerably cheaper and offer higher long-term estimated returns than mainstream stocks and bonds.
U.S. Housing Starts Increased More Than Forecast in October
U.S. new home construction rose in October by more than forecast to the fastest pace since February, highlighting a robust residential real estate market that’s helping spur the economy.
A Long Term Look: Residential Building Permits and Housing Starts
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Learning from Swiss Cheese
The economic calendar remains less interesting than politics, market gyrations, and the coronavirus. Those will be the media topics. A bigger challenge is finding a way to identify what is important and to determine the causal relationships.
Investors Get a Shot of Hope Amid the Uncertainty
America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.
US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Policy and Pandemic Drive Macro View
We’ve seen aggressive government and central bank support to stimulate economies sickened from COVID-19 slowdowns, but will the global economy right itself in 2021?
Municipal Bonds: The State of the States
States face revenue shortfalls from COVID-19 costs and shutdowns. We look under the hood to assess how some of the most indebted states are faring.
US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Time for Strategy Rotation
Global equity markets rallied on Monday after major networks declared Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election, and early analysis of a COVID-19 vaccine from a large US drugmaker showed promising results.