Moving Averages Update: November Up 10.75%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2020.
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 10.75% after a loss of 2.77% in October. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — an increase from last month's triple"invested" signal.
The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in October
With the release of this morning's report on October Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.81% month-over-month change in disposable income is unchanged when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.70% nominal and 0.53% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 5.72% nominal and 4.48% real.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 7% YoY NSA
With today's release of the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.27% increase month over month which is cut to 1.21% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.7% in September, Record High
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for September. U.S. house prices were up 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 9.1% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.44% in September and up 7.95% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The New Abnormal
A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.
All Asset All Access: Preparing Portfolios for Longer‑term Risks and Contrarian Opportunities
In our view, inflation-fighting asset classes look considerably cheaper and offer higher long-term estimated returns than mainstream stocks and bonds.