The Inflation Trade Anew
As the inflation discussion continues to gather momentum, please join guest speakers VanEck Portfolio Managers Shawn Reynolds and Roland Morris, Deputy Portfolio Manager Charles Cameron, and sector specialists Veronica Zhang from VanEck’s natural resource equity and commodity strategies.
It seems like it’s been awhile since there’s been such a strong alignment in commodities and natural resources, from tailwinds associated with the global recovery to strong fundamentals, valuations and growth prospects across industries at a company level. The VanEck team will guide you through an in-depth look at the latest trends, their implications and potential opportunities with an overview on our diverse solutions available to access this space.
Understanding Fat Tail Returns
Much statistical analysis in finance depends on the assumption that variables have normal distributions. This assumption is far from correct. As a result, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb has rightly pointed out, most statistical results in finance are wrong. Now, a disciple of Taleb has tried to extend Taleb’s research by relating it to an obscure mathematical concept.
Government Bond Yields Have Surged, but Real Yields Are at Zero
Yields have jumped so much, in fact, that they’re giving stocks a serious run for their money. The 10-year yield is now higher than the S&P 500 dividend yield, which may have added to the selling pressure that cost stocks close to 2.5% yesterday.
February Moving Averages: Up 2.6% from January
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed February with a monthly gain of 2.61% after a loss of 1.11% in January. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
The Birth of Global Tech Continues
From cloud computing and automation to self-driving cars, technology continues to be one of the world’s hottest sectors. Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover and Portfolio Managers Donald Huber and John Remmert believe active investing in technology and innovation is a global story, and government support and spending in next-generation technologies is likely a long-term positive.
This Era May Come to Be Remembered as the Federal Reserve’s Third Great Mistake
The Great Inflation of the 1960s and 70s, the earliest stages of which were already underway when Graham spoke at the St. Francis Hotel, eventually produced some of the most astonishing economic dislocations in U.S. history.
The Only Reason To Be “Bearish” Is “No One Is Bearish”
More than 90% of investors believe the economy will be more robust in 2021, with a consensus it’s a V-shape recovery. For the first time since January 2020, chief investment officers want to increase capital spending rather than improve balance sheets.