Municipal Bonds

Concerns about China’s slowing economy have focused on issues affecting property and manufacturing. But these are only part of the story. Investors seeking a fuller understanding of the risks and opportunities need to take a broader perspective.

I was speaking with an industry friend and colleague the other day, and we got to riffing about music and retirement planning. A free and creative thinker, she said that when talking to clients about future retirement income, the sweet spot timing wise seems to be about five years before clients retire.

After solid performance in both July and August, the S&P 500 was considerably weaker in September. It was more than just passing weakness, however. The stock market looked much less the cocksure prize fighter than the contender who took a shot to the jaw that wobbled his knees.

September closed with a whimper (from folks hoping the seven-month stretch of positive performance months for the S&P 500 would make it to eight). The month also held true to the history of September being the worst month for performance on average since the index’s inception in 1928.

We all remember the COVID-19 recession which occurred in early 2020. It was a severe recession which saw GDP plunge over 30% last spring during the widespread lockdowns. The good news was the lockdowns ended quickly and the economy recovered all its losses, and then some, in the 3Q of last year. It’s been on a roll ever since.

The strong economic and market trends of the first half of 2021 wavered during the third quarter. The coronavirus delta variant caught up with the US at the height of the summer, just as vaccinations slowed and concerns grew that inflation might flare and persist.

The fact we have the lowest interest rates in 5000-years is indicative of the economic challenges we face.

There is a cost to waiting for interest rates to rise—you may be missing out on higher coupon rates and yields elsewhere. Rather than waiting on the sidelines for yields to rise, investors should consider short-term corporate bonds today—specifically those with fixed coupon rates.

As we sit atop our prosperous peak, admiring the views of the fastest economic growth since 1984, the best start to a bull market and the record-breaking quarter of earnings growth, it’s wise to remember that not too long ago we began our uphill journey from the depths of the COVID-19 ravine. Often, the best views come after the hardest climbs.

Since the Fed’s September FOMC meeting and official taper announcement, we are witnessing what appears to potentially be a shift back into the reflation trade.

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

We view the U.S. Treasury yield spike as resolving a disconnect between the powerful restart and lower yields in recent months, and stay tactically pro-risk.

Wealth has risen excessively in recent years and, now, inflation has started to rise as well. Why those two stories are two sides of the same coin, and why much of the growth in wealth must be confiscated again is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about.

The US Federal Reserve will soon slow its open market purchases of fixed-income securities. These purchases have served to keep rates low and liquidity flowing, but as the post-pandemic economy heals, it’s time for the Fed to taper. As they step back from buying, who is going to step forward?

A three-party coalition could soon govern Germany for the first time in the country’s history following recent elections. Matthias Hoppe, senior vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, believes uncertainty caused by coalition talks is likely to increase volatility in Europe’s financial markets, but changing a conservative attitude to public spending is the real challenge for a new government as Germany wrestles with the reality of increasing macro-economic imbalances and a stated aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday on persistent concerns over the debt ceiling, along with a continued increase in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 closed down 2%, the Nasdaq fell 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.3%.

We have become famous (or infamous) regarding our views that there is a bubble in long-duration assets. In this report, we investigate what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the interesting investment opportunities resulting from the bubble’s misallocation of capital.

We will touch on a couple bases today. We begin by revisiting the federal debt ceiling, or borrowing limit, since the government will run out of money to pay its bills by the middle of next month or so. Yes, after suspending the debt ceiling back in 2019, it was automatically reinstated at the beginning of August. So, here we go again with the political fights over whether or not to raise the debt ceiling – as we always do.

As the globe enters the waning months of 2021, concerns over inflation, the delta variant of COVID-19 and the unwinding of easy-money policies loom large for markets. Despite this, we believe that the business cycle is still in a recovery phase, although it’s maturing. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S. in the months ahead, allowing market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.

The German election resulted in change in party leadership, but market impact should be limited, according to David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income. He shares an overview of the election implications.

On Monday, stocks solidly cracked below the 50-dma, but the bounce off the lows has investors asking if it’s “time to buy?”

Against the backdrop of a potential Evergrande failure, gold and Bitcoin look very attractive as stores of value, and both happen to be on sale right now.

The recent issues with China Evergrande Group have raised concerns over the broader health of China’s real estate market, the potential risk to its financial system and, more broadly, whether this could trigger a global financial problem. In our latest Q&A, Portfolio Manager Teresa Kong, CFA and Investment Strategist Andy Rothman provide their views and insights.

The value rebound that started in September 2020 gave up nearly half its gains by mid-May 2021 as the recovery faltered with the onslaught of the highly contagious Delta variant. But vaccination has proven highly effective, and as the unvaccinated around the world become vaccinated, the prospect of a reinvigorated economy is good. Is now a second chance to rebalance into value stocks?

It was 35 years ago this month that I began my career on Wall Street. In thinking about those three-and-a-half decades, I decided to shift tack with today’s report and ask readers to indulge me as I ruminate about what I’ve learned during these decades.

In December, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to announce the retirement of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) next March. But how will the central bank manage this process? And what will this mean for euro-area bond yields?

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

The inflation outlook has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. So far, this has had only a minor impact on financial asset pricing, but bond yields may be a coiled spring at risk of painfully adjusting higher when investors eventually discover inflation is an issue.

One of the most crucial components of investing in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is assessing the underlying collateral value. But what if investors are disregarding risks that threaten a property’s very existence?

It’s becoming more and more difficult to be in the fossil fuel business. On both sides of the Atlantic, lawmakers and unelected bureaucrats are turning up the heat, so to speak, on companies over the issue of climate change.

Today we’ll take another walk through the inflation debate. Is it still transitory or should we expect a light-1970s inflation going forward? The answer is critically important.

In a win (but not a complete victory) for “team transitory,” the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in August (+0.3%, up just 0.1% excluding food and energy). Areas that were running hot a few months ago (used cars, vehicle rentals, car insurance, airfares) retreated.

House Democrats have proposed a higher top individual tax rate and changes to the capital gains tax. Both are a long way from becoming law.

Market update from BlackRock's municipal bond team.

We don’t disagree the S&P 500 could well hit a target of 5000. But, let us be honest about the reasons why...

The bond market has been in hibernation for months, and investors may have become complacent about risks.

It's been a good year for U.S. stocks, but is the run nearing an end?

Are These 2 Stocks Better Than Bonds? Can a case really be made to use blue-chip dividend paying stocks as bond substitutes? This is a very controversial question that has existed in the investment community since I have been involved over the past 50 years.

The active/passive debate frequently focuses on equities, where active approaches have historically underperformed passive strategies. The story is decidedly different in the world of fixed income, where active managers can more easily exploit mispricing and other inefficiencies.

Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September...

Real interest rates on Treasuries have been strongly negative throughout 2021. But why do investors keep piling into these negative “real” yielding assets? BlackRock’s systematic investment experts decode the markets to reveal why rates are so disconnected from fundamental values and what it means for your bond portfolio.