How Much Debt Is Too Much?
The new conventional wisdom in these unconventional times is that advanced-economy governments can take advantage of today's ultra-low interest rates to borrow and spend without limit in order to support the economy. But the fact is that there is always a limit, and it may come into view sooner than many realize.
Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices
Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.
Moving Averages Update: November Up 10.75%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2020.
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 10.75% after a loss of 2.77% in October. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — an increase from last month's triple"invested" signal.
Has the Size Premium Disappeared?
Small-cap stocks have underperformed the broader markets since the “discovery” of the size premium in 1981. But research shows that a segment of those small-cap stocks have performed well and that now is a compelling time to invest in them.
Yellen May Restore Treasury-Fed Cooperation, With Eye on GOP
As Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen is almost certain to pursue tighter coordination with the U.S. Federal Reserve next year -- repairing recent frictions -- though observers say she will be careful to avoid any specific move that could trigger a wave of Republican protests.
Distressed Credit Opportunities on Rise Amid Uncertainties in Middle Markets
Liquidity issues and other business risks could prompt a wave of defaults and restructurings, in turn creating fertile ground for opportunistic investing in distressed credit.
Income Fund Update: Navigating an Uneven Recovery
We are cautiously optimistic about economic growth over the next year, but over the longer term, disruptive factors will likely contribute to heightened volatility and lower returns across both fixed income and equity markets.
‘Big War’ in Bonds Escalates as Treasury Rift Puts Fed in Play
The tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month.
How Active Short‑Term Strategies Can Fill the Void Left by the Diminished Money Market Landscape
Amid an environment of near-zero benchmark and T-bill yields, for a modest increase in risk, PIMCO's short-term strategies may offer higher levels of total return and income for stepping beyond the confines of money market fund strategies.