Municipal Bonds

The GMO Asset Allocation team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

Although easing US-China trade tensions have renewed investor optimism about global economic growth, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer still see some potential geopolitical headwinds on the horizon.

Ultimately, investors will awaken to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades.

Last New Year’s Eve, most would not have forecasted the extent of the gains experienced by the U.S. stock markets this year. On the heels of the worst December since 1931, the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) 180-degree turn, from restrictive to accommodative policy, fueled the S&P 500’s roughly 30 percent surge and pushed the U.S. economic expansion into record territory.

Looking ahead, we believe the global economic environment will remain supportive for securitized sectors despite potentially slowing economic growth. In the US, we believe strong fundamentals, including robust wage growth and healthy household balance sheets, will provide solid support for real estate and consumer-related credit.

2019 was a very unusual year. Domestic growth whipsawed from strong (over 3%) to concerning (just over 1%). This volatility was compounded by both domestic and global headline factors: a very public trade dispute and very weak global growth.

Now is the season for forecasting as one decade turns into the next. Pundits and market prognosticators too often treat nowcasts as true market forecasts, which can be very dangerous for investors’ financial health. Our forecasts for the decade ahead rely on empirically driven quantitative models.

The problem with low interest rates for so long is they have encouraged the misallocation of capital. We see it everywhere throughout the entirety of the financial system from consumer debt, to subprime auto-loans, to corporate leverage, and speculative greed.

A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.

Every year, the markets provide us with lessons on prudent investment strategies. Many times, markets offer investors remedial courses, covering lessons it had taught in previous years. That’s why one of my favorite sayings is that there’s nothing new in investing, only investment history you don’t yet know.

Central bank easing and the cooling China-U.S. trade war have set the scene for a global economic rebound in 2020. Our forecast pushes the risk of recession into late 2021, giving equity markets modest upside potential for 2020.

As Mark Twain once said, history never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme. The House vote to impeach President Trump coming in mid-December of 2019 certainly feels like a couplet with the Clinton impeachment, which occurred in mid-December 21 years ago. Indeed, there are similarities, but also key distinctions.

The many gloomy predictions for 2019 did not come to pass, but can we be more optimistic for 2020? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai draws the key lessons from last year and outlines what we should expect for the year ahead and her main concerns, with political uncertainty top of the list.

Despite Sauron and Einstein’s failed attempts at unified theory, 2019 was simply the tenth year whereby interest rates were low and went lower, credit remained both cheap and plentiful, the economy was “good enough,” and those who can print money re-dedicated themselves to a willingness to print money. The logical conclusion to this set of events is to buy and hold U.S. equities. Drop the mic—again.

One of our favorite financial writers is Bloomberg’s John Authers. He recently wrote a tongue-in-cheek article about an investment company by the name of Hindsight Capital. In hindsight, or in the company’s case, Hindsight Capital, he talked about what the firm did and what you should have done over the last ten years to produce outstanding returns.

A new decade, seismic shifts and the importance of diversification.

Research Affiliates provides its outlook for 2020 and discusses where it sees attractive return opportunities across the globe.

Risk assets begin 2020 at lofty price levels. Are stocks fully valued, or rather a relative value versus global bonds?

Read a conversation with Thornburg Chief Investment Strategist Brian McMahon who surveys the unfolding investment landscape.

What really is a bet? How does one make decisions under uncertainty and with imperfect information? In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves his own life story to discuss the process of thinking in bets, parses the world of gambling, and draws parallels between investing and games of chance.

Good economic news over the last couple months belies the fact that a recession could strike as soon as March 2020.

Comparison-created unhappiness and insecurity is pervasive, judging from the amount of spam touting everything from weight-loss to plastic surgery. The basic principle seems to be that whatever we have is enough, until we see someone else who has more. Whatever the reason, comparison in financial markets can lead to remarkably bad decisions.

We expect European investment grade bonds to post slightly positive excess returns in 2020. We believe the sector stands to benefit from healthy supply and demand balances, likely offsetting tight valuations and weakening fundamentals.

This is the year-end letter I sent to our clients. Feel free to adapt it for your own use.

In Part 1 of this forecast I described my relatively benign outlook for the next 12 months. The calm may last into 2021 and even beyond. But beneath the surface, pressure will still be increasing. It will grow slowly, almost imperceptibly, but eventually explode.

On Tuesday of this week, the U.S. dollar experienced a “death cross,” a bearish signal that takes places when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen this from the greenback since May 2017.

With this article I am going to present several ways that investors, especially retired investors, can beat the market without fail. However, what I will be presenting may not be what you are expecting, particularly if you have a narrow notion of what beating the market means.

With bond yields near record lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns in 2020 without forcing investors to take too much risk? From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, we assess today’s biggest challenges—and opportunities.

As we kick off the new year, market prognosticators are busy making their 2020 predictions. David Mann, our Head of Capital Markets, Global Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), offers some thoughts on trends and milestones within the ETF industry he thinks could come to fruition in 2020.

The US investment grade (IG) corporate bond market is coming off an exceptionally strong year. Declining interest rates coupled with sharply narrower credit spreads contributed to strong absolute and relative returns.

Always being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle can help you actively manage your investments while taking advantage of emerging profit opportunities and more importantly protect your wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines. This exceptionally long business cycle appears set to emerge from its third growth slowdown and has now reached the stage where a cyclical bull market in commodities can be expected.

A few months ago, we published a paper called Institutional investor best practice by 2025. In this paper, we addressed how investors will need to fundamentally change how they approach capturing opportunities, mitigating risks and managing costs within their investment portfolios to set themselves up for success in 2025 and beyond.

Expect a steeper yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should be “defensive” with respect to long-term bonds. Gold will go up, inflation will be subdued, there is a 30% to 35% chance of recession and – his “highest conviction” idea – the dollar will weaken. His most surprising prediction was who will be the Democratic nominee.

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.

After an astounding 2019, what’s in store for 2020? Russ discusses.

Let’s walk through the first 20 years of the new millennium and the lessons for the next 20 years.

DC plan sponsors are increasingly using TDFs that blend active and passive strategies to seek lower fees and enhanced alpha potential.

Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.

Welcome to the 2020s. Some weren’t sure we would make it this far, but we did. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. How we handle them will determine what kind of conversation we have in 2030.

I’m optimistic that the U.S. will stand as a beacon of freedom and opportunity in the 2020s and beyond, but with more and more younger Americans supporting socialism over capitalism, I believe it prudent to proceed with caution. That means making sure you’re holding some gold in your portfolio.

Investor optimism remained strong in the first day of trading 2020, but news that the US. Military had assassinated an Iranian general sent share prices lower. The price of oil rose and bond yields fell in response to heightened uncertainty.

What can investors expect this year? Continued economic expansion, unaltered interest rates and new equity highs, says CIO Larry Adam.

Valid until the market close on January 31, 2019.

The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly gain of 2.86% after a gain of 3.40% in November. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "invested" and all five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), iShares Barclay 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "invested".

A sweeping piece of legislation affecting how individuals save and invest for their retirement, known as the “SECURE Act,” has recently been signed into law. Our investment professionals talk about the implications of the Act, and how it can enhance the retirement security of millions of Americans. And, they outline some changes in the legislation that also affect college savings plans.

One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. We’ve certainly observed this sort of selectivity during the past year. The market advance in 2019 fully recovered the market losses of late-2018, fueled by a wholesale reversal of Fed policy, hopes for a “phase one” trade deal, and as noted below, a bit of confusion about what actually constitutes “quantitative easing.”

Great articles don’t always get the readership they deserve. We’ve already posted the 10 most-widely read articles for the past year. Below are another 10 that you might have missed, but I believe merit reading…

As is our custom, we conclude the year by reflecting on the 10 most-read articles over the past 12 months. In decreasing order, based on the number of unique readers, those are…

What were the top financial news stories of 2019? To answer that question, Frank looks back at his five most visited articles from the year that was.

Our senior investment leaders have a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2020. They still do not see a global recession looming and believe there are plenty of reasons to remain invested.

Sustainable investing has come a long way. In its early days, investment managers, like Saturna Capital, created faith-based investment processes, focused on excluding companies or industries that conflicted with the tenets of an investor’s faith. This led to proactive investing, often referred to as advocacy investing, a process that encourages companies, sectors, and regions to engage in better business practices.

Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020.

The economic calendar is very light and interrupted by the mid-week holiday. We can always see volatility when volume is low, but many market participants will be on an extended holiday. This includes much of the A-team punditry, but someone will be left to fill the airtime.

The growth of personal savings and investment in China of the last few years has a parallel in the boom in the “old Northwest” of the U.S. following the War of 1812. The parallel carries a fateful lesson for the future of China.

Investing is never easy, especially these days, as internal political factions and international relations are so divided and yet so important to predict. That said, despite all our stress and complaints, prior generations would say that relative to their experience, we actually live in calm and prosperous times.

Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.

Municipal bonds can continue to provide a number of potential benefits for tax-sensitive investors as we move into 2020, according to Shelia Amoroso, director of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group’s Municipal Bond Department. However, following the strong results in 2019, she and the team expect total return potential to be muted in 2020, with likely increased volatility.

David Ellison manages the Hennessy Large Cap Financial Fund (HLFNX) and the Small Cap Financial Fund (HSFNX), both of which have outperformed their benchmarks since their inception in 1997. Dave has been recognized by Morningstar as the most tenured mutual fund portfolio manager in the financial services sector. I spoke with Dave on December 12.

While some cook with a dash of this and a dash of that, the best chefs follow a recipe to a T. Without abiding by a set of instructions, you’re at risk of inconsistent results or worse, omitting steps altogether. Sugarless baked goods rank right up there with eating cardboard. And too much of even basic spices can ruin any dish. Overcooked foods can be dry or burnt. Undercooked foods can cause illness. Clearly, following a recipe precisely is essential.

Rates were unpredictable, central banks were active, trade was volatile but consumers were undaunted. We reflect on the major economic trends of 2019.

There is almost no willingness to face our top problems, specifically our rising debt. The economic challenges we face can’t continue, which is why I expect the Great Reset, a kind of worldwide do-over. It’s not the best choice but we are slowly ruling out all others.

Stock market participants remained optimistic, despite impeachment. The economic data were mixed, but consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy.

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro Capital Management’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2020 could bring.

President Trump called it “amazing,” and U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer said the China deal is “remarkable.” In my view, however, it is merely the best trade deal in the last 36 months of Chinese history, and it falls well short of two key objectives. Because the deal sets highly unrealistic goals for U.S. exports to China...

Muni issuers are increasingly refinancing tax-exempt munis in the taxable market, but both areas offer potential benefits.

Global growth is decelerating. Policy-makers in developed economies are gearing up for yet more fiscal spending. While fiscal spending may support growth for a short time, and for longer if very carefully applied, it will not change the growth outlook fundamentally.

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their theme of “1.8.”

Once upon a time—of all the good days in the year, on Christmas Eve—old Ebenezer Scrooge sat busy in his counting-house. Rise from your bed, O Investor and hear first from our very own Ghosts of Investing Past, Present and Yet to Come.

While US-China trade tensions and other concerns prompt a cautionary stance when it comes to risk assets, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer nonetheless remain positive about the US equity market in the year ahead, citing a number of long-term growth drivers that still remain in place.

Next year is set to start on a high note, with consumers and the Fed keeping the economy and market afloat; but risks remain elevated, including trade and elections.

While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, while low-yielding gilts look unattractive relative to other government debt, such as U.S. Treasuries.

Investors could be in for a bumpy year ahead, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai. She emphasizes the importance of separating the facts from the headlines, but also thinks it’s a good time to look to “de-risk” portfolios to some extent, while still remaining invested.

Let me tell you about some really powerful tools that will engage clients more deeply and bring your ongoing client service to life.

If the Fed is papering over problems in the overnight funding market, we are left to question its understanding of global funding markets and the global banking system’s ability to weather a more significant disruption than the preview we observed in September.

What happened? UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party won yesterday’s election in a landslide, taking 365 seats. With a majority of 80 seats, the Conservatives have their largest majority since 1987. Ultimately, the country wanted to “Get Brexit Done” too.