US Inflation Figures
Andrew Milliner, Global Bonds Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors, has put together the below comments in reaction to current U.S. inflation figures and what it means for the economy and markets moving forward. Please let me know if you have any questions or wish to further discuss with Andrew.
Will COVID-19 Accelerate Euro-Area Integration?
Widespread lockdowns have resulted in record output declines and soaring debt across the euro area. But the political response to the COVID-19 crisis may be positive for the European integration project—and for euro-area bond markets.
Three Fixed Income Predictions for the Roaring 2020’s
Today, we find ourselves with particularly high confidence in the likelihood of three scenarios to which we believe all investors should be paying close attention. First, we anticipate the current market euphoria will likely last through the summer.
Mind the (rate expectation) gap
Markets are pricing in a liftoff from near-zero policy rates as early as next year, even though the Fed through its new framework has committed to stay behind the curve on inflation. We caution against extrapolating too much from strong near-term activity data amid a powerful restart. We see a high bar for the Fed to change its policy stance and believe this may be underappreciated by markets.
The Valid and Not-So-Valid Reasons for Rejecting Annuities
A host of impediments stand in the way of allocating funds to annuities. Some issues relate to brokers or advisors, and others involve their clients. Some are valid, but others are questionable and reflect irrational behavioral biases.
No Country Has Ever Taxed Itself into Prosperity
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”