Moderna and Pfizer recently announced they had potential vaccines for COVID-19 that are more than 90% effective. With that, the market surged, and a rotation into “economically sensitive” sectors occurred. While a “vaccine” will eventually come to the market, it will only ensure a return to the “New New Normal.”
Life Events
As Retirement Income Needs Grow, DC Plan Sponsors Weigh Solutions
As more plan participants worry about retirement income security, demand for guaranteed income solutions is growing—and plan sponsors are pondering the options.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
He May Never Walk Again
Even the most promising future can change drastically by a life-threatening event. A healthy individual may require around-the-clock care and supervision after an accident, creating the need to solve complex financial planning problems.
Retirement Planning in the Post-4% World
Today’s low bond yields and high equity valuations have led many to jettison the traditional 4% initial safe-withdrawal rate assumption. But I will show that the optimal “safe” withdrawal rate depends considerably on the retiree.
What the Pandemic Taught Us About Target Date Funds
Target date funds should be designed to reduce the risk of rash selling.
The Pandemic Has Exposed the Gap in Women’s Financial Needs
Increased marital stress is highlighting the financial challenges divorce brings, especially to women.
A Financial Advisor's Guide to Creating a Marketing Funnel
I will break down the levels of a standard marketing funnel and provide specific steps that financial advisors can take to create their own.
Financial Professionals Guide to Estate Planning
Let’s face it, estate planning tends to be boring, time-consuming, and complex. And with the current estate tax exclusion, some financial professionals feel estate planning impacts fewer and fewer people. Truth be told, estate planning isn’t just for the wealthy – it impacts every client you have. This presentation and the accompanying materials are designed to provide you with fundamental knowledge of must-know estate planning concepts.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Recovering at Different Speeds
Political change, continued fiscal support will drive municipal markets in 2021, although outcomes are likely to vary.
Powell’s Approach to Recovery, Inflation Will Test Union Loyalty
Jerome Powell enters the final year of his term as Federal Reserve chair enjoying the support of labor unions with influence in Joe Biden’s White House, an advantage as the administration prepares to decide later this year whether to reappoint the central bank chief.
Helping Clients Plan for Growth in Their Private Foundations
How can you help a family foundation plan for rapid growth in a way that is consistent with their wealth management objectives?
Lessons from a Shocking Apology
We can learn valuable lessons from T.J. Ducklo’s written apology.
Powell Urges ‘Society-Wide’ Push to Deliver Full Employment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market remains a long way from a full recovery and called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers.
Demographic Trends for the 50-and-Older Work Force
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
Investment Strategies for a Booster-Shot Recovery
Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her investment views and strategies for the post-pandemic recovery. She explains why inflation looks likely to gain steam, and how the balance of fundamentals and valuations become especially crucial today when looking for attractive returns in fixed income.
Make Valentine’s Day Count
The customary Valentine’s Day activities ignore the real issues many relationships face.
Will Demographic Trends Drive Higher Inflation and Interest Rates?
Powerful demographic trends will cause higher inflation and interest rates, and a reduction in inequality as labor reclaims its bargaining power in the global economy.
How to Spot a High-Conflict Person
While your chances of winning an argument on any given topic are slim, there’s one situation where it’s non-existent. That’s when you’re confronted with a high-conflict personality.
Burton Malkiel’s Misguided View of ESG Investing
Malkiel and other detractors who claim ESG is a fad are missing a key element in their arguments, namely that companies are incorporating sustainability into their operations both in response to – and increasingly quite apart from – the ESG investing trend.
Small Change and The Depression of 1837-1843 - Part Three
The purpose of the Constitutional gold standard was to establish a reference point against which the prices of credits and commodities were set by the open exchange of bank notes and other promises to pay money.
How to Choose a Sustainable Equity Portfolio
As inflows to sustainable equities break new records, here’s what investors should look for to identify portfolios that align with their responsible investing goals.
Power to the Players: Reddit, Robinhood and Bitcoin
Those of you with kids and grandkids may at some point have stepped inside a GameStop. If so, you might be familiar with the video game retailer’s tagline: “Power to the players.”
How Shopping—and Investing—Might Be Enabling Modern Slavery
It may seem shocking, but a simple trip to the local store to pick up fresh produce or clothing could enable human exploitation. For investors, those same connections can exist within their portfolios—and it takes more than a passive effort to root them out.
The Filibuster and the 2021 Legislative Agenda
A majority of the Senate (including two Democrats) has agreed to forego efforts to eliminate the filibuster during the Congressional term ending December 2022.
Democrats Aim for SALT Write-Off Expansion in Stimulus Bill
Two New Jersey Democrats are leading an effort to expand a valuable tax break for state and local levies in the next virus-relief package, a long-shot effort as lawmakers continue to squabble over the size and scope of the next round of stimulus.
Is Diversification Dead?
Over the last dozen years, investors holding the classic US 60/40 portfolio were substantially better off than their diversified peers, yet now is not the time to abandon diversification and diversifying asset classes. We believe it is imprudent to trust that escalation in valuations will continue unabated into the next decade...
Three Things to Tell Your Clients About Retirement
The following three short stories, in addition to proper income planning, will lead clients to a happier and more fulfilling retirement.
The Best and Worst Investment (and other) Books of 2020
It has been my tradition to informally rate the investment-related books I read in the past year. I have also included some novels and books of general interest. Here is my list of winners and losers.
How to Develop a Content Strategy
I’m going to help you get your financial advisory firm’s content strategy off the ground with a few basic steps.
The Illusion Of Soaring Savings Amid Rising Economic Uncertainty
The illusion of surging savings rates or the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates the real economic problems and fosters the belief that monetary policies are working. They aren’t.
Yellen Opens Debate on Giant Spending, Saying the ‘World Has Changed’
Janet Yellen invoked an enduring era of low interest rates in delivering the Biden administration’s opening argument to lawmakers for its $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal.
Trump Leaves Town an Outcast, Trailed by Pandemic, Job Losses
Donald Trump departs Washington on Wednesday with Americans more politically divided and more likely to be out of work than when he arrived, while awaiting trial for his second impeachment -- an ignominious end to one of the most turbulent presidencies in American history.
Yellen Runs Into GOP Resistance to ‘Act Big’ Call for Stimulus
Janet Yellen encountered early Republican resistance to President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan in her confirmation hearing to become Treasury secretary Tuesday, as she sought backing for what she described as vital support for the economy.
Biden’s $2 Trillion Stimulus Plan – Implications For The Economy
This enormous stimulus plan will have numerous effects on the economy, including the likely loss of millions of jobs, which the media doesn’t report, so that’s what we’ll talk about today.
The Speculative “V”
The speculative “V” is one of the most interesting and challenging features of the market cycle. For passive investors, it can be a period of exhilaration followed by panic.
Why the B Corp Certification Matters
The B corp certification, which started in 2006, recognizes for-profit companies that use business as a force for good.
Monthly Municipal Market Update, December 2020
A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.
Here Are the Major Parts of $1.9 Trillion Biden Relief Plan
President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan is designed to both pump money into the economy and contain the coronavirus pandemic.
U.S. Population Is Growing at Slowest Pace Since World War II
America’s population is growing at the slowest rate since World War II, threatening to undermine demand and investment in the economy, according to a new blog post from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Scar Tissue: Weak Jobs Report Emphasizes COVID’s Scars
Last week was shocking and extraordinarily sad; and as if Americans didn’t have enough with which to contend, it was capped off by a weaker-than-expected December jobs report.
Economic Commentary: Senate, Stimulus, and Brexit
The Senate outcome opens the door to future cooperation, while Brexit sets the stage for future frictions.
Year of the Gripping Hand
This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021.
How to Double the Size of an Investment Firm in a Pandemic
Doubling the size of an investment advisory firm is hard even without a pandemic. But Dave Welling, the chief executive officer of Mercer Advisors and this week’s guest on the Masters in Business podcast, did it.
LIBOR’s Slow Phase-Out Continues
LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.
A Prescription for Financial Anxiety
Sticking to the “3Ps” – plan, process and persistence provides a prescription to alleviate that financial anxiety.
The State of the Profession – and What to Look for in the Coming Year
I'm going to assess the state of the profession as we emerge, exhausted, from our tumultuous 2020 experience.
Estate Planning Tips for 2021
As we head into a new year and a change of administration in Washington, advisors should be discussing several estate planning considerations with their clients.
Estate Planning: Benefits of a 529
Learn how 529 plans can help you:
• reduce current and future tax liability
• pass wealth on to children, grandchildren and future generations
• fully control assets even though assets are outside your estate
Why (and How) I Plan to Die With an Empty Bank Account: Farnoosh Torabi
If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that life is uncertain. Through this lens, I’ve started to abandon some conservative personal finance principles. This summer, for example, I went against the adage of “staying the course” with retirement and stuck my hand in my IRA to shed some stocks.
Parents Shouldn’t Wait to Pass Down Their Wealth: Erin Lowry
In the coming decades, a Great Wealth Transfer will be upon us. Gen Xers and Millennials are expected to inherit trillions of dollars. Some estimates say as much as $68 trillion will be passed down from Baby Boomers.
Back to (the New) Normal: Five Secular Growth Trends for 2021
The coronavirus pandemic was a once-in-a-lifetime event that transformed society and the economy almost overnight. We believe some of the most significant changes are likely here to stay, and we are focusing our investments on the secular growth trends we expect to strengthen as life returns to normal.
It’s Easier for a Woman to Become Chancellor Than CEO in Germany
Critics say it lacks both ambition and teeth.
Citi’s Record Promotions for Women Still Just 29% of Total
Citigroup Inc. promoted 70 women in its latest class of managing directors, the most ever but still less than a third of the total.
Overcoming Emotional Attachment To Equity Compensation
Helping clients understand why one position in their portfolio may be better than another can get tricky when it comes to their company’s stock and equity compensation.
Looking Back at 2020
From global responses to local lockdowns, we all witnessed dramatic changes in 2020.
The New Battles to Come Over Working From Home: Justin Fox
A lot of things can be expected to go back to normal once the Covid-19 pandemic is truly over. Restaurants, cruise ships and resort towns will be packed again. Spending on home improvements will subside.
America’s Zombie Companies Rack Up $2 Trillion of Debt
They were once America’s corporate titans. Beloved household names. Case studies in success.
Real Estate Disruptions Accelerate Active Opportunities
Real estate is no exception to COVID-19’s disruptions, accelerating trends, and shifting how we live, consume, and work.
Even More Tech Firms Are Leaving Silicon Valley for Texas
“This garage is the birthplace of the world’s first high-technology region, Silicon Valley,” the marker reads. It names two Stanford students, William Hewlett and David Packard, who “in 1938 began developing their first product, an audio oscillator, in this garage.”
What You Can Learn from Three Exceptional Personal Brands
In the past, I’ve written about how to brand and market your firm. Today, I’m taking a different tack. How do you brand … yourself?
Robots Once Seen as Job Killers Now Protect Workers From Covid
For decades, the attitude of unions and their advocates to increased automation could be summed up in one word: no. They feared that every time a machine was slipped into the workflow, a laborer lost a job.
The High Financial Cost of Gray Divorce
As devastating financially as a frivolous lawsuit may be to one’s wealth, it’s nowhere near what I consider the number-one destroyer of financial wealth – divorce.
Costly Medicare Missteps to Avoid in 2021
As we complete another round of annual election period craziness in Medicare, it’s time to pause, reflect and figure out what in the heck to help you all with next year!
Slow Brexit, Overloaded Shippers, Growing Fed Balance Sheet
Brexit negotiations had another unproductive week. Parcel shipping volumes are breaking records. And when and why might the Fed alter its asset purchases?
Are You Using Your CRM to Its Fullest Potential?
Whether you’re looking to dust off your CRM software and learn to better use its features, or you’re looking to make a CRM investment for the first time, here’s what you need to know.
Emerging-Markets’ Prospects Bright, Even If Risks Never Far Away
For all the risks of a year-end cooling-off period, emerging-market backers can’t complain about the lie of the land right now.
Twenty Rules for Life: Morgan Housel’s Antidote to Financial Chaos
In a fascinating little book, The Psychology of Money, the investment manager Morgan Housel provides more useful self-help advice than most authors who explicitly set out to do so.
Income is the outcome, Part 1
Passage of last year's SECURE Act may spark increased adoption of lifetime income products in defined contribution plans. Here's why.
Elites on the Edge
Two weeks ago I talked about Peter Turchin’s idea of “elite overproduction” leading to social and economic crisis. While he doesn’t have any solutions, Turchin helps illuminate how we reached this point. Today we’ll go a little deeper and think about the implications.
The Case for a Defensive Allocation
Over the last six months, my firm has skewed its portfolio towards defense companies. We have done this intentionally. The world is less safe today than at any time since the Berlin Wall came down.
How Wrong Was Milton Friedman? Harvard Team Quantifies the Ways
George Serafeim wants to revolutionize the way businesses calculate their success.
Radically Rethinking Your Process for Converting Prospects
It’s time to consider an entirely different approach to your process for converting prospects.
The Misguided Role of Institutional Investors in Climate Change
The institutional investor’s role in the effort to combat climate change is misplaced.
The Financial Fire Trucks of 2021
A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page.
Vaccine Hopes Shouldn’t Drive Healthcare Investing Strategies
Healthcare stocks are once again in focus as a result of promising news of COVID-19 vaccines. But investors shouldn’t hunt for the pandemic’s panacea. Focusing on business fundamentals is a much better way to find healthcare stocks with long-term potential than searching for the next big drug.
Selecting Professionals for Special Needs Planning
Unfortunately, very few professionals are well versed in this highly specialized area of planning. The results of an improperly designed plan can be devastating for beneficiary children with disabilities.
#MacroView: A Vaccine And The “New New Normal”
Moderna and Pfizer recently announced they had potential vaccines for COVID-19 that are more than 90% effective. With that, the market surged, and a rotation into “economically sensitive” sectors occurred. While a “vaccine” will eventually come to the market, it will only ensure a return to the “New New Normal.”
Harvey Weinstein Is Covid-Free But Advisers Say His Health Declines
Harvey Weinstein has tested negative for Covid-19 but his representatives say he’s in “critical” condition.
U.S. Housing Starts Increased More Than Forecast in October
U.S. new home construction rose in October by more than forecast to the fastest pace since February, highlighting a robust residential real estate market that’s helping spur the economy.
Four Habits to Get More Referrals
Here are four habits to incorporate into your daily routine that will trigger referral activity.
New Research on Top Digital Marketing Practices
Here are the key characteristics that distinguish highly successful digital-marketing practices.
US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Resilience and Vulnerability in Emerging Markets
The US elections have implications for emerging markets in the area of global trade relations in particular, but for investors, it’s important to look at countries and companies individually within the asset class, according to Portfolio Manager Andrew Ness. He joins our Head of Equities Stephen Dover to discuss how emerging markets are navigating today’s challenges—including the COVID-19 pandemic—and note they are home to some of the most innovative and resilient companies in the world.
US 2020 Election Investment Pulse: Neutral to Positive for Municipals
In coming years, US Congress and the Biden administration could implement spending programs and tax reforms at the national level that trickle down into state and local government policies too. Our Katie Klingensmith joined Muni Bond Team Research Director Jennifer Johnston to discuss the potential implications for the municipal bond market, against a backdrop of COVID-19.
A Third of the World’s Air Routes Have Been Lost Due to Covid
Before the coronavirus, a decades-long aviation boom spawned a network of nearly 50,000 air routes that traversed the world. In less than a year, the pandemic has wiped almost a third of them off the map.
Are You Psychologically Ready to Retire?
For some of my clients, retirement has not been what they imagined or hoped it would be; particularly for a generation of men who didn’t come to terms with the loss of their career identity or finding new and appealing ways to stay active.
Leveraging Tech Tools to Grow and Scale Your Practice
During the recent Advisor Perspectives Thought Leader Summit, two of the industry’s most respected experts shared their best practices and insights on growing and scaling your business with fintech solutions.
Toward a Truly Diverse Profession
The profession has a diversity and inclusion problem. Look at the speakers pictured on the advertisements for financial planning conferences, and you see white men in business suits with occasional white women.
Three Examples of Great Advisor Content Marketing
Want your content to start working harder? Here are three steps to take immediately.
Have Your Elder Loved Ones Planned for the Long Term?
It is scary and overwhelming to address long-term planning. But the lack of planning is disheartening to those left to address a crisis, as was the case with David, an 80-year-old man.
NYC, Washington Storefronts Boarded Up Ahead of Possible Unrest
Temporary extra fencing has been erected around the White House, plywood affixed to storefronts in Manhattan and the National Guard put on notice in Portland, Oregon, as U.S. cities braced for possible unrest on election day.