Leveraged and Inverse Funds

I don’t say this often, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is wrong. Regular readers of our investor letters and other publications will recall that we regularly cite Chairman Powell as doing the best he can with the levers he has while arguing correctly for others to do their part.

Relative value currently favors floating-rate loans over high-yield bonds.

As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.

Fortunately, human behavior has a history of repeating itself at extremes. The worst buying decisions are made at the top. Just like bonds, the convexity is true when yields rise going forward. It’s a slippery slope and could be vexing.

At some point, interest rates will move higher. Advisors must understand the inherent risks, and proactively evaluate alternatives for their fixed income portfolios to manage through successfully.

2021 has certainly started off interesting. From Reddit readers chasing the most heavily shorted stocks, to the new Administration discussing more stimulus, investors have had plenty to deal with. A market review seems appropriate as the bulls seem to remain bulletproof even as the mania grows.

It’s hoped that an extra $1,400 in the pockets of everyday Americans may help support lagging U.S. consumption. We believe the stimulus, along with improved vaccine roll out, may also help support commercial air travel.

Treasury yields continued to march higher in January, with the move again concentrated in longer maturities. Mortgage spreads tightened slightly, while corporate bond spreads were mostly mixed. The market remains stuck between the push/pull of the prospect for greater fiscal stimulus and ongoing vaccine rollout versus continued lockdowns and the greatest one-month mortality rate since the pandemic began nearly a year ago.

Collateralized loan obligations are the largest source of demand in the loan market. Cheryl Stober breaks down some key drivers of CLO manager behavior.

Internet message boards are lighting up and certain stocks have seen some unusually dramatic price moves. David Mann, our Head of Global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Capital Markets, ponders whether ETFs could be subject to similar volatility.

Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.”

The Fed recognizes their ongoing monetary interventions have created financial risks in terms of asset bubbles. They are also aware that most policy tools are likely ineffective at mitigating financial risks in the future. Such leaves them being dependent on expanding their balance sheet as their primary weapon.

The rationale behind the meteoric rise of Gamestop, a chain of videogame rental stores, and AMC, one of the nation’s largest cinema operators, is too unlikely to be believed. In just one month both stocks had risen by more than 600%.

Bank loans offer some of the highest yields in the current interest rate environment. We believe their unique characteristics may prevent many investors from considering them, but it may be a mistake to overlook them.

The Mortgage and Structured Finance Sector Team discusses key themes in the securitized market in 2021.

For all Millennial readers, if you visited a casino in your lifetime only to see your money quickly disappear, you have not seen anything compared to trading versus professionals. So to all you Robinhood traders I say, “Welcome to the Jungle.”

The illusion of surging savings rates or the decline in the debt-to-income ratios obfuscates the real economic problems and fosters the belief that monetary policies are working. They aren’t.

We can’t predict the future. If we could, fortune tellers would all win the lottery. They don’t, we can’t, and we aren’t going to try. However, this doesn’t stop the annual parade of Wall Street analysts from putting out forecasts on the S&P 500.

Our K2 Advisors team is optimistic about the opportunity set in the year ahead, and thinks that active management alpha will be key to success in 2021. Brooks Ritchey and Robert Christian provide the team’s first-quarter hedge-fund strategy outlook.

The trouble with bubbles is they prey on human weakness. They are also high impact investment events.

Loomis Sayles' Global Credit Sector Team shares their outlook on key themes in the euro credit space.

Credit markets have staged an epic rebound from the depths of March 2020. But in a low-growth, low-yield world, we believe there may be more room to run in 2021.

The US state of Georgia held January runoff elections that determined two Democrats as their US senators, giving the Democratic Party control of the legislative and executive branches through 2022.

The Loomis Sayles Emerging Markets Debt Sector Team shares their views on corporate spreads, foreign exchange and leverage in 2021.

The dichotomy of “value” and “growth” investing has become a sharp stylistic divide. But is it helpful? Howard Marks writes in his latest memo how he views the art and science of value investing, especially in the increasingly efficient and complex world we face today.

Whereas commodity production had been a major economic driver in emerging markets, we think technology is now the leading force. Semiconductor advancement is the “new oil.” semiconductor companies are so far ahead of their competitors that supply is in fact a constraint—and therefore a major investment consideration.

As we enter 2021, there are two myths told to investors to support the bull market narrative. The first, as we debunked recently, is that low-interest rates justify high valuations. The second is that since valuations are not as high as the “dot.com” crisis, there is no “stock market bubble.”

Ashish Chugh discusses his outlook on EM equities in 2021.

As we have noted previously, one cannot practically ignore the celebration regarding our annual lap around the sun, although I think it’s fair to say that there are roughly 7.5 billion people outside of Silicon Valley—or those who run large cap growth/tech funds—that are delighted to see 2020 declared over.

Policymakers around the world share the challenges of containing the renewed outbreak and supporting those affected by it.

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro Capital Management’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2021 could bring.

As the new year begins, the investment grade (IG) market faces multiple challenges, including a recovering economy, low yields, tight spreads, and record high duration. At the same time, market technicals remain favorable, fundamentals are improving, and there are attractive sectors in the index. Overall, we are modestly bullish about 2021 and feel there are compelling opportunities for those who know where to look.

Insurers generally take a narrow approach to investing in the securitized sector, usually through allocations in their investment grade fixed income reserve portfolios.

In the current bull market advance, few people are willing to sell, so buyers must keep bidding up prices to attract a seller to make a transaction. As long as this remains the case, and exuberance exceeds logic, buyers will continue to pay higher prices to get into the positions they want to own.

Although some on the committee agreed with the market consensus for a moderate continuation of economic growth and equity markets, the majority agreed with a more positive scenario in which the global economy outperforms market consensus, while equities, especially those outside of the US, rally sharply.

In October, I discuss how the “2nd Derivative Effect” would mute the impact of future stimulus programs. With the passage of the $900 billion stimulus package, we can update the estimates for the economic impact heading into 2021.

“Maybe this time is different. Those words, supposedly the most dangerous to utter in the investing realm, came to mind amid the frenzied pops in the highly anticipated initial public offerings recently.” That quote was from Randall Forsyth discussing why the current market mania reminds him of the “Shades of 1999.”

From global responses to local lockdowns, we all witnessed dramatic changes in 2020.

There is much to debate about the current level of interest rates and future stock market returns. However, what is clear is the 40-year decline in rates did not mitigate two extremely nasty bear markets since 1998, just as falling rates did not mitigate the crash in 1929 and the subsequent depression.

With a COVID-19 vaccine rolling out and markets enjoying a post-election relief rally, credit investors may be asking “is there any opportunity left?”

Recent SOE bond defaults signal Beijing’s willingness to let markets price risk more accurately.

The two Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5 will be among the most important elections in our lifetimes, whether you are a conservative or a liberal. As a result, enormous and unprecedented amounts of outside money are gushing into these runoffs.

We believe traditional fixed income should continue to provide a reliable source of diversification against a growth shock, but low rates and the risk of an inflation shock necessitate broadening the menu of diversifiers.

Many market participants expect major economies to follow a path to recovery similar to China’s, but we see three key factors that suggest China’s recovery may be on its own trajectory.

Although investors don’t normally think about trash when they’re looking for growth stocks, we believe the solid waste industry is well-positioned to outperform. In our view, the combination of high barriers to entry, stable demand, and opportunities for consolidation should provide reliable revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

More than most years, it’s hard to look ahead to the next year, to 2021, without looking back at 2020. A global pandemic, a massive economic collapse, a bear market, a surprisingly sharp reversal, a hotly contested election where passions ran high, the impact of lockdowns—it was an unusual year of extraordinary challenges.

The rally in energy companies is likely premature. To understand why such may be the case, we have to review a bit of history.

We highlight the reasons behind our pro-risk stance in our 2021 outlook in the weekly commentary.

There appears to be a few huge statistical bargains available in the stock market based on the simplified version of Benjamin Graham’s intrinsic value calculation.

Franklin Small Cap Value Fund Assistant Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst Nick Karzon gives five reasons why we continue to see attractive long-term opportunities for select small-capitalization (small-cap) P&C insurers.

Some changes unfold over time and it’s possible to see them coming. There are demographic changes coming in the next decade that will change the direction of the U.S., since the Silent generation and the Baby Boomers hold a different view of government than Gen Z’s and Millennials.