CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for October, released last week, shows that core inflation is below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.41%. The October Core Consumer Price Index release is higher at 1.61%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Understanding How Investing in a Qualified Opportunity Zone Fund Can Provide Capital Gains Tax Relief
The “Investing in Opportunity Act” included in the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, passed in December 2017, introduced an innovative way to stimulate private investment in low-income communities. The program rewards investors with significant tax savings for their commitment of long-term investment capital. Join us for an in-depth educational presentation about Qualified Opportunity Zone Funds (QOZFs).
How Much Debt Is Too Much?
The new conventional wisdom in these unconventional times is that advanced-economy governments can take advantage of today's ultra-low interest rates to borrow and spend without limit in order to support the economy. But the fact is that there is always a limit, and it may come into view sooner than many realize.
Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices
Many have been puzzled that the world’s stock markets haven’t collapsed in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic downturn it has wrought. But with interest rates low and likely to stay there, equities will continue to look attractive, particularly when compared to bonds.
Moving Averages Update: November Up 10.75%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2020.
The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 10.75% after a loss of 2.77% in October. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — an increase from last month's triple"invested" signal.
World Markets Update: November 30, 2020
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through November 30, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 12.1%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a gain of 11.74% and in third is China's Shanghai with a gain of 11.2%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 16.92%.
Has the Size Premium Disappeared?
Small-cap stocks have underperformed the broader markets since the “discovery” of the size premium in 1981. But research shows that a segment of those small-cap stocks have performed well and that now is a compelling time to invest in them.
Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery?
After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation?