U.S. and China Sign a Deal, Inequality Eludes Measurement, Canada Leads with Fiscal Policy
Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.
Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.
Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.
New Beginnings With the Year of the Rat
Because it’s the first of the 12 zodiacs, the Year of the Rat is seen as a time of beginnings and renewals. That brings us hope, especially paired with the recent positive development in the U.S.-China trade war.
Nose Blind to Inflation
The Federal Reserve doesn’t see the inflation others notice. Their data says inflation isn’t a problem, so they ignore indications otherwise. We see this in their policy decisions. And it’s not just the Fed; other central banks, Wall Street analysts, economists, and politicians have the same affliction.
The Need for Private Credit
Private credit relies less on broad market trends and more on the strength of each specific investment. For individuals facing retirement, institutions looking to satisfy long-term pension liabilities or even private investors looking for alternative investments, it offers high current income, low correlations with public markets and lower default risks than yield spreads would imply.
Are We There Yet?
2019 was a very good year for investors. Surprisingly, both offensive and defensive sectors did well, which is a marked about-face compared with 2018. We believe this is mostly due to a central bank shift to policy easing, especially in the U.S., coupled with a relatively steady economy.
What is Good Government, and Why Is It So Rare and Precious?
Navigating between the despotic extreme of authoritarianism and the unbridled liberty of anarchism is the challenge of society in its quest for good government. A new book looks at the choices facing policymakers to achieve the proper balance and to improve the prospects of those countries outside the “narrow corridor” of effective governance that lies between those extremes.
Bitcoin Has Its Best Start to a Year Since 2012
Among the biggest contributors to the bitcoin rally is the hope that 2020 could finally see institutional investors move into the digital field en masse, prompted by growing client demand and more attractive ways to get exposure.
Forecasts or Nowcasts? What’s on the Horizon for the 2020s
Now is the season for forecasting as one decade turns into the next. Pundits and market prognosticators too often treat nowcasts as true market forecasts, which can be very dangerous for investors’ financial health. Our forecasts for the decade ahead rely on empirically driven quantitative models.