Factor-Based Investing

Valid until the market close on December 31, 2020.

The S&P 500 closed November with a monthly gain of 10.75% after a loss of 2.77% in October. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — an increase from last month's triple"invested" signal.

Take advantage of the 2020 annual gift tax exclusion of up to $15,000 ($30,000 for joint filers), without incurring federal gift tax.

Four of eight indexes on our world watch list posted YTD gains through November 30, 2020. The top performer is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 12.1%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in second with a gain of 11.74% and in third is China's Shanghai with a gain of 11.2%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 16.92%.

President-elect Joe Biden wants to reverse the decades-long trend that has seen workers get an ever smaller piece of the economic pie.

The escalating coronavirus pandemic could reverse decades of gains in the fight against poverty, as U.S. government aid for the vulnerable dries up.

Small-cap stocks have underperformed the broader markets since the “discovery” of the size premium in 1981. But research shows that a segment of those small-cap stocks have performed well and that now is a compelling time to invest in them.

To the extent that stock prices reflect expectations of future value, investors don’t like the prospects for oil, and oil’s demise signals muted prospects for economic growth.

The institutional investor’s role in the effort to combat climate change is misplaced.

We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.

Equity price gains in Japan may be driven by innovation over the long term. Portfolio manager Shuntaro Takeuchi discusses the opportunity set.

After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation?

We have recently written a couple of posts about the “exuberance” that has invaded the market since the election. Such is often seen near short- to intermediate-term peaks in markets as investors go “all-in” without a net.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 58.2 in November from 61.1 in October, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

So far this year, shares of HIVE Blockchain Technologies have soared an incredible 715%, well past Ethereum’s gain of 273%. 2020 has been marked by healthy expansion in mining capacity, the most recent example being HIVE’s acquisition of additional access to low-cost green energy.

With the release of this morning's report on October Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.81% month-over-month change in disposable income is unchanged when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.70% nominal and 0.53% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 5.72% nominal and 4.48% real.

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in October rose 0.78% and is up 2.2% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.78%. The real number is up 1.0% year-over-year.

Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits unexpectedly posted the first back-to-back weekly increase since July, while Americans’ incomes and savings fell last month.

Three alleged members of a prolific Nigerian cybercrime ring have been arrested in Lagos, part of a larger group that’s distributed malware, phishing campaigns and business email compromise scams affecting some 500,000 companies around the world.

As Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen is almost certain to pursue tighter coordination with the U.S. Federal Reserve next year -- repairing recent frictions -- though observers say she will be careful to avoid any specific move that could trigger a wave of Republican protests.

Record airline losses from the coronavirus outbreak will continue to mount next year as anticipated vaccination programs take time to revive travel demand, according to the industry’s main trade group.

The biggest private equity firms in the U.S. are unleashing a flurry of new leveraged buyouts and debt-funded dividends, seeking to make up for lost time after staying on the sidelines for much of 2020.

Subversive Capital Acquisition Corp., a special-purpose company that’s growing in the cannabis business, said it acquired two California companies and named Shawn “Jay-Z” Carter as its chief visionary officer.

We are cautiously optimistic about economic growth over the next year, but over the longer term, disruptive factors will likely contribute to heightened volatility and lower returns across both fixed income and equity markets.

This morning's seasonally adjusted 778K new claims, up 30K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 730K.

Health and wealth are connected, and a client’s health portfolio deserves the same expert attention that a financial advisor gives to their financial portfolio.

When we explore the specifics of an advisor’s business, there are commonly asked questions around the nuances between the SEC and FINRA.

Thanksgiving is supposed to be a special day. The reality is different, but a daily, five-minute exercise can transform it into the experience we all want.

Military veterans seeking the guidance of a financial advisor have a background and career that is different from civilian clients.

Navigating short-term risks is paramount, but we view the backdrop as favorable for income investors over the medium term.

Within the broader Asia Pacific universe, Portfolio Managers Yu Zhang and Joyce Li see attractive total return potential among dividend paying stocks.

Healthcare stocks are once again in focus as a result of promising news of COVID-19 vaccines. But investors shouldn’t hunt for the pandemic’s panacea. Focusing on business fundamentals is a much better way to find healthcare stocks with long-term potential than searching for the next big drug.

Since early August the “barbarous relic” has corrected some 9% while many other assets have ascended to all-time highs. This has no doubt caused a bit of consternation for holders of gold who have been using the metal not as a hedge, but as a capital appreciation vehicle unto itself.

In RBA’s latest report, Rich revisits the "Earnings Expectations Life Cycle" from the perspective of growth versus value investors and outlines why growth investors need to be contrarians in 2021.

With today's release of the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.27% increase month over month which is cut to 1.21% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 7% YoY increase.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for September. U.S. house prices were up 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 9.1% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.44% in September and up 7.95% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

The tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month.

In a year that saw corporate forecasts canceled faster than travel plans, the third-quarter U.S. earnings season brought a sense of normalcy with better-than-expected profits and rising forecasts. Now a second wave of Covid-19 infections and renewed lockdowns threaten to cloud those views.

A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds for decades was among the few venerated precepts in investing. Yet doubts about the approach grew after the pandemic hit and turned 2020 into a year like no other.

Amid historically low rates, the income solutions of yesterday are not going to cut it. Global X ETFs has recognized and reacted to this paradigm shift by developing alternative, higher-yielding strategies.

Amid historically low rates, the income solutions of yesterday are not going to cut it. My guest today will discuss how his firm has recognized and reacted to this paradigm shift by developing alternative, higher-yielding strategies.

Who's in charge of fiscal policy? That's the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the Treasury's decision to end certain emergency lending facilities by December 31, 2020.

The data used to construct ESG portfolios differs widely among providers, meaning that funds may not be aligned with your clients’ objectives and beliefs.

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-September, are now available.

Value managers often use static point in time multiples such as Book to Price to identify attractive companies. P/B is a “cheapness” indicator rather than a measure of a company’s intrinsic value, as it does not include the essential components to value a company: profitability, growth, competition, and risk. On the other hand, growth managers focus on a companies ability to growth their business assuming it will lead to creating shareholder value.

Amid an environment of near-zero benchmark and T-bill yields, for a modest increase in risk, PIMCO's short-term strategies may offer higher levels of total return and income for stepping beyond the confines of money market fund strategies.

Fair trade over free trade will remain the theme in Washington.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.83 in October from +0.32 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in October, and three of the four categories increased from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, fell to +0.75 in October from +1.37 in September.

Anne N. Mathias is a senior strategist for Vanguard and a member of the firm's Fixed Income Group, with a focus on global macroeconomics, interest rates, and foreign currency. I spoke with her about the outlook for the economy and the credit markets.

Gold “is a hedge on policymakers screwing up, and there has been a lot of screwing up in the last 20 years.”

A new normal is the norm. Changes are inevitable and therefore imaginable, even during this era of ever-growing technological breakthroughs such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, robo-everything, 5G, EVs, AVs, AI, VR, AR, and IoT.1 We remember when ecosystem referred to a Costa Rican rain forest.

It was a bumpy ride for corporate bond investors this year. After the sharp, pandemic-driven selloff in February and March, total returns for most corporate bond investments have climbed their way back into positive territory.

Whether you’re celebrating in-person or virtually, we’re wishing you and your family a Happy Thanksgiving! Giving thanks may seem difficult to do in a year that’s resulted in the loss of so many lives, jobs, and businesses, but we believe this holiday is the perfect time to reflect on all we are grateful for.

Global investors have been watching US President-Elect Joe Biden closely for clues as to how his administration intends to conduct relations with China.

In our view, inflation-fighting asset classes look considerably cheaper and offer higher long-term estimated returns than mainstream stocks and bonds.

Restaurants already endured lengthy shutdowns that hobbled the industry. Now, a new wave of bans on indoor dining from Philadelphia to Seattle is threatening the weakened industry.

Harvey Weinstein has tested negative for Covid-19 but his representatives say he’s in “critical” condition.

By now you may have heard that President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning Americans from investing in a select number of Chinese firms that have ties to China’s military.

As expected, the medical news continues to get worse. New infections hit all-time highs last week as the third wave of the pandemic has accelerated around the country. Case growth in many states remains at levels that threaten health care systems.

GSAM believes the future of investing aligns with the next wave of innovation. Technological innovation continues to disrupt traditional industries and create new structural growth opportunities. The degree to which companies and investors embrace the next wave of innovation will be critical to their longevity and success. We believe the Goldman Sachs Innovate ETF may allow investors exposure to these opportunities of technological innovation, regardless of sector, geography, or market capitalization.

Learning Objectives:

• How innovation is shaping investing today
• Deep dive into the innovations and themes driving global structural change and growth
• Discover how GSAM captures innovation in portfolio construction

I updated Bill Bengen’s groundbreaking analysis to examine the impact of investment expenses on historical retirement outcomes.

U.S. new home construction rose in October by more than forecast to the fastest pace since February, highlighting a robust residential real estate market that’s helping spur the economy.

Sinology explores how U.S.–China relations can develop under President-elect Biden administration in three key phases.

The latest index came in at 11, down 2 from last month's 13, which indicates expansion in November. The future outlook remained at 21 this month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Elon Musk is just a Tesla Inc. rally away from unseating fellow mega-billionaire -- and occasional verbal sparring partner -- Bill Gates as the second-richest person on the planet.

American workers and businesses face a months-long survival test until Covid-19 vaccines become widely available as spending plunges with record daily cases prompting a sudden return to lockdowns.

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for October was up 0.7% from the September final figure of 107.5. Investing.com predicted a 0.7% increase.

With yields near zero, many investors may question the value of fixed income within a portfolio. Western Asset’s Head of Product Management, Doug Hulsey, joins our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, to discuss fixed income investing with an active-management lens. He makes a case for the asset class for investors in light of market uncertainties and outlines where he sees opportunities today.

The Northern Trust Economics team reviews the outlook for developed markets facing COVID-19.

There is new reform legislation making its way through Congress which will significantly affect how many of us save for retirement and specifically how, and how much, we can contribute to our retirement accounts and at what ages. This is the most significant retirement saving reform legislation in years. I’ll break it all down for you below.

The advantages of DAFs are increasingly being put to use by selecting them as IRA beneficiaries.

What if I told you that to become a better financial professional under Reg BI, you should think less like one?

Here are the key characteristics that distinguish highly successful digital-marketing practices.

The US elections have implications for emerging markets in the area of global trade relations in particular, but for investors, it’s important to look at countries and companies individually within the asset class, according to Portfolio Manager Andrew Ness. He joins our Head of Equities Stephen Dover to discuss how emerging markets are navigating today’s challenges—including the COVID-19 pandemic—and note they are home to some of the most innovative and resilient companies in the world.

Despite lingering uncertainty about corporate earnings growth and economies around the world, global stocks have rebounded from the COVID-19-driven downfall in March. But even following that bounce back, international stocks have lagged their US counterpoints for over the last decade. Could they be reaching an important inflection point? If so, how are astute investors casting a broader net to pinpoint the right companies outside the US?

Join us to hear from an interactive panel of investment experts from AllianceBernstein, who will cover:

• Key catalysts that could signal improved performance outside the US
• The benefits of going abroad, including less-crowded trades, lower valuations, and sourcing different alpha
• Why consider a high-conviction approach for international stock selection
• How benchmark-agnostic strategies can help identify forward-looking thematic opportunities