Quarterly Market Commentary
It is said that a rising tide lifts all boats, and that goes for monetary tides as well. Watching the market every day, this is exactly what it has felt like; stocks just want to go up...fundamentals be damned.
Time for Some Hedging?
The economic calendar is extensive with a focus on housing and consumer behavior. Expect market participants to look for any sign that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the COVID-19 surge and the slower pace of reopening.
Earnings Season Begins with Low Expectations; Will it Be a Catalyst?
It is safe to say that expectations are low as the bottom up consensus for the S&P 500 calls for a year over year earnings decline of about 45% in the 2Q. This would be the largest year over year decline since 2008. But that is well understood at this point.
TrackInsight Names Nasdaq as its Exclusive Distributor in North America
In order to accelerate its presence in North America, TrackInsight has joined with Nasdaq to distribute its services to financial institutions and promote the usage of the platform amongst its network of investment professionals.
Empirical Support for Tail Risk Strategies
The conventional wisdom is that put options are too expensive to use as “tail risk” insurance against extreme losses in equities. But reports earlier this year of their spectacular success in a fund advised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb prompted me to evaluate whether investors should use them.
This Is Nuts…Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999
When looking at the acceleration in the price of the Nasdaq, and particularly within the small group of stocks driving that advance, you can begin to fathom our concerns. Furthermore, the divergence between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index is emulating the late 90’s.
Precious Metals Were the Winners in H1 2020… And It Wasn’t Even Close
Precious metals were the big winners for the first six months of 2020. Spot gold took the first place position, rising over 17 percent, followed in second place by silver, up nearly 2 percent. Palladium rounded out the top three, essentially flat at negative 10 basis points.
2020 Mid-Year Outlook: Municipal Bonds
The first half of 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the municipal bond market hard. State and local governments experienced a sharp and sudden drop in revenue, and an increase in expenses, amid stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns.
Back to the Future: Leaning In During Uncertain Times
Against the backdrop of this new reality, and as most people are doing these days, I found myself browsing through Netflix. That’s when I noticed that the classic Robert Zemeckis movie, Back to the Future, was one of the trending titles. This made me think: what if we could travel back in time, not even as far back as 1955, but rather to January 1 of this year?
The Latest Look at the Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,442 for an annualized real return of 8.72%.