As of July 30, the 10-year note was 72 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
As of August 2, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and three cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.37 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.77. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.26, down 0.9% from last week and up 50% from the beginning of the year.
You may not be familiar with the term metaverse, but if you’ve been a consumer of popular books, movies and video games over the past 30 years or so, you probably are aware of the concept.
I am worried the Fed will either let inflation become psychologically entrenched, or wait too long to stop it and spark crisis with a too-hasty response, but there are other possibilities. None are especially good.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.
What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
he current inflationary surge is temporary. When flexible prices, especially some of those mentioned, normalize, inflation is likely to follow suit.
The great philosopher, John Locke, brilliantly captured the way the world works.
Hang on to your hat.
Tweedy Browne is one of the most respected value managers in the world, with a legacy that includes having Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as clients. In this interview, members of its investment committee explain why value investing is on the cusp of a resurgence.
Recent protests offer hope that change may be right around the corner. But for now, gold and Bitcoin have helped fill the gap created by disastrously mismanaged currencies.
Frontier markets are popular to investors that seek higher returns, and Central Asia’s Kazakhstan is regarded with particular interest.
The latest clean energy ETFs to hit the market are looking to promote companies doing the most to avoid carbon emissions.
Long-term Treasury rates tumbled to the lowest levels in months on Monday as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant called into question optimistic assumptions about economic recovery, also touching off a global stock market slump.
The title of this comment may seem odd, given that – as I write this on July 14, 2021 – the S&P 500 is at a record high.
During the second quarter, global equity markets extended their strong performance.
The only feasible explanation for the 10x run-up in Tesla’s stock price was a spreading narrative that it is more than a car company.
Month-over-month nominal sales in June was up 0.55% and up 18%% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.35% and was up 12% YoY.
New research shows that a company’s history of bad ESG events foretells poor stock performance. That contrasts with other research showing that ESG ratings lack such predictive power.
Commodities rallied 21% in the first half of 2021, making them the top performing asset group ahead of U.S., European, emerging market and non-Japan Asian stocks. The broad-based index of energy, agriculture, industrial metals and precious metals rose the same amount as high-flying Bitcoin, which pulled back after hitting its all-time high of more than $63,000 on April 13.
Have energy stocks run out of gas?
The global economy is in a mid-cycle expansion, following peaks in policy support and growth, and what is likely a transitory spike in inflation. We expect global growth to moderate to a still above-trend pace in 2022.
Global issuance of bonds for environmental, social and governance goals look set to hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. That’s more than double what was sold in all of 2020 as more borrowers are pushed to sell ethical debt by investors.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 5.49%, up from 4.99% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 4.47%, up from 3.80% the previous month and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
New research has uncovered a paradox. Energy firms have been, by far, the most prolific producers of “green” innovations and patents. But those are the stocks that are routinely shunned by ESG investors. Are ESG investors’ goals aligned with their dollars?
Correction fears are overdone – amidst all the chatter about stocks being expensive and due for a correction, Brent’s team dissected price data going back to 1950 and found that corrections and bear markets are rarer than commonly perceived.
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February. The highly transmissible Delta variant was also ruled the most dominant strain of coronavirus in the U.S., threatening economic growth and raising uncertainty about the next interest rate hike.
Investors are backtracking on reflation bets, with the bond rally extending as central banks signal continued support and stocks falling as Covid-19 variants threatened reopening prospects.
A bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending would likely be followed by a separate partisan deal funded by tax increases.
With so much focus being placed on the inflation versus deflation debate of late and many financial pundits declaring a new inflation paradigm is upon us, what better a time to argue the case for deflation.
For international investors, we believe the United Kingdom is home to many companies that offer an especially attractive combination of growth, value and quality.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the June 30 close.
Rising inequality is but one symptom that the U.S. has swung to a society that is characterized by a disproportionate focus on individuals over the collective good. A national priority, similar to the Apollo moon project of the 1960s, is needed to reverse that trend, and there is an obvious candidate.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 2, 2021, at 1.44%, the 2-year note ended at 0.24%, and the 30-year at 2.05%.
There may be many reasons why people spread misinformation about Bitcoin. Much of the misinformation may originate from Ripple, which is currently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fintech firm is believed to employ a great number of bots on Twitter and other social media platforms with the intent of tearing Bitcoin down in favor of its own XRP coin.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. June's 850K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 15K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 700K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%.
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
Hedge fund launches this year are on pace to match last year’s numbers, even as returns have been more subdued than 2020’s big gains.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says controlling inflation expectations is key to achieving the central bank’s twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
Constructing sustainable and risk-adjusted portfolios in a global context
Wall Street is once again in the midst of a “money heist” from naive investors.
After many false starts, Europe is finally emerging from an incredibly difficult 18 months of battling Covid-19.
We buy stocks with a mind toward dividend sustainability and a history of payment hikes. This contrasts with normal bias toward dividend shopping, where one would simply buy the highest-yielding companies as though nothing else mattered.
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility.
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains this week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
Don’t ask for my advice on which number to put your chips on when you play roulette in Vegas; cryptocurrencies fall into the same category.
This Fund has a focus on China’s small companies—could you explain the investment idea behind this? Why China? Why small cap?
Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani unveiled an ambitious push into clean energy involving 750 billion rupees ($10.1 billion) of investment over three years, marking a new pivot for one of the world’s biggest fossil-fuel billionaires.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Through the first half of 2021, fixed-income investors have been faced with their greatest fear: inflation.
The inflation scare that’s become a major theme in markets is getting fresh momentum from the climate-change battle and the huge economic transformation underway.
Domestic business travel is well on its way to recovery. Forty percent of poll respondents said that business travel within the country where their firm is based has already resumed, while a third said that their company has either decided on a start date or is working toward a date.
As the economic recovery continues to broaden out, how do you see the emerging markets?
“We are a long way from 1970s-style inflation,” Scott Minerd said. The data does not support the view that inflation is non-transitory, he said, despite what some people, including hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, are claiming.
Emerging market (EM) economies are not what they used to be.
The global energy landscape has changed dramatically over the last decade, primarily as a result of the significant growth in production and exports of oil and natural gas from the United States. Energy infrastructure companies have played a significant role in facilitating the growth of US energy production and moving the US towards energy independence all while generating fees that support generous dividends. Here to discuss the income opportunity and current tailwinds for the energy infrastructure and MLP space is Stacey Morris.
Commodities prices have been moving higher this spring amid rising demand and rising inflation expectations globally as economies emerge from the pandemic.
I’ve been writing about the possibility of higher inflation for months, and now it looks to have finally made landfall. The headline consumer price index (CPI) came in at 5% year-over-year, the highest in over a decade.
The interplay between governments and businesses impacts your investments. So does the interplay of governments with other governments. Thus the drive to create an international corporate tax. So you can’t escape politics… but you can try to analyze it calmly, without partisan histrionics.
In the long term a true inflationary risk comes from growing government borrowing and budget deficits, which will bring higher interest rates and a weaker dollar with them, which will only make inflation worse and will deflate away assets.
With only a few brief downturns in an otherwise upward trend in the U.S. equity market since the Global Financial Crisis, declining interest rates have pulled forward the net present value of distant earnings and propelled growth stocks (and the market as a whole) higher.
It’s kind of weird to say this, but after more than a decade of Bitcoin’s existence, there’s finally some consensus about what it is.
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
According to data provided by The Block, mining revenue on the Ethereum blockchain topped $2.35 billion in May—a new all-time high—compared to $1.45 billion for Bitcoin. Transaction fees alone contributed over $1 billion.
Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent
Whether simple or sophisticated, common measures all look at risk through the rearview mirror. That might be adequate for the humdrum, typical day-to-day price movements, but it’s not satisfactory when risk matters.
Why commodity markets have done so exceptionally well
The International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded in 1974 in response to oil embargos the previous year that caused the global price of oil to surge 300% from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel. From the start, the IEA’s mission has been to help member nations deal with major oil supply disruptions.
As the US recovery gains momentum, Franklin Equity Group’s Grant Bowers explains why pent-up consumer demand should present a fertile environment for stocks and highlights some opportunities he sees in the US equity market.
We look at specific equity industries commonly available in ETFs as an alternative to commodities as a hedge against inflation.
China was the first nation to enter recovery, and high U.S. import demand has helped it.
While some major economies are recovering fast from the pandemic-induced recession, others are languishing, and still others remain in a state of acute crisis.
Today we’ll consider the arguments for higher inflation in the near future. As you will see, they are serious and convincing. But there are equally serious and convincing points on the deflationary side as well. We’ll get to those next week.
The week’s selloff was dramatic. By Wednesday, Bitcoin was down more than 40% from its all-time high of $64,000, set in mid-April. The token’s market dominance fell to a three-year low of 40%.
How can financial advisors best help their clients navigate the ESG municipal bond world? The number one thing to do is to carefully LISTEN to their clients.
Here are five things Hollywood knows about blockbuster webinars that advisors don’t.
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
The US inflation rate soared above all pre-report estimates in April, the Labor Department reported last Wednesday, to its highest level in 12 years.
A year ago, as the pandemic ravaged country after country and economies shuddered, consumers were the ones panic-buying. Today, on the rebound, it’s companies furiously trying to stock up.
Biden pushes more spending just as the U.S. debt ceiling returns from hiatus, while Scotland's standing in the U.K. is uncertain.
Unless an investor has compelling reasons to maintain their concentrated position, they should liquidate that position and reinvest in a broadly diversified portfolio.
New research shows that the professionals who run, manage, and recommend strategies for pension funds and university endowment funds do worse than a passively managed index fund.
I don’t question Elon Musk’s good intentions, but I respectfully disagree with the underlying insinuation that crypto miners in particular are a threat to the climate. It’s just not true, for reasons I explain below.
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation.
Midstream energy infrastructure offers income potential complemented by macro and company-level tailwinds. In this webinar, we will discuss how the improving energy landscape benefits midstream, what the Biden Administration’s policies mean for the space, and why increasing free cash flow generation represents a key positive development. Our presenters will review the timely trends across the sector and how an allocation to midstream could enhance overall portfolio income and performance.
Andrew Milliner, Global Bonds Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors, has put together the below comments in reaction to current U.S. inflation figures and what it means for the economy and markets moving forward. Please let me know if you have any questions or wish to further discuss with Andrew.
And just like that, Elon Musk has turned on Bitcoin.
Energy
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of July 30, the 10-year note was 72 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Up 50% Since Early Jan
As of August 2, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and three cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.37 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.77. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.26, down 0.9% from last week and up 50% from the beginning of the year.
The Metaverse: What Every Early-Stage Investor Needs to Know
You may not be familiar with the term metaverse, but if you’ve been a consumer of popular books, movies and video games over the past 30 years or so, you probably are aware of the concept.
Policy Errors Have Consequences
I am worried the Fed will either let inflation become psychologically entrenched, or wait too long to stop it and spark crisis with a too-hasty response, but there are other possibilities. None are especially good.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in June
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.
Measuring EM Stocks’ Undervaluation
What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?
Transitory, or Not Transitory? That is the Question. Total Return Outlook Third Quarter
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
Just How Transitory Is Inflation?
he current inflationary surge is temporary. When flexible prices, especially some of those mentioned, normalize, inflation is likely to follow suit.
The Law of Fashion
The great philosopher, John Locke, brilliantly captured the way the world works.
Brace (But Not Too Much) for the CPI Roller-Coaster
Hang on to your hat.
Tweedy Browne: We Are in the Early Stage of Value’s Resurgence
Tweedy Browne is one of the most respected value managers in the world, with a legacy that includes having Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as clients. In this interview, members of its investment committee explain why value investing is on the cusp of a resurgence.
Cuba and Venezuela Offer Cautionary Tales of Socialism
Recent protests offer hope that change may be right around the corner. But for now, gold and Bitcoin have helped fill the gap created by disastrously mismanaged currencies.
Kazakhstan: A Developing Frontier Market with a Western-friendly Attitude
Frontier markets are popular to investors that seek higher returns, and Central Asia’s Kazakhstan is regarded with particular interest.
New Female-Led ETFs Are Bringing ‘Do More Good’ Mantra to U.S.
The latest clean energy ETFs to hit the market are looking to promote companies doing the most to avoid carbon emissions.
Yield Plunge Stirs Thoughts of 1% Treasuries on Delta Variant
Long-term Treasury rates tumbled to the lowest levels in months on Monday as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant called into question optimistic assumptions about economic recovery, also touching off a global stock market slump.
What Triggered the Crash?
The title of this comment may seem odd, given that – as I write this on July 14, 2021 – the S&P 500 is at a record high.
3Q 2021 OUTLOOK
During the second quarter, global equity markets extended their strong performance.
Making Sense of Tesla’s Run-up
The only feasible explanation for the 10x run-up in Tesla’s stock price was a spreading narrative that it is more than a car company.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Up 0.6%
Month-over-month nominal sales in June was up 0.55% and up 18%% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.35% and was up 12% YoY.
Bad ESG News Predicts Poor Stock Performance
New research shows that a company’s history of bad ESG events foretells poor stock performance. That contrasts with other research showing that ESG ratings lack such predictive power.
Commodities Were the Top Performers in 1H 2021: Halftime Report
Commodities rallied 21% in the first half of 2021, making them the top performing asset group ahead of U.S., European, emerging market and non-Japan Asian stocks. The broad-based index of energy, agriculture, industrial metals and precious metals rose the same amount as high-flying Bitcoin, which pulled back after hitting its all-time high of more than $63,000 on April 13.
Energy Stocks Have Run Out Of Gas
Have energy stocks run out of gas?
Mid‑Cycle Investing: Time to Get Selective
The global economy is in a mid-cycle expansion, following peaks in policy support and growth, and what is likely a transitory spike in inflation. We expect global growth to moderate to a still above-trend pace in 2022.
ESG Bond Sales Sprint to $1 Trillion as Investors Force Change
Global issuance of bonds for environmental, social and governance goals look set to hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. That’s more than double what was sold in all of 2020 as more borrowers are pushed to sell ethical debt by investors.
Components of the CPI: June 2021
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: June Headline at 5.4%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 5.49%, up from 4.99% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 4.47%, up from 3.80% the previous month and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
The Great ESG Paradox
New research has uncovered a paradox. Energy firms have been, by far, the most prolific producers of “green” innovations and patents. But those are the stocks that are routinely shunned by ESG investors. Are ESG investors’ goals aligned with their dollars?
Labor Market, Productivity Gains Can Fuel Expansion for Some Time
Correction fears are overdone – amidst all the chatter about stocks being expensive and due for a correction, Brent’s team dissected price data going back to 1950 and found that corrections and bear markets are rarer than commonly perceived.
Gold Is Catching a Bid on Pandemic and Inflation Fears. Are You Participating?
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February. The highly transmissible Delta variant was also ruled the most dominant strain of coronavirus in the U.S., threatening economic growth and raising uncertainty about the next interest rate hike.
Bonds Lead Rethink on Reflation as Central Banks Signal Support
Investors are backtracking on reflation bets, with the bond rally extending as central banks signal continued support and stocks falling as Covid-19 variants threatened reopening prospects.
We Have a Deal: U.S. Infrastructure Spending Soon, Tax Increases Likely Later
A bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending would likely be followed by a separate partisan deal funded by tax increases.
The Case For Deflation
With so much focus being placed on the inflation versus deflation debate of late and many financial pundits declaring a new inflation paradigm is upon us, what better a time to argue the case for deflation.
Markets Generally Favored the Wasatch Approach During the Second Quarter
For international investors, we believe the United Kingdom is home to many companies that offer an especially attractive combination of growth, value and quality.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the June 30 close.
What Will Reverse the Dangerous Trends in U.S. Society?
Rising inequality is but one symptom that the U.S. has swung to a society that is characterized by a disproportionate focus on individuals over the collective good. A national priority, similar to the Apollo moon project of the 1960s, is needed to reverse that trend, and there is an obvious candidate.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.44%
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 2, 2021, at 1.44%, the 2-year note ended at 0.24%, and the 30-year at 2.05%.
Bitcoin Mining Uses a Higher Mix of Sustainable Energy Than Any Major Country or Industry
There may be many reasons why people spread misinformation about Bitcoin. Much of the misinformation may originate from Ripple, which is currently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fintech firm is believed to employ a great number of bots on Twitter and other social media platforms with the intent of tearing Bitcoin down in favor of its own XRP coin.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. June's 850K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 15K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 700K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%.
Investing Is Not a Trivial Pursuit
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
Billion-Dollar Startups Show New Hedge Funds Are Thriving
Hedge fund launches this year are on pace to match last year’s numbers, even as returns have been more subdued than 2020’s big gains.
Averting Inflation Crisis Turns on Something Fed Doesn’t Control
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says controlling inflation expectations is key to achieving the central bank’s twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
The Case for Global Bonds
Constructing sustainable and risk-adjusted portfolios in a global context
ESG Investing – The Great Wall Street Money Heist
Wall Street is once again in the midst of a “money heist” from naive investors.
Post-pandemic Investment Opportunities In Europe
After many false starts, Europe is finally emerging from an incredibly difficult 18 months of battling Covid-19.
Don’t Overvalue Dividends
We buy stocks with a mind toward dividend sustainability and a history of payment hikes. This contrasts with normal bias toward dividend shopping, where one would simply buy the highest-yielding companies as though nothing else mattered.
Technically Speaking: COT Report Shows Stage Set For Volatility
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility.
China's Crackdown on Bitcoin Mining Is Good News for North American Crypto Miners
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains this week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
A Curmudgeon on Cryptocurrency
Don’t ask for my advice on which number to put your chips on when you play roulette in Vegas; cryptocurrencies fall into the same category.
Market Insights from Portfolio Manager Winnie Chwang
This Fund has a focus on China’s small companies—could you explain the investment idea behind this? Why China? Why small cap?
Asia’s Richest Man Plans $10 Billion Push Into Green Energy
Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani unveiled an ambitious push into clean energy involving 750 billion rupees ($10.1 billion) of investment over three years, marking a new pivot for one of the world’s biggest fossil-fuel billionaires.
Weekly Economic Commentary
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
The Great Transitory Debate. Breaking Down The Latest Inflation Numbers.
Through the first half of 2021, fixed-income investors have been faced with their greatest fear: inflation.
The Climate-Change Fight Is Adding to the Global Inflation Scare
The inflation scare that’s become a major theme in markets is getting fresh momentum from the climate-change battle and the huge economic transformation underway.
When Will Business Travel Recover? Sooner Than You Might Think
Domestic business travel is well on its way to recovery. Forty percent of poll respondents said that business travel within the country where their firm is based has already resumed, while a third said that their company has either decided on a start date or is working toward a date.
Emerging Markets Equities Poised for Strong Earnings Rebound
As the economic recovery continues to broaden out, how do you see the emerging markets?
Scott Minerd: “We are a long way from 1970s-style inflation”
“We are a long way from 1970s-style inflation,” Scott Minerd said. The data does not support the view that inflation is non-transitory, he said, despite what some people, including hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, are claiming.
Quick Thoughts: New Realities in Emerging Markets
Emerging market (EM) economies are not what they used to be.
Minisode - The Relevancy of Midstream Energy Today: Income and Total-Return Potential
The global energy landscape has changed dramatically over the last decade, primarily as a result of the significant growth in production and exports of oil and natural gas from the United States. Energy infrastructure companies have played a significant role in facilitating the growth of US energy production and moving the US towards energy independence all while generating fees that support generous dividends. Here to discuss the income opportunity and current tailwinds for the energy infrastructure and MLP space is Stacey Morris.
Shortages, Resurgent Demand and Rising Inflation Expectations Lift Commodities
Commodities prices have been moving higher this spring amid rising demand and rising inflation expectations globally as economies emerge from the pandemic.
Transitory or Not, Inflation Is Here. It Could Be Much Higher Than You Realize
I’ve been writing about the possibility of higher inflation for months, and now it looks to have finally made landfall. The headline consumer price index (CPI) came in at 5% year-over-year, the highest in over a decade.
Politics with No Labels
The interplay between governments and businesses impacts your investments. So does the interplay of governments with other governments. Thus the drive to create an international corporate tax. So you can’t escape politics… but you can try to analyze it calmly, without partisan histrionics.
Inflation is Here, But for How Long?
In the long term a true inflationary risk comes from growing government borrowing and budget deficits, which will bring higher interest rates and a weaker dollar with them, which will only make inflation worse and will deflate away assets.
Real World Overlay Solutions in Challenging Times
With only a few brief downturns in an otherwise upward trend in the U.S. equity market since the Global Financial Crisis, declining interest rates have pulled forward the net present value of distant earnings and propelled growth stocks (and the market as a whole) higher.
There’s a New Vision for Crypto, and It’s Wildly Different From Bitcoin
It’s kind of weird to say this, but after more than a decade of Bitcoin’s existence, there’s finally some consensus about what it is.
In Unprecedented Times, Don’t Rely on (Obvious) Precedent
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
Ethereum Miners Saw Record Revenues in May
According to data provided by The Block, mining revenue on the Ethereum blockchain topped $2.35 billion in May—a new all-time high—compared to $1.45 billion for Bitcoin. Transaction fees alone contributed over $1 billion.
Transitory Inflation? Not so Quick
Transitory is defined as being of brief duration, tending to pass away and not persistent
The Fundamental Misunderstanding of Risk
Whether simple or sophisticated, common measures all look at risk through the rearview mirror. That might be adequate for the humdrum, typical day-to-day price movements, but it’s not satisfactory when risk matters.
Supercycle or not?
Why commodity markets have done so exceptionally well
The Race for Copper, the Metal of the Future
The International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded in 1974 in response to oil embargos the previous year that caused the global price of oil to surge 300% from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel. From the start, the IEA’s mission has been to help member nations deal with major oil supply disruptions.
Pent-Up Consumer Demand Fuels US Recovery
As the US recovery gains momentum, Franklin Equity Group’s Grant Bowers explains why pent-up consumer demand should present a fertile environment for stocks and highlights some opportunities he sees in the US equity market.
Inflation Hedging Without Commodities
We look at specific equity industries commonly available in ETFs as an alternative to commodities as a hedge against inflation.
Economic Commentary: China's Recovery, U.S. Trade Deficit, Household Well-Being
China was the first nation to enter recovery, and high U.S. import demand has helped it.
Leaders and Laggards in the Post-Pandemic Recovery
While some major economies are recovering fast from the pandemic-induced recession, others are languishing, and still others remain in a state of acute crisis.
Expecting Inflation
Today we’ll consider the arguments for higher inflation in the near future. As you will see, they are serious and convincing. But there are equally serious and convincing points on the deflationary side as well. We’ll get to those next week.
Big Investors Dump Bitcoin for Gold as Inflation Heats Up
The week’s selloff was dramatic. By Wednesday, Bitcoin was down more than 40% from its all-time high of $64,000, set in mid-April. The token’s market dominance fell to a three-year low of 40%.
Navigating the Growing ESG Muni Bond Market
How can financial advisors best help their clients navigate the ESG municipal bond world? The number one thing to do is to carefully LISTEN to their clients.
Five Things Hollywood Knows About Blockbuster Webinars
Here are five things Hollywood knows about blockbuster webinars that advisors don’t.
Archegos Blowup Signals Bank Complacency, Top Regulator Says
Archegos Capital Management’s implosion signals Wall Street has grown too complacent about potential threats building up in the economy, said Michael Hsu, the new acting chief of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
US Inflation Blows Past Expectations In April
The US inflation rate soared above all pre-report estimates in April, the Labor Department reported last Wednesday, to its highest level in 12 years.
The World Economy Is Suddenly Running Low on Everything
A year ago, as the pandemic ravaged country after country and economies shuddered, consumers were the ones panic-buying. Today, on the rebound, it’s companies furiously trying to stock up.
Economic Commentary: Biden Goes Big, U.S. Debt Ceiling, Scotland Elections
Biden pushes more spending just as the U.S. debt ceiling returns from hiatus, while Scotland's standing in the U.K. is uncertain.
How to Eliminate the Dangers of Concentrated Stock Positions
Unless an investor has compelling reasons to maintain their concentrated position, they should liquidate that position and reinvest in a broadly diversified portfolio.
The Spectacular Failure of the Endowment Model
New research shows that the professionals who run, manage, and recommend strategies for pension funds and university endowment funds do worse than a passively managed index fund.
Elon Is Wrong About Bitcoin. Crypto Miners Are Key to Renewables' Success
I don’t question Elon Musk’s good intentions, but I respectfully disagree with the underlying insinuation that crypto miners in particular are a threat to the climate. It’s just not true, for reasons I explain below.
A Giant Consumptive Force
Last week I teased you about the China panel, so that seems like a good place to start. We’ll review that conversation and then bring in some China comments from later sessions.
Is 1970s-Style Inflation Coming Back?
With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation.
Income, Energy Infrastructure and MLPs: Post Earnings Season Updates
Midstream energy infrastructure offers income potential complemented by macro and company-level tailwinds. In this webinar, we will discuss how the improving energy landscape benefits midstream, what the Biden Administration’s policies mean for the space, and why increasing free cash flow generation represents a key positive development. Our presenters will review the timely trends across the sector and how an allocation to midstream could enhance overall portfolio income and performance.
US Inflation Figures
Andrew Milliner, Global Bonds Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors, has put together the below comments in reaction to current U.S. inflation figures and what it means for the economy and markets moving forward. Please let me know if you have any questions or wish to further discuss with Andrew.
Note to Elon: Crypto Miners Are Part of the Solution to Curbing Greenhouse Gas Emissions
And just like that, Elon Musk has turned on Bitcoin.