Energy

Today's supply and inflation challenges stem from Brexit.

Looking ahead, new sources of inflation may continue to arise. Unless the mounting pressures push inflation to significantly higher levels that would provoke central banks into aggressive tightening, the impact on global stock markets may be a positive.

Historical comparisons are always risky. This is particularly so when comparing different eras in vastly different countries like the US and China. Similarities can actually obscure more important differences.

As we sit atop our prosperous peak, admiring the views of the fastest economic growth since 1984, the best start to a bull market and the record-breaking quarter of earnings growth, it’s wise to remember that not too long ago we began our uphill journey from the depths of the COVID-19 ravine. Often, the best views come after the hardest climbs.

Since the Fed’s September FOMC meeting and official taper announcement, we are witnessing what appears to potentially be a shift back into the reflation trade.

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies Shailesh Kshatriya and Investment Strategy Analyst BeiChen Lin discussed recent political headlines in Washington, D.C., the rise in U.S. government bond yields and the potential outcomes of Germany’s recent elections.

Contrary to popular belief, what’s good for the goose is not always good for the gander.

Shanghai Surprise is a 1986 movie about a con man, a nurse, and a coveted supply of opium. Markets got a Shanghai Surprise of their own in the third quarter, as China’s “common prosperity” movement led to crackdowns on myriad industries.

Gold’s average daily trading volume for the one-year period was $183 billion, compared to the S&P 500 with nearly $235 billion. That dollar amount is enough to beat currency swaps as well as all government and corporate debt.

The country’s leadership has designed a new development model, based on a ‘common prosperity’ philosophy, aimed at modernising the economy by improving the country’s future demographic profile via lowering inequality and promoting sustainable, even if slower, GDP growth which is both less dependent on financial leverage and in harmony with nature.

The Berlin Wall came down 32 years ago this November, ushering in a new era of freedom and opportunity. But judging from the results of a recent local election, it looks as if socialism is trying to stage something of a comeback in Germany’s capital city.

A three-party coalition could soon govern Germany for the first time in the country’s history following recent elections. Matthias Hoppe, senior vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, believes uncertainty caused by coalition talks is likely to increase volatility in Europe’s financial markets, but changing a conservative attitude to public spending is the real challenge for a new government as Germany wrestles with the reality of increasing macro-economic imbalances and a stated aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday on persistent concerns over the debt ceiling, along with a continued increase in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 closed down 2%, the Nasdaq fell 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.3%.

Canada's election yielded no changes, leaving housing as the key risk to watch.

Against the backdrop of a potential Evergrande failure, gold and Bitcoin look very attractive as stores of value, and both happen to be on sale right now.

After a challenging 2020 due to the pandemic, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been flowing into Russia this year for a number of reasons. Among them is it offers positive real rates compared to other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

The value rebound that started in September 2020 gave up nearly half its gains by mid-May 2021 as the recovery faltered with the onslaught of the highly contagious Delta variant. But vaccination has proven highly effective, and as the unvaccinated around the world become vaccinated, the prospect of a reinvigorated economy is good. Is now a second chance to rebalance into value stocks?

We have a relatively sanguine view on the likelihood of inflation becoming ingrained in the system (much as it pains us to agree with the Fed). However, the dark arts of macroeconomics are notoriously tricky, and we have often talked of the need to build robust (as opposed to optimal) portfolios – effectively, portfolios that can withstand multiple outcomes.

Let us share some of the “bizarre red-blue lights flashing” in the S&P 500 Index.

It’s becoming more and more difficult to be in the fossil fuel business. On both sides of the Atlantic, lawmakers and unelected bureaucrats are turning up the heat, so to speak, on companies over the issue of climate change.

It’s becoming more and more difficult to be in the fossil fuel business. On both sides of the Atlantic, lawmakers and unelected bureaucrats are turning up the heat, so to speak, on companies over the issue of climate change.

Today we’ll take another walk through the inflation debate. Is it still transitory or should we expect a light-1970s inflation going forward? The answer is critically important.

In a win (but not a complete victory) for “team transitory,” the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in August (+0.3%, up just 0.1% excluding food and energy). Areas that were running hot a few months ago (used cars, vehicle rentals, car insurance, airfares) retreated.

We’ve all experienced shortages of various goods and/or services in the last year or so of the coronavirus pandemic. In recent decades, American manufacturers have increasingly outsourced the production of goods we consume to foreign countries where they can often be produced cheaper.

Value has its day in the sun. But are investors learning the right lessons from it?

So much of life is managing risk. That’s true on a micro, personal-level scale as well as a macro, country-level scale. Crises often can’t be prevented. It’s how you deal with them that makes all the difference.

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

Social Security is in worse shape than we thought. The program’s trust fund is now expected to be insolvent by 2033, a year earlier than anticipated. According to the annual report, its finances have been “significantly affected” by the pandemic and 2020 recession, not to mention “rapid population aging.”

In the 50 years since Richard Nixon officially severed the dollar’s link to gold, many have claimed that the greenback’s strength rests primarily on America’s unchallenged power and prestige around the world.

Based in Brussels, Belgium, with offices in Luxembourg and Singapore, Sofina is a family-run investment company with equity holdings in Europe, the U.S. and Asia.

Inflation remained in check following the global financial crisis for over a decade despite a massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.

Defensive stocks are often misunderstood. In recent years, even when they have delivered strong and steady earnings, returns have disappointed.

Many economists seem to view inflation as a purely technocratic problem, and most central bankers would like to believe that.

The country sits atop what could be one of the world’s largest reserves of various metals and minerals, including not just gold but also platinum, silver, copper, iron, aluminum and uranium. It’s believed to have so much lithium, an increasingly important metal that’s widely used in battery technology, that Afghanistan could one day be known as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” according to a 2010 memo by the U.S. Department of Defense.

It’s no secret. The highly transmissible delta variant of Covid-19 has stalled the recovery of commercial air travel and weakened bookings in July and August, which have traditionally been among airlines’ busiest months of the year.

In the summer of 2020, we didn’t know quite a few things about how Americans would react when they got their social and entertainment choices back.

Narratives get more energy these days because of social media and cable TV, but they've always existed.

So many headlines right now are instilling FUD in investors’ minds, which stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt—from the Afghanistan news to fears on cryptocurrency and the delta variant disrupting travel plans. But don’t fall for it.

Many of you tuned in this week to watch the conversation between me and Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of business intelligence company MicroStrategy.

The question I get most often is “when is the next bear market?” There are three specific items that tend to predict bear markets and recessions with some accuracy.

On the insistence from a friend and a colleague, I watched the movie There Will Be Blood over the weekend.

As equity style winds shift, investors are still debating the merits of growth versus value stocks.

As I discussed in a Frank Talk this week, the Senate just approved a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that’s now the business of the House.

It may be time for investors to take a serious look at commodities and raw materials.

Investing with the intent to do well while doing good is gaining traction.