Energy

Elon Musk is just a Tesla Inc. rally away from unseating fellow mega-billionaire -- and occasional verbal sparring partner -- Bill Gates as the second-richest person on the planet.

With yields near zero, many investors may question the value of fixed income within a portfolio. Western Asset’s Head of Product Management, Doug Hulsey, joins our Head of Equities, Stephen Dover, to discuss fixed income investing with an active-management lens. He makes a case for the asset class for investors in light of market uncertainties and outlines where he sees opportunities today.

The yield on the 10-year note ended November 18, 2020, at 0.88%, the 2-year note ended at 0.16%, and the 30-year at 1.62%.

The US elections have implications for emerging markets in the area of global trade relations in particular, but for investors, it’s important to look at countries and companies individually within the asset class, according to Portfolio Manager Andrew Ness. He joins our Head of Equities Stephen Dover to discuss how emerging markets are navigating today’s challenges—including the COVID-19 pandemic—and note they are home to some of the most innovative and resilient companies in the world.

Month-over-month nominal sales in October increased by 0.37%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.23%.

The blue shift in the White House may signal added trouble for Big Tech companies.

A multilateral framework is needed to reverse the effects of secular stagnation and should be the primary focus of President-elect Biden’s administration, according to Larry Summers.

Banks have begun to voluntarily disclose their exposure to climate change risks. The information is critical to bank management teams and investors, both of whom need to understand the challenges ahead.

America, and the world, received a huge shot of hope this week. The $210 billion drugmaker Pfizer announced on Monday that its coronavirus vaccine is 90% effective at preventing COVID-19.

Today we’ll talk about the political changes, what they mean for the economy, and then how the latest vaccine news may affect the outlook.

Election results (a divided Washington) and good news on a potential vaccine boosted share prices, although there were some concerns about surging COVID-19 cases (163,402 reported on November 12) and possible difficulties in distributing the vaccine.

As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.18%, down from 1.37% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.61%, down from 1.71% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging markets have shown a continued appetite for structural reforms that could lay the foundation for lasting economic recoveries, according to our Emerging Markets Equity team.

We came up with a theory many years ago to address how important psychology is to owning common stocks. We found that the risks go up in a stock market, or in an individual stock, when a “well-known fact” (WKF) was acted on in the extreme.

The United States faces a $3.1 trillion annual deficit supported with interest rates at or near zero. The Fed and government are rapidly exhausting their arsenal to fight current and future recessions. Equally troubling, almost all of their actions offer little or no future benefit, but the costs stay with us.

Defensive equities are usually found in sectors that have withstood market shocks, such as utilities and real estate. But as COVID-19 shakes up investment conventions, companies with intangible assets are being more appreciated for their volatility cushion.

Businesses love Congressional gridlock. Tech stocks had been trending down for days before the election as they faced antitrust scrutiny, but now that it appears certain Congress will remain divided, they’ve recovered most of their losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped close to 10% for the week.

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. October's 638K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 15K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 8600K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.7%.

Just hours before the U.S. election got underway, investors pulled the most cash ever from the world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking corporate bonds.

When you run an equity portfolio which is concentrated in 25-30 common stock selections, there are usually three stocks which stick out as particularly attractive at any given time.

In a new piece – “Covid-19, Climate Change, And The Need For A New Marshall Plan” – GMO’s Jeremy Grantham discusses the impact of Covid-19 on the economy of the developed world, arguing great strides are necessary in order for the U.S. and the world to accelerate growth.

One of the most recent mantras in the financial media is that housing prices rise because there is an inventory shortage. While it is an excellent headline for “getting clicks,” the are 3-reasons why there really is NO housing shortage.

Want to hear something really scary? Inflation, the scourge of the modern economy, may be running much faster than we’re led to believe.

Today I want to look at what will not change. And though I will make a few comments on the election below, I want us to think today about what we can look forward to with an optimistic and realistic vision.

I recently published an article discussing why “recessions” are a good thing by reverting debt buildups excesses during expansions. The argument against debt reversions is always the same in that “debt-to-income” ratios low.

The latest on how equity managers across the globe fared during the third quarter, plus how the upcoming U.S. election is impacting manager viewpoints.

The “end of globalization” is a phrase that has come up a lot lately. Stories written about deglobalization have soared this year with the pandemic.

The tightrope walker has his blindfold off, the wind is blowing, and it’s a long way down. Technically speaking, high-yield bond prices broke downward through a “double bottom,” which could reasonably be taken as an indicator of coming trouble for the stock market as well, given the greater wariness among bond market investors this year.

Here at U.S. Global Investors, we’re very bullish on commodities, particularly industrial and precious metals.

Global Allocation Fund portfolio manager Russ Koesterich discusses the appeal of the middle area when choosing between growth versus value stocks.

In this short Q&A, Teresa Kong, Portfolio Manager, provides her insights on the economic impact of the coronavirus and where she sees risks and opportunities, and why the current prices could represent a once in a decade opportunity to buy Asia high yield.

Loomis Sayles' Senior Credit Research Analyst Ryan McGrail summarizes potential policy proposals under a Biden administration and highlights the states and regions facing the greatest risk of federal regulation.

Jeremy Grantham has made a science of studying asset bubbles, correctly predicting the path of the Japanese, dot-com and housing overvaluations. Today’s bubble in U.S. equities is unlike any other, he says, but it will burst in months, if not weeks.

We could also see a so-called “blue wave,” whereby the Democrats pick up control of not just the White House but also both chambers of Congress.

Despite ongoing weakness in the economy, stocks continued to rally in the third quarter. At first glance it seems perplexing, but a deeper analysis reveals that the market drivers are both rational and sustainable. In our view, the pandemic has created profound shifts in demand that have generated strong tailwinds for a wide range of firms.

What could a Biden victory mean for investors? Read our latest blog post from the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team for their views on some key campaign issues.

• Without statistical support, political party and tax regime changes have not translated to discernable market performance.
• Global fiscal and monetary stimulus during COVID already far surpass what the world saw during and after the Great Recession.
• Equity and credit markets domestically and abroad continued to shrug off headlines, helping recoup some if not all of the losses from earlier this year.
• Anchored short-term interest rates helped investment grade fixed income yet another quarter.

Emerging-market debt has rebounded sharply off March lows, but attractive yields and compelling opportunities persist. We provide a roadmap for what may lie ahead.

Markets continued their recovery during the 3^rd quarter, but the narrative transitioned from concerns about the pandemic to the U.S. election – a trend that we expect to continue in October. The outcome will likely have a material impact on both fiscal stimulus policies and Treasury yields.

David Dreman’s book, Contrarian Investment Strategies, was gospel to investors when it was first published in 1979. Investors had been decimated by markets going nowhere over the prior 10 years. Stock investors were ready for something new. Dreman had produced a lot of success as an investor and wanted to share his gospel of contrarian value investing.

The OPEC+ alliance warned of a “precarious” outlook as a resurgent coronavirus pandemic hurts oil demand, dropping further hints about a potential change of policy next month.

“Resilience” was this week’s theme as better-than-expected market data came to light. Earnings season has begun, and so far reports have proven the doomsayers wrong. Even industries that have been hardest hit by the economic downturn, including air travel, are expressing optimism that we’re at the “end of the beginning” in terms of recovering from the worst health crisis in 100 years.

Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.

We recently read Peter Doran’s book, Breaking Rockefeller, which is a fabulous economic history of the world from 1840-1920 and focuses on how the monopoly created by John D. Rockefeller was broken from 1890-1910. We also watched a documentary called, “The Social Dilemma,” which explains, through the eyes of some of the social media creators, how incredibly damaging the monopolies, created by internet technology, are to society.

Investors should consider many angles when evaluating what active managers can offer through a global crisis and an indefinite period of uncertainty.

The transition toward a more sustainable energy system presents potential opportunities for investors. We explore what those opportunities are, and identify potential watchpoints.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history?

The potential economic and market impacts a “Blue Wave” for the U.S. election could have on five key areas: taxes, labor, the environment, oil and trade.

There’s more consensus than usual over the likely winner of the U.S. presidential election. After that, there’s plenty of disagreement on strategies to wager on an election that’s been flashing warnings of chaos ahead in volatility markets.

Emerging markets have had different approaches to coping with COVID-19 and are at different stages of recovery. Our emerging markets equity team examines trends, news and data shaping emerging markets in the third quarter, and shares its latest outlook.

To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.

The environment is one of many sets of regulations under consideration.

Shares of renewable-energy companies expected to benefit from Biden’s energy policy plans have surged.

There are many benefits of using a rules-based approach using Relative Strength (RS), one of the main cornerstones of our research. Relative Strength, also known as Momentum, is a time-tested investment factor that permeates our work, allowing us to identify where both strength and weakness exists across securities, sectors, and asset classes using just one objective input - price.

In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the September 30 close.

President Trump has declared rare earth metals a national emergency and asks that the U.S develop a “commercially viable” mineral supply chain that does not depend on imports from China or elsewhere.

Given elements of uncertainty tied to COVID-19, geopolitics and policy decisions to come in the United States and across the globe, our K2 Advisors team believes the current environment may favor nimble, shorter-term strategies.

It's the first time the Texas-based giant has been dethroned since it began as Standard Oil more than a century ago.

High-yield bonds can generally offer more income in a very low-interest-rate world. However, if the economic or stock market outlook deteriorates, it could be a bumpy ride.

While the world focuses on COVID-19, there’s another virus that’s getting far less attention – the volatility virus. Investors and traders who embrace and capitalize on volatility (or “vol”) are jumping into indices that track volatility. And 2020 is surely the year to do so.

Ever wonder why Americans enjoy a substantially higher standard of living than any other large country? According to Matt Ridley, it is because the liberal democracy we have nurtured over the last 250 years is the essential catalyst to foster innovation.

Over the past couple of decades, the Federal Reserve has coalesced around an idea about inflation that is little more than theoretical, with no real data to back it up. That "idea" is that 2% inflation is the "correct" amount of inflation.

Given the United States is the world’s largest economy, investors around the globe will be watching the US presidential race—and market implications—with keen interest.

One of the big criticisms of ESG is that the criteria for determining which companies are trying to do the right thing are overly broad and subjective.

Investors should try to avoid getting distracted by the feuding political parties within the U.S. A lot of the infighting is being fueled by outside actors, who thrive on the chaos and the division. Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are delighted that we’re so divided right now.

Investing in businesses that strive for a better climate through decarbonization doesn’t necessarily assume a lower bar for performance. Just the opposite. Besides contributing to a healthier environment, low-carbon equity investing can also offer attractive return potential.

The fastest, most economically destructive recession is now in investors’ rearview mirrors. CIO Larry Adam shares his perspective on the unfolding recovery.

The migration south is similar to one earlier this year, when galleries, auction houses and restaurants set up outposts in the small villages on Long Island’s South Fork after many of the city’s millionaires and billionaires moved there to sit out the pandemic.

Despite a September slump, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ wrapped up the third quarter with gains of 8.47% and 11%, respectively.

We became extremely bearish on energy in 2011. At the time, we saw interest in Seattle for hybrid and electric cars. This convinced us that 10% of the cars on the road nationwide might be hybrid and electric by 2020.

You may have seen headlines questioning whether this is the end of the gold rally. Hardly. Corrections are normal and healthy. During the rally of the 2000s that culminated in gold hitting its previous record high of $1,900, there were several significant pullbacks, some of them exceeding 20 percent.

The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ignited a fight over her replacement. The increased animosity in Washington lowered the odds that lawmakers will reach agreement on a further fiscal support package and dampened investor sentiment.

A vote for stocks. After solid summer gains came September volatility. The question now is what’s priced into markets as investors zero in on COVID-19 developments and the November election.