Bond Investing in the Face of Uncertainty: A Multi-Sector Approach
For investors searching for yield in today’s environment of inflation uncertainty and rising interest-rate risk, a multi-sector, credit-oriented investment approach that actively seeks to take advantage of opportunities across the spectrum of investment sectors may be a potential solution. Join us on October 20th when we delve into the current investment backdrop and reveal how credit sectors have historically performed well when rates are on the rise.
Q3 2021 Market Perspectives: "A Global Shift"
After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors.
Fed To Taper, Inflation Rising, Retail Shortages Coming
We touch on several bases today as we often do. We begin with the Fed which decided to start reducing its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in November. This was not a surprise.
America's Driving Habits as of August 2021
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +8.3% (+21.0 billion vehicle miles) for August 2021 as compared with August 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 273.8 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 4.2% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.64% month-over-month and up 3.7% year-over-year.
Impending Super Cycle Commodity Signal Argues Against Transitory Inflation
We are in uncharted waters on many fronts, so no one can really answer that inflation/deflation question with any degree of certainty. We can however, look to the technical condition of commodity markets for guidance, since they have usually, acted as a barometer for more generalized swings in inflationary and deflationary pressures. Commodity prices look poised to signal a new secular bull market, which would likely broaden out to result in the highest more generalized inflation rates since the 1970’s.
For The First Time Since the 70s, Demographics Support Higher Rates
New projections of the labor force growth rate by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show the US labor force growth accelerating in the 2020s for the first time since the 1970s.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Highest Since 2014
As of October 18, the price of Regular and Premium were up six and five cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.49 and Texas has the cheapest at $2.95. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 81.69, up 1.5% from last week and up 72% from the beginning of the year. Both gas prices and WTIC are at their highest levels since 2014.
The 60/40 Portfolio Isn't Dead, Just More Expensive: Allison Schrager
Volatile, pandemic-riven markets for stocks and bonds has Wall Street ready — again — to declare the traditional 60/40 portfolio split a dead strategy. The prospect of a low-growth, high-inflation economy (stagflation) dims the prospects of both investment categories, and certainly demands a rethink of where to stash your savings.
Fed Policy is Driving Homelessness
In a society with a weak social safety net, homelessness is the inevitable result of exuberant real estate prices. Those living on the street are the indirect victims of loose monetary policy and low interest rates that foster high property and rental prices.