U.S. and China Sign a Deal, Inequality Eludes Measurement, Canada Leads with Fiscal Policy
Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.
Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.
Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.
New Beginnings With the Year of the Rat
Because it’s the first of the 12 zodiacs, the Year of the Rat is seen as a time of beginnings and renewals. That brings us hope, especially paired with the recent positive development in the U.S.-China trade war.
Nose Blind to Inflation
The Federal Reserve doesn’t see the inflation others notice. Their data says inflation isn’t a problem, so they ignore indications otherwise. We see this in their policy decisions. And it’s not just the Fed; other central banks, Wall Street analysts, economists, and politicians have the same affliction.
Interest Rates and Stock Values Truth Be Told
The idea that interest rates directly affect stock prices is a commonly held belief among many investors. There are some that even go as far as to say that the only reason the stock market is up is because interest rates have been artificially kept low by the Fed.
Five Multi-Asset Strategies for 2020’s Challenges
The last decade produced great performance across most asset classes. But in the 2020s, we expect investment market returns will be lower and risk harder to manage. Looking forward, a disciplined multi-asset approach will be especially valuable to identify opportunities and help mitigate setbacks.
Headwinds Are Blowing, But the Ship Sails Onward Total Return Market Outlook
2019 proved to be a very strong year for almost all financial assets, as equities and bonds rallied in tandem. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) was compelled to play defense against a weaker global economy (particularly in Europe) and continued uncertainty related to the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Outlook on Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are expected to grow more and grow faster than developed markets in 2020, and fundamentals appear attractive for both equities and debt. Trade tensions and global growth prospects are, as ever, the issues to watch in the new year.
First Quarter Investment Outlook
2020 is starting off with a strong risk appetite, generally fair-to-rich asset valuations, and accommodative monetary policy from the major central banks. If the current expansion can stay on track, we anticipate another year of positive risk-asset performance.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 150.6, unchanged from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.26%, up from last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 5.19, up from the previous week.