Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
Joel Bruckenstein of T3 and I just released the 2021 T3/Inside Information Advisor Software Survey, which includes user ratings and market share statistics (and year-on-year changes to both) for more than 400 different software products and services in 32 different categories.
For Black Americans, the prospect of student debt forgiveness, currently under consideration by President Joe Biden, would be especially welcome.
Low-income Americans bore the brunt of job losses when the pandemic arrived. Now they’re getting hit hardest by price increases as the economy recovers.
The first quarter looks to be the turning point, both for the pandemic here in the U.S. and for the economic damage it has caused.
President Biden’s massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill is on the tracks, rolling toward what many in Washington believe will be speedy passage in the House and Senate.
Well, let’s just say things are different in 2021.
Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
A fast-growing stock – what clients believe is the next Google – is likely to be a disappointing investment. New research, which validates the theory of behavioral economics, shows that “representativeness” explains why clients overweight stocks with high asset growth.
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
The corporate tax-cut party President Donald Trump kicked off will soon be over if his successor proves able to enact proposals to roll back half of the 2017 domestic income-tax reduction and to radically revamp levies on profits earned abroad.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a leading global luxury brands group.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Standard neoclassical economics is a failure and is driving many of the crises facing our world.
Might the federal government launch a digital or cryptocurrency? Early forecasts say the “fedcoin” has bipartisan support.
Shundrawn Thomas is perhaps the only and certainly one of the few African Americans who leads a global investment firm. He’s been quite outspoken and visible with his views on racism and inequities. Over the last year, he wrote three open letters to civic and business leaders which addressed them in an extremely personal and direct manner. He has also appeared numerous times on television presenting the investment case for gender diversity.
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s.
Data has shown that investment strategies that address ESG issues constitute a third of professionally managed U.S. assets. That has led some to claim that asset prices have been driven up to the point where investors should expect poor performance going forward. That narrative is false.
Pronounced “D-N-A,” this Knowledge Leader was founded in 1999 by three Tokyo entrepreneurs seeking to establish an online auction site.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.43% and is down 1.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.20%. The real number is down 2.5% year-over-year.
The race to the bottom continues as two of the largest ETF issuers are slicing what investors pay in the $6 trillion industry’s battle to manage the most cash.
It is commonly assumed that growth stocks are bigger beneficiaries of falling interest rates than value stocks, an assumption driven by a belief that growth stocks are much longer “duration” than value stocks due to the fact that more value in growth companies comes from relatively more distant cash flows.
Global stocks and bonds are both expensive. U.S. stocks are trading at particularly elevated valuations with the CAPE ratio standing at 35x (vs. a 10-year average of less than 27x) while the Barclays Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index offered a negative real yield at the end of February.
During these challenging times, growing a financial advisory firm is a study in the fundamentals: understanding your clients and building relationships.
President Joe Biden’s economic team at the White House is determined to make good on his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich, emboldened by mounting data showing how well America’s wealthy did financially during the pandemic.
New research shows that hedge funds that proclaim to adhere to socially responsible investment principles fail to follow through on that commitment and they deliver inferior performance results. The same is true of institutional funds, although the evidence is weaker.
As the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, women investors are more concerned about their finances and feel less prepared than they’ve been in years. Nearly three in four women with investable assets of $100,000 or more said the pandemic has negatively impacted their ability to retire. Ann Bair and Lori Hall present the findings from Nationwide’s sixth annual Advisor Authority study, powered by the Nationwide Retirement Institute®, reflecting the responses of more than 2,500 individual investors, advisors and financial professionals.
Wall Street thought 2020 was the Year of the SPAC, or special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Turns out, this title was premature.
Unwritten rules have as much power as written ones. That is true of padding a big lead in baseball and of whether RIAs need to have the CFP designation.
Following its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released a statement and summary of economic projections (SEP).
Entrepreneurial women’s lack of access to venture capital (VC) is one of the oldest stories in the world. How do we change herstory and empower women entrepreneurs and founders?
Last year featured a jaw-dropping list of extremes, from a once-in-a-century pandemic to record-breaking market moves. Howard Marks writes in his latest memo about approaching the investment environment left in 2020’s wake – one generating many questions and no easy answers.
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
Wall Street firms are quietly preparing to resume political giving in the next few months, marking an end to a freeze that many corporations vowed to impose after rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol in January to disrupt congressional certification of Donald Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden.
As the inflation discussion continues to gather momentum, please join guest speakers VanEck Portfolio Managers Shawn Reynolds and Roland Morris, Deputy Portfolio Manager Charles Cameron, and sector specialists Veronica Zhang from VanEck’s natural resource equity and commodity strategies.
It seems like it’s been awhile since there’s been such a strong alignment in commodities and natural resources, from tailwinds associated with the global recovery to strong fundamentals, valuations and growth prospects across industries at a company level. The VanEck team will guide you through an in-depth look at the latest trends, their implications and potential opportunities with an overview on our diverse solutions available to access this space.
Month-over-month nominal sales in February decreased by 3.0%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 3.4%.
President Joe Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 to help pay for the long-term economic program designed as a follow-up to his pandemic-relief bill, according to people familiar with the matter.
When it comes to investments, economic growth, and entrepreneurship, women remain structurally excluded from high-level participation compared to men.
U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.
U.S. colleges saw drops in undergraduate enrollment for this year’s spring semester as the emergence of Covid-19 vaccines failed to bring more students back to campus, deepening the pandemic-related financial strains faced by schools.
Warren Buffett has been a fixture at the top of the world’s wealth rankings for decades, but in recent years he’s slipped down the list as tech fortunes soared and his hot hand cooled. Now, at 90, his net worth has blown past $100 billion.
The region’s health care sector is setting a brisk pace for growth and innovation. Our team discusses the opportunity set.
The Biden administration’s efforts to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, promote racial equity, and address climate change may well continue this momentum, creating powerful incentives for companies to do the right thing by the environment and their stakeholders.
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
It’s pretty tough, one year deep into the global pandemic, to put a sunny face on the future of business travel. But for the people at American Express, the future of corporate travel looks … sort of fun?
As International Women’s Day approaches, three PIMCO executives share their perspectives on diversity in the workplace.
A new exchange-traded fund seeking to ride the companies most loved by investors online has found plenty of its own positive sentiment in its first day of trading.
Casey Harrell, the campaigner whose sustained pressure was instrumental in pushing BlackRock Inc. to act against climate change, approaches his work as if locked in a race against time. That was true even before the 42-year-old environmental activist was diagnosed last year with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.
The recent selloff of US growth market darlings reflects increasing questions about whether their growth potential still justifies exceptionally high valuations. Away from the froth, growth investors can still find solid return potential in quality companies with profitable, sustainable business models.
Senator Elizabeth Warren said IRS funding should be bolstered so the richest Americans get audited about once every three years as part of her proposed 2% annual tax on wealth in excess of $50 million.
There is a recipe for advisory success, but it looks more like one for chili than for a cake. In other words, advising is more cooking than baking.
Yields have jumped so much, in fact, that they’re giving stocks a serious run for their money. The 10-year yield is now higher than the S&P 500 dividend yield, which may have added to the selling pressure that cost stocks close to 2.5% yesterday.
What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.
Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
The Queen’s Gambit miniseries helped propel Netflix to a winning earnings report last quarter, but in fact the chess strategy it is named after has helped propel chess players to winning games for decades.
Opponents of Harvard College’s affirmative action policies asked the Supreme Court to bar colleges from using race as an admissions factor, setting up what could be a defining showdown for higher education and the court’s conservative majority.
Plastic-wrapped foam mattresses, dilapidated plastic shelving units, three-legged Ikea chairs—Jay Reno calls this “end-of-life” furniture. And it’s accumulating by the dumpster-full in landfills.
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
It doesn’t take Black History Month to remind our listeners of the lack of diversity in the advisory profession. Of the countless conferences I’ve attended – when it was possible to attend such conferences – the overwhelming majority of attendees were like me: white, male and middle aged. We’ve seen a number of efforts to address this lack of diversity, particularly in the last year in light of the tragic events that have particularly affected people of color. Here to talk with me today is someone at the forefront of those efforts within the advisory profession.
Rather than going deep into one theme, this week we will do a “Random Thoughts” from the Frontline. Today we will cover several topics in shorter form: valuations, infrastructure, the debacle in Texas, and a lot more.
Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.
In late 2020, a new kid emerged on the bargain-of-the-decade block. UK stocks, and notably UK value, reached very cheap levels relative to value stocks in other developed economies. Today, UK value remains at remarkably low valuations relative to most of its fundamentals.
One of the most common complaints I hear from investors is that their advisors or brokers like to tell them when to buy, but never tell them when to sell. Whether those criticisms are fair or not, the sell decision is certainly the most vexing decision that investors face.
Jerome Powell enters the final year of his term as Federal Reserve chair enjoying the support of labor unions with influence in Joe Biden’s White House, an advantage as the administration prepares to decide later this year whether to reappoint the central bank chief.
Two top Senate Democrats said Wednesday they will keep pressuring President Joe Biden to wipe out up to $50,000 per borrower in student loan debt after he shot down the idea of doing so by executive action or without restrictions.
In this strange college admissions season, fewer high schoolers are turning in that dreaded number, their SAT score.
The Emerging Markets (EM) asset class is often labelled a commodity play for investment purposes. The argument is simple and directional; EM countries export commodities, so rising commodity prices are good for the asset class, whereas falling commodity prices hurt EM countries.
Emerging market equities have historically provided investors with outsized returns but have also been the biggest decliners during global equity market pullbacks. For the last 10 years they have lagged the performance of US Equity markets by a considerable margin. But with attractive relative valuations, higher earnings growth forecasts, and underrepresentation in global portfolios, we believe they are set to reverse that trend and outperform US markets over the next 5-10 years.
The Financial Planning Association, or FPA, is the principal membership organization for CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals and those who support the financial planning process. I am joined today by the two leaders of the FPA and a veteran observer of the financial planning profession. I am looking forward to a spirited discussion about the role that the FPA will play among financial planners, the challenges it faces and how my guests plan to overcome those challenges.
It isn't over and financial markets don't accept that yet. I realize suggesting anything negative about the virus is misanthropic, but the truth matters and the optics are misleading.
If, however, the pandemic continues into summer, it will mean the Gripping Hand is still squeezing us. Employment won’t recover and more small businesses will fail. This relief package, as large as it is, may prove necessary and maybe even too small.
Investors have parked record piles of cash on the sidelines amid concerns about valuations and volatility. But short-term safety comes at a price. By defining long-term goals, investors can put idle cash to work despite uncertainty about the path to recovery.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market remains a long way from a full recovery and called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers.
It’s more than enough money, at going prices, to buy one GameStop, two AMC Entertainments and four Bed Bath & Beyond's.
This is a new type of exchange-traded ETF that is built differently from a traditional ETF.
At some point, interest rates will move higher. Advisors must understand the inherent risks, and proactively evaluate alternatives for their fixed income portfolios to manage through successfully.
Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.
Today I want to discuss an arcane-sounding but incredibly important term you need to know: Yield Curve Control. Several central banks are already using it and I see a strong possibility the Fed will join them. But first we must again consider the Gripping Hand.
Effective vaccines, historic fiscal stimulus, Democratic Party control of the legislature, even more stimulus, reopening economies, 6% U.S. real GDP (gross domestic product) growth, 25% U.S. EPS (earnings per share) growth, and maybe even an infrastructure plan sprinkled on top.
Jerome Powell doesn’t want to talk about scaling back massive Federal Reserve asset purchases -- at least not yet -- but it’s only a question of time before the discussion resumes and that might not be a bad thing.
Massive growth in central bank balance sheets via quantitative easing, debt monetization, and firing of “big bazooka” stimulus packages brings renewed focus to potential shocks in the business cycle. An awareness of the macroeconomic “shocks” and their impact on asset prices should be incorporated in investors’ tactical asset-allocation decisions.
Keeping interest rates low in an effort to boost a weak economy, which the Federal Reserve has signaled it will do through at least 2023, may actually exacerbate wealth inequality between White and Black households, according to a new economic paper.
The argument that short sellers can capitalize on high-profile bad news is invalid.
As inflows to sustainable equities break new records, here’s what investors should look for to identify portfolios that align with their responsible investing goals.
Diversity & Inclusion
Bitcoin: An Asset Allocator’s Perspective
Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
A Proposal to Address Wealth and Health Inequality
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Economic Commentary on Infrastructure: U.S. Proposal, Global Gap, Digital Divide
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
The Results of the Veres/T3 Annual Software Survey
Joel Bruckenstein of T3 and I just released the 2021 T3/Inside Information Advisor Software Survey, which includes user ratings and market share statistics (and year-on-year changes to both) for more than 400 different software products and services in 32 different categories.
The Complicated Relationship Between Black Wealth and Education
For Black Americans, the prospect of student debt forgiveness, currently under consideration by President Joe Biden, would be especially welcome.
Inflation Has Gone K-Shaped in the Pandemic Like Everything Else
Low-income Americans bore the brunt of job losses when the pandemic arrived. Now they’re getting hit hardest by price increases as the economy recovers.
Looking Back at the Markets in Q1 and Ahead to Q2 2021
The first quarter looks to be the turning point, both for the pandemic here in the U.S. and for the economic damage it has caused.
Biden Infrastructure Plan Will Hurt, Not Help, Economy
President Biden’s massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill is on the tracks, rolling toward what many in Washington believe will be speedy passage in the House and Senate.
Q1 2021 Strategy Letter
Well, let’s just say things are different in 2021.
Don’t Mistake Rapid Jobs Gains for a Strong Labor Market
Despite a strong March 2021 jobs report, full employment remains far away.
Three Strategies for Navigating Turbulent Bond Markets
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
The Risk in Stocks of Fast Growing Companies
A fast-growing stock – what clients believe is the next Google – is likely to be a disappointing investment. New research, which validates the theory of behavioral economics, shows that “representativeness” explains why clients overweight stocks with high asset growth.
We’re on the Cusp of Mass Crypto Acceptance
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
Biden Aims to End Corporate Tax Cuts Rewarding Investors
The corporate tax-cut party President Donald Trump kicked off will soon be over if his successor proves able to enact proposals to roll back half of the 2017 domestic income-tax reduction and to radically revamp levies on profits earned abroad.
Spotlight LVMH: Bernard Arnault’s Luxury Empire
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a leading global luxury brands group.
Dealing With an Inflation Head Fake
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
The Coming Revolution in Complexity Economics
Standard neoclassical economics is a failure and is driving many of the crises facing our world.
Say Hello to Fedcoin, the U.S. Digital Currency
Might the federal government launch a digital or cryptocurrency? Early forecasts say the “fedcoin” has bipartisan support.
Diversity and Inclusion in the Asset Management Industry and Advisory Profession
Shundrawn Thomas is perhaps the only and certainly one of the few African Americans who leads a global investment firm. He’s been quite outspoken and visible with his views on racism and inequities. Over the last year, he wrote three open letters to civic and business leaders which addressed them in an extremely personal and direct manner. He has also appeared numerous times on television presenting the investment case for gender diversity.
What If We're Measuring Inflation All Wrong?
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
The 1970s Never Ended
Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s.
The False Narrative on ESG Asset Flows
Data has shown that investment strategies that address ESG issues constitute a third of professionally managed U.S. assets. That has led some to claim that asset prices have been driven up to the point where investors should expect poor performance going forward. That narrative is false.
Spotlight DeNA: Embracing the User’s Point of View
Pronounced “D-N-A,” this Knowledge Leader was founded in 1999 by three Tokyo entrepreneurs seeking to establish an online auction site.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in February
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.43% and is down 1.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.20%. The real number is down 2.5% year-over-year.
State Street Cuts ETF Fees, Amping Up Wall Street’s Race to Zero
The race to the bottom continues as two of the largest ETF issuers are slicing what investors pay in the $6 trillion industry’s battle to manage the most cash.
The Duration of Value And Growth
It is commonly assumed that growth stocks are bigger beneficiaries of falling interest rates than value stocks, an assumption driven by a belief that growth stocks are much longer “duration” than value stocks due to the fact that more value in growth companies comes from relatively more distant cash flows.
Japan Value: An Island of Potential In A Sea of Expensive Assets
Global stocks and bonds are both expensive. U.S. stocks are trading at particularly elevated valuations with the CAPE ratio standing at 35x (vs. a 10-year average of less than 27x) while the Barclays Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index offered a negative real yield at the end of February.
Growing Your Practice During COVID`
During these challenging times, growing a financial advisory firm is a study in the fundamentals: understanding your clients and building relationships.
Biden Determined to Tax the Rich After Windfalls From Covid Crisis
President Joe Biden’s economic team at the White House is determined to make good on his campaign pledge to raise taxes on the rich, emboldened by mounting data showing how well America’s wealthy did financially during the pandemic.
The Disappointing Record of Socially Responsible Hedge Funds
New research shows that hedge funds that proclaim to adhere to socially responsible investment principles fail to follow through on that commitment and they deliver inferior performance results. The same is true of institutional funds, although the evidence is weaker.
Nationwide’s Sixth Annual Advisor Authority Study – Women’s Retirement
As the COVID-19 pandemic wears on, women investors are more concerned about their finances and feel less prepared than they’ve been in years. Nearly three in four women with investable assets of $100,000 or more said the pandemic has negatively impacted their ability to retire. Ann Bair and Lori Hall present the findings from Nationwide’s sixth annual Advisor Authority study, powered by the Nationwide Retirement Institute®, reflecting the responses of more than 2,500 individual investors, advisors and financial professionals.
SPACs Power Past 2020 Record, Raising More Than $83 Billion in Three Months
Wall Street thought 2020 was the Year of the SPAC, or special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Turns out, this title was premature.
Ask Brad: Is a CFP About to Become a Requirement for RIAs?
Unwritten rules have as much power as written ones. That is true of padding a big lead in baseball and of whether RIAs need to have the CFP designation.
Fed Policy: Patience Is a Virtue
Following its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released a statement and summary of economic projections (SEP).
Quick Thoughts: Be an Ally to Women Entrepreneurs and Herstory
Entrepreneurial women’s lack of access to venture capital (VC) is one of the oldest stories in the world. How do we change herstory and empower women entrepreneurs and founders?
2020 in Review
Last year featured a jaw-dropping list of extremes, from a once-in-a-century pandemic to record-breaking market moves. Howard Marks writes in his latest memo about approaching the investment environment left in 2020’s wake – one generating many questions and no easy answers.
Voting Rights Fight Emerges as Key to Filibuster Overhaul
Senate Democrats launched their effort to pass sweeping voting rights legislation Wednesday, which could become the centerpiece of an attempt to weaken the chamber’s filibuster rule.
Wall Street Looks to Quietly Reopen Wallets for Politicians
Wall Street firms are quietly preparing to resume political giving in the next few months, marking an end to a freeze that many corporations vowed to impose after rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol in January to disrupt congressional certification of Donald Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden.
The Inflation Trade Anew
As the inflation discussion continues to gather momentum, please join guest speakers VanEck Portfolio Managers Shawn Reynolds and Roland Morris, Deputy Portfolio Manager Charles Cameron, and sector specialists Veronica Zhang from VanEck’s natural resource equity and commodity strategies.
It seems like it’s been awhile since there’s been such a strong alignment in commodities and natural resources, from tailwinds associated with the global recovery to strong fundamentals, valuations and growth prospects across industries at a company level. The VanEck team will guide you through an in-depth look at the latest trends, their implications and potential opportunities with an overview on our diverse solutions available to access this space.
The Big Four: February Real Retail Sales Down 3.3%
Month-over-month nominal sales in February decreased by 3.0%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 3.4%.
Biden Eyes First Major Tax Hike Since 1993 in Next Economic Plan
President Joe Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 to help pay for the long-term economic program designed as a follow-up to his pandemic-relief bill, according to people familiar with the matter.
Why are Financial Planners Failing Female Investors?
When it comes to investments, economic growth, and entrepreneurship, women remain structurally excluded from high-level participation compared to men.
Moving, With Bottlenecks
U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.
College Enrollment by U.S. Undergrads Drops 4.5% for Spring Term
U.S. colleges saw drops in undergraduate enrollment for this year’s spring semester as the emergence of Covid-19 vaccines failed to bring more students back to campus, deepening the pandemic-related financial strains faced by schools.
Warren Buffett Becomes Sixth Member of $100 Billion Club
Warren Buffett has been a fixture at the top of the world’s wealth rankings for decades, but in recent years he’s slipped down the list as tech fortunes soared and his hot hand cooled. Now, at 90, his net worth has blown past $100 billion.
Asia’s Health Care Sector Accelerates
The region’s health care sector is setting a brisk pace for growth and innovation. Our team discusses the opportunity set.
Three Ways the Biden Administration Will Boost ESG Investing
The Biden administration’s efforts to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, promote racial equity, and address climate change may well continue this momentum, creating powerful incentives for companies to do the right thing by the environment and their stakeholders.
An Employment Priority: Women Reentering the Workforce Are Pivotal to U.S. Economic Recovery
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
Business Travel Isn’t Dead, Says AmEx. But It’s Changing Forever
It’s pretty tough, one year deep into the global pandemic, to put a sunny face on the future of business travel. But for the people at American Express, the future of corporate travel looks … sort of fun?
Valuing Diverse Perspectives
As International Women’s Day approaches, three PIMCO executives share their perspectives on diversity in the workplace.
Portnoy-Backed ETF Sees Third-Highest Volume Ever in a Debut
A new exchange-traded fund seeking to ride the companies most loved by investors online has found plenty of its own positive sentiment in its first day of trading.
Climate Activist Who Took On BlackRock Now Takes Aim at Vanguard
Casey Harrell, the campaigner whose sustained pressure was instrumental in pushing BlackRock Inc. to act against climate change, approaches his work as if locked in a race against time. That was true even before the 42-year-old environmental activist was diagnosed last year with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.
Are Growth Stocks Attractive in a Post-Pandemic World?
The recent selloff of US growth market darlings reflects increasing questions about whether their growth potential still justifies exceptionally high valuations. Away from the froth, growth investors can still find solid return potential in quality companies with profitable, sustainable business models.
Warren Backs More Audits for Rich as Part of Wealth Tax Plan
Senator Elizabeth Warren said IRS funding should be bolstered so the richest Americans get audited about once every three years as part of her proposed 2% annual tax on wealth in excess of $50 million.
The Recipe for a Successful Practice
There is a recipe for advisory success, but it looks more like one for chili than for a cake. In other words, advising is more cooking than baking.
Government Bond Yields Have Surged, but Real Yields Are at Zero
Yields have jumped so much, in fact, that they’re giving stocks a serious run for their money. The 10-year yield is now higher than the S&P 500 dividend yield, which may have added to the selling pressure that cost stocks close to 2.5% yesterday.
The Great Jobs Reset
What normalcy will it be? I don’t expect to simply go back to the way things were. The economy as it was structured in December 2019 is gone forever. The world is different now. The economy will be different, too.
Treasury Auction Results Spark Drop in U.S. Stock Prices
Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.
NewsLetter - February 2021
We hope you enjoy Harold Evensky's latest NewsLetter.
The Queen’s Gambit Declined
The Queen’s Gambit miniseries helped propel Netflix to a winning earnings report last quarter, but in fact the chess strategy it is named after has helped propel chess players to winning games for decades.
Harvard Critics Ask Supreme Court to Ban Race in Admissions
Opponents of Harvard College’s affirmative action policies asked the Supreme Court to bar colleges from using race as an admissions factor, setting up what could be a defining showdown for higher education and the court’s conservative majority.
Renting All Your Furniture Means Never Discarding Another Sofa
Plastic-wrapped foam mattresses, dilapidated plastic shelving units, three-legged Ikea chairs—Jay Reno calls this “end-of-life” furniture. And it’s accumulating by the dumpster-full in landfills.
Vaccine Nationalism, Minimum Wage, Rising Energy Prices
Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.
Spectate or Speculate
Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.
Minisode - Overcoming the Diversity Challenge in the Advisory Profession
It doesn’t take Black History Month to remind our listeners of the lack of diversity in the advisory profession. Of the countless conferences I’ve attended – when it was possible to attend such conferences – the overwhelming majority of attendees were like me: white, male and middle aged. We’ve seen a number of efforts to address this lack of diversity, particularly in the last year in light of the tragic events that have particularly affected people of color. Here to talk with me today is someone at the forefront of those efforts within the advisory profession.
Random Thoughts from the Frontline
Rather than going deep into one theme, this week we will do a “Random Thoughts” from the Frontline. Today we will cover several topics in shorter form: valuations, infrastructure, the debacle in Texas, and a lot more.
Texas Freezes, but a New Commodities Supercycle Could Be Heating Up
Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.
How COVID-19 Vaccines and Brexit Create the Trade of the 2020s
In late 2020, a new kid emerged on the bargain-of-the-decade block. UK stocks, and notably UK value, reached very cheap levels relative to value stocks in other developed economies. Today, UK value remains at remarkably low valuations relative to most of its fundamentals.
How To Know When To Sell A Tech Stock?
One of the most common complaints I hear from investors is that their advisors or brokers like to tell them when to buy, but never tell them when to sell. Whether those criticisms are fair or not, the sell decision is certainly the most vexing decision that investors face.
Powell’s Approach to Recovery, Inflation Will Test Union Loyalty
Jerome Powell enters the final year of his term as Federal Reserve chair enjoying the support of labor unions with influence in Joe Biden’s White House, an advantage as the administration prepares to decide later this year whether to reappoint the central bank chief.
Schumer, Warren Challenge Biden on Student Debt Cancellation
Two top Senate Democrats said Wednesday they will keep pressuring President Joe Biden to wipe out up to $50,000 per borrower in student loan debt after he shot down the idea of doing so by executive action or without restrictions.
SATs, Once Hailed as Ivy League Equalizers, Fall From Favor
In this strange college admissions season, fewer high schoolers are turning in that dreaded number, their SAT score.
EM Is No Longer a Commodity Play
The Emerging Markets (EM) asset class is often labelled a commodity play for investment purposes. The argument is simple and directional; EM countries export commodities, so rising commodity prices are good for the asset class, whereas falling commodity prices hurt EM countries.
Emerging Market Equities Set for Outperformance
Emerging market equities have historically provided investors with outsized returns but have also been the biggest decliners during global equity market pullbacks. For the last 10 years they have lagged the performance of US Equity markets by a considerable margin. But with attractive relative valuations, higher earnings growth forecasts, and underrepresentation in global portfolios, we believe they are set to reverse that trend and outperform US markets over the next 5-10 years.
The Future of the Financial Planning Association
The Financial Planning Association, or FPA, is the principal membership organization for CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals and those who support the financial planning process. I am joined today by the two leaders of the FPA and a veteran observer of the financial planning profession. I am looking forward to a spirited discussion about the role that the FPA will play among financial planners, the challenges it faces and how my guests plan to overcome those challenges.
Beware the Fourth Wave of COVID-19
It isn't over and financial markets don't accept that yet. I realize suggesting anything negative about the virus is misanthropic, but the truth matters and the optics are misleading.
Overstimulation Risk
If, however, the pandemic continues into summer, it will mean the Gripping Hand is still squeezing us. Employment won’t recover and more small businesses will fail. This relief package, as large as it is, may prove necessary and maybe even too small.
Cold Cash? How to Redeploy in Hot Markets
Investors have parked record piles of cash on the sidelines amid concerns about valuations and volatility. But short-term safety comes at a price. By defining long-term goals, investors can put idle cash to work despite uncertainty about the path to recovery.
Powell Urges ‘Society-Wide’ Push to Deliver Full Employment
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. job market remains a long way from a full recovery and called on both lawmakers and the private sector to support workers.
Coleman Leads $23 Billion Payday for 15 Hedge Fund Earners
It’s more than enough money, at going prices, to buy one GameStop, two AMC Entertainments and four Bed Bath & Beyond's.
Active Semi-Transparent ETFs: What’s Under the Hood?
This is a new type of exchange-traded ETF that is built differently from a traditional ETF.
Rising Interest Rates Can Wreak Havoc on Fixed Income Portfolios
At some point, interest rates will move higher. Advisors must understand the inherent risks, and proactively evaluate alternatives for their fixed income portfolios to manage through successfully.
Inflation Concerns, Italy's Battered Economy, Low Rental Demand
Any surge in inflation will likely not last for long, but Italy's economic troubles and the shift in rental markets may endure.
Controlling the Curve
Today I want to discuss an arcane-sounding but incredibly important term you need to know: Yield Curve Control. Several central banks are already using it and I see a strong possibility the Fed will join them. But first we must again consider the Gripping Hand.
Why U.S. Rates Are Only Likely To Rise Modestly In 2021
Effective vaccines, historic fiscal stimulus, Democratic Party control of the legislature, even more stimulus, reopening economies, 6% U.S. real GDP (gross domestic product) growth, 25% U.S. EPS (earnings per share) growth, and maybe even an infrastructure plan sprinkled on top.
Fed Dissent and Bond Volatility Are in Powell’s Taper Future
Jerome Powell doesn’t want to talk about scaling back massive Federal Reserve asset purchases -- at least not yet -- but it’s only a question of time before the discussion resumes and that might not be a bad thing.
Beware the Shocks in the Road
Massive growth in central bank balance sheets via quantitative easing, debt monetization, and firing of “big bazooka” stimulus packages brings renewed focus to potential shocks in the business cycle. An awareness of the macroeconomic “shocks” and their impact on asset prices should be incorporated in investors’ tactical asset-allocation decisions.
Low U.S. Rates Exacerbate Racial Wealth Gap, Paper Shows
Keeping interest rates low in an effort to boost a weak economy, which the Federal Reserve has signaled it will do through at least 2023, may actually exacerbate wealth inequality between White and Black households, according to a new economic paper.
Who Gets Harmed When You Ban Short Selling?
The argument that short sellers can capitalize on high-profile bad news is invalid.
How to Choose a Sustainable Equity Portfolio
As inflows to sustainable equities break new records, here’s what investors should look for to identify portfolios that align with their responsible investing goals.