The latest full set UIG for March is 2.16% while the prices-only measure is 2.58%. Current Headline CPI is now 2.62% and Core CPI is 1.65%.
Millions of Americans, it seems, felt that the time was right to trade in their clunkers for a new set of wheels.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.62%, up from 1.68% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.65%, up from 1.28% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.
The headline number for March came in at 98.2, up 2.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 38th percentile in this series.
A wealth tax is a bad way to pay off pandemic debts and probably would become permanent if introduced, Nobel Prize-winning economist Angus Deaton said.
Uneven COVID-19 vaccination rates around the globe have led to diverging growth expectations for individual economies.
Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
From 1949 through 1964, the S&P 500 enjoyed an average annual total return of 16.4%. In the 8 years that followed, through 1972, the total return of the index averaged a substantially lower 7.6% annually; strikingly close to the 7.5% projection that Graham had suggested based on prevailing valuations, yet still providing what Graham had suggested would likely “carry a fair degree of protection” against inflation, which averaged 3.9% over that period.
On Monday, the Treasury Department is expected to report a March budget deficit of about $658 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $4.1 trillion, about 19% of GDP. Proponents argue that the added spending, with more to come, will help to ensure the recovery.
Computer chips, or semiconductors, power everything from cars to consumer electronics, such as PCs, gaming consoles and smartphones.
Another round of stimulus totaling $1.9 trillion is making its way through the US economy, with hopes it will trigger a sharp rebound from the ravages of COVID-19.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Last week's headline number of -71.08B was more negative than the Investing.com forecast of -70.50B.
Friday morning's release of the March Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 1.0% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.5% increase last month. It is at 4.2% year-over-year, up from 2.8% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.7% MoM, up from the previous month and is up 3.1% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.5% headline and 0.2% core.
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
A year ago, the U.S. registered its deepest economic contraction since the Second World War.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for March. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.0%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 916K.
With global equities trading near record highs, many investors are questioning the potential for continued gains going forward.
President Biden’s massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill is on the tracks, rolling toward what many in Washington believe will be speedy passage in the House and Senate.
Ulf Erlandsson isn’t your typical climate campaigner: He prefers the trading desk to the picket line.
Inflation was a first-quarter problem. Investors are now fretting over the potential tax bill companies could face as part of President Joe Biden’s proposed $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan.
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Last month I forecasted we’d see a travel boom this summer as newly vaccinated Americans book their first big trips and vacations since the pandemic began.
Given a potential inflationary environment, we have taken great care to emphasize companies that we believe have pricing power because of the mission-critical or value-add nature of their products and services.
Within the growth-vs.-value context, we’d like to discuss three Covid-related scenarios for companies.
Dumb and Dumber was a 1994 movie which tells the story of Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) and Harry Dunne (Jeff Daniels)
We have all endured the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year now.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 916K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 733K service-providing jobs and a gain of 183K goods-producing jobs.
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end.
Central banks will go digital, and homeowners avoided foreclosure.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at percent 63.7, up 8.4 from 55.3 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 59.0 percent.
The March US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 59.7 percent, down 0.1 from the final February estimate of 59.8.
As we know, change is on the horizon, in one way or another. The current exclusion limits are scheduled to expire in 2025, according to the terms of the TCJA, unless renewed by Congress.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. March's 916K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 156K more jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 647K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 6.0%.
The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.”
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
Although tough trade-offs are sometimes unavoidable, there is a way for policymakers to maintain a robust global economic recovery in 2021 and beyond while simultaneously pulling up disadvantaged countries, groups, and regions. But it will require both national and international policy adaptations.
Many high school seniors looking to attend the most competitive U.S. colleges are about to have their hearts broken after an already difficult year.
After a blowout 2020 for corporate debt, exchange-traded fund investors are quickly souring on those bonds.
Some call the recent rotation from growth to value outperformance transitory. We believe it may have staying power, making value stocks a formidable complement to growth in a balanced equity portfolio.
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for March. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 64.7, an increase of 3.9 from 60.8 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 61.3 percent.
The March US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 59.1, up 0.5 from the 58.6 final February figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Traditional Easter and Passover lamb-centered meals mark peak season for the often overlooked protein. But one year ago, the arrival of the pandemic sent the U.S. lamb industry into a tailspin.
Everyone’s excited about the prospects for a sharp economic recovery as increasing numbers of Americans get their Covid-19 vaccinations. Well, almost everyone -- holders of U.S. Treasuries have serious reasons for concern.
For many investment advisors, the ’08 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic highlighted just how valuable the Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) model can be for their businesses. With more freedom and control to do what’s best for their clients, independence has helped advisors soar when the odds are stacked against them. In this four-part white paper, we share insights from real RIAs on how the RIA model has helped them navigate turbulent times, the unique advantages they’ve enjoyed through independence, and why now is the best time for you to make the transition.
Download this white paper to discover how the RIA model has helped advisors thrive, with discussions centered around:
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the March estimate of 517K nonfarm private employment jobs gained from ADP, an increase over February's revised 176K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Today the National Association of Realtors released the February data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales dipped for a second straight month in February."
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 66.3 in March from 59.5 in February, which is in expansion territory and its highest since July 2018. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Students who received emergency financial aid grants related to the coronavirus pandemic won’t owe taxes on that money, according to the Internal Revenue Service.
If there’s one key takeaway for financial markets after a year of pandemic, it’s that officials now seem predisposed to throwing huge amounts of money at protecting their economies.
The U.S. economic reopening trade is back in full force, sending 10-year Treasury yields up to 1.77% for the first time since January 2020.
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Today, it seems to be an article of faith among US policymakers and many economists that the world’s appetite for dollar debt is virtually insatiable.
The headline number of 109.7 was an increase of 19.3 from the final reading of 90.4 for February. This was above the Investing.com consensus of 96.9.
With today's release of the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.2% increase month over month which is cut to 1.1% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw an 11.1% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices were up 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 12.0% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.65% in January and up 10.59% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The latest general business activity index came in at 28.9, up 11.7 from 17.2 in February. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Addressing technical, idiosyncratic and structural aspects of inflation.
Standard neoclassical economics is a failure and is driving many of the crises facing our world.
Economic data rarely follow a smooth path. Weather and external events have effects.
I recently discussed why “Free, Isn’t Really Free” regarding the retail investor. While “free trades” have certainly reduced the transaction costs, the selling of data to the highest bidder has likely cost investors more than they saved.
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
A Green New Deal should not be viewed as a big government program, but as an opportunity to reinvent vast swaths of the U.S. economy while pursuing the laudable goal of carbon neutrality
With the release of this morning's report on February Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -7.99% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -8.20% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 11.42% nominal and 11.05% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 4.56% nominal and 2.96% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.43% and is down 1.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.20%. The real number is down 2.5% year-over-year.
As harrowing as it has been to watch bond yields jump, watching them sit still would’ve been worse for stock investors banking on a major revival in earnings this year.
The latest index came in at 26, up 2 from last month's 24, which indicates expansion in February. The future outlook increased to 35 this month from 34. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Economic growth is picking up and the stock market is trending higher, but in a choppy fashion that lately resembles a “bunny” market more than a bull market.
Financial markets are obsessed with where inflation is headed. Statisticians are struggling to figure out where it’s at.
A bond designed to raise funds to grow the population of endangered black rhinoceros in South Africa will be sold by the World Bank this year.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 719K new claims, up 61K from the previous week's downwardly revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 680K. Annual revisions were made.
The government’s COVID relief programs have cost $5.2 trillion, more than World War II, which cost $4.7 trillion. Those mountains of money will cause inflation, raise interest rates and reduce in stock prices.
A compelling argument can be made that the 21st century US economy has been a two-decade series of disappointments.
Global stocks and bonds are both expensive. U.S. stocks are trading at particularly elevated valuations with the CAPE ratio standing at 35x (vs. a 10-year average of less than 27x) while the Barclays Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index offered a negative real yield at the end of February.
This morning's release of the February New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 775K, down 18.2% month-over-month from a revised 948K in December. The Investing.com forecast was for 875K. The median home price is now at $349K.
During these challenging times, growing a financial advisory firm is a study in the fundamentals: understanding your clients and building relationships.
There are many studies that provide aspiring leaders with sound guidance on how to manage your firm, and how to create a happy, collegial and productive environment.
Citigroup Inc., one of the biggest Wall Street underwriters, on Monday advised investors to avoid bonds sold by state student loan agencies, citing the risk that more graduates will need to get temporary reprieves from their debts.
About $22 trillion of wealth was created in U.S. stocks, roughly the country’s total annual output. An exchange-traded fund tracking the airline industry has more than doubled. At least 45 companies in the S&P 500 have surged by more than 200%, including Tesla Inc., up almost 700%.
The American Rescue Plan (ARP) has some welcome relief for clients who are responsible for obtaining their own health insurance coverage. Clients could benefit from the enhanced health insurance subsidies, maximal assistance for those who claim unemployment, a new round of COBRA premium assistance, and forgiveness of 2020 premium tax credit overcalculations.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
Underlying Inflation Gauge: March Update
The latest full set UIG for March is 2.16% while the prices-only measure is 2.58%. Current Headline CPI is now 2.62% and Core CPI is 1.65%.
The Best Business Conditions of the 21st Century?
Millions of Americans, it seems, felt that the time was right to trade in their clunkers for a new set of wheels.
Job Openings & Labor Turnover: February 2020 Update
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available.
Consumer Price Index: March Headline at 2.62%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.62%, up from 1.68% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.65%, up from 1.28% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.
NFIB Small Business Survey Increases in March
The headline number for March came in at 98.2, up 2.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 38th percentile in this series.
Nobel Economist Warns Against Wealth Tax to Pay for Pandemic
A wealth tax is a bad way to pay off pandemic debts and probably would become permanent if introduced, Nobel Prize-winning economist Angus Deaton said.
Loomis Sayles' Investment Outlook – April 2021
Uneven COVID-19 vaccination rates around the globe have led to diverging growth expectations for individual economies.
Bitcoin: An Asset Allocator’s Perspective
Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
A Proposal to Address Wealth and Health Inequality
Our nation’s major divisions are wealth and health inequality. Protracting both divisions are voters who want more benefits or lower taxes. I offer actuarially based solutions to both inequalities.
Economic Commentary on Infrastructure: U.S. Proposal, Global Gap, Digital Divide
Infrastructure merits more investment, everywhere; we look at the specifics of the U.S. proposal.
Always a Reckoning
From 1949 through 1964, the S&P 500 enjoyed an average annual total return of 16.4%. In the 8 years that followed, through 1972, the total return of the index averaged a substantially lower 7.6% annually; strikingly close to the 7.5% projection that Graham had suggested based on prevailing valuations, yet still providing what Graham had suggested would likely “carry a fair degree of protection” against inflation, which averaged 3.9% over that period.
Spending, Deficits, and Debt
On Monday, the Treasury Department is expected to report a March budget deficit of about $658 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $4.1 trillion, about 19% of GDP. Proponents argue that the added spending, with more to come, will help to ensure the recovery.
Global Chip Shortage: The Winners and Losers
Computer chips, or semiconductors, power everything from cars to consumer electronics, such as PCs, gaming consoles and smartphones.
State and Local Governments Get Shot of Stimulus
Another round of stimulus totaling $1.9 trillion is making its way through the US economy, with hopes it will trigger a sharp rebound from the ravages of COVID-19.
February Trade Deficit at $71.1B, 4.8% More Than January
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Last week's headline number of -71.08B was more negative than the Investing.com forecast of -70.50B.
March Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.7% MoM
Friday morning's release of the March Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 1.0% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.5% increase last month. It is at 4.2% year-over-year, up from 2.8% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.7% MoM, up from the previous month and is up 3.1% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.5% headline and 0.2% core.
Positive First-Quarter Data Point to a Global, Sustained Economic Boom
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
CIO Says, “Resilience Is in Our DNA – and in the Markets”
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
Gaining Traction
A year ago, the U.S. registered its deepest economic contraction since the Second World War.
U.S. Workforce: March 2021 Update
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for March. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.0%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 916K.
Secular Tailwinds Prevail Across Market Cycles
With global equities trading near record highs, many investors are questioning the potential for continued gains going forward.
Biden Infrastructure Plan Will Hurt, Not Help, Economy
President Biden’s massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill is on the tracks, rolling toward what many in Washington believe will be speedy passage in the House and Senate.
Bond Vigilante Calls Out ‘Dead Fish’ Credit Investors on Climate
Ulf Erlandsson isn’t your typical climate campaigner: He prefers the trading desk to the picket line.
Investors Start Fretting Over Threat of U.S. Corporate-Tax Hike
Inflation was a first-quarter problem. Investors are now fretting over the potential tax bill companies could face as part of President Joe Biden’s proposed $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan.
Global Equities: Reviewing the Risks to Recovery
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Fully Vaccinated People Are Free to Fly Commercial Again
Last month I forecasted we’d see a travel boom this summer as newly vaccinated Americans book their first big trips and vacations since the pandemic began.
International and Global Markets Commentary & Investment Outlook
Given a potential inflationary environment, we have taken great care to emphasize companies that we believe have pricing power because of the mission-critical or value-add nature of their products and services.
Market Leadership Shifted as Investors Gained Confidence in a Post-Covid Economic Rebound
Within the growth-vs.-value context, we’d like to discuss three Covid-related scenarios for companies.
Dumb and Dumber III
Dumb and Dumber was a 1994 movie which tells the story of Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) and Harry Dunne (Jeff Daniels)
Light at the End of a Long Tunnel
We have all endured the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year now.
Full-time and Part-time Employment: A Deeper Look
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Hit Me With Your Best Shot: Speculative Trades Take a Breather
As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.
Jobs!
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
March Employment: Services Vs. Goods Producing Jobs
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 916K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 733K service-providing jobs and a gain of 183K goods-producing jobs.
Three Strategies for Navigating Turbulent Bond Markets
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
Jobs Are Booming
When the scientists said “15 days to slow the spread,” some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end.
Economic Commentary: Digital Currencies, Mortgage Forbearance, Pets
Central banks will go digital, and homeowners avoided foreclosure.
ISM Services: 10th Consecutive Month of Expansion
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at percent 63.7, up 8.4 from 55.3 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 59.0 percent.
March Markit Services PMI: "Fastest rise in business activity since July 2014 as new order growth reaches six-year high"
The March US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 59.7 percent, down 0.1 from the final February estimate of 59.8.
What Are You Telling Your Clients about Coming Changes in the Estate Tax Exemption?
As we know, change is on the horizon, in one way or another. The current exclusion limits are scheduled to expire in 2025, according to the terms of the TCJA, unless renewed by Congress.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. March's 916K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 156K more jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 647K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 6.0%.
The Exponential Ride
The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.”
We’re on the Cusp of Mass Crypto Acceptance
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
Ensuring a Stronger and Fairer Global Recovery
Although tough trade-offs are sometimes unavoidable, there is a way for policymakers to maintain a robust global economic recovery in 2021 and beyond while simultaneously pulling up disadvantaged countries, groups, and regions. But it will require both national and international policy adaptations.
Ivy League Schools Are About to Deliver Extra Dose of Heartache
Many high school seniors looking to attend the most competitive U.S. colleges are about to have their hearts broken after an already difficult year.
Biggest Credit ETF Bleeds $3.6 Billion in Worst-Ever Month
After a blowout 2020 for corporate debt, exchange-traded fund investors are quickly souring on those bonds.
Opportunity Still Alive in Value Stocks
Some call the recent rotation from growth to value outperformance transitory. We believe it may have staying power, making value stocks a formidable complement to growth in a balanced equity portfolio.
The Dilemma - Why investments Must Be Boosted But Also Why Society May Not Be Able to Afford It
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
March ISM Manufacturing Index: Strong Growth
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for March. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 64.7, an increase of 3.9 from 60.8 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 61.3 percent.
March Markit Manufacturing: "March PMI at second-highest on record amid marked new order growth and supply chain disruptions"
The March US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 59.1, up 0.5 from the 58.6 final February figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
How the Pandemic Made Lamb More Popular in America
Traditional Easter and Passover lamb-centered meals mark peak season for the often overlooked protein. But one year ago, the arrival of the pandemic sent the U.S. lamb industry into a tailspin.
Bond Traders Gird for More Pain After Biggest Loss Since 1980
Everyone’s excited about the prospects for a sharp economic recovery as increasing numbers of Americans get their Covid-19 vaccinations. Well, almost everyone -- holders of U.S. Treasuries have serious reasons for concern.
Rise Above
For many investment advisors, the ’08 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic highlighted just how valuable the Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) model can be for their businesses. With more freedom and control to do what’s best for their clients, independence has helped advisors soar when the odds are stacked against them. In this four-part white paper, we share insights from real RIAs on how the RIA model has helped them navigate turbulent times, the unique advantages they’ve enjoyed through independence, and why now is the best time for you to make the transition.
Download this white paper to discover how the RIA model has helped advisors thrive, with discussions centered around:
A Closer Look at Today's ADP Employment Report
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the March estimate of 517K nonfarm private employment jobs gained from ADP, an increase over February's revised 176K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Pending Home Sales Down 10.6% in February
Today the National Association of Realtors released the February data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales dipped for a second straight month in February."
Chicago PMI Highest Since July 2018
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 66.3 in March from 59.5 in February, which is in expansion territory and its highest since July 2018. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Students Won’t be Taxed on Emergency Pandemic Aid, IRS Says
Students who received emergency financial aid grants related to the coronavirus pandemic won’t owe taxes on that money, according to the Internal Revenue Service.
‘MMT-Lite’ Is Reshaping Markets and May Get $2 Trillion Lift
If there’s one key takeaway for financial markets after a year of pandemic, it’s that officials now seem predisposed to throwing huge amounts of money at protecting their economies.
Bond Rout Reignites as U.S. Stimulus Bets Overshadow Quarter-End
The U.S. economic reopening trade is back in full force, sending 10-year Treasury yields up to 1.77% for the first time since January 2020.
K2 Advisors Second Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
Dealing With an Inflation Head Fake
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
The Dollar’s Fragile Hegemony
Today, it seems to be an article of faith among US policymakers and many economists that the world’s appetite for dollar debt is virtually insatiable.
Consumer Confidence Highest in a Year
The headline number of 109.7 was an increase of 19.3 from the final reading of 90.4 for February. This was above the Investing.com consensus of 96.9.
January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 11.2% YoY NSA
With today's release of the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.2% increase month over month which is cut to 1.1% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw an 11.1% YoY increase.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.0% in January
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for January. U.S. house prices were up 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 12.0% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.65% in January and up 10.59% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
March Dallas Fed Manufacturing
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The latest general business activity index came in at 28.9, up 11.7 from 17.2 in February. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Economic Commentary on Inflation: Base Effects, Supply Chain Disruptions and Aging Populations
Addressing technical, idiosyncratic and structural aspects of inflation.
The Coming Revolution in Complexity Economics
Standard neoclassical economics is a failure and is driving many of the crises facing our world.
A Bumpy, But Strong Recovery
Economic data rarely follow a smooth path. Weather and external events have effects.
#MacroView: Could A “Transaction Tax” Be A Good Thing?
I recently discussed why “Free, Isn’t Really Free” regarding the retail investor. While “free trades” have certainly reduced the transaction costs, the selling of data to the highest bidder has likely cost investors more than they saved.
What If We're Measuring Inflation All Wrong?
My question, as always, is whether we’re measuring inflation accurately. What if we’re doing it all wrong? As investors, we want to make decisions based on the best available data, so what should we do if the data is incomplete or flawed?
A Successful Green New Deal Will Need Private Partners
A Green New Deal should not be viewed as a big government program, but as an opportunity to reinvent vast swaths of the U.S. economy while pursuing the laudable goal of carbon neutrality
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in February
With the release of this morning's report on February Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -7.99% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -8.20% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 11.42% nominal and 11.05% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 4.56% nominal and 2.96% real.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in February
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.43% and is down 1.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.20%. The real number is down 2.5% year-over-year.
Ed Yardeni Can Live With Higher Yields for the Sake of Earnings
As harrowing as it has been to watch bond yields jump, watching them sit still would’ve been worse for stock investors banking on a major revival in earnings this year.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Solid Manufacturing Growth in March
The latest index came in at 26, up 2 from last month's 24, which indicates expansion in February. The future outlook increased to 35 this month from 34. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Quarterly Market Outlook: Different Speeds
Economic growth is picking up and the stock market is trending higher, but in a choppy fashion that lately resembles a “bunny” market more than a bull market.
Pandemic Shopping Habits Are Giving Inflation Experts a Headache
Financial markets are obsessed with where inflation is headed. Statisticians are struggling to figure out where it’s at.
World’s First Wildlife Bond to Track Rhino Numbers in Africa
A bond designed to raise funds to grow the population of endangered black rhinoceros in South Africa will be sold by the World Bank this year.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 61K, Worse Than Forecast, Annual Revisions
This morning's seasonally adjusted 719K new claims, up 61K from the previous week's downwardly revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 680K. Annual revisions were made.
COVID has Cost More than World War II and We Haven’t Paid the True Price Yet
The government’s COVID relief programs have cost $5.2 trillion, more than World War II, which cost $4.7 trillion. Those mountains of money will cause inflation, raise interest rates and reduce in stock prices.
More Reasons For Economic Optimism Just Ahead
A compelling argument can be made that the 21st century US economy has been a two-decade series of disappointments.
Japan Value: An Island of Potential In A Sea of Expensive Assets
Global stocks and bonds are both expensive. U.S. stocks are trading at particularly elevated valuations with the CAPE ratio standing at 35x (vs. a 10-year average of less than 27x) while the Barclays Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index offered a negative real yield at the end of February.
New Home Sales Fell 18.2% in February
This morning's release of the February New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 775K, down 18.2% month-over-month from a revised 948K in December. The Investing.com forecast was for 875K. The median home price is now at $349K.
Growing Your Practice During COVID`
During these challenging times, growing a financial advisory firm is a study in the fundamentals: understanding your clients and building relationships.
Leadership Hacks That Make an Immediate Impact
There are many studies that provide aspiring leaders with sound guidance on how to manage your firm, and how to create a happy, collegial and productive environment.
Citigroup, Baird Diverge Over Risk in Student-Loan Muni Debt
Citigroup Inc., one of the biggest Wall Street underwriters, on Monday advised investors to avoid bonds sold by state student loan agencies, citing the risk that more graduates will need to get temporary reprieves from their debts.
Market Timers in S&P 500 Pay a High Price for Perfect Prescience
About $22 trillion of wealth was created in U.S. stocks, roughly the country’s total annual output. An exchange-traded fund tracking the airline industry has more than doubled. At least 45 companies in the S&P 500 have surged by more than 200%, including Tesla Inc., up almost 700%.
Client Opportunities for Health Insurance Coverage Under the American Rescue Plan
The American Rescue Plan (ARP) has some welcome relief for clients who are responsible for obtaining their own health insurance coverage. Clients could benefit from the enhanced health insurance subsidies, maximal assistance for those who claim unemployment, a new round of COBRA premium assistance, and forgiveness of 2020 premium tax credit overcalculations.