COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage

I meet few humble advisors. Most are supremely confident in their knowledge of all things financial. This confidence is rarely justified.

2020 has proven a challenging year for numerous businesses and individuals, Grey Owl Capital Management included. While most domestic stock market indices have fully recovered from the February and March Covid sell-off, many of our accounts are still down slightly on a year-to-date basis through the end of September.

With the economy slowing in September, the battle for a quick rebound may be far from over.

The U.S. strategy to rely on vaccines and treatments, rather than emphasizing social distancing, masks and testing nationwide, threatens to delay the return to normal life for Americans.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is seeking to keep 95% of the U.S. out of New York as the coronavirus rages across the nation.

The “end of globalization” is a phrase that has come up a lot lately. Stories written about deglobalization have soared this year with the pandemic.

The S&P 500 posted its worst daily decline since late September but didn’t entirely erode October gains.

Beauty has restorative powers. Just ask visitors to the Metropolitan Museum in New York, to the desert monoliths in Moab, to the new Dries van Noten store in Los Angeles since the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic. Even if objets d’art can’t cure Covid-19, they calm the mind, soothe the soul, inspire the heart.

Our experience tells us that we have hope from the indignity and humiliation of the present circumstances.

The headline number of 100.9 was a decrease from the final reading of 101.3 for August. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 102.0.

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 85 is up 2 from last month's 83 and at its highest level in the indicator's history, exceeding its December 1998 record.

With today's release of the August S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 0.46% increase month over month which is cut to 0.34% with inflation adjustment.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for August. U.S. house prices were up 1.5percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 8.1% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 1.01% in August and up 7.2% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).

When it comes to reading things online, we have a selective attention span; this is why it’s so important to optimize subject lines in both blog posts and your email marketing.

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -12.3% (-35.3 billion vehicle miles) for August 2020 as compared with August 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 251.3 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 1.1% month-over-month and down 8.8% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 1.19% month-over-month and down 9.9% year-over-year.

My 2007 book, Wise Investing Made Simple: Larry Swedroe’s Tales to Enrich Your Future, contained 27 tales to educate investors about important investment concepts and strategies. This article is in the spirit of those tales.

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly.

The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-August, are now available.

Fostering immigration, encouraging family expansion, and stopping COVID-19 are tough problems with no easy solutions.

It’s the final countdown! Between the flared debate tensions and President Trump testing positive for COVID-19 on the campaign trail, the 2020 presidential election has arguably been one of the most contested and unique battles for the presidency in history.

There are a number of uncertainties heading into the November 4 election and many more as we look ahead into 2021. There’s a long held belief that the stock market abhors uncertainty. There’s also an old adage that says the market often climbs a wall of worry.

Why is it hard to get clients to take preventative action to protect themselves from real and measurable risks?

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for October. The latest general business activity index came in at 19.8, up 6.2 from 13.6 in September. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

This morning's release of the September New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 959K, down 3.5% month-over-month from a revised 994K in August. The Investing.com forecast was for 1.025M.

Sending a ballot by mail may seem straightforward, but the rules can be complex. Brian Horrigan explains some of the challenges associated with mail-in voting.

Led by some further moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in September from +1.11 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but three of the four categories decreased from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +1.33 in September from +3.22 in August.

Across emerging markets, growth in e-commerce accelerates as the pandemic reshapes consumers' shopping patterns.

The coronavirus has compressed years of changes into months. It may be the straw that broke an aging, overconfident camel’s back.

Here at U.S. Global Investors, we’re very bullish on commodities, particularly industrial and precious metals.

Today I want to discuss why the economy will recover, how that will happen and what it will look like. It won’t look like 2019, but the recovery will have its own flavor as we fast-forward future industries. I think that’s a good thing.vvv

The coronavirus pandemic has created many challenges for individuals, businesses and governments around the world. In Europe, there’s a new vehicle to help finance the economic recovery there—social bonds. David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income, discusses this exciting new bond issuance, earmarked for funding employment initiatives.

In this short Q&A, Teresa Kong, Portfolio Manager, provides her insights on the economic impact of the coronavirus and where she sees risks and opportunities, and why the current prices could represent a once in a decade opportunity to buy Asia high yield.

We are earlier than usual this month because of the upcoming presidential election. See why a US constitutional crisis could unfold in the days and weeks to come if Trump delivers on his earlier ‘promise’ not to accept the outcome, should he lose on the 3rd November.

While there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, the process will remain intact regardless of who wins. Brian Horrigan shares a refresher on the Electoral College.

As Prime Minister Suga begins his administration, the message is one of continuity, but Abenomics may need a reboot after COVID-19. We examine what Suganomics may mean for Japan.

Facebook Inc. released its nascent dating feature to European users following months of delays caused by the data protection concerns of local regulators.

The message from the bond market after the latest brief leap in yields is clear: The Federal Reserve is standing by to prevent an alarming increase in rates, no matter how much debt the Treasury sells amid the pandemic.

With the coronavirus largely under control in China, we have an opportunity to consider what the post-COVID investment environment there might look like.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the unexpectedly early pickup in coronavirus infections is a “clear risk” to the economic outlook, in a sign that policy makers are gearing up for more monetary stimulus.

The hunt for new hedges is in full gear.

Domestic U.S. airfares fell by the most on record in the second quarter -- another illustration of how the coronavirus pandemic gutted demand for flights.

Canada’s central bank looks to evolve its policy framework amid concern over disinflationary trends.

• Without statistical support, political party and tax regime changes have not translated to discernable market performance.
• Global fiscal and monetary stimulus during COVID already far surpass what the world saw during and after the Great Recession.
• Equity and credit markets domestically and abroad continued to shrug off headlines, helping recoup some if not all of the losses from earlier this year.
• Anchored short-term interest rates helped investment grade fixed income yet another quarter.

Markets have continued to rally despite the ongoing economic impact of the pandemic and the uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. election. We’re expecting increased volatility in the near term, and we think a cautious approach is the best course of action.

U.S. Treasury bonds are not likely to repeat their spectacular performance as income-producing risk reducers in portfolios of the past four decades. While bonds still have an important role to play in some settings (e.g., liability hedging for retirement plans), we believe investors should look at alternatives for diversification, including inflation-protected securities, gold, defensive currencies and stocks and option protection.

On October 8, Square SQ, the payments company helmed by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, announced that it purchased 4,709 Bitcoins, a $50 million investment, representing 1% of the firm’s total asset. As a result, Square became the second technology firm to go long on Bitcoin in recent months after MicroStrategy MSTR, a business intelligence firm, crowned the crypto as its treasury reserve asset of choice.

Emerging-market debt has rebounded sharply off March lows, but attractive yields and compelling opportunities persist. We provide a roadmap for what may lie ahead.

Amid a global pandemic and continued U.S.-China trade tensions, quality-growth companies remain strong performers. Portfolio managers Sharat Shroff, CFA, and Inbok Song discuss the opportunity set for growth investors.

Investor sentiment is telling a mixed story about the market’s ascent since the March low; begging the question, will the skeptics converge with the optimists?

The way we work, take care of our health, and consume and connect is dramatically changing. Companies on the forefront of these transformations may represent compelling investment opportunities. Are you poised to capture them?

Introducing ANEW—ProShares MSCI Transformational Changes ETF. ANEW invests in companies which may benefit from four key Transformational Changes—changes accelerated by COVID-19.

Join this exclusive webcast to get a first look at ANEW and the Transformational Changes: Future of Work, Genomics & Telehealth, Digital Consumer, and Food Revolution.

Join the ProShares Investment Strategy team to:

• Review the impact of the pandemic on the economy so far
• Explore the evolutions—and revolutions—driving growth across four Transformational Changes
• Learn how thematic ETFs can fit into yours or your clients’ portfolios

This webcast is eligible for Continuing Education (CE) Credit.

David Dreman’s book, Contrarian Investment Strategies, was gospel to investors when it was first published in 1979. Investors had been decimated by markets going nowhere over the prior 10 years. Stock investors were ready for something new. Dreman had produced a lot of success as an investor and wanted to share his gospel of contrarian value investing.

We have a light economic calendar with a focus on housing. There are continuing political and pandemic stories that could dominate the news cycle at any time. For those focused on financial markets, earnings season might provide answers to important questions.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks will eventually discover that breaking up isn’t easy after partnering with their governments and the financial markets to avert a pandemic-driven depression.

The OPEC+ alliance warned of a “precarious” outlook as a resurgent coronavirus pandemic hurts oil demand, dropping further hints about a potential change of policy next month.

Here in the U.S., I estimate that the actual number of people infected by SARS-CoV-2 to-date is currently just over four times the number of reported cases. Actual cases are undercounted partly because, based on very large-scale, unbiased testing, roughly 45% of people who acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection are asymptomatic.

Key Takeaways

• Not all industries ‘reaping the benefits’ of the recovery
• 3Q20 earnings season may ‘plant the seeds’ for 2021
• ‘Don’t bet the farm’ on yields moving substantially higher

By now, it should be clear that COVID-19 is not going to go away anytime soon. Consumers and businesses are getting used to living and working under the pandemic and some changes, such as the tendency to work from home, will likely be long-lasting. The economy is always evolving. However, rapid changes can be destabilizing. There will be a number of challenges in the new year.

Even if this US election has a bigger impact on markets than in the past, we would advise against building an investing strategy based on a potential political outcome for several reasons.

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out.

The latest index came in at 13, up 2 from last month's 11, which indicates expansion in October. The future outlook increased from 18 last month to 21 this month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

“Resilience” was this week’s theme as better-than-expected market data came to light. Earnings season has begun, and so far reports have proven the doomsayers wrong. Even industries that have been hardest hit by the economic downturn, including air travel, are expressing optimism that we’re at the “end of the beginning” in terms of recovering from the worst health crisis in 100 years.

Month-over-month nominal sales in September increased by 1.91%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 1.70%.

Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 1.9% month-over-month to one decimal and was above the Investing.com forecast of 0.7%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.5% MoM.

Euro-area countries were struggling to achieve growth and inflation even before the coronavirus pandemic. Now global lockdowns and trade disputes have compounded their problems. Still, we believe euro fixed-income markets offer active investors attractive opportunities and worthwhile income.

We recently read Peter Doran’s book, Breaking Rockefeller, which is a fabulous economic history of the world from 1840-1920 and focuses on how the monopoly created by John D. Rockefeller was broken from 1890-1910. We also watched a documentary called, “The Social Dilemma,” which explains, through the eyes of some of the social media creators, how incredibly damaging the monopolies, created by internet technology, are to society.

The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 15, down 2.2 from last month's 17.2. The 3-month moving average came in at 18.8, down from 21.0 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 56.6, up 17.8 from the previous month's 38.8.

When many fixed income investors think about the November US election, they tend to focus on how the presidential and congressional race outcomes could affect national policies. However, our municipal bond team delves into state and local government elections, too. Here, they share their analysis of how election outcomes at all three levels of government could affect muni bonds.

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 10.5 was a decrease of 6.5 from the previous month's 17.0. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 15.0.

Yesterday's release of the September Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.3% increase last month. It is at 0.4% year-over-year, up from -0.2% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 1.2% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.

Markets are facing choppier waters, but the backdrop for risk assets remains positive.

Investors should consider many angles when evaluating what active managers can offer through a global crisis and an indefinite period of uncertainty.

Our Dina Ting offers three reasons she and her team believe the case for international markets is once again strong, and opines on how recent market events have created new—or amplified existing—opportunities for investors to express views on specific countries.

Companies with a higher presence of female executives have historically rewarded their equity investors with better performance, the firm says.

Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.