Commodities

Among the biggest contributors to the bitcoin rally is the hope that 2020 could finally see institutional investors move into the digital field en masse, prompted by growing client demand and more attractive ways to get exposure.

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended January 17, 2020, at 1.84% the 2-year note ended at 1.28% and the 30-year at 2.29%.

We analyze the historical reactions of various assets to past U.S. military actions in the Middle East to provide insight into what the current U.S.-Iran tensions may mean for markets in 2020. We examine the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, U.S. dollar, and U.S. 10-year Treasuries.

Now is the season for forecasting as one decade turns into the next. Pundits and market prognosticators too often treat nowcasts as true market forecasts, which can be very dangerous for investors’ financial health. Our forecasts for the decade ahead rely on empirically driven quantitative models.

Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have once again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of oil markets.

Emerging markets ended 2019 on a high note, but can the momentum continue? Our emerging markets equity team weighs in, highlighting the market news and events it has an eye on.

Month-over-month nominal sales in December increased by 0.3% (0.33% to two decimal points). Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.1% (0.12% to two decimal points).

Franklin Equity Group’s Fred Fromm gives his take on global oil markets amid elevated tensions between the United States and Iran.

As the worries mount, it’s worth addressing whether these concerns are truly warranted, or overblown to an extent. Let’s dive right in and tackle this, as well as look at how much of a handbrake such a high level of debt may have on Chinese growth.

Every year, the markets provide us with lessons on prudent investment strategies. Many times, markets offer investors remedial courses, covering lessons it had taught in previous years. That’s why one of my favorite sayings is that there’s nothing new in investing, only investment history you don’t yet know.

One of our favorite financial writers is Bloomberg’s John Authers. He recently wrote a tongue-in-cheek article about an investment company by the name of Hindsight Capital. In hindsight, or in the company’s case, Hindsight Capital, he talked about what the firm did and what you should have done over the last ten years to produce outstanding returns.

A new decade, seismic shifts and the importance of diversification.

Read the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.

Research Affiliates provides its outlook for 2020 and discusses where it sees attractive return opportunities across the globe.

A restrained reprisal by Iran following the assassination of its top military commander has led markets to conclude that the latest threat to the global economy has been removed. But just because Iran and the United States have so far avoided a full-scale war does not mean that markets are out of the woods.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.29%, up from 2.05% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.26%, down slightly from the previous month's 2.32% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season.

What really is a bet? How does one make decisions under uncertainty and with imperfect information? In his latest memo, Howard Marks weaves his own life story to discuss the process of thinking in bets, parses the world of gambling, and draws parallels between investing and games of chance.

Foreign trade ends up being cleared through international money – a currency that the world accepts as final payment, even in places where it is not legal tender.

This is the year-end letter I sent to our clients. Feel free to adapt it for your own use.

On Tuesday of this week, the U.S. dollar experienced a “death cross,” a bearish signal that takes places when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen this from the greenback since May 2017.

The best environment would be moderate U.S. growth, a sideways U.S. market and a weaker U.S. dollar.

This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. December's 145K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 14K fewer jobs than previously reported. Annual revisions going back to 2015 were made. The Investing.com consensus was for 164K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.5%.

Tensions between Iran and the United States brings a stressful start to 2020.

Four reasons for optimism about emerging-market stocks despite their general underperformance and higher volatility over the last decade.

Always being alert and anticipating the next inflection point in the business cycle can help you actively manage your investments while taking advantage of emerging profit opportunities and more importantly protect your wealth from the inevitable cyclical declines. This exceptionally long business cycle appears set to emerge from its third growth slowdown and has now reached the stage where a cyclical bull market in commodities can be expected.

A year ago, the baseline scenario for the economy was moderate growth, but with an elevated level on uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside. Trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth were dampening factors, but Fed policy was supportive. Investors were willing to look beyond the uncertainty.

Global stock markets rallied in 2019, defying political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Will investors be as fortunate in 2020? Since many risks remain, maintaining style diversity and finding investing themes that are detached from volatility drivers will be important ingredients for equity allocations.

Trump's decision to take out the Islamic Republic's most celebrated military leader, Qassem Soleimani, was a timely reminder that we face many problems. An armed conflict between the US and Iran is clearly one of them but far from the only one. Here is a list of the ones we worry mostly about, going into 2020.

To be honest it shouldn’t matter where you stand on the climate change debate, the way I see it these are words that we should all take seriously, if for no other reason just in case. It is a call to action that we ignore at our own peril and that of untold future generations to come.

One of the exciting buzz words among advisors and institutional investors is ESG, which stands for Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance. This subject is almost always granted a wonderful panel reception at any conference our firm attends as it is the topic du jour.

Expect a steeper yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should be “defensive” with respect to long-term bonds. Gold will go up, inflation will be subdued, there is a 30% to 35% chance of recession and – his “highest conviction” idea – the dollar will weaken. His most surprising prediction was who will be the Democratic nominee.

The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 55 BPs to 1.92% as of the December 31 close.

The Ten Surprises of 2019 worked out plenty well. While we don't go through this process with the objective of getting a high score, knowing that you have been able to anticipate some of the generally unexpected events that are going to influence the financial markets during the coming year is gratifying.

It has been a great year for equity investors. The S&P 500 index posted a 31% annual return, the Dow 25%, and the NASDAQ a spectacular 39%. More than $6T of equity paper wealth was created for domestic investors this year alone.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -43.1B was higher than the Investing.com forecast of -43.8B.

Let’s walk through the first 20 years of the new millennium and the lessons for the next 20 years.

The longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP growth accelerated, to an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, while the unemployment rate now stands at the lowest level in 50 years (and is likely headed lower).

Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in absolute terms and relative to bonds in developed markets as well as under-owned and well-supported by an improving fundamental backdrop.

Brace yourselves. In an unexpected move on January 3, the United States carried out a drone strike that killed a key military figure in Iran, General Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani was the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, the architect of Iranian military influence across the Middle East and the second most powerful figure in Iran after the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.

I’m optimistic that the U.S. will stand as a beacon of freedom and opportunity in the 2020s and beyond, but with more and more younger Americans supporting socialism over capitalism, I believe it prudent to proceed with caution. That means making sure you’re holding some gold in your portfolio.

Investor optimism remained strong in the first day of trading 2020, but news that the US. Military had assassinated an Iranian general sent share prices lower. The price of oil rose and bond yields fell in response to heightened uncertainty.

The December US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.4, down 0.2 from the 52.6 final November figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for December. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 47.2, a decrease of 0.9 percent from 48.1 the previous month. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 49 percent.

What can investors expect this year? Continued economic expansion, unaltered interest rates and new equity highs, says CIO Larry Adam.

In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the Tuesday, December 31.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 48.9 in December from 46.3 in November, which is in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

With today's release of the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.4% month over month which is cut to 0.2% with inflation adjustment.

What were the top financial news stories of 2019? To answer that question, Frank looks back at his five most visited articles from the year that was.

As we wave goodbye to the bull market of the 2010s, here are the rules for investing in whatever comes in the next decade.

We’re still missing a lot of information on the fourth quarter, but recent reports paint a picture of moderate growth in the overall economy. That picture will become clearer as December data arrive next month. The economy was mixed in 2019, and should remain mixed into the first half of the year.

Naturally, this is the time when market-watchers issue their forecasts for what may lie ahead, and my team is no exception. Simply put, we expect continued monetary policy accommodation with little fiscal stimulus. Therefore, we are more optimistic about capital markets than we are about the overall economy, and we favor risk assets over non-risk assets for 2020.

The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.

The economic calendar is very light and interrupted by the mid-week holiday. We can always see volatility when volume is low, but many market participants will be on an extended holiday. This includes much of the A-team punditry, but someone will be left to fill the airtime.

The growth of personal savings and investment in China of the last few years has a parallel in the boom in the “old Northwest” of the U.S. following the War of 1812. The parallel carries a fateful lesson for the future of China.

Boris Johnson’s victory bodes well for Trump in 2020. The British PM’s Conservative party toppled the so-called “red wall,” winning seats across rural, working-class North and Midlands counties that had for decades been considered safe Labour territory.

Stock market participants remained optimistic, despite impeachment. The economic data were mixed, but consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy.

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in November rose 0.63% and is up 4.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.47%. The real number is up 2.8% year-over-year.

Argentina and Brazil have an opportunity to reverse a long string of underperformance. The challenges are considerable, but we believe signs of progress in either economy could lead to a significant rerating of their markets.

Free from a house view on economies, markets or stocks, J O Hambro Capital Management’s (JOHCM) fund managers invariably see the world in different ways. We asked a number of our managers for their thoughts on the outlook for their asset class next year, what they would like to see and the possible surprises that 2020 could bring.

While US-China trade issues still haven’t been resolved, there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for emerging markets in the coming year.

Once upon a time—of all the good days in the year, on Christmas Eve—old Ebenezer Scrooge sat busy in his counting-house. Rise from your bed, O Investor and hear first from our very own Ghosts of Investing Past, Present and Yet to Come.

While US-China trade tensions and other concerns prompt a cautionary stance when it comes to risk assets, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Ed Perks and Gene Podkaminer nonetheless remain positive about the US equity market in the year ahead, citing a number of long-term growth drivers that still remain in place.

I’ve learned my goal-oriented focus had a negative impact on my happiness. It took an artist and a lizard to show me a better way.

The economic calendar is especially important. Several housing reports, JOLTs, and the final estimate for Q3 GDP lead the list. Despite this, I suspect a powerful draw from the Gregorian calendar. It is time for those annual forecasts!

The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and indicated that the current stance of monetary policy was “appropriate” to support economic growth, a strong job market and inflation near the Fed’s 2% goal. The revised dot plot showed that 13 of 17 senior Fed officials anticipate no change in rates in 2020.

Brexit and trade talks provided lots of uncertainty this year. Last week saw progress on both fronts.

Predicting a major economic or financial event—whether that’s a recession, market downturn or even your own retirement—requires that you also take action. Otherwise your prediction was meaningless.

U.S. economic activity is expected to remain mixed in 2020, with moderate strength in consumer spending and general softness in business fixed investment and manufacturing.

A review of last month’s market-moving events across countries and asset classes.

Why should investors pay attention to the China A-share market? We explain why we believe the opening of one of the most liquid and diverse markets in the world has profound implications for global portfolios.

Did you know that more than $12 trillion in assets under management are engaged in one or more strategies of sustainable investment in the United States? This comprises more than 25 percent of the professional managed assets across the country and is a 38 percent growth from 2016 figures.

Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.

One way of thinking about the share price of a common stock is the price range as a teeter-totter. When the psychology of investors is very negative, enthusiasm for the company hits the ground. On the other end, when everyone is in love with a company’s shares, their end of the board can’t seem to get any higher. Where is the board end hitting the ground currently and who is stuck up in the air on a psychological high?