As of July 30, the 10-year note was 72 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
As of August 2, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and three cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.37 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.77. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.26, down 0.9% from last week and up 50% from the beginning of the year.
The stock market and economy are hanging by a thread over an economic abyss. That thread is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for July. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 59.5, a decrease of 1.1 from 60.6 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.9 percent.
The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 63.4, up from the final June figure and a record high. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
You may not be familiar with the term metaverse, but if you’ve been a consumer of popular books, movies and video games over the past 30 years or so, you probably are aware of the concept.
The yield curve is a powerful indicator. More powerful than many others as May West reminds us. As the greatest reopening momentum now appears behind us, today, our All-Weather portfolio looks more all-weather than it did earlier in the year.
Howard Marks doesn’t make bets on economic predictions. That’s especially true now when the biggest wildcard is inflation – a phenomenon no one fully understands. But just because something is unknowable doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. That’s why Howard has devoted his latest memo to a topic he largely disavows: macro forecasting.
Equities continued to rally in the second quarter, but the market remains undecided about whether the recent uptick in inflation is more likely to be transitory or persistent.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 73.4 in July from 66.1 in June, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.
What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
he current inflationary surge is temporary. When flexible prices, especially some of those mentioned, normalize, inflation is likely to follow suit.
The great philosopher, John Locke, brilliantly captured the way the world works.
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month which is cut to 1.5% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 16.6% YoY increase.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
It’s now official that the recession of 2020 was the shortest in history.
We have announced our Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2021.
Tweedy Browne is one of the most respected value managers in the world, with a legacy that includes having Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as clients. In this interview, members of its investment committee explain why value investing is on the cusp of a resurgence.
Recent protests offer hope that change may be right around the corner. But for now, gold and Bitcoin have helped fill the gap created by disastrously mismanaged currencies.
Two months. That’s how long the pandemic-triggered recession lasted, from February to April 2020, making it the shortest economic downturn in U.S. history, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.
What exactly is “transitory?”
Frontier markets are popular to investors that seek higher returns, and Central Asia’s Kazakhstan is regarded with particular interest.
Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, but two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.06 in June from +0.80 in May.
Long-term Treasury rates tumbled to the lowest levels in months on Monday as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant called into question optimistic assumptions about economic recovery, also touching off a global stock market slump.
The title of this comment may seem odd, given that – as I write this on July 14, 2021 – the S&P 500 is at a record high.
During the second quarter, global equity markets extended their strong performance.
Month-over-month nominal sales in June was up 0.55% and up 18%% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.35% and was up 12% YoY.
In a new paper, Taleb aims a scattergun at bitcoin and its underlying database technology, blockchain. Some of those scatter shots ding bitcoin or blockchain slightly or not at all. But some of them hit the mark squarely.
Commodities rallied 21% in the first half of 2021, making them the top performing asset group ahead of U.S., European, emerging market and non-Japan Asian stocks. The broad-based index of energy, agriculture, industrial metals and precious metals rose the same amount as high-flying Bitcoin, which pulled back after hitting its all-time high of more than $63,000 on April 13.
Have energy stocks run out of gas?
Heading into the second half of the year, pandemic concerns are not completely in the rear-view mirror.
Within my latest piece discussing the merits of deflation, I briefly touched on how several leading economic indicators appear to be signally growth may have peaked for the time being.
The global economy is in a mid-cycle expansion, following peaks in policy support and growth, and what is likely a transitory spike in inflation. We expect global growth to moderate to a still above-trend pace in 2022.
Global issuance of bonds for environmental, social and governance goals look set to hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. That’s more than double what was sold in all of 2020 as more borrowers are pushed to sell ethical debt by investors.
As the global economy continued to reopen and the recovery gained speed, markets reached new highs.
Be forewarned – we are going to empty the quote bin this quarter.
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February.
This is the story of how Chicago evolved from a wilderness outpost of 350 residents in 1833 to the global capital of derivatives trading.
New research has uncovered a paradox. Energy firms have been, by far, the most prolific producers of “green” innovations and patents. But those are the stocks that are routinely shunned by ESG investors. Are ESG investors’ goals aligned with their dollars?
Correction fears are overdone – amidst all the chatter about stocks being expensive and due for a correction, Brent’s team dissected price data going back to 1950 and found that corrections and bear markets are rarer than commonly perceived.
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February. The highly transmissible Delta variant was also ruled the most dominant strain of coronavirus in the U.S., threatening economic growth and raising uncertainty about the next interest rate hike.
Investors are backtracking on reflation bets, with the bond rally extending as central banks signal continued support and stocks falling as Covid-19 variants threatened reopening prospects.
Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover explores blockchain and digital assets through an equity-investor lens with Anthony Hardy and Christophe Vande Walle.
Known globally for its charm bracelets, Pandora is the world’s largest jewelry brand.
The pristine surface of a lake on a perfectly calm and sunny day is easy on the eyes. Yet it usually offers no insight as to what lies beneath.
With so much focus being placed on the inflation versus deflation debate of late and many financial pundits declaring a new inflation paradigm is upon us, what better a time to argue the case for deflation.
One of the world’s most exclusive clubs just got a new member, with a second aspirant knocking on the door.
For international investors, we believe the United Kingdom is home to many companies that offer an especially attractive combination of growth, value and quality.
With respect to managing portfolios in an inflationary environment, we have taken great care to emphasize companies that we believe have pricing power due to the mission-critical or value-add nature of their products and services.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the June 30 close.
The ever-important payroll report came in ahead of expectations for June, but will ultimately do little to sway policy in toward the hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve Board.
We’ve had serious inflation, but don’t know it because the barometer we use to measure it ignores security price inflation.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 2, 2021, at 1.44%, the 2-year note ended at 0.24%, and the 30-year at 2.05%.
There may be many reasons why people spread misinformation about Bitcoin. Much of the misinformation may originate from Ripple, which is currently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fintech firm is believed to employ a great number of bots on Twitter and other social media platforms with the intent of tearing Bitcoin down in favor of its own XRP coin.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. June's 850K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 15K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 700K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%.
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says controlling inflation expectations is key to achieving the central bank’s twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -71.2B was better than the -71.4B Investing.com forecast.
Legendary global investor John Templeton once said that the best time to buy was when there was “maximum pessimism,” and the best time to sell was when there was “maximum optimism.”
Here is how I am positioning my firm’s portfolio for the risk – the possibility, not the certainty – of long-term inflation.
Summer is a good time to sit down and reflect on what you would like to see happen in the fall and 2022.
Wall Street is once again in the midst of a “money heist” from naive investors.
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains last week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
We buy stocks with a mind toward dividend sustainability and a history of payment hikes. This contrasts with normal bias toward dividend shopping, where one would simply buy the highest-yielding companies as though nothing else mattered.
Brexit is as complicated as we expected, but restaurants are reviving and aircraft tariffs are suspended.
To understand the process by which physical coins became accepted tender in the 19th century, one should start with the wisdom of Yogi Berra and Niels Bohr.
If we could travel back in time to the beginning of 2020, many of us would be surprised at how good things were.
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility.
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains this week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
This year’s SIC closing day was a blockbuster. In this letter, I’ll wrap up my conference reviews by wrapping that day for you.
Don’t ask for my advice on which number to put your chips on when you play roulette in Vegas; cryptocurrencies fall into the same category.
US inflation continued to soar in May, with the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.7% month over month and 3.8% year over year—its highest annual rate in more than 25 years.
Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani unveiled an ambitious push into clean energy involving 750 billion rupees ($10.1 billion) of investment over three years, marking a new pivot for one of the world’s biggest fossil-fuel billionaires.
You’ve probably gotten several client questions over the past few years about using their portfolio to invest in bitcoin. I’m here to tell you why they shouldn’t do that.
The Fed meeting last week led to higher asset price volatility across asset classes.
Over the past few months, economic recoveries have been uneven across regions and sectors.
Gold is one of the rarest elements in the world, making up between 0.001 and 0.006 parts per million of the earth’s crust.
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through May 2021 (click to view online or see chart below).
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Through the first half of 2021, fixed-income investors have been faced with their greatest fear: inflation.
The inflation scare that’s become a major theme in markets is getting fresh momentum from the climate-change battle and the huge economic transformation underway.
It is possible that good data could be interpreted as bad news for the U.S. stock market at least in the near-term as strong economic data, especially on jobs, could prompt the Fed to unwind earlier.
Managed futures strategies have historically delivered attractive returns over the long run with low equity correlations.
The Fed is talking about tapering its asset purchases.
Commodities
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of July 30, the 10-year note was 72 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Weekly Gasoline Prices: WTIC Up 50% Since Early Jan
As of August 2, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and three cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.37 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.77. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.26, down 0.9% from last week and up 50% from the beginning of the year.
Hanging by a ZIRP Thread
The stock market and economy are hanging by a thread over an economic abyss. That thread is zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
July ISM Manufacturing Index: Demand Expanded, Consumption Improved
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for July. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 59.5, a decrease of 1.1 from 60.6 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.9 percent.
July Markit Manufacturing: Record High, Also Record Supply Delays and Price Pressures
The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 63.4, up from the final June figure and a record high. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
The Metaverse: What Every Early-Stage Investor Needs to Know
You may not be familiar with the term metaverse, but if you’ve been a consumer of popular books, movies and video games over the past 30 years or so, you probably are aware of the concept.
End of the Recovery and Reflation Trade?
The yield curve is a powerful indicator. More powerful than many others as May West reminds us. As the greatest reopening momentum now appears behind us, today, our All-Weather portfolio looks more all-weather than it did earlier in the year.
Thinking About Macro
Howard Marks doesn’t make bets on economic predictions. That’s especially true now when the biggest wildcard is inflation – a phenomenon no one fully understands. But just because something is unknowable doesn’t mean it’s unimportant. That’s why Howard has devoted his latest memo to a topic he largely disavows: macro forecasting.
A Market in Flux Equity Investment Outlook Third Quarter
Equities continued to rally in the second quarter, but the market remains undecided about whether the recent uptick in inflation is more likely to be transitory or persistent.
Chicago PMI Jumped in July
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 73.4 in July from 66.1 in June, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in June
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.
Measuring EM Stocks’ Undervaluation
What is the degree of Emerging Markets (EM) stocks’ undervaluation relative to United States (US) equities?
Transitory, or Not Transitory? That is the Question. Total Return Outlook Third Quarter
Despite a strengthening economy in the second quarter, investors were highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent spike in inflation data.
The "Real" Goods on the June Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
Just How Transitory Is Inflation?
he current inflationary surge is temporary. When flexible prices, especially some of those mentioned, normalize, inflation is likely to follow suit.
The Law of Fashion
The great philosopher, John Locke, brilliantly captured the way the world works.
May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 16.6% YoY, Continues Record Highs
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month which is cut to 1.5% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 16.6% YoY increase.
Weekly Market Snapshot
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
Shortest Recession In History Sets Up Next Recession
It’s now official that the recession of 2020 was the shortest in history.
Venerated Voices™ Q2 2021 Rankings
We have announced our Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2021.
Tweedy Browne: We Are in the Early Stage of Value’s Resurgence
Tweedy Browne is one of the most respected value managers in the world, with a legacy that includes having Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett as clients. In this interview, members of its investment committee explain why value investing is on the cusp of a resurgence.
Cuba and Venezuela Offer Cautionary Tales of Socialism
Recent protests offer hope that change may be right around the corner. But for now, gold and Bitcoin have helped fill the gap created by disastrously mismanaged currencies.
Investors' Risk Appetite Is at an All-Time High. That Could Be a Problem
Two months. That’s how long the pandemic-triggered recession lasted, from February to April 2020, making it the shortest economic downturn in U.S. history, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.
How Transitory Is Transitory?
What exactly is “transitory?”
Kazakhstan: A Developing Frontier Market with a Western-friendly Attitude
Frontier markets are popular to investors that seek higher returns, and Central Asia’s Kazakhstan is regarded with particular interest.
On My Mind: Just a Flesh Wound?
Prices continue to climb, with the US CPI rising in June by the most since 2008.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth moderated in June"
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, but two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.06 in June from +0.80 in May.
Yield Plunge Stirs Thoughts of 1% Treasuries on Delta Variant
Long-term Treasury rates tumbled to the lowest levels in months on Monday as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant called into question optimistic assumptions about economic recovery, also touching off a global stock market slump.
What Triggered the Crash?
The title of this comment may seem odd, given that – as I write this on July 14, 2021 – the S&P 500 is at a record high.
3Q 2021 OUTLOOK
During the second quarter, global equity markets extended their strong performance.
The Big Four: May Real Retail Sales Up 0.6%
Month-over-month nominal sales in June was up 0.55% and up 18%% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.35% and was up 12% YoY.
Why Nassim Taleb Says Bitcoin is Worthless
In a new paper, Taleb aims a scattergun at bitcoin and its underlying database technology, blockchain. Some of those scatter shots ding bitcoin or blockchain slightly or not at all. But some of them hit the mark squarely.
Commodities Were the Top Performers in 1H 2021: Halftime Report
Commodities rallied 21% in the first half of 2021, making them the top performing asset group ahead of U.S., European, emerging market and non-Japan Asian stocks. The broad-based index of energy, agriculture, industrial metals and precious metals rose the same amount as high-flying Bitcoin, which pulled back after hitting its all-time high of more than $63,000 on April 13.
Energy Stocks Have Run Out Of Gas
Have energy stocks run out of gas?
K2 Advisors Third Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
Heading into the second half of the year, pandemic concerns are not completely in the rear-view mirror.
The Stock Market Is At An Important Inflection Point
Within my latest piece discussing the merits of deflation, I briefly touched on how several leading economic indicators appear to be signally growth may have peaked for the time being.
Mid‑Cycle Investing: Time to Get Selective
The global economy is in a mid-cycle expansion, following peaks in policy support and growth, and what is likely a transitory spike in inflation. We expect global growth to moderate to a still above-trend pace in 2022.
ESG Bond Sales Sprint to $1 Trillion as Investors Force Change
Global issuance of bonds for environmental, social and governance goals look set to hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. That’s more than double what was sold in all of 2020 as more borrowers are pushed to sell ethical debt by investors.
Returning to Normal?
As the global economy continued to reopen and the recovery gained speed, markets reached new highs.
Don’t Get Rugged
Be forewarned – we are going to empty the quote bin this quarter.
Gold Is Catching a Bid on Pandemic and Inflation Fears. Are You Participating?
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February.
The Second City: First in Derivatives
This is the story of how Chicago evolved from a wilderness outpost of 350 residents in 1833 to the global capital of derivatives trading.
The Great ESG Paradox
New research has uncovered a paradox. Energy firms have been, by far, the most prolific producers of “green” innovations and patents. But those are the stocks that are routinely shunned by ESG investors. Are ESG investors’ goals aligned with their dollars?
Labor Market, Productivity Gains Can Fuel Expansion for Some Time
Correction fears are overdone – amidst all the chatter about stocks being expensive and due for a correction, Brent’s team dissected price data going back to 1950 and found that corrections and bear markets are rarer than commonly perceived.
Gold Is Catching a Bid on Pandemic and Inflation Fears. Are You Participating?
Gold notched its third straight week of higher prices as the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped below 1.3% for the first time since February. The highly transmissible Delta variant was also ruled the most dominant strain of coronavirus in the U.S., threatening economic growth and raising uncertainty about the next interest rate hike.
Bonds Lead Rethink on Reflation as Central Banks Signal Support
Investors are backtracking on reflation bets, with the bond rally extending as central banks signal continued support and stocks falling as Covid-19 variants threatened reopening prospects.
Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, and Digital Assets: Love ‘em, Hate ‘em, but Don’t Ignore ‘em
Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover explores blockchain and digital assets through an equity-investor lens with Anthony Hardy and Christophe Vande Walle.
Spotlight Pandora: Charming the World with Jewelry Innovations
Known globally for its charm bracelets, Pandora is the world’s largest jewelry brand.
Deep Questions Rarely Have Surface-Level Answers
The pristine surface of a lake on a perfectly calm and sunny day is easy on the eyes. Yet it usually offers no insight as to what lies beneath.
The Case For Deflation
With so much focus being placed on the inflation versus deflation debate of late and many financial pundits declaring a new inflation paradigm is upon us, what better a time to argue the case for deflation.
Steve Ballmer Becomes Ninth Member of the $100 Billion Club
One of the world’s most exclusive clubs just got a new member, with a second aspirant knocking on the door.
Markets Generally Favored the Wasatch Approach During the Second Quarter
For international investors, we believe the United Kingdom is home to many companies that offer an especially attractive combination of growth, value and quality.
International and Global Markets Commentary & Investment Outlook
With respect to managing portfolios in an inflationary environment, we have taken great care to emphasize companies that we believe have pricing power due to the mission-critical or value-add nature of their products and services.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the June 30 close.
Payroll Report Gives Little Ammo to Fed Hawks
The ever-important payroll report came in ahead of expectations for June, but will ultimately do little to sway policy in toward the hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve Board.
Inflation is Looming and Hiding in Plain View
We’ve had serious inflation, but don’t know it because the barometer we use to measure it ignores security price inflation.
Treasury Snapshot: 10-Year Note at 1.44%
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 2, 2021, at 1.44%, the 2-year note ended at 0.24%, and the 30-year at 2.05%.
Bitcoin Mining Uses a Higher Mix of Sustainable Energy Than Any Major Country or Industry
There may be many reasons why people spread misinformation about Bitcoin. Much of the misinformation may originate from Ripple, which is currently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fintech firm is believed to employ a great number of bots on Twitter and other social media platforms with the intent of tearing Bitcoin down in favor of its own XRP coin.
The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. June's 850K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 15K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 700K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.7%.
Investing Is Not a Trivial Pursuit
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
Averting Inflation Crisis Turns on Something Fed Doesn’t Control
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says controlling inflation expectations is key to achieving the central bank’s twin goals of price stability and maximum employment.
May Trade Deficit at $71.2B
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -71.2B was better than the -71.4B Investing.com forecast.
Gold Is the Ultimate Contrarian Investment Right Now
Legendary global investor John Templeton once said that the best time to buy was when there was “maximum pessimism,” and the best time to sell was when there was “maximum optimism.”
How I Invest For Inflation
Here is how I am positioning my firm’s portfolio for the risk – the possibility, not the certainty – of long-term inflation.
Summertime Is Here and “Normal” Is Coming Back!
Summer is a good time to sit down and reflect on what you would like to see happen in the fall and 2022.
ESG Investing – The Great Wall Street Money Heist
Wall Street is once again in the midst of a “money heist” from naive investors.
Weekly Market Snapshot
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
China's Crackdown on Bitcoin Mining Is Good News for North American Crypto Miners
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains last week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
Don’t Overvalue Dividends
We buy stocks with a mind toward dividend sustainability and a history of payment hikes. This contrasts with normal bias toward dividend shopping, where one would simply buy the highest-yielding companies as though nothing else mattered.
Economic Commentary: Brexit, Restaurants, Boeing and Airbus
Brexit is as complicated as we expected, but restaurants are reviving and aircraft tariffs are suspended.
Experts Play with the Forms of Money
To understand the process by which physical coins became accepted tender in the 19th century, one should start with the wisdom of Yogi Berra and Niels Bohr.
Midyear Outlook 2021: The Long and Winding Road Back to Normal
If we could travel back in time to the beginning of 2020, many of us would be surprised at how good things were.
Technically Speaking: COT Report Shows Stage Set For Volatility
A couple of weeks ago, in “Warning Signs A Correction Is Ahead,” we said quite a few indicators set the stage for a pick-up in volatility.
China's Crackdown on Bitcoin Mining Is Good News for North American Crypto Miners
Bitcoin erased its 2021 gains this week as China ramped up its crackdown on mining of the cryptocurrency, a move that’s expected to help shift the industry’s center of gravity from Asia to North America.
Long Humanity
This year’s SIC closing day was a blockbuster. In this letter, I’ll wrap up my conference reviews by wrapping that day for you.
A Curmudgeon on Cryptocurrency
Don’t ask for my advice on which number to put your chips on when you play roulette in Vegas; cryptocurrencies fall into the same category.
This Too Shall Pass: The Micro Case for Transitory Inflation
US inflation continued to soar in May, with the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.7% month over month and 3.8% year over year—its highest annual rate in more than 25 years.
Asia’s Richest Man Plans $10 Billion Push Into Green Energy
Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani unveiled an ambitious push into clean energy involving 750 billion rupees ($10.1 billion) of investment over three years, marking a new pivot for one of the world’s biggest fossil-fuel billionaires.
Don’t Let Your Clients Buy Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency)
You’ve probably gotten several client questions over the past few years about using their portfolio to invest in bitcoin. I’m here to tell you why they shouldn’t do that.
Opportunities In Local Currency Assets After The Sharp Dollar Move
The Fed meeting last week led to higher asset price volatility across asset classes.
Inflation Inflection
Over the past few months, economic recoveries have been uneven across regions and sectors.
UPDATED: Top 10 Gold Producing Countries
Gold is one of the rarest elements in the world, making up between 0.001 and 0.006 parts per million of the earth’s crust.
GMO 7-year Asset Class Forecast: May 2021
The GMO Asset Allocation Team has released its latest 7-Year Asset Class Forecasts through May 2021 (click to view online or see chart below).
Weekly Economic Commentary
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
The Great Transitory Debate. Breaking Down The Latest Inflation Numbers.
Through the first half of 2021, fixed-income investors have been faced with their greatest fear: inflation.
The Climate-Change Fight Is Adding to the Global Inflation Scare
The inflation scare that’s become a major theme in markets is getting fresh momentum from the climate-change battle and the huge economic transformation underway.
Is Good Data Now Bad News?
It is possible that good data could be interpreted as bad news for the U.S. stock market at least in the near-term as strong economic data, especially on jobs, could prompt the Fed to unwind earlier.
PIMCO Trends: Managed Futures: Seeking Diversification and Returns
Managed futures strategies have historically delivered attractive returns over the long run with low equity correlations.
The Fed's Next Steps
The Fed is talking about tapering its asset purchases.