Commodities

The energy sector is beginning to adapt to the realities of climate change. Who is best positioned for the future?

We think this is an excellent time to ponder the thoughts of Buffett and Munger.

The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher.

What a week for price data! We have been writing about the possibility of higher inflation for months now, most recently here. We have also highlighted the most likely assets to benefit from higher inflation like copper, oil and energy stocks.

Weighing the costs of global vaccine access, minimum wage and the energy rally.

Many investors think there are only two options in a market where participants have become overly exuberant, either 'I want in' or 'Get me out.' Our strategies are more nuanced, and we believe fit better with what we expect to transpire.

Millions of Texans were without power this week when the state was hit with a record setting winter storm. An overhaul of its aging infrastructure would require massive amounts of metals and other materials, which would be positive for miners and producers.

Ever since the stock market bottomed in 2009 during the financial crisis, people have been coming up with reasons why the bull market was about to end. We heard every reason – Brexit, the end of Quantitative Easing, too much debt, COVID, etc. – and while we understood each may be a cause for consternation, we focused on valuations, which suggested the bull market would continue. Over time, math wins.

The Emerging Markets (EM) asset class is often labelled a commodity play for investment purposes. The argument is simple and directional; EM countries export commodities, so rising commodity prices are good for the asset class, whereas falling commodity prices hurt EM countries.

Our Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover believes cryptocurrency (crypto) is evolving into its next cycle of innovation. As an integral foundation for an alternative financial and internet ecosystem, crypto’s disruptions, opportunities, risks, and long-term implications are worth watching.

Happy Year of the Ox! Today China and a number of other Asian countries celebrate the Lunar New Year, also known as the Spring Festival.

Rob Arnott: “There hasn’t been a better time to be a value investor at any other time in my career. I look back at the tech bubble and I never thought I would see valuations stretched the way they were then. We're back to that, and then some." We invite you to revisit “Reports of Value’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated” now published in the Financial Analysts Journal.

Stephen Dover, our Chief Market Strategist and Head of Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, shares four investment themes he’s thinking about as the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tesla announced in a public filing Monday that it bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as part of a corporate policy that allows the electric vehicle (EV) maker to invest in “alternative reserve assets,” including not just cryptocurrencies but also gold bullion and gold ETFs.

Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai shares her investment views and strategies for the post-pandemic recovery. She explains why inflation looks likely to gain steam, and how the balance of fundamentals and valuations become especially crucial today when looking for attractive returns in fixed income.

Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.

Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. We know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an "inflation-complacency" that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.

It’s hoped that an extra $1,400 in the pockets of everyday Americans may help support lagging U.S. consumption. We believe the stimulus, along with improved vaccine roll out, may also help support commercial air travel.

With the previous week’s short-squeeze headlines behind us, investors remained optimistic about a fiscal support package, which passed the Senate by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie.

The 4th quarter of 2020 began with tremendous anxiety and divisiveness around the Presidential election. Investment markets reflected that anxiety.

We’ll touch on several bases today. We start with the latest news from the Commerce Department which just released its initial estimate of 4Q economic growth (or lack thereof). 2020 goes down as the worst economic year since the end of World War II.

Massive growth in central bank balance sheets via quantitative easing, debt monetization, and firing of “big bazooka” stimulus packages brings renewed focus to potential shocks in the business cycle. An awareness of the macroeconomic “shocks” and their impact on asset prices should be incorporated in investors’ tactical asset-allocation decisions.

When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.

February begins with a stack of important economic scorecards. Among them are the last of the fourth-quarter corporate earnings reports, last week’s assessment of the 2020 gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment figures, consumer spending, as well as all the other regular reports that give us a snapshot of our recent economic history.

Emerging markets seek a sustainable solution to debts, and the Fed takes a step toward sustainability.

In a year that offered a pandemic and an election as reasons for investors to bail on risky assets, 2020 turned out to be a great year for those that stayed the course. A 60/40 portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds increased by a double-digit percentage, exceeding expectations.

Those of you with kids and grandkids may at some point have stepped inside a GameStop. If so, you might be familiar with the video game retailer’s tagline: “Power to the players.”

I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to have a growing economy and dependable money that holds its value.

Senior Credit Research Analyst Ryan McGrail explains why he believes President Biden's early orders will have a limited near-term impact on oil producers and production.

Precious metals in general did very well in 2020, and I expect them to keep pace in 2021, supported by heightened efforts in the U.S. and elsewhere to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

As a review of the year that was, today’s report analyzes and dissects the nature of the K-shaped recovery in both the economy and stock market.

As China begins the year of the Ox, many investors are wondering whether another bull run is possible in 2021. Given that last year’s rally was extremely narrow, we believe many parts of the market still offer pent-up recovery potential.

Faster vaccination and bigger stimulus can pave the way to a better year, and agriculture subsidies upset trade relationships.

In the years since the end of the gold standard, there’s been a significant lack of discipline in government spending. Today, the federal debt is closing in on an astronomical $28 trillion, which is more than 130% of the size of the U.S. economy.

What goes up must come down... but does what goes down have to come up? According to the laws of gravity, no. As for commodity markets, however, history tells us it is true.

The newly inaugurated President and Vice President of the United States are proposing much that will have significance for advisors interested in ESG and impact investing.

Despite some news reports that suggest the green ambitions of the US Democratic Party could spell doom and gloom for traditional oil and gas companies.

Several pundits have raised the possibility that the current Covid-recession will be followed by a boom reminiscent of the Roaring '20s. Although we think that may be a tad too optimistic, we think the recovery will continue and feel “real economy” stocks could fare particularly well.

Our outlook for 2021 is formed by the need to get away from the crowd and to expect some very stormy weather in the U.S. stock market. We are not afraid of drowning. Therefore, we will review the circumstances at the bottom of the market in 2009 with today’s market to see where the crowd is and where we need to go to avoid the coming storm.

The speculative “V” is one of the most interesting and challenging features of the market cycle. For passive investors, it can be a period of exhilaration followed by panic.

The new year kicked off with a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, despite unprecedented political turmoil and signs that the economic recovery is slowing.

Judging by recent phone calls and email queries, inflation is a serious concern among investors this year.

Founding Father Benjamin Franklin said it best: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” In this light, what are we to make of Trump’s social media suspension?

For stock market participants, weak economic data has often been taken as a positive, since that implies more fiscal stimulus. However, investors have grown more concerned about possible stumbling blocks. Democratic majorities in the House and Senate are very narrow, some lawmakers are worried about running up the debt, and the window for bipartisan agreement may be short.