The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
Markets are vulnerable to “significant declines” should risk appetites falter, the Federal Reserve has warned. At the moment, there are very few signs of that happening.
The performance of a market-cap-weighted index is driven by a handful of stocks with the largest capitalizations, but these stocks do not remain at the top for long. A smart beta multi-factor strategy is a good solution for investors concerned about the concentration risk of a passive market-cap tracker.
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
As of May 10, the price of Regular and Premium was up seven cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.09 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.62. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 64.92, up 0.7% from last week.
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
Advisors aren’t half as boring as their firm names convey. Read this article, and rename your firm using the process described.
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 266K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 78K fewer jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 978K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.
The highest-flying tech names are getting no help from one of the sector’s usual lifelines amid a fierce selloff that’s showing few signs of slowing.
The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
While gold is valued for a variety of reasons, the uncertainty and economic fallout tied to the COVID-19 pandemic saw investment drive the price of the yellow metal to record highs in 2020.
It was ever so tempting to devote today’s letter to a discussion of President Biden’s latest massive government spending, which he proposed Wednesday night in his “First Hundred Days” speech before Congress.
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
Overflowing cargo ships, snarled production lines, copper above $10,000 and a start to earnings season that’s smashing records.
Investors are piling back into some of the fringe corners of the cryptocurrency world, with the frenzy sending Dogecoin surging more than 50% again and crashing Robinhood’s trading app.
The Fed is under the misconception that it controls events, according to James Grant. It is overconfident in its belief it can accurately calibrate and attain a 2% inflation target.
As of April 30, the 10-year note was 113 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.
There’s an old bit of advice that one shouldn’t count one’s chickens before they’re hatched.
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -74.45B was at the Investing.com forecast.
What do financial folly and religious frenzy have in common?
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for April. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 60.7, a decrease of 4.0 from 64.7 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 65.0 percent.
The April US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 60.5, up 1.4 from the 59.1 final March figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
With everything up, where are the value buying opportunities?
In 2017, Bitcoin entered mainstream conversation even though it had been around since 2009.
Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 11 consecutive years.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 72.1 in April from 66.. in March, which is in expansion territory and its highest since 1983. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in March rose 1.44% and is up 3.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.92%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year.
The reflation trade continued in earnest during the first quarter of 2021. Commodities were up another 13.3% from January to March, following a 14.7% move in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In recent months, two investment themes have been rewarding investors with outperformance: defense sector companies and those participating in share buybacks.
Much has changed since the oil-market collapse in the early pandemic days of 2020, when prices actually turned negative. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Research Analyst/Portfolio Manager Bryant Dieffenbacher looks back at industry developments since then, and outlines opportunities he sees in the high-yield energy bond market today.
As the global recovery kicks into gear, there are signs of shortages and delays causing pricing pressure. It appears that aggregate demand may be rebounding faster than aggregate supply.
A powerful economic restart is underway in the U.S. – with Europe and emerging markets (EMs) set to follow.
Although we remain constructive about the economic outlook, the recent increase in speculative activity gives us some pause. We continue to favor a cautious approach in the near-to-medium term.
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
Some major changes could be coming soon to a central bank near you, with an estimated 90% of them at some stage of developing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
With today's release of the February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.2% increase month over month which is cut to 0.9% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw an 11.9% YoY increase.
Investors betting against green trades are going up against the world’s most powerful governments.
More than 60 central banks right now are believed to be exploring the idea of digital currencies, including retail tokens that would be used by citizens as well as wholesale applications for financial institutions.
I think we will probably have a few months of significantly higher inflation. It will fade but meanwhile hurt certain people and industries. It will be like one of those extremes causing bruised knees and volatile markets.
Last week the Labor Department released its Consumer Price Index for March, and it was the highest monthly reading in more than eight years.
Infrastructure is the backbone of any healthy economy, and America’s is in desperate need of refurbishment and investment.
Led by improvements in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +1.71 in March from –1.20 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in March, and all four categories improved from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.54 in March from +0.07 in February.
There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly.
Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.
John Vail of Nikko Asset Management dives into the findings from Nikko’s latest Global Investment Committee meeting.
How do we preserve and grow our client's wealth at inflation-adjusted rates, consistent with long-term returns of the requisite asset class, and to do so without taking undue risk of a permanent loss of capital?
Digital currencies stormed Wall Street in a big way this week. Crypto exchange Coinbase went public in a direct listing, opening the floodgates for a number of other crypto-related companies.
Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe there’s time to venture out and see what treasure was hidden beneath the waves... or maybe not. Prudence would suggest that we go searching for treasure on higher ground.
On April 21 the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet to discuss monetary policy.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
Even before the war is over, the winning side needs to consider how to “win the peace” which will follow.
Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 9.8%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 9.2%.
There are a few different ways to measure the size of a shipping fleet.
Lost in the debate over whether today's ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies will trigger painful inflation is the broader risk posed by potential negative supply shocks.
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
After a long period of disinflation and trending markets, emerging signs of inflation threaten to upend a lot of investment playbooks.
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the March 31 close.
Slow or stale growth always boils down to the same three reasons…
Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.
Millions of Americans, it seems, felt that the time was right to trade in their clunkers for a new set of wheels.
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
It isn’t hard these days to find investors trumpeting the demise of the decades-long bull run in Treasuries.
Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
From 1949 through 1964, the S&P 500 enjoyed an average annual total return of 16.4%. In the 8 years that followed, through 1972, the total return of the index averaged a substantially lower 7.6% annually; strikingly close to the 7.5% projection that Graham had suggested based on prevailing valuations, yet still providing what Graham had suggested would likely “carry a fair degree of protection” against inflation, which averaged 3.9% over that period.
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Yes, the housing market is a bit overheated, but for reasons that make far more sense than the rationalizations of stock market bulls. Some buyers are certainly overpaying and may regret it. Nonetheless, I don’t foresee another 2008-style housing crash in the near future, nor anything like the subprime crisis. There are altogether different fundamentals working here.
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
Well, let’s just say things are different in 2021.
A boost in pizza prices in the U.S. may be on the horizon, if weather and planting estimates are any indication.
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Within the growth-vs.-value context, we’d like to discuss three Covid-related scenarios for companies.
Dumb and Dumber was a 1994 movie which tells the story of Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) and Harry Dunne (Jeff Daniels)
We have all endured the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year now.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
Recently, a piece of collage art entitled “Everydays: The First 5000 Days,” by an artist known as Beeple, sold at a Christie’s auction for $69 million.
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
Within days of each other in March two Northeast Ohio legends passed away: Michael Stanley and Joe Tait.
My generation, millennials (those born from 1980 to 2000), have been noted for much of the last 10 years to be a risk averse group.
Perfectionism sounds great but it can be the gateway to disaster.
If there’s one key takeaway for financial markets after a year of pandemic, it’s that officials now seem predisposed to throwing huge amounts of money at protecting their economies.
Gold producers had their most profitable year ever in 2020, based on one metric.
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Our economy is recovering; the stock market is booming. Yet I'm hearing investors express much more fear now than they did last March when the stock market was falling off a cliff. I see a couple of reasons for this.
Commodities
Bill Ackman’s SPAC is “Deeply Engaged” in a Transaction
The world’s largest SPAC – Pershing Square’s “tontine” – is “deeply engaged” in a transaction that could close in the next few weeks, according to Bill Ackman.
Reflation, Inflation, Deflation: Stocks Can Live With Everything
Markets are vulnerable to “significant declines” should risk appetites falter, the Federal Reserve has warned. At the moment, there are very few signs of that happening.
The Fall of the Titans!
The performance of a market-cap-weighted index is driven by a handful of stocks with the largest capitalizations, but these stocks do not remain at the top for long. A smart beta multi-factor strategy is a good solution for investors concerned about the concentration risk of a passive market-cap tracker.
Fed's Patience Tested, Slow Labor Markets, India's COVID Crisis
Labor markets are changing course. When will the Fed do the same? India's second wave will disrupt activity elsewhere.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Up 7 Cents
As of May 10, the price of Regular and Premium was up seven cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.09 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.62. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 64.92, up 0.7% from last week.
The Recovery will be Positive for Commodities
It is a particularly good time to invest in the commodities markets.
How to Name Your Firm (Without Using Cliches)
Advisors aren’t half as boring as their firm names convey. Read this article, and rename your firm using the process described.
No Country Has Ever Taxed Itself into Prosperity
One of my all-time favorite quotes comes from Winston Churchill, who was just as witty as he was a great leader: “We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.”
The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Employment
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 266K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 78K fewer jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 978K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.
Ark Slammed Again as Riskiest Tech Bets Blow Past Lifelines
The highest-flying tech names are getting no help from one of the sector’s usual lifelines amid a fierce selloff that’s showing few signs of slowing.
David Rosenberg – The Consensus is Wrong about Stocks, Bonds and Inflation
The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
Reasons We Remain Bullish on Gold
While gold is valued for a variety of reasons, the uncertainty and economic fallout tied to the COVID-19 pandemic saw investment drive the price of the yellow metal to record highs in 2020.
When Will Powell’s Fed Have To Blink On Policy?
It was ever so tempting to devote today’s letter to a discussion of President Biden’s latest massive government spending, which he proposed Wednesday night in his “First Hundred Days” speech before Congress.
Rising Inflation: What It Means for TIPS and Other Investments
Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.
Inflation Haunts Stock Traders in Blockbuster Earnings Season
Overflowing cargo ships, snarled production lines, copper above $10,000 and a start to earnings season that’s smashing records.
Crypto Mania Sends Doge Soaring, Crashes Robinhood Token Trading
Investors are piling back into some of the fringe corners of the cryptocurrency world, with the frenzy sending Dogecoin surging more than 50% again and crashing Robinhood’s trading app.
Jim Grant: The Fed Cannot Control Inflation
The Fed is under the misconception that it controls events, according to James Grant. It is overconfident in its belief it can accurately calibrate and attain a 2% inflation target.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of April 30, the 10-year note was 113 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.
Counting the Chickens Twice
There’s an old bit of advice that one shouldn’t count one’s chickens before they’re hatched.
The Year of Living Dangerously
How to structure your portfolio when interest rates are rising.
March Trade Deficit at $74.5B, 5.6% More Than February
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -74.45B was at the Investing.com forecast.
Financial Folly, Religious Frenzy and the Delusions of Crowds
What do financial folly and religious frenzy have in common?
April ISM Manufacturing Index: Continued Expansion Despite Decrease
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for April. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 60.7, a decrease of 4.0 from 64.7 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 65.0 percent.
April Markit Manufacturing: "Strongest improvement in operating conditions on record amid marked uptick in client demand"
The April US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 60.5, up 1.4 from the 59.1 final March figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Weekly Market Snapshot
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
With Everything Up Right Now, Where are the Value Buying Opportunities?
With everything up, where are the value buying opportunities?
Bitcoin and Coinbase in Lofty Territory
In 2017, Bitcoin entered mainstream conversation even though it had been around since 2009.
Top 10 Countries with Largest Gold Reserves
Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 11 consecutive years.
Chicago PMI Highest Since 1983
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 72.1 in April from 66.. in March, which is in expansion territory and its highest since 1983. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
The Big Four: Real Personal Income in March
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in March rose 1.44% and is up 3.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.92%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year.
2021 Q1 Letter
The reflation trade continued in earnest during the first quarter of 2021. Commodities were up another 13.3% from January to March, following a 14.7% move in the fourth quarter of 2020.
What’s Working? Two Ideas For Investors
In recent months, two investment themes have been rewarding investors with outperformance: defense sector companies and those participating in share buybacks.
High Yield Bonds in View: Energy
Much has changed since the oil-market collapse in the early pandemic days of 2020, when prices actually turned negative. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Research Analyst/Portfolio Manager Bryant Dieffenbacher looks back at industry developments since then, and outlines opportunities he sees in the high-yield energy bond market today.
Chart of the Week: Commodity Prices Pop as Demand Takes Off
As the global recovery kicks into gear, there are signs of shortages and delays causing pricing pressure. It appears that aggregate demand may be rebounding faster than aggregate supply.
Why We Remain Pro-risk
A powerful economic restart is underway in the U.S. – with Europe and emerging markets (EMs) set to follow.
Nonplussed – Strategic Income Outlook, Second Quarter
Although we remain constructive about the economic outlook, the recent increase in speculative activity gives us some pause. We continue to favor a cautious approach in the near-to-medium term.
The "Real" Goods on the March Durable Goods Data
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
Gold Off to a Slow Start as Central Banks Pivot Toward Digital Currencies
Some major changes could be coming soon to a central bank near you, with an estimated 90% of them at some stage of developing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National Index up 12% YoY
With today's release of the February S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.2% increase month over month which is cut to 0.9% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw an 11.9% YoY increase.
Governments Want You to Buy Green. Ignore Them at Your Peril
Investors betting against green trades are going up against the world’s most powerful governments.
Are Central Bank Digital Currencies the Future of Money?
More than 60 central banks right now are believed to be exploring the idea of digital currencies, including retail tokens that would be used by citizens as well as wholesale applications for financial institutions.
Stumbling to Scarcity
I think we will probably have a few months of significantly higher inflation. It will fade but meanwhile hurt certain people and industries. It will be like one of those extremes causing bruised knees and volatile markets.
Is Inflation Finally Back? Maybe, Maybe Not
Last week the Labor Department released its Consumer Price Index for March, and it was the highest monthly reading in more than eight years.
The Winners and Losers of the American Jobs Plan
Infrastructure is the backbone of any healthy economy, and America’s is in desperate need of refurbishment and investment.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth rebounded in March"
Led by improvements in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +1.71 in March from –1.20 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in March, and all four categories improved from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.54 in March from +0.07 in February.
There Is No Way This Bull Market Doesn’t End Very Badly
There is no way this bull market doesn’t end very badly.
Pump it Up: Earnings Season Starts Off Strong
Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.
Global Investment Committee Outlook: Continue risk-positive
John Vail of Nikko Asset Management dives into the findings from Nikko’s latest Global Investment Committee meeting.
Constructing Anti-Fragile Portfolios Amidst Financial Repression
How do we preserve and grow our client's wealth at inflation-adjusted rates, consistent with long-term returns of the requisite asset class, and to do so without taking undue risk of a permanent loss of capital?
Coinbase Goes Public, Opening the Crypto Floodgates
Digital currencies stormed Wall Street in a big way this week. Crypto exchange Coinbase went public in a direct listing, opening the floodgates for a number of other crypto-related companies.
Tsunami Warning
Right now, the stock market is in the land-where-there-should-be-sea phase. What we don’t know is when the wave is coming. Maybe there’s time to venture out and see what treasure was hidden beneath the waves... or maybe not. Prudence would suggest that we go searching for treasure on higher ground.
Bank of Canada: Walking a Tightrope
On April 21 the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet to discuss monetary policy.
Global Economic Outlook: Upward Together
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for global growth in this year of reopening.
Winning the Peace
Even before the war is over, the winning side needs to consider how to “win the peace” which will follow.
The Big Four: March Real Retail Sales Jumps 9.2%, All-Time High
Month-over-month nominal sales in March increased by 9.8%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 9.2%.
RANKED: Top 10 Countries with the Largest Shipping Fleets
There are a few different ways to measure the size of a shipping fleet.
Is Stagflation Coming?
Lost in the debate over whether today's ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies will trigger painful inflation is the broader risk posed by potential negative supply shocks.
Seven Policy Proposals to Meet the Paris Agreement Objectives
The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2o Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Areté quarterly review Q121: Incorporating inflation
After a long period of disinflation and trending markets, emerging signs of inflation threaten to upend a lot of investment playbooks.
The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
In response to a standing request, here is an updated comparison of four major secular bear markets. The numbers are through the March 31 close.
The Three Reasons You’re Not Growing (And What To Do About It)
Slow or stale growth always boils down to the same three reasons…
The Next Bubble?
Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.
The Best Business Conditions of the 21st Century?
Millions of Americans, it seems, felt that the time was right to trade in their clunkers for a new set of wheels.
Which Way is Up?
As the end of the pandemic came into view in the U.S. and the new administration’s stimulus plan became more probable, expectations for economic growth and inflation have increased.
The Debate Over the Next Move in Bonds Has Never Been Fiercer
It isn’t hard these days to find investors trumpeting the demise of the decades-long bull run in Treasuries.
Bitcoin: An Asset Allocator’s Perspective
Institutions are increasingly allocating to digital assets, but their role in a portfolio is not yet well defined or studied. This piece focuses on Bitcoin and reviews its relationship with major asset classes in the context of an institutional caliber portfolio. Standard techniques are used to help advisors better understand position sizing and the associated risk/reward tradeoff.
Always a Reckoning
From 1949 through 1964, the S&P 500 enjoyed an average annual total return of 16.4%. In the 8 years that followed, through 1972, the total return of the index averaged a substantially lower 7.6% annually; strikingly close to the 7.5% projection that Graham had suggested based on prevailing valuations, yet still providing what Graham had suggested would likely “carry a fair degree of protection” against inflation, which averaged 3.9% over that period.
Positive First-Quarter Data Point to a Global, Sustained Economic Boom
We’re more than ready to put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For the first time since this all started a year ago, more than one million people per day have been flying commercial in the U.S. for 30 straight days.
Tiny Housing Bubbles
Yes, the housing market is a bit overheated, but for reasons that make far more sense than the rationalizations of stock market bulls. Some buyers are certainly overpaying and may regret it. Nonetheless, I don’t foresee another 2008-style housing crash in the near future, nor anything like the subprime crisis. There are altogether different fundamentals working here.
CIO Says, “Resilience Is in Our DNA – and in the Markets”
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
In Unprecedented Times, Don’t Rely on (Obvious) Precedent
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
Q1 2021 Strategy Letter
Well, let’s just say things are different in 2021.
Pizza Dough Prices May Rise as Dryness Imperils U.S. Wheat
A boost in pizza prices in the U.S. may be on the horizon, if weather and planting estimates are any indication.
Global Equities: Reviewing the Risks to Recovery
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Market Leadership Shifted as Investors Gained Confidence in a Post-Covid Economic Rebound
Within the growth-vs.-value context, we’d like to discuss three Covid-related scenarios for companies.
Dumb and Dumber III
Dumb and Dumber was a 1994 movie which tells the story of Lloyd Christmas (Jim Carrey) and Harry Dunne (Jeff Daniels)
Light at the End of a Long Tunnel
We have all endured the Covid-19 pandemic for over a year now.
Yellen Backs Aligning U.S. Portfolios With Climate Goals
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday outlined her department’s plans on fighting climate change with remarks that are likely to ramp up a dispute with Republican lawmakers over the appropriate use of financial regulation on that front.
You Wanna Buy A Bridge?
Recently, a piece of collage art entitled “Everydays: The First 5000 Days,” by an artist known as Beeple, sold at a Christie’s auction for $69 million.
Jobs!
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
We’re on the Cusp of Mass Crypto Acceptance
The acceptance of digital currencies as a form of payment expanded greatly this week, foreshadowing the increasingly important role cryptos such as Bitcoin and Ether will play in our lives going forward.
The Dilemma - Why investments Must Be Boosted But Also Why Society May Not Be Able to Afford It
You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
Money Seemingly Boundless
Within days of each other in March two Northeast Ohio legends passed away: Michael Stanley and Joe Tait.
Animal Spirits at Cocktail Parties
My generation, millennials (those born from 1980 to 2000), have been noted for much of the last 10 years to be a risk averse group.
Delegation versus Perfection
Perfectionism sounds great but it can be the gateway to disaster.
‘MMT-Lite’ Is Reshaping Markets and May Get $2 Trillion Lift
If there’s one key takeaway for financial markets after a year of pandemic, it’s that officials now seem predisposed to throwing huge amounts of money at protecting their economies.
Gold Miners Recorded Record High Margins in 2020
Gold producers had their most profitable year ever in 2020, based on one metric.
K2 Advisors Second Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook
With a broad-based economic reopening coming closer into focus, investors are planning for the next stage in the cycle.
Dealing With an Inflation Head Fake
We forecast a strong global recovery in 2021 amid significant fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, diminishing lockdowns, and accelerating vaccinations.
Inflated Fears of “Rigged” Markets and Hyperinflation
Our economy is recovering; the stock market is booming. Yet I'm hearing investors express much more fear now than they did last March when the stock market was falling off a cliff. I see a couple of reasons for this.