Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?
The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.
Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Black Friday
The economic calendar is loaded with data and we have a holiday-shortened week. In some circumstances the many economic reports and the Washington stories would dominate. This week the market and economic context suggests a different theme.
Macro Factors and Their Impact on Monetary Policy, the Economy, and Financial Markets
In October the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2019 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 3.2% in July. This represents a marked slowing from global growth of 3.8% in 2017. The primary driver of the slowdown has been a retrenchment in global trade and business investment in response to the ratcheting up of trade tariffs since early 2018.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time for Investors to Act
The economic calendar is a light one in sharp contrast to last week’s. That was a good time to observe the market reaction to a wide range of news. Now is the time for investors to use the information.
Asset Allocation Views: Easing Into Slowing Growth
Read our key takeaways from our 2019 Asset Allocation Midyear Update, including how we are positioning multi-asset portfolios in light of our outlooks for the global economy and markets.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Get Out, Hide Out, or Ride It Out?
The economic calendar is normal, featuring housing starts, retail sales, and Michigan sentiment. The CPI will be important someday, but only when it breaks the recent path of gentle increases. With summer vacations in full swing (even Congress is on a five-week recess) the punditry turns to tried and true topics...
Gundlach: Fed will be in "Panic Mode" When a Recession Hits
If the signs of a recession prove true, the Fed will be in panic mode, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. The economy will weaken, rates will go up and the Fed will have to “do something,” to protect against a “spiral” of higher rates feeding and slower growth.
Worried Index-Based Strategies are Distorting the Bond Market? The Data Says You Shouldn’t Be
Despite record inflows into fixed income ETFs, concerns around the growth of these funds leading to an outsized impact on the fixed income market and the distortion of bond prices are still overblown, according to the data.