America's Driving Habits as of December 2020
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by -10.3% (-28.1 billion vehicle miles) for December 2020 as compared with December 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 244.1 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was down 0.98% month-over-month and down 13.2% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 1.04% month-over-month and down 13.5% year-over-year.
Howard Marks On Speculative Manias
One of my favorite investing legends is Oaktree Management’s Howard Marks. His investing wisdom and in-depth knowledge of investor psychology and market dynamics are unparalleled. Given the “speculative mania” we continue to watch in the market, I thought a review of some of his previous thoughts is appropriate.
An Out-of-Sample Test for Factor-Based Strategies
Factor-based models are often criticized for data mining. One way to address that charge is with “out-of-sample” testing over longer time frames. But that takes time. New research provides an alternative out-of-sample test – using emerging-market bonds.
Schwab Market Perspective: Disconnection
Hope is high that economic growth will accelerate as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, but so far economic data has been lackluster. Meanwhile, bond investors are expecting inflation despite signs that the economic recovery’s momentum may be stalling. Why does everything seem so disconnected?
Your Portfolio May Be Less Diversified Than You Think
When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.
Detached Parabolas and Open Trap Doors
Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value. I am convinced that future generations will use the present moment to define the concept of a reckless speculative extreme, in the same way our generation uses “1929” and “2000.”
Is Diversification Dead?
Over the last dozen years, investors holding the classic US 60/40 portfolio were substantially better off than their diversified peers, yet now is not the time to abandon diversification and diversifying asset classes. We believe it is imprudent to trust that escalation in valuations will continue unabated into the next decade...
A Practical Guide to Behavioral Finance
The future of financial advice is evolving. The real value of an advisor not only requires the ability to build a plan and portfolio, but to guide clients through the process, unearth their values and emotions, and change their behavior for the better. A realm of the relationship is called the human side of money. Here today to talk about that human side and how advisors can leverage the science of behavioral finance is Brendan Frazier.