Asian/European Markets

Concerns about China’s slowing economy have focused on issues affecting property and manufacturing. But these are only part of the story. Investors seeking a fuller understanding of the risks and opportunities need to take a broader perspective.

After solid performance in both July and August, the S&P 500 was considerably weaker in September. It was more than just passing weakness, however. The stock market looked much less the cocksure prize fighter than the contender who took a shot to the jaw that wobbled his knees.

September closed with a whimper (from folks hoping the seven-month stretch of positive performance months for the S&P 500 would make it to eight). The month also held true to the history of September being the worst month for performance on average since the index’s inception in 1928.

Fed funds futures for 2022 and 2023 have broken out to new highs, likely on the back of rising inflation expectations. As things stand now, the market is looking for three hikes by the end of 2023, with the effective fed funds moving from 8bps today to 85bps.

The Delta variant’s impact on supply chains and domestic spending slowed economic activity in the third quarter. Consumer confidence dipped noticeably, and businesses’ outlook dimmed somewhat. Rising inflation, the product of goods and labor shortages, has been a concern.

The strong economic and market trends of the first half of 2021 wavered during the third quarter. The coronavirus delta variant caught up with the US at the height of the summer, just as vaccinations slowed and concerns grew that inflation might flare and persist.

Looking ahead, new sources of inflation may continue to arise. Unless the mounting pressures push inflation to significantly higher levels that would provoke central banks into aggressive tightening, the impact on global stock markets may be a positive.

The rise of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing is nothing short of extraordinary, according to Yu Meng, Chair of Asia Pacific at Franklin Templeton. As we are constantly reminded by extreme climate change events, he says urgent actions are required from all of parts of society and the economy, including the financial markets.

Given a potential inflationary environment and sell-offs in Chinese equities, we have taken great care to trim weightings in China, and we have made adjustments to reduce holdings with extended valuations and increase holdings that are well-suited to transmit pricing power or have more attractive valuations.

Investors need to understand the differences between Chinese capitalism and Western capitalism in order to properly assess the opportunities in China. Meanwhile, norms in India more closely resemble those in the United States— but India has dramatically larger headroom for growth.

Several events will have major influences on the global economy in the months ahead.

Bitcoin topped $56,000 on Friday for the first time since May as a number of positive crypto developments galvanized investors in the month of “Uptober.”

Historical comparisons are always risky. This is particularly so when comparing different eras in vastly different countries like the US and China. Similarities can actually obscure more important differences.

There are a few important lessons that every aspiring entrepreneur should know.

The next decade will see an urgent and widespread boom in investments in innovation across all economic sectors, according to Stephen Dover and Kim Catechis of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute. They say this technology wave will be experienced in both private and public sectors, and in every facet of investment portfolios for years to come.

Robust engagement with company management can be key in sparking catalysts that unlock shareholder value and potentially lead to better returns over the longer term, according to Franklin Mutual Series Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Ambassador Tim Rankin.

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

We view the U.S. Treasury yield spike as resolving a disconnect between the powerful restart and lower yields in recent months, and stay tactically pro-risk.

We do not expect widespread contagion across China’s real estate or banking sectors despite the challenging outlook.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies Shailesh Kshatriya and Investment Strategy Analyst BeiChen Lin discussed recent political headlines in Washington, D.C., the rise in U.S. government bond yields and the potential outcomes of Germany’s recent elections.

Shanghai Surprise is a 1986 movie about a con man, a nurse, and a coveted supply of opium. Markets got a Shanghai Surprise of their own in the third quarter, as China’s “common prosperity” movement led to crackdowns on myriad industries.

Gold’s average daily trading volume for the one-year period was $183 billion, compared to the S&P 500 with nearly $235 billion. That dollar amount is enough to beat currency swaps as well as all government and corporate debt.

A few months ago in Xi’s Big Mistake, I said Beijing risked killing the entrepreneurial activity that had spurred the country’s rapid growth. As we learn more, this is looking less like a mistake and more like a mistakenly-conceived plan.

We’re upgrading the Staples sector, but only incrementally. Here’s why.

Wealth has risen excessively in recent years and, now, inflation has started to rise as well. Why those two stories are two sides of the same coin, and why much of the growth in wealth must be confiscated again is what this month’s Absolute Return Letter is about.

The country’s leadership has designed a new development model, based on a ‘common prosperity’ philosophy, aimed at modernising the economy by improving the country’s future demographic profile via lowering inequality and promoting sustainable, even if slower, GDP growth which is both less dependent on financial leverage and in harmony with nature.

The Berlin Wall came down 32 years ago this November, ushering in a new era of freedom and opportunity. But judging from the results of a recent local election, it looks as if socialism is trying to stage something of a comeback in Germany’s capital city.

The US Federal Reserve will soon slow its open market purchases of fixed-income securities. These purchases have served to keep rates low and liquidity flowing, but as the post-pandemic economy heals, it’s time for the Fed to taper. As they step back from buying, who is going to step forward?

A three-party coalition could soon govern Germany for the first time in the country’s history following recent elections. Matthias Hoppe, senior vice president and portfolio manager, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, believes uncertainty caused by coalition talks is likely to increase volatility in Europe’s financial markets, but changing a conservative attitude to public spending is the real challenge for a new government as Germany wrestles with the reality of increasing macro-economic imbalances and a stated aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

We have become famous (or infamous) regarding our views that there is a bubble in long-duration assets. In this report, we investigate what’s causing such widespread bubbles, their potential effects on the overall economy, and the interesting investment opportunities resulting from the bubble’s misallocation of capital.

The Chinese government may yet succeed in insulating the broader market from the financial crisis at real estate giant Evergrande. But the larger challenge is to rebalance an economy that has depended for far too long on the bloated housing market for jobs and growth.

As the globe enters the waning months of 2021, concerns over inflation, the delta variant of COVID-19 and the unwinding of easy-money policies loom large for markets. Despite this, we believe that the business cycle is still in a recovery phase, although it’s maturing. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S. in the months ahead, allowing market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.

The German election resulted in change in party leadership, but market impact should be limited, according to David Zahn, our Head of European Fixed Income. He shares an overview of the election implications.

Evergrande Group, the “too big to fail” Chinese property developer, rattled markets last Monday when it missed interest payments to at least two of its lenders. This gave more than a few investors flashbacks to Lehman Brothers’ demise in 2008, which helped trigger the global financial crisis.

The performance momentum could continue with the reopening of the nation’s capital reinvigorating economic growth, the strong upward trend in revisions to analysts’ earnings estimates for Japanese companies, lower relative valuations, and a historically bullish pre-election period.

The stage looks set for a taper without any tantrums.

The spillover from the property sector to the broader economy could be significant.

The new dual thrust of Chinese policy – redistribution plus re-regulation – will subdue the entrepreneurial activity that has been so important in powering China’s dynamic private sector. Without animal spirits, the case for indigenous innovation is in tatters.

On Monday, stocks solidly cracked below the 50-dma, but the bounce off the lows has investors asking if it’s “time to buy?”

Against the backdrop of a potential Evergrande failure, gold and Bitcoin look very attractive as stores of value, and both happen to be on sale right now.

Today, I want to show you how richly valued the market is and then review some of the top risks that could force it downward. Like those sandpiles I talk about, we don’t know exactly what will trigger a collapse. We know something will do it. Sandpiles don’t grow to infinity.

The recent issues with China Evergrande Group have raised concerns over the broader health of China’s real estate market, the potential risk to its financial system and, more broadly, whether this could trigger a global financial problem. In our latest Q&A, Portfolio Manager Teresa Kong, CFA and Investment Strategist Andy Rothman provide their views and insights.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Bo Zhuang shares his perspective on China's Evergrande situation and how the government may respond.

The Delta variant and supply constraints are the biggest worries for the global outlook.

Emerging markets have evolved over the last few decades. Today, Asia is the core of growth, rising consumption and innovation within emerging markets, and world class industry leaders in innovation have changed the game of investing.

After a challenging 2020 due to the pandemic, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been flowing into Russia this year for a number of reasons. Among them is it offers positive real rates compared to other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

Prior to today, the S&P 500 index was down four days in a row, and many market observers are blaming China, specifically the recent news about Evergrande, a major Chinese real estate company that looks to be heading to default on its loans.

Senior Sovereign Analyst Bo Zhuang clears up some key questions about China's regulatory crackdown.

India’s second COVID wave subsided in June and continues to remain at the lower level and Indian equities were a bright spot for the region, significantly outperforming Asia and broader emerging markets in August.

In December, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to announce the retirement of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) next March. But how will the central bank manage this process? And what will this mean for euro-area bond yields?

Rising inflation and declining growth are more likely to be a part of the global economy’s upcoming journey than features of its destination. But how policymakers navigate this journey will have major implications for longer-term economic well-being, social cohesion, and financial stability.

For those who haven’t heard, global markets slumped yesterday as a Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande, was reported to be approaching bankruptcy. For many, this news brings to mind the great financial crisis of 2008.

Given today’s high debt ratios, supply-side risks, and ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, the rosy scenario that is currently priced into financial markets may turn out to be a pipe dream. Over the medium term, a variety of persistent negative supply shocks could turn today’s mild stagflation into a severe case.