Market Scout – Trusting Our Instruments and Covid-19 Update
Like a pilot relying on a plane’s flight-control instruments during an unfamiliar route with poor visibility, we are depending more than ever on our fact-based, unemotional investment methods. The overwhelming majority of our investments are in companies that we believe are built to withstand harsh economic shocks. Only on the margin have we slightly increased our trading activity.
Navigating the Maze of Models
Once again, no one cares about the economic calendar. There are a few items with recent data – jobless claims, mortgage applications, and Michigan sentiment – but most reports are old news. Everyone is focused on the increase in coronavirus cases and deaths. There are plenty of predictions, each based on model from a reputable source. The variation is wide.
World Markets Update
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through April 6, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a loss of 9.38%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a loss of 17.55% and in third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 17.57%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a loss of 33.12%.
Actively Managed Funds Fail When Needed the Most
Advisors had little use for actively managed funds over the recent bull market; index funds did exceptionally well. But just when those actively managed funds were most needed – over the recent market downturn – they failed to protect investors.
Convertibles: Providing Risk Management and Positioned for a Snapback
The stage is being set for what we internally call the “convertible trifecta.” The markets are uncertain right now. But when markets eventually calm, the team would expect to see the combined forces of equity upside, credit upside and convert valuation gaps closing, which can be very powerful on the way back up.
Aaand It’s Gone…The Biggest Support For Asset Prices
With the economy shut down, layoffs in the millions, and no clear visibility about the economic recovery post-pandemic, companies are going to become vastly more conservative on the use of their cash. Given that source of market liquidity is now gone, the market will have a much tougher time maintaining current levels, much less going higher.
Cisco, Apple and Oracle: Strong Cash Positions Indicate Safe Long-Term Returns
During this horrible crisis, I feel very fortunate that “social distancing” is very practical and easy for my family and me. We are blessed to live in the country on a 20-acre estate with a private lake and a backyard that is steaming with wildlife.
Which ETFs Will the Fed Buy?
The US Federal Reserve announced it would buy exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as part of a range of measures to help support the markets in the wake of the coronavirus. David Mann, Head of Capital Markets, Global ETFs, examines which ETFs it might actually buy, and when.
Record Unemployment Claims and Oil's Best Day Ever
A head-spinning 6.6 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits this week bringing the two-week total to 10 million. That’s more than the combined populations of Los Angeles and Chicago.
Living on “COVID” Time
The coronavirus has forced a number of behavior changes throughout societies across the globe, including how we work, shop and interact with others. Our Head of Equities Stephen Dover discusses how COVID-19 has impacted investor decisions, too.