Gun sales in the US have gone through the roof in 2020, especially since the widespread protests turned violent last spring in many large cities across the US. Over three million more guns have been sold since March than occurred in the same period a year ago.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks walks readers through the unusual characteristics of this year’s economy; the impact of Covid-related monetary and fiscal policy actions, including low interest rates, on today’s markets; and the possible ramifications of the Fed/Treasury’s rescue efforts. What does it all mean for investors who face an environment marked by some of the lowest prospective returns in history?
The price of Regular and Premium are unchanged from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.19 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $1.83. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 39.43, up 0.5% from last week.
Key events related to fiscal policy, social distancing and COVID-19 could dictate US economic performance. Our outlook is broadly constructive.
I have much to say about referrals. For this article, let’s focus in on three of the biggest mistakes I have seen advisors make with referrals.
How do I get my staff to realize they have the power to effect change and they don’t have to come to me with every single problem?
The latest full set UIG for September is 1.27% while the prices-only measure is 2.16%. Current Headline CPI is now 1.37% and Core CPI is 1.71%.
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.
What if there was a simple, inexpensive, intervention that could reverse negative employee behavior and improve your bottom line?
Many trust documents contain sufficient flexibility around management of trust assets. But what about an irrevocable trust? Can you replace a trustee?
GSAM has analyzed the asset allocation of thousands of advisor managed portfolios over the years and found that many of those portfolios cluster closely together in terms of expected return and risk characteristics. Model portfolios may help to achieve similar outcomes to what advisors are already getting while also helping advisors realign their time, reduce regulatory and due diligence burdens, establish business continuity, and leverage institutional expertise. Model portfolios, like the Goldman Sachs S&P G-MAPs, maybe a tool to achieve the same results in a simpler fashion.
The world feels topsy turvy. We are in the midst of the sharpest recession since the Great Depression, businesses are closing left and right, and yet for many it doesn’t seem like a recession at all... and the stock market is booming? The virus, and the responses to it, have turned the world upside down. Let’s straighten out what we can.
We've updated this series to include the September release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $42,267, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago.
Anyone who owns U.S. large cap stocks must understand what can happen from the actions of the government to enforce the laws on the books for antitrust. Contrary to popular opinion, these laws are not set up to primarily protect consumers from being gouged on price by someone with a monopoly.
The potential economic and market impacts a “Blue Wave” for the U.S. election could have on five key areas: taxes, labor, the environment, oil and trade.
The initial efforts by policy makers positioned the economy for a robust rebound off the depressed levels, but there are still many moving pieces in order for the economy to return to pre-COVID levels.
Escalating trade tensions between the US and China could affect Chinese corporate bonds, but not all credits are vulnerable.
While the subject of taxes would probably elicit a yawn as dinner party conversation (assuming dinner parties happen again at some point), it’s something many investors need to contemplate as year-end approaches.
There’s more consensus than usual over the likely winner of the U.S. presidential election. After that, there’s plenty of disagreement on strategies to wager on an election that’s been flashing warnings of chaos ahead in volatility markets.
Asset managers that had been longtime ETF holdouts -- including Wells Fargo, Federated Investors and Dimensional Fund Advisors -- are finally diving in.
Flows into U.S. fixed-income products this year have surpassed the total for all of last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.37%, up from 1.31% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.71%, down from 1.74% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.
The headline number for September came in at 104.0, up 3.8 from the previous month. The index is at the 90th percentile in this series.
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through October 12, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a gain of 10.11%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a gain of 9.39% and in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 0.41%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 20.43%.
Single-premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) can deliver superior retirement outcomes by reducing sequence-of-return and inflation risks if a portion of the monthly payments are systematically invested in equities.
The Investment Company Act of 1940 contains a loophole providing institutional investors an advantage over individual investors that some are using to the detriment of closed-end funds and their retail investors.
Record flows to ESG funds means that advisors will have access to better tools to analyze product effectiveness and will be able to construct customized solutions for their clients.
It is well-established that “lottery” stocks – those offering the potential for outsized returns, like penny and growth stocks – deliver poor performance. While one might expect that naïve, retail investors are the ones buying those stocks, new research shows that is not the case.
We compare fixed annuities to other safe investments, such as CDs and Treasury securities, to better understand whether they provide attractive risk-adjusted performance and are a reasonable alternative for risk-averse investors.
Investor resilience may be tested in the coming months with dwindling fiscal support and political uncertainty in the US.
Job losses in the early stages of the pandemic were more concentrated among low-wage workers. About half of those jobs have come back. For high-wage workers, who have been more able to work from home, job losses were less severe and have rebounded much better.
The U.S. presidential election is adding to market angst. How much do politics matter in the long run? Tony DeSpirito answers in this one-minute read.
COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter, the latter of which was the steepest drop in real GDP for any quarter since the Great Depression in the 1930s.
It seems like ages ago that our firms closed their doors and we scrambled to set up home offices. We weren’t sure what challenges lay ahead, and the market took our breath away in those first intense weeks. But while we don’t like having to cope with a disaster, human beings tend to do well in a crisis and to adapt quickly to massive disruptions.
Noise levels are likely to remain elevated in the run-up to – and possibly in the immediate aftermath of the upcoming US presidential election, but the post-election outlook should prove positive for EM assets by ushering in a period of more positive risk-sentiment, a long period of low US rates and a lower Dollar.
I can’t wait until the election is over so that these horrible election year clichés will disappear.
In recent weeks the market has been notably broader in terms of the upside participation from stocks other than FAANMGs. Typically, this type of action in the early stages of a business cycle would be strongly associated with the “value” style working, since “value” companies skew considerably smaller than “growth” companies in aggregate.
There is currently much hope for another fiscal stimulus package to be delivered to the economy from Congress. While President Trump recently doused hopes of a quick passage, there a demand for more stimulus by both parties. While most hope more stimulus will cure the economy’s ills, it will likely disappoint due to the “2nd derivative effect.”
Every once in a while, a breaking news story is on a topic that I actually understand. The September 27 New York Times article about Trump’s taxes was one such story. Many reactions to it show considerable misunderstanding and confusion on how the tax system works.
The sooner we act, the sooner the power of compound investing can start changing the math for those who are currently destined to miss out on a fair and livable retirement.
Emerging markets have had different approaches to coping with COVID-19 and are at different stages of recovery. Our emerging markets equity team examines trends, news and data shaping emerging markets in the third quarter, and shares its latest outlook.
To some critics, Trump’s behavior and decision-making process may seem erratic, but I believe they make a sort of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory.
The environment is one of many sets of regulations under consideration.
Today I want to make some informed speculation about how the next year will unfold. We’re going to reach some key decision points in the coming months and you’ll make better decisions if you think about them before we get there.
The yield on the 10-year note ended October 9, 2020, at 0.79%, the 2-year note ended at 0.16%, and the 30-year at 1.58%.
Investors and analysts are bullish about the devices, partly because 5G networks are more built out in China.
Shares of renewable-energy companies expected to benefit from Biden’s energy policy plans have surged.
The Russell 2000 has advanced more than 12% since a recent low on Sept. 23 -- almost twice as much as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.
Overall, Brent is optimistic about the U.S. economy and stock market heading into the fourth quarter.
Every January, I start keeping track of the predictions for the upcoming year I hear in the financial media and from advisors and investors. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, it’s time for my third review of how those forecasts played out.