Tomorrow is National Dictionary Day! Whether spoken or written, the power of words is undeniable. And as your Investment Strategy Team, we choose ours wisely, as to not create confusion when communicating our views.
There was another “disappointing” gain in nonfarm payrolls in September (up 194,000, vs. a median forecast of +500,000), but it’s not as bad as it looks. Less hiring at the start of the school year resulted in a decline in (adjusted) education jobs.
While unlikely to occur, a default on U.S. debt would have serious impacts for global financial markets. Learn more.
As we sit atop our prosperous peak, admiring the views of the fastest economic growth since 1984, the best start to a bull market and the record-breaking quarter of earnings growth, it’s wise to remember that not too long ago we began our uphill journey from the depths of the COVID-19 ravine. Often, the best views come after the hardest climbs.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
Following the strong performance in the first half of the year, economic growth was bound to moderate in the second half. Growth is still expected to be strong by historical standards. Yet, it may be disappointing for some investors.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
In a win (but not a complete victory) for “team transitory,” the Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in August (+0.3%, up just 0.1% excluding food and energy). Areas that were running hot a few months ago (used cars, vehicle rentals, car insurance, airfares) retreated.
In addition to football, this fall will be eventful for our team of monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve. Quarterbacked by Chairman Powell, the Fed will draft its route to easing its accommodative stance now that the economic recovery has put some points on the scoreboard.
As of the end of August, the index's year-to-date gains exceed 20%.
“We have production bottlenecks and supply shortages in every economic recovery,” says Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown, but those issues – and inflation – are expected to ease with time.
From school bells to the bells of New York Stock Exchange—the ringing of bells often signifies the beginning and/or conclusion of an event.
Optimism around GDP growth, employment and earnings has, for now, outweighed worries related to COVID-19 variants.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam examines the current investing environment through the lens of classic games.
The CPI rose more than expected in April, adding to inflation worries.
The markets continue their upward trend, supported by accommodative fiscal policy from the Federal Reserve, strong gross domestic product (GDP) numbers and solid earnings reports.
Today marks 100 days since President Biden was sworn into office, a time often referred to as the ‘honeymoon period’ for a new president’s tenure.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy.
On Monday, the Treasury Department is expected to report a March budget deficit of about $658 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $4.1 trillion, about 19% of GDP. Proponents argue that the added spending, with more to come, will help to ensure the recovery.
As a backdrop, we’ll bring a bit of scientific language to our analysis this quarter as we celebrate the amazing feats of our scientific brothers and sisters.
As the pandemic recedes and the economy reopens, we can expect strong job growth in the months ahead.
Economic data rarely follow a smooth path. Weather and external events have effects.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and did not alter its monthly pace of asset purchases.
What sustained low interest rates could mean for the economy and your wallet.
In an online discussion, Fed Chair Powell repeated that the central bank is a long way from achieving its inflation and employment goals (implying no change in short-term rates or the money pace of asset purchases anytime soon).
Long-term interest rates have continued to rise. While part of the increase has been fed by inflation fears, those concerns are overdone.
Though rising yields may be indicative of an economic recovery, market volatility and inflationary fear could produce future hurdles.
Despite the recent weakness in equities, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam expects positive stock growth over the next 12 months.
The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher.
For a variety of reasons, many investors are worried about higher inflation. While we may see reflation (a pickup in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic), a significant increase in underlying inflation appears unlikely.