The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook on the Fed’s balance sheet, the world's persistent preference for cash, and the challenge of measuring the gig economy.
The Northern Trust economics team explores agriculture markets globally and in the United States.
The Northern Trust economics team shares its outlook for US economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
The Northern Trust Economics team addresses a variety of questions heard most often from our audiences.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation, and interest rates in the U.S., U.K., E.U., Japan and China.
The economics team surveys a variety of upcoming events: Mexican elections this weekend, trade battles in the coming months, and LIBOR sunsetting in the years ahead.
China is in focus this week as the economics team considers the country’s trade practices and defaults in its bond market.
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The team illustrates the economic background behind the Korean summit meeting and profiles corporate debt.
Strong growth and employment reports affirm Northern Trust’s positive outlook for U.S. economic performance in the rest of 2018.
The Northern Trust Economics team recaps the circumstances that led to this week’s drama in Italy and investigates a slowdown in U.S. business formation.
Public debt may be growing at the expense of private debt, the Chinese bond market is opening up, and important dates for tariffs are fast approaching.
In this issue, the Economics team looks at current recession risks in the U.S. and eurozone, and explores how rising oil prices will affect U.S. consumers.
The Northern Trust economics team explores the risks of overstretched state and local governments, dramatic actions in Argentina and Turkey, and the recent difficulty of the carry trade.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts U.S. economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
Oil prices are rising. We explore the causes of this recent trend and the effects it will have on markets across the world.
This week, the economics team takes a look at NAFTA, past and present.
In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.
How much debt is too much? [Carl/The Northern Trust Economics team] digests the outlook for debt across countries and levels of government, recaps the most recent outlook for the U.S. fiscal situation, and contrasts China’s current ascendance with the historical example of Japan.
Northern Trust’s economic team recaps recent economic developments and shares our monthly outlook for economic growth, inflation, employment and interest rates in the United States.
Northern Trust’s Economic Research team shares its quarterly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
This issue contains a deeper look into the competitive strategies at play in the current U.S.-China tariff feud, the drivers of the recent upturn in U.S. homeownership, and the market for Japanese government bonds.
One year away from its deadline, Brexit is already shaping up to be an expensive arrangement. Strong U.S. employment makes us question the “natural rate” of unemployment. Do aging populations increase or reduce inflation? Time will tell.
In many respects, economists are a little unusual. We think in odd ways, and we arrange data into odd patterns. We find it hard to reach conclusions without significant equivocation.
We’ve written about the American steel tariffs in each of the last two weeks. But there remain some important points to make on the topic of trade.
We may come to view February 2018 as a turning point for the U.S. economy. For the first nine years of the current expansion, fiscal policy was constrained and trade policy was measured. During the past month, the two have moved with more force, raising important questions about the outlook.
The White House has announced a new set of broad tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The measure is surprising in its scope, its targets and its break from the long-prevailing trends of international trade.
This week, the White House signaled its intention to place punitive tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum. Markets and analysts reacted quickly, and negatively.
U.S. fiscal policy has become unmoored, and it will be difficult to steer it safely back to shore.
I am a traditionalist when it comes to outdoor cooking: wood and charcoal are the only suitable fuels.
It is said we should be careful what we wish for, because we just might get it. Beginning late last week, stocks finally stepped back. Market declines of 5% and even 10% occur with some regularity, even in the midst of long bull intervals
For several years, the U.S. economy has produced a “Goldilocks” combination (neither too hot nor too cold) of solid growth with limited inflation. The absence of price pressures, even at very low levels of unemployment, has surprised many observers.
Given the events of a decade ago, 2018 promises to be a year filled with reminiscence. Chroniclers will recall the signs of the gathering storm: falling U.S. house prices, rising mortgage defaults and spreading institutional failures.
For more than a year, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has been losing value relative to most other currencies. When asked about this trend this week in Davos, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin seemed unconcerned, and even supportive.
Most central banks have targets, too. And judged solely by the numbers, monetary policy would be assigned a substandard rating.
We’ve been doing some de-cluttering at my house, adapting to life as empty nesters. During a review of some long-forgotten storage bins, I found the very first tax return I ever filed. It listed income of less than $2,000, earned lifeguarding and shelving books at the campus library.
As it is for people, so it is for business cycles, which can become more vulnerable as they continue. This theory will certainly be tested in 2018. The global economy enters this year with considerable momentum and lots of policy support.
The economic news this year could scarcely have been better. Strong growth, low inflation and rising asset prices in major markets will make 2017 one of the most successful years in recent memory.
There has been no let-up to the economic news cycle this year. Even the approach of the holiday season has failed to offer a respite, with tax reform deliberations ongoing through the holidays.
Times have changed, in more ways than one. This December has been especially hectic, with the transition in Brexit negotiations, U.S. tax reform debate and Bitcoin setting new highs every few minutes.
We’re thankful for this year’s economic growth in the U.S., which has exceeded most expectations. A soft first quarter has been followed by two quarters in which real activity expanded at an annual pace exceeding 3%.
Has the stock market gotten too expensive? Overall, we would say it hasn't. But we do feel some sectors are better positioned than others.
The elimination of personal exemptions is one of many features of the tax reform proposal presently being debated in Washington. If passed, the new regime would realign the finances of industries, households and even countries.
This month's forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.