Brexit takes an uncertain turn, while the Fed seeks loan borrowers and parents welcome adult children back home.
In recent years, global equities had slightly outpaced market forecasts for lower equity returns. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy, putting an end to the 10-year bull market. Equity markets have now started to recover, but the pandemic introduced and exacerbated challenges that we expect to subdue financial market returns over the next five years.
Breakout inflation is not our top concern. Europe explores support for national champions, and the U.S. unemployment rate masks some fragility.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from COVID-19.
The Fed’s strategic review added to a bevy of policy research revealed last week.
The Kansas City Fed’s annual Monetary Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole is a signature event for those of us who follow central banks. The conference typically doesn’t generate much front-page news: the subject matter is usually more technical and conceptual than a broad audience would appreciate. But 2020 is not a typical year.
The Fed’s new take on inflation was a long time coming, while Japan’s downturn drags on and U.S. housing stays strong.
The lodging industry illustrates a panoply of pandemic problems; and keeping people in their homes will be key to economic recovery.
Washington’s inaction on a fiscal deal and action on tariffs are both perplexing, while schools face complicated choices.
The Northern Trust Economics team forecasts the U.S. economy’s recovery from a record-breaking decline.
COVID-19 causes growth in government debt, liability risks, and stress for women.
How will our lives change during and after the pandemic? Let’s start with a look at education, medicine, automation, broadband access, city living and cash.
Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. A common objective of gold is to hedge against some type of risk. This paper shows how gold can reduce downside risk during big down markets, but isn’t the most effective inflation hedge.
The U.S. and EU deliberate how to disburse aid, China’s recovery carries risks, and U.S. mortgage rates find a floor.
Automatic stabilizers prevented an economic breakdown, while trains are running empty and money stays parked.
The first wave of the economic recovery has generally exceeded expectations, but the recent surges in COVID-19 cases could deliver a setback.
COVID-19’s path is evident everywhere we look: spending, saving, staffing, sentiment, and sports.
The journey to a full recovery will be a long one, but at least we’ve taken some initial steps.
The challenges keep mounting for global trade, unemployed workers, and banks.
More infections lead to more worry, while the commercial real estate and tourism sectors are put to the test.
Banks undergo a true stress test, smartphones measure movement, and poverty may rise.
Why did unemployment fall? Why is Brexit proceeding? And why did so much food go to waste?
Economic data shows mild improvement, but the road to recovery will be a long one.
Economic factors are motivating recent protests and changes to supply chains.
Faster actions are better in fiscal policy, but that’s not the case for China’s foreign policy.
The pandemic is putting universities and their graduates to the test.
Major economies are easing restrictions to reboot economic activity. Unfortunately, they are faced with a difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihoods.
The absence of a “V-shaped” recovery means trouble for policy makers, mortgage finance, and emerging markets.
The Northern Trust Economics team gives a perspective on a tough outlook for U.S. growth and employment this year.
Policy measures to aid financial markets and labor forces through the crisis are wide-ranging.
Economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, but the shocks in some parts of the world could last for longer.
Economic activity descended in an elevator and will climb back up on the stairs.
Economic data will reveal an incredible downturn.
Many consumers entered the crisis with no cushion.
Decisive measures taken today should help to keep the crisis from causing prolonged damage.
Relief efforts measured in trillions of dollars are bound to have some positive effect.
Growing policy responses reflect greater estimates of the costs of COVID-19.
Substantial fiscal policy is the best economic prescription for COVID-19.
Economic news will get worse before it gets better, but we expect the U.S. economy to pull through.
Can policymakers minimize economic disruptions from COVID-19?
We’ve been closely watching developments related to COVID-19 for the past several weeks. While we have hesitated to make significant changes to our outlook until evidence is clearer, we now expect the economic damage done by the outbreak will be more significant than initially thought.
The coronavirus outbreak is sending ripples through global supply chains and disrupting businesses.
The U.S. economy has been resilient in the face of uncertainty, but risks are growing.
A deep dive into the factors that brought inflation down and are keeping it low.
The U.S. Census is a vital research tool; the coronavirus is a vital risk.
Phase One: A limited deal is better than none.Inequality: We can’t manage what we can’t measure.Canada: Taking the lead with fiscal policy.
A strong economy will help U.S. consumers meet their financial resolutions in the new year, while residents of France and Australia have bigger worries.
Tensions between Iran and the United States brings a stressful start to 2020.
Continued modest global growth in 2020 may be the best we can hope for.