Municipal bond defaults have been rising, but investor demand remains robust. This incongruence may suggest the municipal market is behaving irrationally, but we don't think that's the case.
Almost nothing has felt certain in 2020. The presidential and congressional election results are two more things to add to the list. Markets had largely expected a blue wave, which has not materialized.
Coming into the home stretch of 2020, continued concerns about COVID-19 and the political environment persist and have been feeding risk-averse sentiment for many investors. Given the year the world has experienced, it’s not surprising people are focusing on portfolio risk mitigation.
There appears to be an increased willingness to engage in deficit spending on both sides of the aisle in Washington, DC. This could lead to a more “middle of the road” outlook for fiscal decision making.
Loomis Sayles credit analysts look at clean energy investment opportunities through a different lens. Here, they discuss what a Biden administration could mean for the power sector.
We’ve gone without a lot of things in 2020. Surprises aren’t one of them. After ten months of twists and turns, most of us are ready for a nice long stretch of the mundane. But this has been a strange year, and neither the year nor, I fear, the strangeness is over.
Sending a ballot by mail may seem straightforward, but the rules can be complex. Brian Horrigan explains some of the challenges associated with mail-in voting.
Loomis Sayles' Senior Credit Research Analyst Ryan McGrail summarizes potential policy proposals under a Biden administration and highlights the states and regions facing the greatest risk of federal regulation.
While there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, the process will remain intact regardless of who wins. Brian Horrigan shares a refresher on the Electoral College.
What could a Biden victory mean for investors? Read our latest blog post from the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team for their views on some key campaign issues.
Key events related to fiscal policy, social distancing and COVID-19 could dictate US economic performance. Our outlook is broadly constructive.
Investor resilience may be tested in the coming months with dwindling fiscal support and political uncertainty in the US.
Democrats could sweep the November elections according to many independent polls and political experts. What would that mean for the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, which have shown sensitivity to the political landscape?
When it comes to thinking about opportunities and risks in emerging markets (EM), old habits die hard. Investors and news articles tend to treat EM like one homogenous opportunity set, glossing over the range of underlying asset classes, regions, countries and currencies—each with distinct characteristics.
Infrastructure financing is coming to the municipal bond market. What can we expect?
The December deadline for a Brexit deal is quickly approaching. One consequence of Brexit was that firms couldn’t plan—or they were forced to plan for a no-deal scenario. It’s a big reason why the pace of business investment was so sluggish in the years since the 2016 referendum...
Consumers are traditionally the engine of the US economy, and I believe consumer confidence is an important indicator of consumer intentions. The August reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index suggests that consumers are not feeling optimistic.
US-China relations are built on a fragile web of complex issues. Recently, we’ve seen headlines about technology, sovereignty and human rights flare up, and the Phase 1 trade deal review has been delayed indefinitely. Here, I review these flashpoints and how they could affect US-China relations.
We believe the global economy appears to be working its way out of a deep recession. Read on for a visual snapshot of GDP growth around the globe.
The fund's portfolio managers explain their differentiated approach and why they believe it can deliver attractive returns in any market environment.
The Loomis Sayles Core Plus Fixed Income Team shares their thoughts on the potential for downgrades in the BBB debt market and dialing up portfolio risk.
The global pandemic has devastated global trade. It appears that some of the drop in trade is simply related to lower domestic demand everywhere as spending on consumer goods and investment goods has been slashed.
The Loomis Sayles Alpha Strategies Team answers three questions on corporate health, regime models and opportunities in emerging markets.
Loomis Sayles Portfolio Manager Ashish Chugh provides an update on emerging market equities and the impact COVID-19 has had on them recently.
In March, Bank Loans Portfolio Manager John Bell saw three different roads back to par, with market recovery in 6-12 months the most likely. How has the recent market activity changed his view?
In March, the Loomis Sayles Global Fixed Income Team anticipated the economy could experience sluggish growth in the third quarter after a downturn in the second. Given the ongoing vagaries of quarantines and shutdowns, how has their growth outlook changed?
Investors appear firmly focused on the economic recovery ahead. With Fed support and the potential for additional fiscal stimulus, we expect capital to shift toward riskier assets like credit and equities. However, we acknowledge that risk assets are largely priced for the better days we see ahead—a substantial decline in economic conditions could send markets into a corresponding decline.
The homebuilding and building products industries have held up quite well during this economic downturn compared to the material negative impact they experienced during the global financial crisis. After an initial demand shock resulting from shelter-in-place orders, housing activity has been trending more positively than I would have expected in May and June.
As the economy moves into a credit repair phase, uncertainty related to the future implications of COVID-19 persists.
As we enter credit repair, we are wary of using the global financial crisis as a benchmark for the path to recovery. We see several key reasons that suggest this time will be different.
A manager's alpha thesis can offer insight into an investment strategy's performance potential. Our growth equity alpha thesis is the differentiated philosophy & process behind what we do every day.
The COVID-19 pandemic has tipped the global economy into what appears to be the deepest recession in decades. No region has escaped the impact, but some have fared better than others. Read on for a visual snapshot of what 2020 growth may look like across the globe.
It may surprise some investors to learn that the leverage profile of emerging market (EM) corporations appears to be in better shape than that of their US counterparts. Maybe it’s a matter of “been there, done that.”
To make the best decisions, investors need a clear view of the road ahead. Watch to see how LASER can help you to stop looking only in the rear-view mirror.
It can be difficult to give a fair representation of each country’s market response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Each nation has varying initial conditions, population responses, and approaches to quarantines.
Credit markets are moving fast. But periods of maximum uncertainty often make the most attractive entry points.
COVID-19 and turbulence in the oil market have been reshaping daily life, economic fundamentals and market activity for weeks. Emerging markets, like the rest of the world, have been along for the ride.
Credit markets are bifurcated, and there’s a major yield difference between the perceived winners and losers. This trend is creating a lot of questions—and potential value—for credit investors. Here’s my take on the current environment and why I’m excited about the opportunity it’s creating.
When storage capacity is near its limits, how do oil producers offload their inventory? One way is to incentivize buyers with negative prices. This is precisely what happened on April 20, the day before the May WTI futures contract expired.
Investors and financial markets are forward-looking. They are constantly trying to anticipate the future and how to position for it. In a COVID-19 world, where economic uncertainty and financial market conditions are at extremes, that’s no easy task.
On April 9, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Municipal Lending Facility (MLF), aimed at allowing state and local (S&L) governments access to credit so that they may continue to function in these hard times.
On March 31, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of another new liquidity facility; this one is aimed at central banks and international institutions. This new facility is a temporary repurchase agreement facility for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA)...
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken another step in its attempt to avert a financial crisis. It revived its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a measure last used in the Great Recession.
It’s amazing what you can achieve with a budget of $75 billion per day. Since mid-March, the Federal Reserve has worked relentlessly to unfreeze Treasury markets. The results of its asset purchases are starting to show. Treasury liquidity—one of the most unusual and troubling pain points of this liquidity crisis—has vastly improved since quantitative easing (QE) started.
The Loomis Sayles municipal credit research team offers their current outlooks on key sectors.
COVID-19 continues to cause havoc across global economies—a trend that, unfortunately, is likely to continue through this quarter. However, we anticipate a broad rebound later this year on the back of meaningful stimulus recently put in place.
Like everywhere else, Europe needs liquidity. And the European Central Bank is delivering that in abundance. It appears to stand ready to do more without delay when markets become dysfunctional.
It’s been said before, but the truth appears to be this crisis is very different than others we’ve experienced. It's not an asset bubble tied to exuberance, greed, default, fraud or mismanagement of a country, currencies or anything else in our manmade economic system.
To help support investment-grade corporate bond market liquidity, the Federal Reserve introduced two facilities March 23: the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF).
Oil’s back below $30 and suddenly it feels like 2016 all over again. Only it’s not. Saudi Arabia’s 2015-2016 production boom was a war on US shale. This time, Saudi Arabia is waging a war for market share against Russia and the US. It’s a war with no winners, least of all US fracking.