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Results 201–250
of 287 found.
Market Thoughts for November 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses October tricks and treats for financial markets and the economy. As expected, it was a tough month for markets, as uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election and the future of interest rates continued to rattle investors. Still, fundamentals remain solid, and we were treated to rising business and consumer confidence, as well as strong economic growth. Is it possible that the trickiest part of the quarter is behind us? Stay tuned to find out. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Market Thoughts for October 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses the markets and economy for September. It was a volatile month, with markets dropping only to bounce back at month-end. Large companies in the S&P 500 were down slightly, while smaller companies and those outside of the U.S. did well. There was also a larger-than-expected pullback in the service sector, yet consumer confidence reached a nine-year high. Given such mixed news, should we be concerned about where the economy is going? Stay tuned to find out. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Fundamentals Vs. Policy: It’s All About Growth
Yesterday we discussed the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates, and what that might mean for markets. Right now, markets are largely trading on what policymakers are doing—which is to say, interest rates—and as policy normalizes, so, too, should markets.
Market Thoughts for September 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses how the markets and economy fared in August. Hiring was strong, consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and consumer spending continued to grow. The big questions for the month concern volatility: Why is volatility so low, and is it going to continue? To answer these questions, Brad looks at the consumer’s role in the recovery, whether there are signs of improvement on the business side, and the view from the Fed. He also explores what to expect in September. Stay tuned for more. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Market Thoughts for August 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses the markets and economy in July. Both domestic and international markets had a strong month. Improving fundamentals, including job growth and consumer spending, helped boost investor confidence. Still, economic growth in the first half of the year was disappointing, mainly due to lower levels of spending in the business sector. Can the Fed's more optimistic risk outlook and improvements in service and manufacturing turn things around in the second half? Stay tuned to find out. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Looking at Future Stock Returns
Yesterday we talked about future bond returns, noting that while bonds have done very well over the past several decades, current conditions suggest their returns over the next 10 years could be significantly lower. Today, we’ll focus on stocks, making the same distinction between returns from income and returns from capital gains.
U.S. Financial Markets: Strength Amid Global Turmoil
The last couple of weeks have been tough. Between the multiple tragedies in the U.S., the attempted coup in Turkey, Britain’s decision to exit the European Union, and the subsequent change of government there, it’s been difficult to keep an even keel.
Market Thoughts for July 2016
Commonwealth CIO Brad McMillan discusses the markets and economy in June. The big news last month was Britain's decision to leave the EU, which sent markets tumbling. But then a funny thing happened: the fear dissipated, and as investors started looking at the fundamentals, the markets began to recover. With signs of strength in consumer confidence and spending, and even continued growth in Europe, we appear to be well positioned for the future. If Brexit was a sort of stress test for the markets and economy, we passed. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Will Brexit Crash the Stock Market?
After a difficult two days, there’s a serious question on many investors’ minds: Is this the big one, the next crash? It's a reasonable concern. After all, haven’t we been hearing about all the damage Brexit could do? And haven’t we sort of been down this road before, with the Greek crisis in 2011?
Brexit After All
I woke up early this morning to check the results of the British referendum on leaving the European Union. Against expectations, the Leave vote won a convincing victory, defying the polls and the prediction markets. There’s no doubt the world has changed, significantly. There is considerable doubt about what that actually means and—more immediately—what to do about it.
Countdown to the Brexit Vote
With the British referendum on leaving the European Union—the “Brexit” vote—just two days away, worries are starting to rise again. As I wrote recently, I suspect that the Remain side will win. And even if the Leave camp prevails, the actual impact may be much less severe than many are now predicting.
What Is the Market Really Saying?
After a couple of posts on risky business (the Brexit vote and negative rates), let’s take a step back and look at the big picture. It’s easy to get caught up in individual stories, but we need to understand how they fit together—and what the market is saying about it all.
Bear Market Risks: Commodities and the Fed
Last week, we talked about several major warning signs for a bear market: recessions, commodity price spikes, rapid rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and high market valuations. In Friday’s Economic Risk Factor Update, we looked at the probability of a recession in the near future and concluded that it was unlikely.
Today, we’ll consider the next two risk factors: oil price spikes and Fed rate increases.
Market Thoughts for June 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth’s CIO, discusses the markets and economy in May. After an early pullback, improving economic news helped fuel a rally in U.S. indices at month-end. While manufacturing remains a concern, improvements in consumer spending and housing have boosted confidence, prompting the Fed to suggest that the economy has normalized. Internationally, political risks continue to be a factor. And any bad news could well rattle the markets. What can we expect tomorrow? Time will tell, but spring seems to have arrived. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
The Real Story Behind a Fed Rate Increase
Another Federal Reserve official, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker, has weighed in on rates, projecting two to three hikes over the rest of 2016, including a June increase. Much of the commentary on his statement and those of other Fed members has focused on the potential effects on the stock market—specifically, the risk that higher rates may pull the market down.
Wall Street’s Songs of the Summer
With Memorial Day quickly approaching, it’s about time to break out the boom box and cue up the songs of summer. As a 50-year-old economist, I’m not exactly on the cutting edge of pop culture, so I consulted my younger and (much) hipper friends and colleagues, along with several websites.
Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2016
It’s time for our monthly look at market risk factors. Just as with the economy, there are several key factors that matter for the market, in determining both the risk level and the immediacy of that risk. Although the recent pullback is largely in the rearview mirror, given valuations and recent market behavior, it's still useful to keep an eye on these factors.
Market Thoughts for May 2016
Following a strong March, markets suffered a pullback in early April after analysts cut forecasts for first-quarter earnings growth and worries about the economy resurfaced. Though markets recovered, we were left wondering: was the pullback a sign of things to come, or will we see markets continue to move along? Brad McMillan, Commonwealth Financial Network’s chief investment officer, looks at how ongoing strength in job and income growth, expansion in the manufacturing sector, and other factors could lead to a fruitful spring. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that lower government spending has been a big factor in the slow U.S. economic recovery. But it’s not the only culprit. Today, we'll take a look at three major headwinds to economic growth and whether they're likely to continue going forward.
Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much
Per a reader's request, today we'll talk about the impact of the current debt crisis in Puerto Rico. Not only is this a major issue for the Puerto Ricans and their investors, but it also sheds light on how similar crises are likely to play out in the future.
Market Thoughts for April 2016
Brad McMillan, Commonwealth Financial Network’s chief investment officer, discusses the markets and economy in March. After two bad months, things appear to be moving in the right direction, as markets were up about 7 percent across the board, and even foreign markets fared well. What happened to cause this reversal? From a rebound in oil prices, to a moderating dollar, to reasonably strong economic fundamentals, Brad explains how these factors have supported consumer confidence and what we might expect going forward. Follow Brad at blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Interest Rates: Lower for Longer, or Faster and Farther?
Two of the big economic stories—interest rates and the stock market—came together in the aftermath of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed opted to keep rates where they are (not a surprise), but the statement and Janet Yellen’s press conference were unexpectedly dovish, suggesting that rates are likely to stay much lower than the Fed had previously indicated. The expectation dropped from four increases in 2016 to just two, which surprised and encouraged the stock market.
The Fed makes an unexpected reversal (and then reverses again)
The Fed's announcement came despite
The Velocity of Money: Safe at Any Speed?
Recently, concerns about the velocity of money have resurfaced. Several readers have asked whether declining money velocity presages a crash, a recession, or something equally bad. It’s a fair question. As with many such issues, though, we’ve been down this road before several years ago. Low money velocity didn’t mean problems then, and it shouldn’t mean problems now.
Results 201–250
of 287 found.
