The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce a June budget shortfall of about $863 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $3 trillion (or about 14% of pre-pandemic GDP). The red ink will continue. Lawmakers are expected to approve another round of federal stimulus later this month. None of that is worth losing sleep over.
The June job market report and other indicators remained consistent with an unprecedented steep drop in economic activity in March and April, followed by a sharp-but-partial rebound in May and June. Many of these data were collected before the recent surge in COVID-19 cases.
It’s all about the pandemic. Rising cases in a number of states fueled fears of a second wave of infections and a more protracted economic recovery.
The initial economic rebound seen in recent weeks won’t bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, explains Chief Economist Scott Brown. “A full recovery will take time.”
Efforts to contain the coronavirus have had a major impact on the global economy. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the outlook, which has three elements. First, there was a sharp decline U.S. Gross Domestic Product in 2Q20. Second, there was a sharp-but-partial rebound off the lows in May. Third, improvement after the initial rebound will slow, barring a vaccine or effective treatment for COVID-19...
In her recent book, “The Deficit Myth,” Stephanie Kelton, a professor at Stony Brook University, writes about many of the common misperceptions surrounding government debt and deficits.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has formally declared that a recession began in February. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest on record (at least back to 1854). Economic data reports should suggest that the downturn may have ended in April. That doesn’t mean everything is okay.
Equities suffered a heavy single-day decline amid rising jobless claims and continued coronavirus concerns.
Stock market participants remained optimistic about the economy, further encouraged by a surprisingly strong employment report for May. Bond yields moved above their recent range.
In contrast to expectations of further deterioration, the May Employment Report suggested significant improvement in labor market conditions. No doubt, the economy has turned the corner as states have re-opened.
U.S. equity growth has been led by companies benefiting from heavy exposure to technology and an increase in remote work.
With state economies opening up, activity is expected to pick up the final two months of 2Q20. Real-time indicators show improvement. However, the figures for April are consistent with a sharp contraction in 2Q20, which won’t come close to being offset by May and June.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that all 50 states experienced a decrease in payrolls and an increase in unemployment in April.
The stock market was choppy as investors bounced between hopes for a successful reopening of the economy and fears of a more prolonged slowdown.
In his May 13 webcast on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone. That mood was reinforced by the economic data reports that followed. The economic outlook depends on the virus and efforts to contain it. There’s hope that monetary and fiscal support will carry us through and the virus will be checked.
After a significant recovery from March lows, coronavirus-driven fluctuations have reappeared in equity markets.
The April Employment Report was flawed, reflecting issues with data collection, classification, and methodology. However, results were consistent with an unprecedented, sharp deterioration in labor market conditions, mostly at the lower rungs. Payrolls fell by more than 20 million, nearly erasing the number of jobs gained since the financial crisis.
The April Employment Report was flawed, but signaled a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 20.5 million, nearly erasing all of the job gains since the last recession.
In recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in claims for unemployment benefits pointed to a horrific economic impact from COVID-19. That sinking feeling has been reinforced by the major economic releases, which have shown a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March – enough to substantially weaken the first quarter as a whole.
All three major U.S. equity indices saw double-digit recovery in April, though most levels are still far from pre-coronavirus highs.
COVID-19 has affected the data collection process for the major economic reports, including employment, consumer prices, retail sales, and industrial production. However, the incoming economic figures imply a stunningly swift, sharp decline in economic activity.
The broad range of economic data signal that a recession began in March. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the total of final goods and services produced in our economy) is expected to have fallen in the advance estimate for 1Q20. The 2Q20 figures will show an unprecedented decline in activity.
Lawmakers, business leaders and healthcare professionals around the country are searching for solutions to curtail the spread of COVID-19 and reopen the U.S. economy.
Economic data reports are generally backward-looking. There’s a lot of noise, reflecting statistical uncertainty and seasonal adjustment difficulties. Reports for March 2020 present a greater challenge.
Though it may not feel like it, the S&P 500 index just experienced its strongest 16-day period since 1938.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 6.61 million in the week ending April 4, down from 6.87 million in the week before. Prior to seasonal adjustment, 15.1 million people have filed claims in the past three weeks – that’s 9.2% of the labor force – and the figures understate the degree of job losses (as not every laid-off worker can file a claim).
For the most part, assessments of the economic impact of COVID-19 have been more qualitative than quantitative. Data reports are backward-looking and often distorted. However, in recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in jobless claims has helped us to begin assessing the economic damage from social distancing.
Although the full extent of the economic impact from COVID-19 and social distancing measures remains uncertain, some things appear to be taking shape.
There’s always a story behind the economic data. The Employment Report understated the labor market deterioration in March, while seasonal adjustment amplified the level of job losses in the first half of the month. More importantly, claims for unemployment benefits doubled from the astronomical level of a week earlier.
To say that a lot has changed in the last month is a tremendous understatement. The markets are playing a weak supporting role to the worst healthcare challenge in our generation, as well as the worst economic problem since 2008.
The economic impact of COVID-19 has been shockingly large and swift, but most of the information has been anecdotal. Economic data reports are by their nature backward-looking. However, the latest unemployment claim figure and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index point to a sharp contraction in economic activity.
Lawmakers in Washington struck a compromise on a major fiscal stimulus package to help combat the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The bill, already passed by the Senate and awaiting House vote, packs in a lot, with upward of $2 trillion slated to provide important support for the economy.
In recent weeks, COVID-19 has led to escalating economic concerns. What started as a seemingly sharp, but likely temporary, reduction in Chinese activity, including disruptions to global supply chains, became more worrisome as the coronavirus moved to the rest of the world.
In recent weeks, we’ve seen economic concerns about COVID-19 moving from supply chain disruptions, to expectations of softer global growth, to fear of the impact from social distancing. The odds of a recession have been rising day by day. Some economists believe that we’re already in one.
The markets seem to be vacillating between concerns for the extent of economic damage and hopes the federal government will intervene to stimulate the economy or support certain businesses affected most by the spread of the coronavirus.
COVID-19 fears continued to drive the financial markets. Share prices were volatile and bond yields dove further into record lows.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates by .50% in preparation for potential coronavirus impacts.
Equities have fallen on continued news of the virus’ spread, and bonds have rallied as investors seek safety.
As coronavirus cases continue to escalate in several new regions, like South Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran, Singapore and the United States, Raymond James Healthcare Policy Analyst Chris Meekins believes we are now in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic. The word itself isn’t intended to cause panic, but rather to prompt increased awareness of the potential economic and health effects of this rapidly spreading virus.
Once again, China adjusted the criteria for recognizing COVID-19 cases (over 76,000 reported cases as of February 21, with 2,248 deaths). The immediate direct impact on the global economy is through supply chain disruptions and reduced travel/tourism (in China and throughout Southeast Asia).
The economy was mixed in 2019. Consumer spending, while uneven, was relatively strong, supported by solid fundamentals. Business fixed investment and manufacturing were weak, but not “recessionary weak.” January data are to be taken with a grain of salt – seasonal adjustment is huge and weather (good or bad) can exaggerate – but figures point to more of the same.
The spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 appeared to be slowing, but adjustments in the criteria for recognizing cases changed, boosting the reported number of infections. The change increased anxiety and uncertainty about the economic impact.
The January Employment Report remained consistent with the broader range of labor market indicators. Job conditions are tight. Wage growth has picked up relative to a few years ago, but is not particularly high by historical standards. Thus, the Fed is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady in the near term.
With U.S. growth anticipated to be moderate this year, little was expected in the way of fiscal policy (taxes, government spending) and monetary policy (short-term interest rates), but life comes at you fast.
Trade policy uncertainty, slower global growth, a decrease in energy exploration, and problems at Boeing had a negative impact on business fixed investment in 2019. So what’s different in 2020?
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.
Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions.
Job growth slowed last year, partly reflecting a tighter job market. However, wage growth, while higher in 2019, has remained moderate, much lower than one would expect given the low unemployment rate.
A year ago, the baseline scenario for the economy was moderate growth, but with an elevated level on uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside. Trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth were dampening factors, but Fed policy was supportive. Investors were willing to look beyond the uncertainty.
Investor optimism remained strong in the first day of trading 2020, but news that the US. Military had assassinated an Iranian general sent share prices lower. The price of oil rose and bond yields fell in response to heightened uncertainty.