Vanguard’s Top Strategist’s Outlook for the Economy and Credit Markets
Anne N. Mathias is a senior strategist for Vanguard and a member of the firm's Fixed Income Group, with a focus on global macroeconomics, interest rates, and foreign currency. I spoke with her about the outlook for the economy and the credit markets.
Gundlach: Markets Like Split Government, But Equities are “Really Overvalued”
Reflecting on the post-election landscape, Jeffrey Gundlach expects a split government to emerge, with a Biden presidency, Democratic House and Republican Senate. That outcome explains the gains in U.S. equities this week, but stocks are now “really overvalued.”
Gundlach Predicts Trump Victory; David Rosenberg Not So Sure
Jeffrey Gundlach, who famously predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, says the president will secure another term. David Rosenberg acknowledged that possibility, but is not so sure of the outcome. Both offered their predictions for the post-election economy and markets.
Jeremy Grantham: The Market Bubble Will Burst in Weeks or Months
Jeremy Grantham has made a science of studying asset bubbles, correctly predicting the path of the Japanese, dot-com and housing overvaluations. Today’s bubble in U.S. equities is unlike any other, he says, but it will burst in months, if not weeks.
Thematic ETFs for Right Now
As devastating and disruptive as the pandemic has been for so many, it has also shined light on the industries and sectors that are best poised to innovate and keep our markets moving. From biotech to cybersecurity to AI and Robotics to Semiconductors and more, thematic tech ETFs are some of the best performing funds of the year. These groupings of industry-related securities are an effective way to gain exposure to companies in particular industries with growth potential. Learn how thematic tech ETFs may fit into your clients' portfolios from some of the biggest names in the business.
A Q&A With Bob Veres on the Future of the Advisory Profession
As we all navigate a crisis that’s dramatically changed our lives, one of the best-known commentators on the advisory profession takes a longer view on what it will take for your business to not just survive — but thrive. In an informative Q&A with Bob Huebscher, Veres will explore the many transitions facing advisors and offer advice on building deeper connections in a world where every other advisor can be your competitor.
Responsible Alpha® in a Changing World: Innovation as the Cornerstone of Positive Societal Change
Uncertainty. There is plenty. Climate change, human rights and social justice, and (of course) the coronavirus pandemic, are just a few of the sources of uncertainty today. COVID-19 has disrupted the way we work. Advances in healthcare are improving both outcomes and access. Social justice issues are evolving behavioral norms. Broader access to the internet has changed the way we connect and will continue to do so.
From the environment to social justice reform to healthcare improvements, small-cap companies lead the charge through innovation that can truly change the world. Please join expert small-cap growth portfolio manager Granahan Investment Management as they discuss how companies in their portfolios have an eye on transforming our tomorrows.
A Q&A With David Rosenberg: The Road Ahead For Investors
With the U.S. election nearing and economies around the world still grappling with the effects of the pandemic, investors need to weigh the latest developments carefully. Join David Rosenberg, one of the world’s best-known economists and investment strategists, for a Q&A with AP CEO Robert Huebscher in a far-reaching discussion on the markets, economics and politics. CFP and IWI CE credits pending.
An Outstanding Hedged-Equity Fund
The Absolute Capital Opportunities Fund (CAPOX) uses a flexible approach to value investing. It is sub-advised by a team at Chicago-based Kovitz, led by Mark C. Rosland and Joel D. Hirsh. As of May 31st, 2020 its cumulative return was 29.49% versus 1.03% for the HFRX equity hedge index.
Gundlach – Trump will Defeat Biden; Avoid the Bond Market
Jeffrey Gundlach, who famously predicted Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, said that the president will defeat the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, in November. He also dimmed the expectations of fixed-income investors when he said to avoid short- and long-term bonds.
Why Defined-Outcome Products are Dominating ETF Flows
Bruce Bond is co-founder and CEO of Innovator Capital Management. Having cofounded PowerShares Capital Management in 2003, he is recognized as one of the pioneers of the ETF industry. I spoke with him about the explosive growth in flows to defined-outcome ETFs.
Southeastern: The Exceptional Opportunity in Small-Cap Value
On April 9, Memphis-based Southeastern Asset Management announced that it was re-opening its Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund (LLSCX). It had closed the fund to new investors in August 1997. I interviewed two of the fund’s managers, Staley Cates and Ross Glotzbach.
Neil Howe – The Pandemic and the Fourth Turning
Neil Howe foresaw a global crisis that would upend society. He didn’t know it would be a pandemic, but, throughout his career, he has been predicting a “fourth turning” – an event that would reshape societal norms and usher in a new generation of leaders.
Tweedy, Browne – Why Value Investing Will Continue to Thrive
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the renowned investment firm Tweedy Browne. The firm was originally a broker, and one of its clients was Benjamin Graham. I interviewed six members of Tweedy, Browne’s investment committee.
Robert Shiller: “Not Much of a Sell Signal” for U.S. Stocks
The conventional wisdom is that U.S. stocks are overvalued and the only uncertainty is the timing of the inevitable correction. But Robert Shiller says his CAPE ratio, when considered alongside low bond yields, is not giving “much of a sell signal” for U.S. stocks.
Humility and Patience: Understanding the Long-Term Outperformance of the First Eagle Overseas Fund
The First Eagle Overseas fund (SGOVX) has an exceptional 27-year history. Since its inception, it has returned 9.15% versus 4.03% for the MSCI EAFE index. It was originally managed by the legendary Jean-Marie Eveillard. I spoke with its current management team about how the fund has performed during the coronavirus crisis and why financial professionals should look to diversify outside the U.S. markets.
The Science Behind Multi-Factor Strategies
The last decade has been a painful one for investors who believe in a factor-based approach to investing and have stuck with those factors that have historically performed well, namely the value factor. But a breed of products have avoided the plight. ETFs that were designed to be nimble and allocate across a range of factors have not suffered the same performance deficit.
A Revolutionary Approach to Fixed Income Management
Sonal Desai, PH.D., is executive vice president and chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, as well a portfolio manager for a number of strategies. In this interview, she discusses the unique investment strategy she has developed, as well as the key risks – specifically the coronavirus – facing investors.
How to Generate Income with Downside Protection
Margaret Farquharson is a senior director with the Nationwide Funds Group and leads its exchange traded fund business, where she has oversight for all aspects of the business including product development, product management, marketing, distribution, and operations.
Northern Trust – It’s Dangerous to be Prematurely Cautious
Bob Browne is the chief investment officer of Northern Trust Asset Management, which has more than $900 billion in assets. He chairs the firm's investment policy committee, which sets investment policy for all Northern Trust groups. In this interview, he discusses his views on the global economy and markets.
The Keys to Advising Women Over Age 50
Jan Blakeley Holman is the director of advisor education for Thornburg Investment Management. As a speaker and author, Jan draws on four decades in the business, first as an advisor, then as a financial services industry executive and now as an advisor to advisors. She has unique expertise in working with women clients and often teaches advisors how to speak with women about managing their wealth.
Gundlach’s Forecast for 2020
Expect a steeper yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should be “defensive” with respect to long-term bonds. Gold will go up, inflation will be subdued, there is a 30% to 35% chance of recession and – his “highest conviction” idea – the dollar will weaken. His most surprising prediction was who will be the Democratic nominee.
Our Top 10 Most-Read Commentaries of 2019
Over the course of the past year, we published approximately 2,000 investment and economic commentaries from the most prominent and respected asset managers and analysts. Below are the 10 most widely read, starting with the year’s most popular commentary.
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Why Banks are Undervalued
David Ellison manages the Hennessy Large Cap Financial Fund (HLFNX) and the Small Cap Financial Fund (HSFNX), both of which have outperformed their benchmarks since their inception in 1997. Dave has been recognized by Morningstar as the most tenured mutual fund portfolio manager in the financial services sector. I spoke with Dave on December 12.
Three Highlights from the MarketCounsel Summit
MarketCounsel’s Summit, held earlier this week in Miami, lived up to its reputation as the “all-star game” of financial advisor conferences, attracting top-level executives from throughout the investment industry. Here are three highlights from Tuesday’s sessions.
The Fund That Isn’t Following the ESG/SRI Herd
In the U.S., between one quarter and one third of all assets managed are done so with an ESG or SRI mandate. Outside the U.S., that percentage is even higher. The Vitium Global Fund, formerly the Vice Fund, buys what most ESG/SRI investors scorn, stocks in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and aerospace/defense industries.