Gundlach’s Forecast for 2020
Expect a steeper yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. Investors should be “defensive” with respect to long-term bonds. Gold will go up, inflation will be subdued, there is a 30% to 35% chance of recession and – his “highest conviction” idea – the dollar will weaken. His most surprising prediction was who will be the Democratic nominee.
Our Top 10 Most-Read Commentaries of 2019
Over the course of the past year, we published approximately 2,000 investment and economic commentaries from the most prominent and respected asset managers and analysts. Below are the 10 most widely read, starting with the year’s most popular commentary.
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Why Banks are Undervalued
David Ellison manages the Hennessy Large Cap Financial Fund (HLFNX) and the Small Cap Financial Fund (HSFNX), both of which have outperformed their benchmarks since their inception in 1997. Dave has been recognized by Morningstar as the most tenured mutual fund portfolio manager in the financial services sector. I spoke with Dave on December 12.
Three Highlights from the MarketCounsel Summit
MarketCounsel’s Summit, held earlier this week in Miami, lived up to its reputation as the “all-star game” of financial advisor conferences, attracting top-level executives from throughout the investment industry. Here are three highlights from Tuesday’s sessions.
The Fund That Isn’t Following the ESG/SRI Herd
In the U.S., between one quarter and one third of all assets managed are done so with an ESG or SRI mandate. Outside the U.S., that percentage is even higher. The Vitium Global Fund, formerly the Vice Fund, buys what most ESG/SRI investors scorn, stocks in the tobacco, alcoholic beverage, gaming and aerospace/defense industries.
Gundlach on the Biggest Risk Facing Bond Investors and the Likely Next President
Fear among bond investors is focused on rising rates, but Jeffrey Gundlach says you should worry about something more sinister. In his webcast yesterday, he also offered his updated 2020 presidential election prediction.
Nicholas Burns on Healing the Political Divide
American history teaches that we can rise above our deep political divide, according to Nicholas Burns. The U.S. rose to independence based on the “power of ideas,” he said. Lincoln put the country together after a divide far deeper than what we face today, and FDR led the country to victory in its most difficult war. Those challenges were infinitely more difficult than what we face now, Burns said.
Greg Valliere: What the Last 48 Hours Means for Trump
News from the last 48 hours had a significant impact on the chances President Trump will be reelected, according to Greg Valliere. Moreover, although Valliere doesn’t expect the impeachment proceedings to end in Trump’s conviction, there are two scenarios that could change that outcome.
Are Your Clients Ready for Higher Inflation?
For most of the last 20 years, advisors could safely ignore inflation and the risks it poses to their clients’ fixed-income holdings and earning power. But inflation is too dangerous a risk to disregard. What are the chances of an upward spike in inflation and what would that mean for clients?
How Charitable Giving Deepens Client Relationships and Grows Assets
Kim Laughton is president of Schwab Charitable, a national donor-advised fund. In this interview, she discusses how advisors can integrate charitable planning into client discussions and use it as a tool to expand and deepen relationships.
Where the Davis Funds is Finding Great Opportunities
Chris Davis is chairman of Davis Advisors, a firm founded by his father that has followed the same value-investing discipline for its 50-year history. In this interview, Chris discusses the exceptional opportunities he is finding among the financial stocks, how financial advisors can add the greatest value and the biggest changes he has seen over his career.
First Eagle: The Timeless Advantage of Value Investing
The First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX) reflects the teachings of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. In this interview, the three managers of the fund discuss a number of topics, including why they hold a large position in gold, why the market will favor value investors on a long-term basis and their views of ESG investing in the context of the companies they own.
Richard Clarida Explains the “Great Repo Fiasco”
The U.S. economy is in a “good place” and the baseline outlook is “favorable,” according to Richard Clarida. To further allay fears, he called the much-discussed September 17 action by the Fed in the repo market a “technical, central bank 101 operation, not to be conflated with large-scale QE operations.”
A Top Bond Manager Explains His Bottom-up Approach
Lon Erickson, CFA, is a portfolio manager and managing director for Thornburg Investment Management and oversees five of its fixed income mutual funds. Erickson says that rates could be as low as 1.1% in the next year, and he explains why a collaborative, bottom-up construction process will benefit advisors and their clients.
Gundlach: Fed will be in "Panic Mode" When a Recession Hits
If the signs of a recession prove true, the Fed will be in panic mode, according to Jeffrey Gundlach. The economy will weaken, rates will go up and the Fed will have to “do something,” to protect against a “spiral” of higher rates feeding and slower growth.
Strategies for the Challenges of Longevity – Maximizing Your Social Security Benefits
There are many retirement risks, such as: stock market performance, inflation, a volatile regulatory environment, the deterioration of good health, withdrawal timing and the need for long-term care. All have the potential to wreak havoc on retirement savings, but one risk could be more significant than the rest, Longevity.
A Way to Build Customized ESG Portfolios for Clients
A barrier to ESG and SRI adoption is the one-size-fits-all approach inherent in mutual funds and ETFs. But a new solution allows advisors to create SMAs that are customized based on each of your clients’ values, needs and preferences.
Advisor Perspectives to Market Big Picture® Charts and App
Advisor Perspectives will be the exclusive marketing agent for Investments Illustrated’s products, the Big Picture © Chart and App. Advisor Perspectives will offer these products to its audience of nearly a half million professionals in the financial advisory industry.
Simon Sinek: How to Deal With "Toxic" Team Members
A high-performing employee with low trust is a “toxic” team member, according to Simon Sinek. You are better off with someone who inspires high trust, even if they are just a mediocre performer. The challenge is helping those who lack it build the trust they need to succeed.
What Technical Analysis Says About US Stocks
Technical analysis is built on the idea that markets and securities are actionable through analysis of historical trends. No firm has been as dominant and successful in the field of technical analysis that Dorsey Wright, the 30-year old Virginia-based firm that is now part of Nasdaq.
Want to Create an ETF? Here’s How
A white label approach streamlines the ETF launching process, by using filings and approvals that are already in place with the SEC
Where is the Economy and the Bond Market Headed?
After the tumult of Q4 2018, investors deserved an easy quarter, and they got it. The Q4 trends of falling rates and rising economic concerns continued. But risk assets, like stocks and non-government fixed income spread products, pulled out of their nose dives with strong performances in Q1 2019. As we look ahead to the remainder of this year, what should bond investors expect?
Why Advisors Often Sacrifice Value in Muni Bonds
If there is one asset class where advisors have taken a do-it-yourself approach, it is municipal bonds. Advisors and their clients often buy individual muni bonds and hold them until maturity. But the muni market is very broad, diverse and complex – and those are the ingredients that favor professional management.
The Key Risks Facing Bond Investors
Recessionary fears have subsided and all signs are that the global economy has stabilized, albeit at a less-than-desired growth rate. But risks abound – tariffs on Chinese goods that could trigger a trade war, Brexit negotiations, rising oil prices and a possible Fed rate hike.
What to Watch Out for When Outsourcing Investment Management
Ever since the growth of robo advisors began to accelerate nearly a decade ago, the dominant trend facing advisors has been the commoditization of investment advice. With the proliferation of high-quality, low-cost investment solutions, advisors have increasingly outsourced their investing, freeing up valuable resources to help clients in other ways. But that doesn’t mean that all outsourced solutions are created equal or that advisors cannot add value through the investment choices that are made on behalf of their clients. Here’s what advisors need to know when choosing an outsourcing solution.
How Leading Advisors Select Technology Solutions
The most successful advisory firms are building their technology framework around their optimal client and the experience they want to deliver to that client. What’s most important when designing an experience is considering how it adds value to the advisor-client relationship.
A Top-Performinng Asia Value Fund
Value investors have fared poorly over the last decade, as traditional value indices have trailed their corresponding growth counterparts. But that doesn’t mean that all value funds have done poorly. Indeed, one notable exception has been the Matthews Asia Value Fund (MAVRX).
The Role of Alternative Investments
With equity valuations at elevated levels, subdued economic growth due to changing demographics and stubbornly low productivity gains, as well as a bleak outlook for fixed income, advisors are challenged to rethink foundational portfolio elements of investor portfolios—which means seeking out strategies that bolster the core going forward.
The Failure of Conventional Financial Planning
There are three legs to the retirement problem: determining an appropriate savings and spending plan, having the right amount of insurance, and constructing an appropriate portfolio. Achieving those three goals and smoothing consumption, especially during the critical period just before and after retirement, is a complex and computationally intensive undertaking.
Achieving Financial Wellness
- American investors are confronted by accelerating complexity, sub-par returns and minimal coordination between their assets, investment strategies and underlying liabilities. When one considers that millions of investors struggle with the same challenges, you realize that America’s multi-trillion-dollar personal savings market is plagued by systemic inefficiency.
What to Expect from Envestnet and MoneyGuide
Nearly two million financial plans were created in the last year using MoneyGuidePro. The two individuals who are charged with overseeing the success of the acquisition of PIETech, the parent company of MoneyGuide Pro, discuss what that means for their clients.
How Should Advisors Evaluate Model Portfolios?
As advisors have expanded their suite of financial planning services and sought new ways to add value to their client relationships, they have also committed to solutions to streamline their investment management. One of those solutions is a model portfolio, which consist of allocations to a group of mutual funds that meet the goals and risk tolerances of their clients.
Understanding Multifactor Portfolios
While there are many ways to gain individual exposure to the value, size, quality, momentum and low volatility factors, multifactor strategies combine exposure to all of them. Choosing the right one for client portfolios is incredibly difficult.
Beyond Traditional Asset Management
- The traditional role of asset managers has been limited to investment management, which is understandable considering the challenge of consistently delivering superior returns. While many asset managers provide resources and education to advisors, rarely do they make that part of their core mission.