During a trying time for the world in 1939, Winston Churchill famously described the largest country in the world and soon-to-be second superpower, the Soviet Union, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
The pristine surface of a lake on a perfectly calm and sunny day is easy on the eyes. Yet it usually offers no insight as to what lies beneath.
In 1974, U.S. President Gerald Ford took office “amidst one of the worst economic crises in U.S. history,” which was characterized by double digit inflation.
“You can't always get what you wantBut if you try sometimes, well, you might findYou get what you need”“You Can’t Always Get What You Want,” The Rolling Stones (Let It Bleed, 1969)
A flexible bond strategy can deliver strong performance with low volatility by diversifying across global markets.
Is it possible to travel in two directions at the same time? Imagine walking to the restroom at the back of an airplane while in mid-flight.
The Queen’s Gambit miniseries helped propel Netflix to a winning earnings report last quarter, but in fact the chess strategy it is named after has helped propel chess players to winning games for decades.
Rick Rieder and team think that today’s potent policy cocktail holds important implications for the path of economic growth, markets and the value of a dollar.
Inflation will likely heat up in the coming months, but not to worrying levels.
Rick Rieder and team describe how revolutionary changes taking place in corporate business models will impact investing for years.
Uncertainty around additional stimulus stirs up the market.
Rick Rieder and team highlight the critical facts that will drive the markets in the year ahead, as well as the myths that could mislead investors.
Even as markets were rocked by uncertainty as the coronavirus lockdowns began, the seeds of stability were sown in the massive fiscal and monetary policy response.
Compelling economic data and a dovish Fed drove risk assets higher in August.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that in the tug-of-war between the considerable economic damage stemming from the coronavirus and subsequent lockdowns, and the fiscal and monetary policy responses put in place, the latter factor is being underestimated by markets. Further, the instruments used by investors in previous years won’t be what’s required for the time ahead.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Navin Saigal contend that if a negative monetary policy endgame is to be avoided, particularly in the face of recent economic declines, it will likely be technological advances of a profound kind that get us there.
Rick Rieder and Jacob Caplain contend that with profound uncertainties still present in the economy and markets, and the dislocations witnessed in many market segments in the past couple months, investors don’t need to resort to lower-quality assets. In fact, to achieve potentially attractive returns, higher-quality spread assets can serve quite well.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that even as markets were rocked by uncertainty as the coronavirus lockdowns began, the seeds of stability were sown in the massive fiscal and monetary policy response. The key is to know how to manage through this period for the long haul.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that even as markets are gripped with the trauma of wild swings, and continued uncertainties, the seeds of future investment opportunity are being sown.
BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team weighs in on recent Federal Reserve policy moves and what they might mean for markets.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that eight major market influences are likely to dominate the investment environment in the year ahead and that the proper portfolio mix will be instrumental in delivering a successful outcome.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their theme of “1.8.”
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that – in contrast to the past decade of monetary policy lifting all economic boats at once – the years ahead are likely to be characterized by great dispersion between economies, industries and markets. Understanding that dynamic will be the name of the game for investment success.
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that much of the recent criticism brought to bear against Fed policy makers is misguided, and in fact the central bank has done an admirable job of pivoting toward a pragmatic equilibrium in recent months.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight their view that effective monetary and fiscal policy in the 21st Century needs to draw not only traditional economic theory, but also from the lessons of finance and other disciplines.
Rick Rieder highlights the economic policy state-of-play today, and where it may lead to should economic growth falter, productivity not materialize, and populism continue to thrive.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight the investment themes that they think will drive markets and dominate debate within the investment community over the next several months and beyond.
Rick Rieder argues that anemic growth in Europe is a longstanding problem that today requires a bold solution. Institutionally, the ECB can offer potentially effective, if unconventional, help.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that while most investors are focusing primarily on trade-related supply chain disruptions today, they need to continue to situate this turmoil in the more fundamental changes at play in technology and demographic trends.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that there’s little benefit to “trading the news” today, as prices adjust instantly to highly-transparent information. Rather, investors would do well to follow long-term cash flows, of which the lion’s share is to be found in tech.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that despite the market turbulence witnessed in the past several months, as well as a dramatic policy reversal, we find ourselves at a moment of remarkable economic stability. That fact, along with greater policy accommodation and capacity, argues for healthy and sensible risk taking.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that as the conventional wisdom in policy and investment circles surrounding prospects for growth and inflation have shifted in 2019, so too have investment opportunities.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that an evolving policy stance at the Fed is altering the risk/reward calculus for investors this year, although left-tail risks remain.
Rick Rieder argues that the Fed’s price stability mandate has been fulfilled and that today’s drivers of inflation…
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that slowing growth, peaking inflation and tightening financial conditions combine to make a strong case for a Fed policy rate hiking pause in early 2019.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Rieder argues that wage growth doesn’t lead to higher inflation, and in fact may even hold a dampening impact on inflation over time, which has important implications for how to judge monetary policy today.
Rieder and Brownback argue that monetary policy restrictiveness, fading fiscal stimulus, and growing economic uncertainties leave markets more vulnerable today, and these risks are not to be toyed with.
Rieder and Brownback argue that today investors are confronted by massive shifts in the nature of the economy, alongside cyclical and policy uncertainties; making sense of it all is critically important.
Rieder and Brownback argue that as we depart the era of QE, where rising tides lifted all boats, the income component of total return becomes ever more vital to investor prospects.
Rieder and Brownback argue that today’s investment environment, like a well-fought chess match, holds great complexity; understanding it is vital for investors.
Rieder and Brownback discuss how cyclical turning points result in market friction, even with solid growth, presenting the Fed with two potential paths.
Rick and Russ on the new volatility regime, why risk is being misapprehended, and how to navigate these new challenges.
Rick and Russ argue that the recently enacted U.S. tax cut and an evolving monetary policy backdrop provides both greater clarity on expected increases in volatility and underscores the need to remain flexible and opportunistic in allocation.
Amid the seemingly endless noise that poses as news, Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback focus in on three of the most critical themes that investors need to consider for 2018.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback examine the more volatile cyclical dynamics we’re likely to encounter in 2018, even as the secular risk-asset bull market remains in place.
Rick and Jacob examine why 2017 provides a seemingly unlikely source of evidence for the effectiveness of an active approach to fixed income.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that while cramming for finals may have worked in college, it won’t with the winding down of the global central bank policy liquidity “semester.”
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback, from the BlackRock Fundamental Fixed Income Team, look to the investment lessons that can be derived from Super Bowl 51 odds making, and particularly that when judged appropriately, prices can contain more valuable information than does “the news.”
Rick Rieder explains the economic implications of “the Amazon effect.”