Coronavirus is a global pandemic that few if any could have predicted, but it’s deteriorating fundamentals throughout 2019 into 2020 that set the table for the recent extreme market volatility. Now that volatility has clearly arrived, what‘s the strategy when black swans swim?
Every instance of financial speculation today is termed a “bubble”, but true financial bubbles are rarer than most investors believe and they go beyond the financial markets and pervade society.
Throughout this 10-year bull market, investors have been overly cautious toward equity markets and ignored “new highs”. Now in this late-cycle market environment, investors are piling into cyclicality, private equity and venture capital. It’s time to stop saying everyone is so bearish.
Smoke detectors and fire extinguishers are critical safety devices. But investors in every cycle ignore the markets’ warning signals regarding risk. Rather than ignore the warnings, we are dusting off and priming the traditional portfolio “fire extinguishers”.
Today’s markets are experiencing decreasing liquidity amid increasing volatility. To stay ahead, investors must adapt their strategies to the ever changing market environment and learn to invest like a chameleon.
Unprecedented market uncertainty is leading many investors to focus on the markets more than ever, but are they focusing on the right things? For our annual August report, Charts for the Beach, we highlight 5 charts that consensus is currently overlooking.
All too frequently investors use the rear-view mirror to determine an investment’s attractiveness. An upward sloping price chart often automatically makes a stock more attractive. Recent performance helps determine a “good” manager. Past interest rate movements can cause changes to bond portfolio duration.
One wayward tweet can send the markets spiraling in the short term, but RBA knows that in the long term, profits determine the direction of the markets, not politics.
Investors remain fixated on longer-duration bonds even as their risk increases. Duration is a measure of risk and myopically focusing on the long end of the curve while it appears to be significantly overvalued may prove fruitless.
Investors have remained on the sidelines for most of this 10+ year bull market, yet FOMO is leading many to join the party late. In this late cycle environment, one should consider sobering up before the punch bowl is taken away.
Investors’ current enthusiasm for piling money into next great tech unicorn is ominously reminiscent of March 2000. Might we be doomed to repeat the Tech Bubble?
The Fed’s constant balancing act between easing and tightening monetary policy is intended to influence banks’ lending habits, but as the old axiom goes; you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it lend.
We think it’s better to position our portfolios based on 2019 fundamentals than structuring them by looking backward at December 2018’s volatility.
Public policy can be corporate-friendly or corporate-unfriendly. But what if it’s corporate-uncertain? Then investors are faced with volatility. Part I of our Year Ahead investigates the current corporate-uncertain environment.
The US government’s debt problem isn’t new. It has been steadily growing for nearly 40 years, and growing interest expense has secularly weighed down domestic economic growth. Why has this happened and how do we fix it?
Most investors purchase insurance for their homes, vehicles and health, but rarely expand the practice to their investment portfolios. At RBA, we diversify our portfolios using negatively correlated asset classes, but just like insurance, it comes with a premium.
Investors seem overly concerned about equity market volatility, but ignore the growing risks in fixed-income and seem oblivious to the bonds’ already multi-year underperformance. One might say they are looking for risk in all the wrong places.
Don’t leave home without your summer essentials: sunglasses, sunscreen, towel and RBA’s Charts for the beach.
Investors appear to remain oblivious to how high inflation already is in the US relative to inflation rates around the world. With Washington DC policy overtly pro-inflation, investors need to be positioned for the overheating ahead.
Investing based on short term-market gyrations and noise from the 24/7 business news cycle rarely drives alpha. At RBA, we’d rather invest dispassionately based on market fundamentals and focus on longer time horizons. Remember to ignore the Tweet and invest for the meat.
When the Fed instituted ZIRP, investors were overenthusiastic to invest in the next great Unicorn. Now that rates are rising and money is no longer free, investors are beginning to realize that rational investing and positive cash flows trump hype and speculation.
Many income-oriented investors may not be appropriately positioned for the current market environment, with increasing inflation and looming tariffs poised to lead to significant underperformance.
Successful investing in this cycle has depended largely on following the business cycle and ignoring the myriad of fears. As the economy enters a late-cycle phase, investors need to recognize the characteristics of a late-cycle environment and how to accordingly position portfolios.
In the 9th year of this bull market, investors remain overweight bonds in an environment poised to drastically limit fixed income returns. It’s time to avoid bonds’ day of reckoning.
2017 turned out to be a better year for the stock market than most investors surmised. For 2018, we yet again see investors avoiding one of the longest post-war bull markets in history and continuing to ignore the fundamentals driving markets higher.
While Tech remains one of RBA’s largest overweight sectors in our portfolios, one thing to consider is the sector’s dirty little secret: it’s really a deep cyclical.
2008 may have generationally scarred investor psychology. As a result, many continue to disavow the current bull market and instead heed warnings of an impending bear market. We argue that fundamentals remain strong and the global equity markets are rife with opportunity.
Many investors no longer view the US as the global safe haven to turn to during bouts of volatility. We argue that US and global fundamentals remain strong, however, many global investors seem to be losing religion.
It’s time again for RBA’s annual ‘Charts for the beach,’ where we highlight what consensus is currently missing.
Investing based on headlines and political promises is rarely beneficial to one’s portfolio. It’s dispassionately investing for fundamentals that continue to drive the markets.
Many investors seem to be stuck in the middle of the false dichotomy between active and passive investing. At RBA, we argue it’s much more important for investors to ascertain which active or passive portfolio to buy and when to own it.
Political rhetoric may make it seem that the end is nigh, however, it’s fundamentals, not fear that will benefit your portfolio.
Many investors believe that November 8th was the catalyst for recent market performance, however, fundamentals began improving much earlier. Remember, it’s profits, not politics that matters.
Historical studies show individual investors are very poor asset allocators, and are undoubtedly no better at selecting ETFs. At RBA, our Pactive® Management portfolios combine the benefits of low-fee, transparent and liquid passive investments with RBA’s asset allocation expertise.
ETFs continue to play a highly disruptive role in money management. RBA has embraced this trend by employing what we refer to as Pactive™ Management, which is the active allocation, whether strategic or tactical, of passive investment instruments such as ETFs, stock baskets, and index funds. These Pactive™ portfolios have quickly become the fastest growing part of our business.
While many investors ascribe recent market performance solely to a post-election surprise, we argue that there’s a simpler explanation. Remember, it’s checkers not chess.
2017 is all about inflation. As many investors hold onto the notion of “lower for longer”, we recognize that re-inflation will likely take hold in the New Year and those positioned for an improving global economy will benefit.
Fears of a repeat 2008 bear market are causing many investors to remain wallflowers during the second longest bull market of the post-war period. We argue, this fear is unfounded and the opportunity cost of avoiding equities keeps growing and growing.
Bears might blame the bull market on the Fed, but it’s improving fundamentals that keep it on course. It ain’t just the Fed.