Effective vaccines, historic fiscal stimulus, Democratic Party control of the legislature, even more stimulus, reopening economies, 6% U.S. real GDP (gross domestic product) growth, 25% U.S. EPS (earnings per share) growth, and maybe even an infrastructure plan sprinkled on top.
We believe that the recently announced U.S. stimulus deal reinforces the positive economic outlook for 2021. Here's why.
Key takeaways for investors amid the tightening race for the White House and control of the Senate.
Five companies now comprise 26% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500® Index, making for the most concentrated U.S. equity market in the last 40 years. What are the potential dangers of this for investors?
Potential for a large payoff on value strategies may exist soon, if history is any guide.
With a very healthy dose of humility, let’s take a look at what a reopening of the global economy may look like.
Global equity index futures are trading up about 4% this morning. The coronavirus data over the weekend was less bad. The growth rate in new confirmed cases over the last 24 hours globally was the lowest since March 17—a welcome sign that containment measures are gaining some traction in slowing the spread of the disease.
As the world continues to grapple with the coronavirus, some areas of the market are showing signs of incremental improvement.
The U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled a series of significant policy measures to help sustain the economy.
Amid ongoing market chop, more positive signs are emerging from policymakers and central banks as efforts to soften the economic damage caused by the coronavirus continue.
One of the keys to the outlook here is the ability of businesses to get to the other side of potentially acute short-term cash flow problems. Fiscal policy holds the necessary antidotes in its ability to provide targeted, material support to impacted sectors.
Our outlook for interest rates, assessed through our investing framework of cycle, valuation and sentiment.
Markets around the world are tumbling on fears that the coronavirus could significantly derail global economic growth.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) cut interest rates again—its third such move in as many meetings—lowering its benchmark rate to a target range of 1.50% to 1.75%.
The Fed lowered interest rates for the second time this year at the conclusion of its FOMC meeting. Is another cut possible before year-end?
This is the longest U.S. economic expansion ever. And while expansions don’t die of old age, it’s prudent for investors and central bankers to think now about the potential consequences of the next global recession.
An escalating China-U.S. trade war sent stocks reeling, as markets weighed potential impacts to U.S. consumer spending, corporate earnings and job growth.
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in over a decade today, but stocks still moved lower. Why?
The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its June meeting, but signaled it may lower borrowing costs next month.
Is the market-implied probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) rate cut later this year overblown? Our answer: Yes.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, U.S. Institutional Senior Director Rob Cittadini and Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman discuss recent economic data from China, the Brexit deadline extension, and the contrasting impact on global equity and fixed-income markets.
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of today’s policy meeting, once again emphasizing a patient approach to monetary policy in the months ahead.
Leading into today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, Chair Jerome Powell and a host of regional Federal Reserve (the Fed) bank presidents had unanimously expressed support for a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle. Even perma-hawk Esther George, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, advocated for a cautious and patient approach to monetary policy in her speech a few weeks ago.
Markets dropped sharply after the Fed raised interest rates again today and indicated two additional increases are likely in 2019.
An inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve has historically been a telltale sign of a looming recession for the U.S. Does the recent curve flattening spell trouble for the U.S. economy?
How might the ceasefire on new tariffs between the U.S. and China impact markets and economies?
What's driving the current market selloff?
How are markets reacting to the results of U.S. midterms? We have the latest.
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates today following its September policy meeting. Could the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China impact plans for future increases?
In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long could the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm?
The U.S. economy has been growing for nine straight years—but current macroeconomic indicators hint that the good times may be coming to an end as soon as next year.
With new chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the Fed increased borrowing costs today for the sixth time since the U.S. economic expansion began. Can markets expect continued rate hikes under Powell's watch?
U.S. inflation data for January came in stronger than expected. What effect could this have on future Fed interest rate increases?
The U.S. Congress passed a significant bill today that makes sweeping changes to the country’s tax code. How much of a boost could the new law provide to financial markets and the nation’s economy?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered another rate hike today, raising its target policy rate by 25 basis points to a new range of 1.25-1.50%. The decision was widely anticipated by economists and fixed income investors.
The U.S. economic expansion is now the third-longest on record. Does this mean a recession is looming? Senior Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman digs into the data and assesses the risks.
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to begin the process of balance sheet normalization, or quantitative tightening, this fall. What kind of impact to markets is expected?
The Trump agenda was an ambitious one. Senior investment strategist Paul Eitelman breaks down its progress piece by piece and shows the potential impact on markets and investors.
Did the Fed make the right call and what does it mean for 2017?