You know society is in trouble when the Prime Minister of your country stands up and says something along the lines of “of course we can afford to take on more debt – you are old-fashioned if you think otherwise”.
There are three key drivers of financial markets - behavioural patterns, cyclical trends and structural trends. Because human attention spans are getting shorter and shorter, behavioural patterns affect financial markets more and more. That is a problem but also an opportunity set for the astute investor who is prepared to think outside-the-box.
Oil prices have been remarkably strong more recently, defying our (very) long-term prediction that fossil fuel prices will go to $0. In this month's Absolute Return Letter, we take a look at the reasons behind the recent strength and where oil prices are likely to go next.
Low-cost, high-grade coal, oil and natural gas - the backbone of the Industrial Revolution - will be a distant memory by 2050.