Results 51–100 of 108 found.
The Brexit Muddle
In the UK, the question of whether to remain in the EU is dominating the media, boardroom discussions, and dinner conversations. While slogans and soundbites tend to capture most of the attention, deeper issues in play leave the outcome of the June 23 referendum subject to a high degree of uncertainty.
Is the Perfect Storm Over for Markets?
So far this year, financial markets around the world have been navigating a perfect storm – that is, a violent disruption fueled by an unusual amalgamation of smaller disturbances. The spike in volatility of financial markets is the direct result of three distinct factors.
The End of the New Normal?
Just when the notion that Western economies are settling into a “new normal” of low growth gained mainstream acceptance, doubts about its continued relevance have begun to emerge. Instead, the world may be headed toward an economic and financial crossroads, with the direction taken depending on key policy decisions.
The Chinese Economy’s Great Wall
The renminbi's recent decline, which has thrown Chinese stock markets into turmoil and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic obligations. The authorities' answer will have a major impact on the global economy.
Argentina’s Economic Big Bang
Last week, newly elected Argentine President Mauricio Macri's government initiated a bold plan to revitalize a bruised and beleaguered economy. The plan's outcome matters not just for Argentina, but also for nearby countries, where leaders are watching closely for clues about how to deal with their economies' own woes.
The Great Policy Divergence
Over the next few weeks, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, while the European Central Bank doubles down on monetary stimulus. Although both central banks are pursuing legitimate domestic agendas, there are few mechanisms to manage the international repercussions of this policy disparity.
Governments’ Self-Disruption Challenge
One of the most difficult challenges facing Western governments today is to enable and channel the transformative – and self-empowering – forces of technological innovation. They will not succeed unless they become more open to creative destruction, allowing not only tools and procedures, but also mindsets, to be upgraded.
Refugees and Reform in Europe
Europe’s refugee crisis is a historic challenge that offers historic opportunities. The question is whether Europe’s politicians – who have failed to deliver on far less complicated issues over which they had a lot more control – can seize the moment.
Shelter from the Storm in Europe
To secure a prosperous future, Europe must confront three distinct challenges: the Greek crisis, Russia’s incursion in Ukraine, and the rise of populist political parties. While Europe could address each of these challenges individually with relatively little risk, all three must be addressed simultaneously.
The Quiet Financial Revolution Begins
Steadily and indisputably, the financial services industry – with which we all interact, whether as borrowers, savers, investors, or regulators – has embarked on a multiyear transformation. This process, slow at first, has been driven by the combined impact of two sets of factors.
Western Politics’ Locust Years
Many mainstream political parties in the West are so busy playing defense that they are forgoing the strategic thinking needed to re-energize growth models, anchor financial stability, and ensure that technological innovation enables broad-based prosperity. As a result, Western economies may be undermining their future potential.
Companies like Uber, Apple, and Airbnb have succeeded by exploiting a fundamental trend affecting nearly all industries: individual empowerment through the Internet, app technology, digitalization, and social media. If traditional firms hope to remain competitive, they must follow suit.
The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence
The world is increasingly characterized by divergence – in economic performance, monetary policy, and thus in financial markets. Though there is a broad consensus on what must be done to rebalance the global economy, political leaders remain unwilling to fulfill their economic-governance responsibilities.
An Accidental Currency War?
Six and a half years after the global financial crisis, central banks in emerging and developed economies alike are continuing to pursue unprecedentedly activist – and unpredictable – monetary policy. How much road remains in this extraordinary journey?
What Are We Betting On?
The world has collectively placed a huge bet on three fundamental outcomes: a shift toward more inclusive global growth, the avoidance of policy mistakes, and the prevention of market accidents. But all three developments are highly uncertain ? and bets on them are exceedingly risky.
A Year of Divergence
In the coming year, the global economy will be characterized by widening discrepancies in economic growth and policies. As these divergences become increasingly difficult to reconcile, policymakers will either have to overcome the obstacles that have so far impeded effective action or allow their economies to become destabilized.
The Inequality Trifecta
Perhaps the most striking disconnect at the annual IMF/World Bank meetings was the disparity between participants’ interest in discussions of inequality and the ongoing lack of a formal action plan for governments to address it. This represents a profound failure of policy imagination – one that must urgently be addressed.
Markets Rose-Tinted World
This has been an unusual year for the global economy, characterized by a series of unanticipated economic, geopolitical, and market shifts and the final quarter is likely to be no different. So why are financial markets behaving as if they were in a world of their own?
The Fragmentation of Bretton Woods
In recent years, political support for economic multilateralism has eroded, undermining the effectiveness of the Bretton Woods institutions and disrupting the international monetary system. This is not only hampering the global economys ability to meet its potential; it is also contributing to geopolitical insecurity.
The Three-Track Middle East
Rather than achieving internal convergence, the Middle East is now following at least three distinct paths, and already-large differences will persist and grow for a number of years to come. The main question is what will become of countries like Egypt, which can end up following the path of Syria or of the UAE.
Mexicos Breakout Moment?
Mexico has a good chance to realize its impressive structural-reform agenda. Doing so would give the rest of the world an important example of how such programs can be designed, implemented, and, most important, sustained until a critical mass of revitalized sectors and thus faster growth and greater prosperity is achieved.
Markets Federal Reserve Love Story
For many years market participants have been richly rewarded for falling in love quickly and decisively with policy measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve. More recently, however, some have become less comfortable, warning that the codependence is encouraging excessive risk-taking and, in some cases, bubbly valuations.
The Democratic Disruption of Finance
There seems to be no limit to the exciting possibilities that come from combining technical innovations, the Internet, and social media. What is less appreciated is the extent to which the same phenomenon is starting to play out in finance, via a democratization process that could transform the institutional landscape.
Cementing Europe?s Recovery
Europe?s renewed sense of hope and confidence, however encouraging, is not yet sufficient to produce appreciable gains for current and future generations. A few things need to happen over the next several weeks and months if Europe is to minimize the risk of another prolonged period of under-performance and financial risk.
Wallets Wide Shut
With profitability at or near record levels, cash holdings by the corporate sector in Europe and the US have reached an all-time high - and are earning very little at todays near-zero interest rates. But, for at least six reasons, firms are not investing in capacity and creating the jobs that these economies need.
A Happier Ending for IMF Reform?
Despite an elegant solution that involved no new commitments of resources, the US Congress last month refused to take up a long-delayed funding proposal for the IMF. But there is also a silver lining here, because disappointment can be turned into renewed opportunity.
Achieving Escape Velocity
While the prospect of faster global GDP growth in 2014 is good news, it is too early to celebrate. Indeed, there is a risk that, by tempting policymakers into complacency, this years economic upturn could even end up being counterproductive.
America's Partisan Peril
Many Americans started 2013 with high hopes that congressional leaders would overcome, even if only partly, the polarization and political dysfunction that had slowed recovery. But optimism foundered over the course of 2013, while frustration soared.
DC Plan Design for the Bumpy Road Ahead
In late October, PIMCOs CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed A. El-Erian presented the keynote speech at Pensions & Investments West Coast Defined Contribution Conference. He also spoke with P&I about top-of-mind concerns for retirement plan providers and sponsors. The Q&A below is based on that conversation.
The Uncertain Future of Central Bank Supremacy
Advanced countries’ central banks were among the first to warn that their ability to compensate for other policymakers’ inaction is neither endless nor risk-free. The trouble is that few outsiders seem to be listening, much less preparing to confront the limits of monetary policy’s effectiveness.
America's Labor Market by the Numbers
Net monthly job creation in the US was up in August, while unemployment was down. But, to get a real sense of the American labor markets health, we need to look at other indicators, and what these numbers have to tell us about both the present and the future is far from reassuring.
What's Happening to Bonds and Why?
To say that bonds are under pressure would be an understatement. Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an asset class experiencing large outflows, negative returns and reduced standing as an anchor of a well-diversified asset allocation.
Lehman's Morbid Legacy
As the fifth anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapse approaches, we need analyses of the previously unthinkable outcomes that have become reality with profound implications for current and future generations and that our systems of governance have yet to address properly. Four such outcomes come to mind.
Europe's Fake Normal
This summers sense of economic normality in Europe is neither natural nor necessarily tenable in the long term, because it reflects temporary and potentially reversible factors. If Europe does not return to addressing its economic challenges in a more comprehensive manner, the current calm may quickly give way to renewed turmoil.
Ireland and the Austerity Debate
People on both sides of the austerity debate are trying to position Ireland as the poster child for their case. Though neither side can claim victory, this tug-of-war illustrates the complex range of arguments in play and highlights why conclusive economic policy making is proving so elusive.
The Threat to the Central-Bank Brand
For the last 30 years, Western central banks have used their "brand" to help maintain low and stable inflation: by signaling their intention to contain price pressures, they would alter expectations and behavior. But, as corporate executives know, brand management is a tricky affair, particularly when popular sentiment overshoots.
New Normal ... Morphing
The New Normal has morphed to include consequential elements of a "stable disequilibrium." In the midst of notable multi-speed dynamics, the global economy as a whole is muddling along a road that will give way over the next three to five years to one of two stark alternatives: either sustainable global growth, institutional and political renewal in the West and safe deleveraging; or growth shortfalls that cause financial instability, fuel greater social tensions, accentuate political dysfunctions and complicate debt traps.
The Japanese Experiment
Weeks into Japans paradigm shift in economic policy, optimism that the country may end a quarter-century of economic stagnation is balanced by fears that the authorities new approach may make things worse. And, while debate naturally focuses on Japans internal maneuvers, the tipping point may lie abroad.
The Global Growth Quest
The last few years have highlighted the declining potency of long-standing growth models. Moreover, the search for more robust growth models will take much longer and be more complicated than many recognize especially as the world economy pivots away from unfettered globalization and high levels of leverage.
Global Markets Time Factor
In recent months, the dichotomy between booming financial markets and sluggish economies (and dysfunctional politics) has loomed large. The critical element of time and who controls it could well mean the difference between an orderly global resolution of todays ongoing financial problems and a return to serious trouble.
Transatlantic Trade's Transformative Potential
A "Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" between the US and Europe has the potential to transform global trade and multilateral organizations to the benefit of all. But this opportunity could be squandered, owing to the short-term mindset that now encumbers the West and the multilateral organizations that it dominates.
Beggar Thy Currency Or Thy Self?
One need not be an economist to figure out that, while all currencies can depreciate against something else (like gold, land, and other real assets), by definition they cannot all depreciate against each other. Yet, when push comes to shove, country after country is being dragged into a negative dynamic of competitive depreciation.
PIMCO's Secular Forum Preview
It is almost time again for PIMCO's Secular Forum a critical part of the firm's investment process. This annual event, which takes place each May, brings together our investment professionals from around the world to debate and specify the key themes that we believe will affect the global economy and, consequently, our investment strategies over the next three to five years from asset allocation and relative value positioning to returns expectations and risk management.
The Political Economy of 2013
Watching America's national leaders scramble in the closing days of 2012 to avoid a "fiscal cliff" that would plunge the economy into recession was yet another illustration of an inconvenient truth: messy politics remains a major driver of global economic developments. This will become even more evident worldwide in 2013.
Farewell to Inflation Targeting?
In a four-day period in mid-December, three seemingly unrelated developments suggested that modern central banking is in the midst of an historic change. To the extent that this shift gains momentum which appears likely it will affect economic performance, the functioning of markets, and asset-price valuations.
Europes Economic War of Attrition
During the war of attrition that followed Egypt's defeat in the June 1967 war with Israel, underlying tensions festered. While the parallels with today's European debt crisis are far from perfect the threat is economic rather than military there is a real sense of no peace and no war.
The Other Financial Crisis
Two variants of financial crisis are continuing to wreak havoc on Western economies: the sovereign debt crisis, involving governments; and a less visible one at the level of small and medium-size businesses and households. Until both are addressed properly, the West will remain burdened by sluggish growth.
Results 51–100 of 108 found.