Wall Street and Main Street have gotten a divorce, or at the very least they have separated. The U.S. is in a recession but the stock market marches blindly higher.
The longest bull market in history keeps rolling along. And the recipients of this bull market’s run are losing money hand over fist. There are more than 40% of listed companies in the U.S. that lose money – the highest level since the late 1990’s outside of post-recession periods.
There is certainly a plethora of worries pestering the market: tariffs, interest rates, debt, recession, insider selling and the repo market to name a few. Many have argued that “this time is different” and all of these worries can be overcome.
The biggest threat may be the Fed and interest rates. In May, Powell said it was unlikely the Fed would cut rates. As soon as a month later, he indicated that the case for a rate cut was strengthening.
There is a herd of unicorns prancing through Wall Street and the bulk of money is chasing them. A “unicorn” refers to a startup, usually venture-backed, that achieves a private valuation in excess of $1 billion whether they are profitable or not when they become public.