Are the Market Aftershocks We Just Saw Normal?
The unexpectedly large number of swings that follow a shock are generally just noise – the interaction of panicked sellers and greedy speculators trying to find the bottom – but should be expected, as aftershocks tend to cluster following a shock.
A Comparison of Passively Managed, Small-Value Funds
Small-value investors can choose between index funds and passively managed, structured products. While index funds have lower costs, they don’t offer the same degree of exposure to the small-cap and value factors. Here is how that difference has played out in three prominent funds over the last eight years.
Do Insiders Exploit Anomalies?
There are predictable patterns in security returns that conflict with market efficiency. If there are behavioral explanations, these are called anomalies. A new study looks at whether “insiders” exploit those anomalies – and whether investors can benefit from observing insider trading patterns.
What to Do When a Strategy Performs Poorly
In recent years, U.S. stocks have far outperformed international stocks, and growth stocks have far outperformed value stocks. That has led many to question the benefits of diversification and ask what they should do when an investment strategy performs poorly. This podcast will answer that question.
When Are ESG/SRI Strategies Likely to Outperform?
Over the past decade, and particularly over the last several years, there has been a dramatic increase in ESG investing strategies. That has coincided with robust economic and market performance in the U.S. New research examines whether strong ESG returns are likely to be tied to a strong economy and market.
New Research on the Value Premium
New research confirms that stocks with high projected earnings growth underperform those with low projections. This anomaly is due to underlying behavioral biases that also explain why value has underperformed growth over the last decade – and why value is poised for a reversal.
December 2019 SPIVA Persistence Scorecard
Since 2002, S&P Dow Jones Indices has published its SPIVA reports, which compare the performance of actively managed equity funds to their appropriate index benchmarks. It also puts out a pair of scorecards each year that focus on persistence of performance. Here are the latest results.
The Enterprise Multiple and Expected Returns
Quantitative value investors have traditionally relied on price-to-book as the metric to classify stocks. But new research shows that price-to-enterprise value is a more powerful tool to construct portfolios. That research also sheds light on the question of whether the value premium is risk- or behaviorally-based.
Investment Lessons from 2019
Every year, the markets provide us with lessons on prudent investment strategies. Many times, markets offer investors remedial courses, covering lessons it had taught in previous years. That’s why one of my favorite sayings is that there’s nothing new in investing, only investment history you don’t yet know.
Accountability Proves the Incompetence of Market Forecasters
Market forecasters know their fallibility, which is why they rarely offer predictions with specific timeframes – it would make it too easy for fact-checkers like me to hold them accountable. When one prominent forecaster – John Mauldin – boldly attached a five-year horizon to his predictions, it gave me an opportunity to look back and do just that.
Does ESG/SRI Investing Reduce Stock Prices and Investment Returns?
Proponents of investing with an ESG mandate often claim that those strategies do not entail a performance sacrifice relative to an appropriate non-ESG benchmark. But new research shows that such claims are problematic.
New Research on Factor Investing in the Bond Market
Factor-driven investing, while highly popular among equity investors, has not been widely adopted in the bond market. But new research shows how to construct highly efficient fixed-income portfolios using factors, as well as the ongoing importance of reducing expenses.
Should You “Sell” Volatility?
Academic theory predicts that the volatility implied by the VIX index will be greater than the realized volatility. That difference can be thought of as an insurance premium investors are willing to pay because volatility tends to spike when stocks crash, as in the last bear market. New research confirms that investors can profit from this and that such a strategy is uncorrelated with other traditional sources of return.
Do Long-Only Portfolios Effectively Capture Factor Returns?
Factor performance, as conceived by Fama and French and refined by others, is based on adding the returns of a “long” portfolio of securities that most embody the factors to a “short” portfolio that least represent the factors. But it is common practice for mutual funds and ETFs to use only the long portfolio. New research show that this approach does effectively capture the returns of the underlying factors.
Is the Shift to Passive Investing Increasing Risks?
Earlier this year, passive management was attacked in two high-profile articles. Those criticisms were proven to be false – and driven by active managers seeking to protect their livelihoods. But that still left the question, which I now examine, of whether flows to passive funds have increased certain risks.
Are VIX ETPs Effective at Protecting Downside Risk?
A long-sought goal of advisors is a cost-effective way to hedge one’s equity holdings. I previously wrote about why put options fail to achieve this goal. In this article, I consider whether volatility-based products are any better.
Evaluating the Performance of ESG Funds
An ESG mandate fulfills the noble goal of aligning investors’ portfolios with their personal values and beliefs. But new research affirms what financial theory predicts: Those investors will incur a penalty in terms of risk-adjusted performance.
Understanding and Implementing Risk Parity
If you take the common 60/40 portfolio, with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, you find that approximately 90% of the risk – in terms of volatility – is in the stock portion of the portfolio. Risk parity addresses that incongruity, and uses an approach builds an asset allocation in terms of risk rather than asset classes.
Getting Paid to Reduce Risk: The Low-Risk Anomaly
New research on the low-risk anomaly – the fact that less risky stocks have had higher risk-adjusted returns – reveals exactly which types of stocks are likely to perform poorly over time, especially in a bear market. If the funds and ETFs you own lack construction rules to screen out those stocks, you will be exposed to unnecessary risks.
Individual Stock Investing Increases Risk
Recent studies show that the returns to equity investors have historically come from a relatively small number of stocks. Investors who fail to adequately diversify increase their chances of failing to own those high-performing stocks, and they are not compensated for the risks they do bear.
How Private Equity Destroys Investors’ Wealth
Private equity investing has created enormous wealth for those fortunate to be the general partners of a fund. But for regular investors – the limited partners – recent studies show that when properly adjusted for risks PE returns lag those of the less risky public markets. Moreover, there is little evidence that investors can identify, in advance, the very few PE funds that will outperform.
How Lower Rates Stress Investment Plans
Interest rates are falling and with that comes a series of problems investors must confront. There are the obvious implications, like lower returns from bonds. But the more pernicious harm will come from thee failure to properly adapt financial plans to current market conditions.
New Research from GMO on Value Investing’s “Lost Decade”
The performance of U.S. value stocks over the last decade has led many to wonder whether the value premium has been completely eroded. New research from GMO shows that this was due to changes in relative valuations that favored growth over value, but now value stocks are priced attractively.
A Second Quarter Review of 2019 “Sure Things”
At the start of 2019, I compiled a list of predictions that so-called financial gurus had made for the upcoming year for a consensus on the year’s “sure things.” The turn of the calendar means it is now time for our second quarter review.
How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
When choosing a factor-based strategy, advisors should carefully scrutinize the fund;s construction rules (e.g., the number of securities held) and implementation strategy (e.g., the frequency of rebalancing and the use of patient, algorithmic trading).
Low-Volatility Investing Works – Sometimes
Before you jump on the low-volatility bandwagon, it’s important you understand that the research demonstrates that the performance of the low-volatility factor is actually well explained by exposure to other factors, and it is also highly regime dependent.
Has the Value Trade Become Overcrowded?
I am often asked whether the underperformance of U.S. value stocks over the last decade is a result of overcrowding. We can address that issue by examining the spreads in valuations of growth and value stocks. If overcrowding has occurred, we should see a dramatic narrowing in valuations.