The bond market has been in hibernation for months, and investors may have become complacent about risks.
Now that the dollar is near the year’s highs, can the rally continue? We believe it can in the near term, although our longer-term view is more nuanced. Here’s what we see ahead.
As the Federal Reserve transitions from merely talking about tapering its bond holdings to actually tapering, investors may be left wondering what it might mean for the markets and their portfolios.
Although the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases has unsettled markets in the past, we expect it to be more orderly this time around.
To get the facts, sometimes you need to look beneath the surface.
A boom in spending has stirred fears of economic overheating, which has coincided with a surge in commodity prices and a lift in traditional inflation metrics.
With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation.
We are often asked if the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.
U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.
The late-February spike in U.S. Treasury bond yields sent ripples throughout the global markets. As yields surged to the highest level in a year, stocks and commodities sold off sharply, while the dollar rallied.
Hope is high that economic growth will accelerate as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, but so far economic data has been lackluster. Meanwhile, bond investors are expecting inflation despite signs that the economic recovery’s momentum may be stalling. Why does everything seem so disconnected?
The new year kicked off with a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, despite unprecedented political turmoil and signs that the economic recovery is slowing.
U.S. stocks have continued to climb amid optimism about a vaccine-led economic recovery, but it’s a narrow path—buoyant investor sentiment could easily be deflated by bad news. Although global economic growth has struggled, an acceleration in vaccinations in major countries could support stronger growth in the second quarter.
Encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines has boosted hope for stronger economic growth, kicking off a rotation in stocks and equity sectors as investors look to a brighter future. However, near-term volatility is possible, as we’re not yet out of the coronavirus tunnel.
Ten-year Treasury bond yields may rise as high as 1.6% in 2021, reflecting prospects for faster economic growth.
Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.
There are many major policy decisions that will influence the outlook—trade, energy, taxes and budget deficits, and pandemic relief. However, it’s difficult to assess how these issues will be addressed post-election, and even more unpredictable how the market will react.
Given current low yields, some investors wonder whether bonds can continue to provide diversification in a portfolio. Here’s why those fears may be overblown.
The U.S. stock market hit pause in early September, as investors took a harder look at market overconcentration and frothy sentiment. Meanwhile, global economies may be entering a new phase, and the Federal Reserve’s newly announced inflation policy is likely to keep U.S. rates lower for longer.
The move away from a precise 2% target likely means short-term rates will stay lower for longer.
Treasury bond yields have been drifting quietly lower since early June. But there is more going on beneath the surface than it might seem at first glance. Real yields—nominal yields less inflation—have declined steeply into negative territory. While nominal yields are near record-low levels from the deep economic decline, inflation expectations are picking up.
Although certain high-frequency data haven’t improved markedly, the threat of the virus has started to recede.
The U.S. dollar has fallen by about 7% against a broad basket of currencies since its mid-March peak. After a nearly decade-long bull market that saw it appreciate by more than 40%, we believe the dollar could be headed for a longer-term decline.
Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.
U.S. stocks have been fairly resilient lately, even as coronavirus hotspots flare up around the country. Although consumers and businesses are increasingly worried about rolling shutdowns, major stock indexes generally have moved sideways. How long can this continue? Much depends on the shape of the economic recovery.
Returns for most fixed income asset classes are positive so far this year, but the numbers mask the rocky road markets have traveled since January.
Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the U.S. economy, with containment efforts leading to widespread business closings and surging unemployment—and stock market volatility. The key questions now are when can the economy reopen, and what happens when it does?
While the COVID-19 crisis is far from over, we expect central bank and government policies to be key to performance in the second quarter.
In a surprise move on Sunday night, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate to the 0% to 0.25% range and announced a series of moves to address the economic threat posed by the novel coronavirus. The central bank used a full range of its potential policies to support the economy and financial system.
Stocks have plummeted this month as investors struggled to assess what impact the COVID-19 coronavirus may have on the economy.
In a surprise move, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday lowered the target range for the federal funds rate, its key benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points,or half a percentage point, to a new range of 1% to 1.25%. The reasoning behind the move was concern about the “evolving risks” to the economy posed by the coronavirus.
Although stocks rebounded after a sharp drop in January, the market’s reaction to the coronavirus outbreak highlighted stock vulnerabilities.
The U.S. economy split sharply in 2019—manufacturing activity lagged services, corporate profits lagged stock performance—while investor sentiment surged. How long will these divergences continue in 2020?
