Our baseline economic forecast is a U-shaped global recovery, but substantial unknowns remain.
The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.
In a nutshell, we concluded that the global economy is about to enter a low-growth “window of weakness,” which we expect to persist going into 2020 with heightened uncertainty about whether it is a window to recovery or recession.
Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.
We believe short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now anchored in The New Neutral, as global growth keeps synching lower.
We see a synchronized global slowdown in 2019. We position cautiously but anticipate opportunities ahead.
We see growth slowing, but not an imminent recession. We invest accordingly.
We expect a more difficult market environment will surprise many investors as the post-crisis era ends. It’s time to position for the opportunities ahead.
We expect the global expansion to continue in 2018. Yet investors should prepare for both the consequences of policy shifts and the opportunities presented in more difficult market conditions.
We see three risks to the outlook for steady economic growth. Yet we also see opportunities for investors to target above-benchmark returns while emphasizing defense at a time of low volatility and full valuations.
We expect the global economic expansion to strengthen and broaden over the cyclical horizon, but with improved growth and inflation prospects, central banks may scale back accommodation.
We assess three global economic scenarios for 2017.