The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 4.16%. It is abovethe 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%.
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
We've updated this series to include the April release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $43,774, down 5.7% from 45-plus years ago.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 4.16%, up from 2.62% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.96%, up from 1.65% the previous month and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for April. The unemployment rate inched up to 6.1%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 266K.
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through March, is now available.
As of May 10, the price of Regular and Premium was up seven cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.09 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.62. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 64.92, up 0.7% from last week.
The headline number for April came in at 98.2, up 1.6 from the previous month. The index is at the 50th percentile in this series.
Seven of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 10, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 15.03%, our own S&P 500 is in second is with a gain of 11.51% and Germany's DAXK is in third with a gain of 10.31%. Coming in last is China's Shanghai with a loss of 1.30%.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.6 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 266K nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 282K service-providing jobs and a loss of 16K goods-producing jobs.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. April's 266K increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 78K fewer jobs than previously reported. ("Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.") The Investing.com consensus was for 978K jobs gained and the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 158.7, up 1.8 from the previous week's revised figure and an all-time high. The WLIg is at 24.8, up fractionally from last week and the WLI YoY is at 37.14% down from last week.
This morning's employment report for April showed a 266K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was well below the Investing.com forecast of 978K jobs added.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $20,554 for an annualized real return of 14.5%.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the April 30, 2020 close
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 498K new claims, down 92K from the previous week's upwardly revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 540K.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
With the Q1 GDP Advance Estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 209.2%, up from 193.3% the previous quarter.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the April Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at percent 62.7, down 1.0 from 63.7 last month (an all-time high). Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 64.3 percent.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The April US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 64.7 percent, up 5.0 from the final March estimate of 59.7.
This morning we have the ADP April estimate of 742K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over the ADP revised March figure of 565K.
As of April 30, the 10-year note was 113 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.
The moving average for the per-capita Light Vehicle Sales series peaked in 2005. Sixteen years later, it is now down 6.9% from that peak.
Note: This update includes April close data.
Quick take: At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 170% above its long-term trend, up from 158% above the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -74.45B was at the Investing.com forecast.
Advisor Perspectives has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q1 2021.
Quick take: Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 179% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for April. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 60.7, a decrease of 4.0 from 64.7 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 65.0 percent.
The April US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 60.5, up 1.4 from the 59.1 final March figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Valid until the market close on May 310 2021.
The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 6% after a gain of 4.24% in March. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — unchanged from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
The April Final came in at 88.3, up 3.4 from the March Final. Investing.com had forecast 87.4. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 2.5 percent above the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 3.6 percent above the geometric mean.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 72.1 in April from 66.. in March, which is in expansion territory and its highest since 1983. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
With the release of this morning's report on March's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 23.57% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to 22.94% when we adjust for inflation and an all-time high. This is an increase from last month's -7.91% nominal and -8.13% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 31.77% nominal and 28.78% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in March rose 1.44% and is up 3.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.92%. The real number is up 1.3% year-over-year.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for March was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.52% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 2.32% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is now at 1.83%, below the Fed's 2% target rate.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 6.4% (6.39% to two decimals), up from 4.3% (4.33% to two decimals) in Q4 2020. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 5.82% to two decimal points.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007 and uses stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.