This month, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2019. Last year the median (middle) average household income rose to $68,703. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 860K new claims, down 33K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 850K.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for August new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.416M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.478M and a decrease from the previous month's revised 1.492M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for August new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.470M was a decrease from 1.483M in July and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.520M.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 15, down 2.2 from last month's 17.2. The 3-month moving average came in at 18.8, down from 21.0 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 56.6, up 17.8 from the previous month's 38.8.
Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.
Month-over-month nominal sales in August increased by 0.56%. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, increased by 0.18%.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 83 is up 5 from last month's 78 and at its highest level in the indicator's history, exceeding its December 1998 record.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for August was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.6% month-over-month to one decimal and was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.0%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.7% MoM.
Today's report on Industrial Production for August shows a 0.36% increase month-over-month, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 1.0%. The year-over-year change is -7.73%, up from last month's YoY decrease.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 17.0 was an increase of 13.3 from the previous month's 3.7. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 6.0.
The price of Regular and Premium are down three and two cents, respectively, from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $3.21 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $1.83. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 37.26, up 1.4% from last week.
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 14, 2020, at 0.68%, the 2-year note ended at 0.14%, and the 30-year at 1.42%.
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through September 14, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a gain of 7.50%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a gain of 4.73% and in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 0.41%. Coming in last is London's FTSE 100 with a loss of 20.1%.
The S&P 500 dropped 2.78% on Tuesday and somewhat recovered on Wednesday, only to drop again on Thursday with a slight gain Friday. The index is down 2.5% from last Friday and is up 3.41% YTD.
We've updated this series to include the August release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $42,177, down 6.7% from 45-plus years ago.
Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 139.4 up 0.7 from the previous week. The WLIg is at 1.6, also up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -3.51, up from last week.
We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include last Friday's Employment Report for August. The unemployment fell to 8.4%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 1.84M.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.31%, up from 0.99% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.74%, up from 1.57% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from Friday's Employment Report. Consider: Today nearly one in three of the 65-69 cohort and one in five of the 70-74 cohort are in the labor force.
The latest monthly employment report showed a gain of 1.37M nonfarm jobs, which consists of a gain of 1.33M service-providing jobs and a gain of 43K goods-producing jobs.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
Today's release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.6% increase last month. It is at -0.2% year-over-year, up from -0.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.4% MoM, up from -0.5% the previous month and is up 0.6% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through July, is now available.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,220 for an annualized real return of 10.92%.
At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.4 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Take a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite since 2000. We've updated this through the August 31, 2020 close
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
The headline number for August came in at 100.2, up 1.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 56th percentile in this series.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. August's 1.37M increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 39K fewer jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 1.4M jobs gained and the unemployment rate to decrease to 9.8%.
With the Q2 GDP Second Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 130.9%, up from 123.3% the previous quarter.
This morning's employment report for August showed a 1.37M increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 1.4M.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The headline Composite Index is at percent 56.9, down 1.2 from 58.1 last month. Today's number came in slightly below the Investing.com forecast of 57.0 percent.
The August US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.0 percent, up 5.0 from the final July estimate of 50.0. The Investing.com consensus was for 54.8 percent.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -63.56B was more negative than the Investing.com forecast of -58.0B.
Quick take: At the end of August the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 135% above its long-term trend, up from 123% the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Note: This update includes August close data.
Today we have the ADP August estimate of 428K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over the ADP revised July figure of 212K.
As of August 31, the 10-year note is 20 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4.
Quick take: Based on the August S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 147% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for August is 12.18, up from the previous month's 10.26. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Are we in the beginning stages of another secular bear?
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for August. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.0, an increase of 1.8 from 54.2 the previous month. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 54.5 percent.