Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
As of July 30, the 10-year note was 72 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52%, reached on August 4, 2020
Note: This update includes July close data.
As of August 2, the price of Regular and Premium was up two and three cents, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.37 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.77. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 71.26, down 0.9% from last week and up 50% from the beginning of the year.
Six out of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through August 2, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 20.26%, our own S&P 500 is in second is with a gain of 16.80%, and India's BSE SENSEX is in third with a gain of 10.89%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 3.66%.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull?
Quick take: Based on the July S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 188% above its arithmetic mean and at the 100th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for July. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 59.5, a decrease of 1.1 from 60.6 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 60.9 percent.
The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 63.4, up from the final June figure and a record high. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Valid until the market close on August 31, 2021.
The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 2.27% after a gain of 2.22% in June. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, all five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "invested" — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU), iShares Barclays 7-10 Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — up from last month's quadruple "invested" signal.
The July Final came in at 81.2, down 4.3 (5.0%) from the June Final. Investing.com had forecast 80.8. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 5.7 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 4.7 percent below the geometric mean.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 153.9, down 0.8 from the previous week's revised figure. The WLIg is at 11.1, also down from last week and the WLI YoY is at 16.54%, down from last week.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 73.4 in July from 66.1 in June, which is in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
With the release of this morning's report on June's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal -0.04% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.55% when we adjust for inflation. This is an increase from last month's -2.74% nominal and -3.33% real decreases. The year-over-year metrics are 0.46% nominal and -3.41% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.7% and is up 8.8% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.16%. The real number is up 4.7% year-over-year. Revisions were made.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for June was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.51% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 3.99% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is now at 3.54%, above the Fed's 2% target rate. Revisions were made.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 6.5% (6.50% to two decimals), up from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimals) in Q1 2021. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 6.25% to two decimal points.
Today the National Association of Realtors released the June data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales declined marginally in June after recording a notable gain in May."
The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.5% (6.50% to two decimal places), an increase from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 8.5%.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 400K new claims, down 24K from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 380K.
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for July is 30, up from the previous month.
The headline number of 129.1 was an increase of 0.2 from the final reading of 128.9 for June. This was above the Investing.com consensus of 123.9.
With today's release of the May S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month which is cut to 1.5% with inflation adjustment. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 16.6% YoY increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. U.S. house prices were up 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18% on a non-seasonally adjusted nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, the index is up 0.9% in May and up 11% year-over-year (seasonally adjusted).
The latest new orders number at 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) was worse than the Investing.com 2.1% estimate. The series is up 29.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods was up 0.3% MoM, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.8%. The core measure is up 19.6% YoY.
Fifth District manufacturing activity showed continued growth in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose to 27 from 26 in June and indicates expansion.
Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership has struggled. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q2 2021.
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for July. The latest general business activity index came in at 27.3, down 3.8 from 31.1 in June. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
This morning's release of the June New Home Sales from the Census Bureau came in at 676K, down 6.6% month-over-month from a revised 724K in May. The Investing.com forecast was for 800K. The median home price is now at $361.8K.
We have announced our Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2021.
The S&P 500 dropped upon open on Monday only to spend the rest of the week rising. The index ended the week at another record high, up four out of five days. It is up 1% from Thursday and up 17.5% YTD.
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, which we reported on this morning, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes Initial Jobless Claims through 7/17, June Industrial Production, and June Employment.
The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June was up 0.7% from the May final figure of 114.3 and at another record high.
This morning's release of the June Existing-Home Sales showed that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.86 million units from the previous month's 5.78 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.9 million. The latest number represents a 1.4% increase from the previous month and a 24% increase YoY.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.09 in June from +0.26 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, but two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.06 in June from +0.80 in May.
The latest index came in at 30, up 3 from last month's 27, indicating expansion in July. The future outlook decreased to 33 his month from 37. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share.
Over the long haul the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the Starts data and the Permits data, which began being tracked a year later.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through June. The latest debt level is up 2.4% month-over-month and is at a record high.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for June new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.643M was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.590M and a 6.3% increase from the previous month's 1.546M.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for June new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.598M was down 5.05% from the May reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.700M.
Month-over-month nominal sales in June was up 0.55% and up 18%% YoY. Real Retail Sales, calculated with the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, decreased by 0.35% and was up 12% YoY.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 80 is down slightly from last month.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for June was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 0.55% month-over-month to two decimals and was above the Investing.com forecast of -0.4%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.4% MoM.
Today's report on Industrial Production for June shows a 0.44% increase month-over-month, which was below the Investing.com consensus of 0.6%. The year-over-year change is 9.8%, down from last month's YoY increase. Annual revisions were made.
This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 43 was an increase of 25.6 from the previous month's 17.4. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 18.
The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 21.9, down 8.8 from last month's 30.7. The 3-month moving average came in at 28.0, down from 33.6 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 48.6, down 20.6 from the previous month's 69.2.