The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).
The latest monthly employment report showed a loss of 701K nonfarm payrolls, which consists of a loss of 647K service-providing jobs and a loss of 54K goods-producing jobs.
The latest JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary), with data through February, is now available.
Let's take a closer look at Friday's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment.
The price of Regular and Premium are down eight cents each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $3.19 and Wisconsin has the cheapest at $1.41. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 26.08, up 27% from last week.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through April 6, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a loss of 9.38%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a loss of 17.55% and in third is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 17.57%. Coming in last is India's BSE SENSEX with a loss of 33.12%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $12,854 for an annualized real return of 5.03%.
This commentary has been updated to include yesterday morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. March's 701K decrease in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 57K fewer jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 100K jobs lost and the unemployment rate to increase to 3.8%.
The S&P 500 was down 1.51% today after a mixed week. The index rose on Monday, began to drop on Tuesday and Wednesday, and flip-flopped on Thursday. It is down 2.08% since last Friday and is down 22.97% YTD.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are now in a bear market and the longest bull market in history is over. Here's a roundup of some informative charts, including the S&P 500, changes in the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P since 2000, and a few more that are relevant.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk?
Today’s release of employment data confirmed what we were all expecting – a precipitous collapse in the number of Americans who are gainfully employed.
This morning's employment report for March showed a 701K decrease in total nonfarm payrolls, which was well below the Investing.com forecast of -100K.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 106.0, down 7.0 from the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -26.9, down 11.4 from last week and its lowest since the last recession.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the March Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at percent 52.5, down 4.8 from 57.3 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 44.0 percent.
The March US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 39.8 percent, down 9.6 from the final February estimate of 49.4. The Investing.com consensus was for 49.4 percent.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Are we in the beginning stages of another secular bear?
With the Q4 GDP Third Estimate, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 156.0%, up from 144.9% the previous quarter.
Note: This update includes the Q4 GDP Third Estimate and the March close data.
This morning's seasonally adjusted 6.65M new claims, up 3.3M from the previous week's revised figure, was worse than the Investing.com forecast of 3.5M.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 199 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. Today's headline number of -39.93B was lower than the Investing.com forecast of -40.0B.
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the March estimate of 27K nonfarm private employment jobs lost from ADP, a decrease over February's revised 183K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.
Quick take: At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 86% above its long-term trend, down from 130% the previous month.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
Quick take: Based on the March S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 97% above its arithmetic mean and at the 96th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric.
This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for March. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.1, a decrease of 1.0 percent from 50.1 the previous month. Today's headline number was above the Investing.com forecast of 45.0 percent.
The March US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 48.5, down 2.2 from the 50.7 final February figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Today we have the ADP March estimate of 27K nonfarm private employment jobs lost, a decrease over the ADP revised February figure of 179K.
Valid until the market close on April 30, 2020.
The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly loss of 12.51% after a loss of 8.41% in February. All three S&P 500 MAs are signaling "cash" and four of five Ivy Portfolio ETFs — Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard FTSE All-World ETF (VEU), and PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC) — are signaling "cash".
"Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.1% (+5.3 billion vehicle miles) for January 2020 as compared with January 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 253.7 billion vehicle miles." The 12-month moving average was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 0.9% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.42% month-over-month and up 0.5% year-over-year.
With today's release of the January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.31% month over month which is cut to -0.04% with inflation adjustment.
The headline number of 120.0 was a decrease from the final reading of 132.6 for February. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 110.0.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 47.8 in March from 49.0 in February, which is in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.
Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month.
Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for March is -1.7, down from the previous month's 5.8. It is well below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.
This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The latest general business activity index came in at -70.0, down 71.2 from 1.2 in February. All figures are seasonally adjusted.
Today the National Association of Realtors released the February data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National Association of Realtors®, "Pending home sales rose in February, climbing for the second consecutive month."
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for February, released this morning, shows that core inflation is below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.82%. The FebruaryCore Consumer Price Index release is higher at 2.36%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The March final came in at 89.1. Investing.com had forecast 90.0.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for February was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.09% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.79% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE is below the Fed's 2% target rate.
We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index today's release which includes initial jobless claims through March 21, the Q4 GDP Third Estimate, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales for December 2019, Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments for February 2020, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales for January 2020.
With the release of this morning's report on February Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.50% month-over-month change in disposable income was reduced to 0.41% when we adjust for inflation. This is a change from last month's 0.56% nominal and 0.42% real increase last month. The year-over-year metrics are 3.50% nominal and 1.68% real.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in February rose 0.61% and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.52%. The real number is up 1.9% year-over-year.
The accompanying chart is a way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. It uses a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Third Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.1% (2.13% to two decimal places), mostly unchanged from 2.1% (2.12% to two decimal places) for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.1%.
The latest index came in at -17, down 22 from last month's 5, which indicates contraction in March. The future outlook decreased from 16 last month to -19 this month. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
The Census Bureau has posted the Advance Report on Durable Goods New Orders. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's now review Durable Goods data with two adjustments.