Results 151–200 of 219 found.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Springtime for Housing?
This week’s economic calendar includes some key data on the housing market and few other major reports. The debate about the strength of the U.S. economy continues. The housing market is an important contributor to the economy. As we enter the key season for real estate many will be asking: Is it Springtime for housing?
Is the Market Cheap? Three Things You Need to Know About Valuation, but Don't
There is a general consensus that valuation indicators are not very useful for market timing. Despite this, the financial media and the blogosphere feature an avalanche of articles warning that the market is seriously overvalued. Your retirement account might drop 50% at any moment. There are countless worries in the world.
The Evolution of the “Hussman Chart”
Last week, among several other illustrations of popular investment misconceptions, I included a version of what I will call the “Hussman Chart.” I suggested that if you did not understand the chart, you shouldn’t be using it for your investment decisions. My main point was that people blindly accept conclusions from intelligent sources who use sophisticated methods. Of the are dozens of possible illustrations, I included the Hussman Chart.
Can Stocks (finally) Set a New Record?
We have been taking profits on stocks that hit targets and replacing with new selections. There are many candidates, and we go shopping on dips. We classify stocks three ways: (1) Aggressive upside, but plenty of risk. You need to buy a basket, not a single stock; (2) Great companies with great prospects, currently undervalued, but with potential catalysts. (3) Stodgy, conservative names without a lot of upside. Great candidates for enhancing dividend yield by selling near-term calls. Thinking about opportunities in this way is a good method for the individual investor.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Sell the News?
The economic calendar is moderate. Fed Heads are mostly on the bench. The Doho oil conference (combining OPEC and non-OPEC producers) will be the first major news for the week ahead. Markets have already anticipated the outcome, just as they have the trend of first- quarter earnings. It is a classic test of the theme: Is it time to sell the news?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Fed Too Optimistic?
The calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. Last week had plenty of important data; this week has little. Instead we get multiple speeches from Fed Presidents and Governors and the release of the last FOMC minutes. Little data plus lots of Fed news is a natural draw for the punditry. This week they will be asking: Is the Fed too optimistic?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Markets Finally Celebrate Good News?
The data calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. This week we have a concentration of the important economic releases. We also have daily appearances by Fed members. This provides a daily opportunity for pundits to interpret the news: Can markets finally celebrate good news?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What’s Up with Housing?
Once again, this week’s economic calendar is very light. There will be plenty of political news and daily doses of FedSpeak. Despite the political stories, I expect the punditry to be asking: What is happening with housing?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
Last week’s economic calendar was the biggest of the year and this week’s is the lightest. In the absence of important economic news and earnings, where will financial media turn to fill that space and time? The Presidential election campaign is providing a lot of zest as well as a little substance. I expect financial pundits to be asking: What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can a Rebounding Economy Support Stock Prices?
This week’s economic calendar is loaded with all of the most important data. In addition, Super Tuesday might provide a defining event to the political campaign. Oil remains volatile, and Fed Speakers are on the loose. Despite the political stories, I expect the punditry to be asking: Can the strengthening U.S. economy support the rebound in stocks?
What are the Biggest Market Worries?
The economic calendar is again light in a holiday-shortened week. There are a variety of important news items, but no dominant theme. I expect the punditry to seize the opportunity by asking, "What are the biggest market worries?"
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is a Recession Looming?
The economic calendar is light and it is the start of the week-long Chinese New Year. This means some media time and space that must be filled. Needing an attention-getter, I expect the punditry to be asking: Is a recession looming?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Correction Over?
Stocks once again made a sharp turnaround late in Wednesday’s session. The “mystery” rebound took the S&P 500 up 3.5% in about two days of trading. Despite the important economic releases and heavy earnings calendar next week, expect the punditry to be asking: Is the correction over?
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Dovish Tilt from the Fed?
Stocks managed a mid-day rebound from a 566-point decline in the DJIA. Among the suggested reasons was more help from central bankers. With a light economic calendar, I expect Fed speculation to compete with earnings in the week ahead. Everyone will be wondering: Will the Fed signal a dovish tilt?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Provide a Floor for Stocks?
Stocks continued the worst start in history. With little sign of dip-buying and the start of earnings season, everyone will be wondering: Can earnings reports provide a floor for stocks?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will There Be a January Effect?
After two weeks of slow, holiday-shortened trading, the A-Teams will (gradually) get back to work. Despite the importance of the data on this week’s schedule, I expect a different sort of fixation on the calendar. We can expect widespread discussion of the question: Will we see a January effect?
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Parade of Pontificating Pundits!
Last week’s stock market had a Jekyll and Hyde feeling, setting the background for the two weeks ahead. We will have lighter volume and plenty of people taking vacation during the holiday-shortened weeks. With plenty of explaining to do and a new year ahead, we can expect: A Parade of Pontificating Pundits!
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is It Finally Time for the Santa Claus Rally?
Last week’s stock results were poor for nearly all funds and sectors. Will this continue? Until Wednesday, we can expect a continuing focus on the Fed. After that announcement we may see a change in tone: Pundits will be asking: Is it finally time for the Santa Claus Rally?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed be Data Dependent?
Back from a quiet, holiday-shortened week, market participants face an avalanche of data and plenty of FedSpeak. This is an irresistible combination for pundits, who will parse each economic report with emphasis on what it might mean for the Fed. In light of many Fed promises, they will all be asking: Will the Fed really be data dependent?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What are the Best Year-End Investments?
There is a lot of data to be reported in only three full trading days, but it does not rate to signal important economic changes. I expect plenty of participants to take the week off and even more will leave after the first hour on Wednesday. The punditry still has pages and air time to fill, despite the lack of fresh news.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Strong Housing Data Give An "All Clear" Signal for the U.S. Economy?
It is a very unusual week for data, with many of the major housing reports on tap and not much else. China’s GDP will be a big story over the weekend, and important earnings news will continue. Despite this, pundits will turn their attention to housing, asking: Can a housing rebound signal “all clear” for the U.S. economy?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings recession coming? Does it matter?
Despite a full slate of data, continuing international events, Washington maneuvering, and a possible record in Fed speeches, a new subject will command attention this week: Will there be an earnings recession, and should we worry?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Behind the Recent Market Volatility?
The recent market volatility has led to a lot of head scratching. Even the Pundit-in-Chief seems to be struggling to make his daily morning and evening observations fit with observed reality. With a light economic calendar and earnings reports just getting started market observers will be asking: What’s the cause of the market volatility?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will global weakness drag down the U.S. economy?
The recent Fed non-decision on interest rates increased worries about global economic weakness. Trading in commodity markets underscores a widespread perception of a potential recession. The week ahead is packed with fresh economic data, including the most important reports. The punditry will be asking: Will the U.S. economy succumb to global weakness?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Has the Fed Assumed a Third Mandate?
Despite many signs of economic improvement, the Fed chose to maintain policy accommodation at emergency levels. In a week that is light on data and long on speeches, this news will be enough to keep Fed policy at the forefront.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Revise Year-End Market Estimates?
Sometimes the calendar dictates the agenda. The Labor Day weekend marks the official end of a summer that was eventful for markets. The punditry will be asking: What is your (revised) EOY target for stocks?
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Are the Lessons from the Market Turmoil?
Dramatic events reset agendas. People re-evaluate probabilities about what is possible as well as the personal implications. Because the recent market story is so big and so fresh the week will start with the punditry asking: What are the lessons from the market turmoil?
Weighing the Week Ahead: The Start of Something Big?
The big market decline has the attention of everyone, even those who do not closely follow the markets. The week will start with the punditry will be asking: Is the market decline the start of something big?
What Investors Must Know About China
The latest story scaring investors witless (TM OldProf Euphemism) is the collapse of the Chinese economy. It has become an element of Wall Street Truthiness. The Chinese are lying about their data, masking the true story. “All of the data” support this according to the commentators, led by pundit-in-chief Jim Cramer and the rest of the gang at CNBC. How about some much-needed objectivity?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Soft Economic Data Confirm the Commodity Price Message?
Recent weeks have emphasized markets (especially declining commodity prices) as a read on the economy. This week’s full slate of data will provide a reality check on that interpretation.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will FedSpeak Interrupt the Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer?
In one sense, the week ahead should be a quiet, dull semi-vacation. As Nat King Cole explained, the Lazy-Hazy-Crazy days of summer – pretzels, beer, and bikinis that never got wet. It is the lull before earnings and includes a light economic calendar. Will the A-Team need to return from the beach because of Greece? Or will it be a quiet week, disturbed only by an avalanche of FedSpeak and consequent punditry? One way or another, I think we will (finally) put the Greek drama behind us and resume the familiar debate about the Fed.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Interest Rate Spike Threaten Stock Prices?
This week’s economic calendar includes the most important housing data, but the market context will prove irresistible to the pundits. Stocks continue at the top of the trading range, and even broke through for a few minutes. Even more interesting is the bond market. Interest rates decisively broke their trading range and also showed a lot of volatility.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for an Upside Breakout?
We have the makings of a volatility cocktail! It is a huge week for economic data. It is the heart of earnings season, with Apple’s report leading off the week. The Fed has a two-day meeting culminating with a policy announcement. Global economic threats continue. Which of these will be the theme?
Weighing the Week Ahead: The Start of an Earnings Recession?
The year-over-year growth rate for forward earnings has once again turned positive. We can and should be on the watch for a true recession – the source of major earnings declines. The talk about an “earnings recession” should not be a source of worry.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming?
After a week loaded with economic data there are plenty of fresh economic worries. In addition, the Fed seems ready to act in spite of some weak data. This means that good news is (finally) good news, and bad news will be bad. For economic and market skeptics, it signals a market shift that they see as long overdue.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Correction Looming?
No one has a good, verifiable, real-time track record at predicting small corrections. Meanwhile, many investors get sidelined because they read an article or saw a chart suggesting that “the big one” was right ahead. Some people have been waiting for years for the correction so that they can get back in the stock market. Even when the correction finally comes they will be losers – and that assumes the ability to pull the trigger when things look bad!
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for an Economic Spring Thaw?
In the absence of real data it is easy and tempting to speculate. Unlike last week, the week ahead features an avalanche of data – more in both quantity and importance than we have seen in a month. With some recent significant reports showing economic improvement we expect a change of focus.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Good News Now Bad for Investors?
Anyone who wants to speculate on what the Fed is thinking must include some actual evidence from past transcripts. If, for example, you want to suggest that the Fed “wants a market correction” (you can’t make this stuff up) then you have to find at least one historical example where some participant raised that idea. Otherwise, shut up!
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Economic News Alter Fed Policy?
The exact timing of the first Fed rate increase does not matter. There is a difference between tight monetary policy and slightly less accommodative policy. Markets do quite well in the early stages of rising rates, especially when starting from a low initial point. This will be ignored by many who will invoke “Don’t fight the Fed.” This will be the fundamental battleground between traders and investors, bears and bulls, and various political types – perhaps lasting for years. The end of the business or stock market cycle is not imminent. Bull markets do not die of old age.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Help for the Economy from Housing?
The economic calendar includes much more housing data than we normally see in a single week. With Fed Chair Yellen’s Congressional testimony and the GDP revisions also on tap, I expect many observers to be linking these topics. They will ask:
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for “Risk On?”
With a modest schedule of data releases, we can expect more analysis of last week’s news. Trading in several markets changed course rather abruptly. With traders poised to spot any change in trend, the question will be whether this shift is for real.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the data deluge signal economic weakness?
This is a landslide week for economic data, and earnings season is in full swing. Last week’s Q4 GDP report and overall market tone has revived deflation concerns. I expect market participants to be watching each economic release closely, asking: Are there signs of incipient economic weakness?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Focus on Europe?
This week?s potential themes all defy prediction. I do not know what will happen in Greece. I question the preliminary analysis of the ECB moves. The earnings stories have been a bit better than market forecasts, but with little reaction.
Weighing the Week Ahead: The Message from Fourth Quarter Earnings
I do not know how earnings season will play out this week. My list of things to watch is good, but the market seems to be demanding a parlay of positive indications: Beating the whisper number for earnings; Beating the revenue expectations; Business growth ?organic, not from mergers or purchases; Solid ?quality of earnings? with no gimmicks or accounting moves; A credible, positive outlook.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Message from the Bond Market?
There are many reasons for some to own bonds, but the extremely low interest rates suggest something beyond that. I suggest a leveraged arbitrage with Europe and Japan. Please note: This is basically the opposite of the 1998 carry trade.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for the January Effect?
I am not a big fan of seasonal effects unless there is a logical underlying reason. The Presidential cycle logic rests upon taking unpopular actions early in the term while emphasizing economic stimulus later. That does not have much relevance in the current environment. The January tax loss effect is more persuasive, especially in years where there are some clear losers to sell. That was true in many sectors this year.
Results 151–200 of 219 found.