With soft housing data last week and higher interest rates expected, it is a good time to ask: Is the housing rally over?
We have a quiet week for data. The ObamaCare drama is finished for now. The Fed meeting is over. Earnings season is past the peak. Don’t worry! The punditry will find something new. Analysts will look deeply into the charts and ask: What is the message of the market?
As some market worries have been put to rest, there is a growing appetite for new ones. Pundits who say that things look OK are not very exciting. Last week we saw a shift in attention. Despite healthy earnings and good economic data.
Last week I suggested that the market might be ready for some real news—corporate earnings. That is still a key topic, but attention is focused on world events.
Are you ready for some real news? How about corporate earnings? While there is some economic data on tap, the Q1 earnings season starts in earnest this week. With questions about economic strength, the dollar and the Fed in mind, pundits will be looking for fresh data.
We have a big economic calendar and potential Fed news. Those stories will take a back burner this week. My safest prediction is that we are about to see a new rash of China experts both in print media and on CNBC!
The economic calendar is light until the Friday employment report. Most of the punditry are still digesting the more aggressive talk in the recent speeches from Fed participants. With many observers expecting a correction and looking for a catalyst, pundits will be asking: Will a more aggressive Fed derail the rally in stocks?
It is a big week for economic data and the first address to Congress from the new President. Most of the punditry is engaged in a collective head-shake about overbought conditions. Even if the data flow remains strong.
We have another holiday-shortened week with little fresh data. While there are some Fed speakers on tap, it is not enough to feed the avaricious punditry.
We have a rather light week for economic data. The biggest reports came last week. Earnings season continues. Everyone is keeping a close eye on President Trump, wondering what might happen next. Meanwhile, stocks are at all-time highs and interest rates have stabilized.
We have a normal calendar for economic data. There will be important news will come from corporate earnings reports. Since this earnings season is part of an inflection point – the end of the earnings recession– it is special.
My scorecard for earnings season will look for the following company characteristics: Confidence. I expect most to have a murky outlook, with no reason to set the future bar very high. Important trade relationships – imports or exports. Comments on these fears may create some buying opportunities. Concern about a stronger dollar. Everyone is teed up to watch for this, and we should as well.
Some sort of fund repatriation will be part of the package. All else equal, that suggests a bias to companies that might gain the most. The Atlanta Fed provides some hard data. Expect tax cuts, probably including some nods to Democrats. This will represent fiscal stimulus. Cyclicals continue to show strength, partly from the expectation noted above. (Eddy Elfenbein). The trade war is likely to be a bargaining approach. It is an error to over-react on speculation. The health care issue is far from settled. Early symbolic repeal? Yes. Real changes? Unclear.
As part of my preparation for 2017, I asked how I could be most helpful for individual investors. The suggested resolutions are a combination of expert investment methods and avoiding the most common investor mistakes. They may be difficult to follow. If you can, you will find them profitable.
2017 begins with plenty of economic data crammed into a short week. While most expected at least a touch of Dow 20K last week, it did not happen. The conversation quickly shifted to why the rally stalled out. In the coming week, the punditry will be asking: Should we expect a weak start to 2017?
There is a normal dose of economic data this week, but we are entering a quiet, pre-holiday period. As the rally faltered a bit, the Dow 20K talk yielded to a discussion of what could go wrong.
The post-election market run has been accompanied by improving economic data and increasing confidence. The result has the punditry asking a question that seemed crazy in January: Will the Dow hit 20K?
It is (ahem) a very big week for new data. The A-teams are back from their mini-vacations, ready to take a fresh look at the new world.
It is a short week without much new data. Even FedSpeak is on holiday. The big story will continue to be the Trump transition.
There is some important data on the schedule for this week, along with earnings and the expected doses of FedSpeak. None of that will attract much attention. Instead expect “all Trump, all the time”.
The possible election results are not binary. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, listed below from bearish to bullish. Please note that I am not opining about who I want to win or how you should vote. I am reporting how the market will probably react under differing circumstances, with some references for you to start your own research.
We have normal week for economic data, including the first estimate for Q3 GDP. There are also important earnings reports. Election stories have become even more intense. Meanwhile, the market has been pretty quiet.
We have normal week for economic data, and a big week for earnings reports. The last Presidential debate will grab headlines. We have been monitoring these factors for weeks, but something new is showing up in the data.
We face a modest week for economic data. While equity markets remain open, bonds will not trade on Monday (Columbus Day). Yom Kippur begins Tuesday at sundown and extends through the next day.