A Pundit’s Paradise – Anyone Can Play
We have a full economic calendar. Only the FOMC decision will get major market attention. Initial jobless claims provide a post-virus look at the job market. Housing data remains interesting. Despite this, the media focus will remain on the coronavirus crisis.
Why it is Crucial to Use the Right Time Frame
We have a modest economic calendar. Only two reports will provide any hint about the coronavirus economic impact. The punditry will not be hampered. Without meaningful data, speculation blossoms. There is one idea that could help both your interpretation of data and your investment decisions.
Should Investors Heed the Message of the Markets?
We have a big economic calendar featuring employment news and the latest ISM survey. In normal times, observers would be parsing the data to adjust their economic and earnings expectations. Next week few will care. The market ignored last week’s reports and there is no reason to expect a change to “old news.”
Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett
We have a big economic calendar including important data on consumer confidence, personal income and spending, and inflation. There will also be another round of housing news – two measures of prices, new home sales, and pending home sales. While it is not expected to change, the second estimate of Q4 GDP will be reported.
Is It Time to Worry About Inflation?
The substantial economic calendar features inflation reports and housing, but also includes Michigan sentiment, the Fed’s Beige Book, and NFIB sentiment survey. We will also get the first earnings reports for the Q4 season.
Does Historical Analysis Improve Market Forecasts?
The economic calendar is normal in another week split by a holiday. Many market participants will not show up until Thursday – and perhaps not even then. The ISM reports, manufacturing and non-manufacturing, are both post-holiday. My guess is that the financial media will continue the attention to 2020 outlook ideas. Some reporters will take a look instead at events from the past decade.
Are Investors Too Complacent?
The economic calendar is very light and interrupted by the mid-week holiday. We can always see volatility when volume is low, but many market participants will be on an extended holiday. This includes much of the A-team punditry, but someone will be left to fill the airtime.
Whose Year-Ahead Vision is 20/20?
The economic calendar is especially important. Several housing reports, JOLTs, and the final estimate for Q3 GDP lead the list. Despite this, I suspect a powerful draw from the Gregorian calendar. It is time for those annual forecasts!
Weighing the Week Ahead: All Eyes on Black Friday
The economic calendar is loaded with data and we have a holiday-shortened week. In some circumstances the many economic reports and the Washington stories would dominate. This week the market and economic context suggests a different theme.
Is It Time to Worry about Debt?
The economic calendar is normal with a focus on housing. Some will be parsing the Fed minutes while others watch the impeachment hearings. This week’s topic may not be a media focus for the week ahead, but it gets constant attention. With a government shutdown and the debt ceiling on the agenda, let’s seize the moment and ask: Is it time to worry about debt? I suspect that many readers believe it is way past time!
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is Falling Confidence a Threat to Markets?
The economic calendar is more important than usual. There is an emphasis on housing data as well as reports on leading indicators, industrial production, and regional Fed surveys. The most important story of the week will be the Fed’s Wednesday rate decision.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry about Crowded Trades?
The economic calendar is normal with an emphasis on the consumer. Both PPI and CPI data will be reported, but little change is expected. Central bank fans will have to make do with the ECB Thursday announcement.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Feedback Alter Trump’s Course?
The economic calendar is significant, but fundamentals are taking a secondary role. The Friday Presidential tweetstorm raised uncertainty on trade, the global economy, Fed policy, taxes, and traditional alliances. Attention now turns to the reaction.
Is the Yield Curve Inversion on the Jackson Hole Agenda?
The economic calendar is very light with reports on only three days. Existing and new home sales reports could be interesting and there are many fans of the leading economic indicators. The combination of empty airtime and some Fed news is like an aphrodisiac to the pundits, all of whom are self-affirmed experts on the Fed.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Get Out, Hide Out, or Ride It Out?
The economic calendar is normal, featuring housing starts, retail sales, and Michigan sentiment. The CPI will be important someday, but only when it breaks the recent path of gentle increases. With summer vacations in full swing (even Congress is on a five-week recess) the punditry turns to tried and true topics...
Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Facts Changed Your Mind?
The economic calendar is one of the smallest of the year. With last week’s market decline and increased volatility, pundits who are not on a summer vacation can do some navel-gazing and reconsider their conclusions. Or not.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Part of the Dumb Money?
The economic calendar is light but includes some home sales data and the (old news) Q2 GDP first estimates. Fed speakers will be on the sidelines for the pre-meeting quiet period. Earnings reports remain the most important fresh data for both traders and investors.
Weighing the Week Ahead: How Much Has Economic Weakness Hurt Corporate Earnings?
The economic calendar is normal and includes several important reports. I am especially interested in the housing data and retail sales. More important than the economic data is the start of earnings season.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Who Really Runs the Fed?
The economic calendar is modest with a focus on monetary policy. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting, Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell, more inflation data, and continuing discussion of Friday’s employment report all put the Fed in focus.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Chinese Fireworks?
The economic calendar is a big one, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The rest of the data – ADP employment, auto sales, and the ISM surveys – will be released over 2 ½ days. The US Independence Day celebration on Thursday will provide one type of fireworks.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can US/China Trade Talks Save the Global Economy?
This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we can expect some advance leaks.
Weighing the Week Ahead: A De Facto Expansion of the Fed’s Mandate?
The economic calendar is normal, highlighting housing data, leading indicators, and the FOMC decision. The pundit conversation remains all about the Fed, but a new angle is getting more attention. The talking heads will not raise the question explicitly – sticking to personal ideas of what the Fed should be doing.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What Determines the Agenda for Investment News?
The economic calendar is one of the lightest, and a long holiday weekend impends. How will this news vacuum be filled? Probably with celebrity news, following the latest tweets, analyzing any new Democrats running for President, and interviews with B-level guests.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Fear A Market Top?
The calendar is modest, with the big reports all hitting last week. Investors will never have more current information on the economy, the Fed, corporate earnings, and various risks than they do right now. It is difficult to guess what the punditry will do when given an open slate.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Why is the Market so Quiet?
The economic calendar is light so attention will again focus on Q1 earnings reports. Non-financial news will, no doubt, take center stage. The biggest market story seems to be the lack of action. That might be fine for you and for me, but not for the punditry.
Weighing the Week Ahead: An Avalanche of Housing Data
It is a big economic calendar with almost every report on housing released in a single week. This is the result of the shutdown delay. Now we can get more clarity on this important sector. Pundits will be asking: Are lower mortgage rates helping home sales?
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Hint at a New Course?
With a light economic calendar including a lot of old data and an FOMC meeting, the choice of focus for pundits is obvious. Investors might well wonder what new information about the Fed might be available, but that won’t stop the speculation. Pundits will be asking:
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Slowing Chinese Growth Spark a Global Recession?
We have a big economic calendar with some reporting still catching up from the government shutdown. Inflation data, small business and consumer confidence, and retail sales lead the list. In addition to the U.S. economic data, there is increasing concern about China.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there a New Message from the Markets?
We have a light economic calendar and a short week. We’ll get earnings reports from another 10% of S&P 500 companies. With plenty of time and little fresh information, I expect plenty of pure speculation about the state of the market.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the 200-day Moving Average?
We have a normal economic calendar, and 1/3 of S&P 500 companies have not yet reported Q418 earnings. Corporate earnings are not confirming those who thought the market was signaling a recession. Both the economy and earnings remain in the background. Daily market moves, even small ones, and the often-erroneous explanations dominate the financial news.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Corporate Earnings Results Change the Message of the Markets?
It is a light economic calendar without any of the most important reports. The government shutdown will command increasing attention as long as it continues. Finally, there is some real competition in financial news – the start of earnings season.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Storm Warnings
We have a normal economic calendar. Tuesday’s election will take center stage. Markets have less than expected interest in the election. Partly this reflects confidence in a split outcome, with no major policy changes.
Weighing the Week Ahead: What do the Mid-Term Elections Mean for Financial Markets?
We have a huge economic calendar. While employment data will get most of the attention, there are also important reports on ISM manufacturing, personal income, PCE prices, consumer confidence and auto sales. Earnings season continues with another big week of reports. In normal times these topics would provide plenty to think about.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Spark a Rebound in Stocks?
We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on housing data. Earnings season will be in full swing. The background for this news will, of course, be the stock market volatility and decline of the past week.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Do Rising Interest Rates Signal the Beginning of the End?
There is a light economic calendar with a focus on inflation data. This is timely given the growing fear about rising interest rates. While these reports have been benign in recent years, even a modest uptick could fuel concerns.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Asking the Right Questions
There is a big economic calendar featuring the most important monthly reports – employment, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and auto sales. In normal times we would be analyzing the data and the implications for corporate earnings and interest rates.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Quit Fighting the Last War
There is a normal economic calendar featuring four different housing reports. With little interest in recent economic or earnings news, the punditry has been interested in history. For many it is another opportunity to sell fear.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation Watch
There is a big economic calendar competing with mid-term election campaign stories. The increase in hourly wages in the employment report offset some market enthusiasm about continuing job market strength. With inflation concerns on a hair trigger, expect special focus on this week’s PPI and CPI. The Beige Book and JOLTS report will also get pundit scrutiny.
Weighing the Week Ahead: All About Jobs!
There is a huge economic calendar in a holiday-shortened week. The mid-term elections impend, so politicians will be on the stump. With Labor Day setting the stage and the week loaded with key employment reports, expect plenty of attention to employment issues. Much of this will be confusing and unproductive spinning.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Worry about the Yield Curve?
Once again, the economic calendar is fairly light. Vacations continue for many. The upcoming Labor Day weekend will tempt many market participants to end this week early. Financial news seems more like political news these days. Much of the punditry is focused on a death watch for the bull market, with daily discuss of the flattening yield curve and speculation about when it will “invert.” This is not the right question. Pundits should be asking: Should investors be worried about the yield curve?
Weighing the Week Ahead: A Message from Jackson Hole?
The economic calendar is light, and many are already on vacation. Even actual economic news has not competed with the ‘what can we talk about on a slow Friday’ story over the last few weeks. The real news this week begins with the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and ends with Chairman Powell’s speech Friday morning.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Don’t Get Framed!
The market remains in a narrow trading range, near the record highs. There have been some relatively minor leadership changes. This reflects not investor complacency, but intense disagreement about how to interpret data and events. Each viewpoint has a history, a philosophy, and problem something to sell!