As the oil surplus builds, we expect U.S. crude oil to linger at $30-$40 per barrel for the next several months.
Questions about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues are becoming central to commodity markets and capital allocation discussions.
Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have once again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of oil markets.
Attacks and outages could add to the longer-term geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
Continued tight crude balances could be the bigger surprise to the market.
Demand concerns, trade tensions, and strongly implied U.S. production are driving an oil sell-off, much like in fourth-quarter 2018, but the complicated backdrop may create investment opportunities.
While we believe investors can expect a hawkish policy stance to keep supporting prices...
The recent OPEC meetings and press conference have given oil investors greater clarity about the cartel’s intentions and reaction function: OPEC, along with Russia and other partners, agreed to boost aggregate output by 700,000–1 million barrels per day.
The U.S. decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has potentially profound implications for the oil market. While withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) creates many known unknowns, any reduction in Iranian supply will likely exacerbate market deficits, suggesting upward pressure on pricing.
How sensitive is the U.S. economy to rising oil prices? A popular view is that growing U.S. energy output has largely immunized the economy against the adverse effects of pricier oil.
Everyone seems to be a commodities bull lately. PIMCO is no exception: Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook suggests an overweight to real assets, including commodities.
The oil market outlook is always a bit complicated, in part due to the impact OPEC can have on balances. For all the attention paid to changes in U.S. shale output, OPEC is capable of swinging oil balances more in a single month than U.S. shale can in a year.
Though uncertainties remain, we have a broadly positive outlook for commodities in the next year.
We believe the impact on balances and prices ultimately will depend on five key variables.