Results 151–200 of 290 found.
Stocks Plunge Most On Record Last Week, Oil Down 10%
In the first week of 2016, US stocks plunged by more than in any other first week of January since records have been kept (before 1900). The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell over 1,000 points from 17,591 at the close on December 31 to 16,519 at the close last Friday – a loss of over 6% in one week.
2015 In Review: It Was A Wild Year In The Markets
As we begin another New Year, it is often good to reflect on the year that just passed and what we may have learned from it. Here are some thoughts about the market activity we saw in 2015 and what we may see in 2016.
Fed Set To Pull Trigger Tomorrow - A Good Thing Or Bad?
The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets US monetary policy convened in Washington this morning for its last meeting of 2015. It is widely expected that the Committee will vote to hike the key Fed Funds rate for the first time in almost a decade before the meeting concludes tomorrow.
Retirement Savings Crisis Getting Worse, Not Better
As long-time readers know, one of my continuing themes over the years has been saving, and in particular saving for retirement. Record numbers of Americans are retiring every year and, unfortunately, most have not saved nearly enough for the retirement lifestyle they envisioned.
Eerie Similarities To Those Before 2000 "Dotcom" Bear Market
In the period leading up to the recession and bear market of late 2000-2002, the stock market was led by four large tech stocks: Microsoft, Dell, Cisco and Intel – the so-called “Four Horsemen.” These stocks continued to surge in 1999 and early 2000 even though much of the rest of the market was underperforming or moving lower. A severe bear market followed.
The World Is Looking More & More Deflationary
Consumer prices are running well below the 2% inflation target of central banks across the developed world. While central bankers continue to say they expect inflation to return to 2% or thereabouts in the medium-term, there is no evidence of that.
Economy Is Improving, Yet Most Americans Are Pessimistic
Today we tackle several issues. We start with the fact that several new surveys show that most Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and the direction the country is headed. This is despite the fact that the economy has been growing for the last five years, the unemployment rate is the lowest in seven years and the stock market has more than tripled since 2009.
U.S. Debt To Hit $20 Trillion, Poverty Remains Rampant
As long-time clients and readers are well aware, the explosion in our national debt has been one of my continuing themes over the last 30+ years, under both Republican and Democrat presidents. So today’s discussion is not a political issue, and it should worry us all.
China & Fed Lift-Off Dominate Market Trends - Why?
Is it just me, or does it seem like the global markets are preoccupied with two things: China’s economy and when the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates? Sure, there are other things going on, but these two topics seem to be driving the financial markets more than any others this year.
Upcoming Debt Ceiling Fight Could Get Really Ugly
Here we go again – another debt ceiling battle will play out between now and November 5 when the Treasury says it will run out of “extraordinary measures” to fund the government without exceeding the current debt limit of just over $18 trillion. If the debt ceiling is not increased, the US government will default on its debt.
September Jobs & Manufacturing Reports Disappoint Again
As is becoming increasingly frequent, we will touch on several bases today, given that there’s so much going on these days. (Speaking of bases, How ‘bout them Texas Rangers!!) Hitting several topics in a single E-Letter makes it more interesting and fast-paced for me, and I hope the same is true for you. After all, YOU are what this is all about. That’s why I always value your input, positive or negative, so much.
The Economy Surges Higher, But Is It For Real?
Today we look at last Friday’s better than expected final report on 2Q GDP, which was revised from 3.7% to 3.9%. Best of all, this increase was largely due to increased consumer spending which accounts for almost 70% of GDP. Following the paltry 0.6% increase in GDP in the 1Q, this means the economy grew by 2.25% in the first half of this year.
On The Fed, Deflation, Government Shutdown & The Moon
Once again this week, we touch on a variety of topics that piqued my interest over the last week. We begin with some further analysis of the Fed’s controversial decision to hold interest rates near zero last Thursday.
On The Economy, Inflation, China & Odds For Fed Liftoff
The investment markets remain fixated on whether the Fed will hike interest rates for the first time in almost a decade on September 17. Stock market volatility spiked in late August and so far this month, with most global equity markets in “correction” territory. It remains to be seen if the latest stock market chaos will cause the Fed to delay lift-off until December or later.
Global Market Chaos Amidst Worries About China, Etc.
There is so much to write about today it’s hard to know where to start. Equity markets around the world are plunging on worries about China, a possible Fed interest rate hike next month, the worsening bear market in commodities, economic and currency weakness in emerging markets, etc., etc.
Population Growth & Productivity Headed in Wrong Direction
Today we’ll focus on some longer-term economic data which shows, unfortunately, that the US economy is in a multi-decade slide that will be very difficult to reverse. Population growth and worker productivity – the keys to sustained economic growth – are both in decline, trends that are not likely to change anytime soon.
Global Economic Slowdown - Implications For US Stocks
The global economy is rolling over to the downside for the most part. The question is, will this global slowdown take the US economy down with it? While no one knows for sure, that possibility simply cannot be ruled out. If the softening in the global economy leads to a slowdown in the US, that will almost certainly result in a weakening of our stock markets.
"Renter Nation" - US Homeownership Hits 48-Year Low
The government’s Census Bureau reported last week that the US homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in the last 48 years. It is indeed a sad awakening that the level of home ownership is now the lowest since 1967.
Thursday's GDP Report May Hold Big Surprises
The next few days should be an interesting time in the markets. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting today and tomorrow and will release its latest policy statement at the conclusion of the meeting. While it is not expected that the Committee will vote to raise the Fed Funds rate at tomorrow’s meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been talking hawkishly about a rate hike of late.
The National Debt Is Over $18 Trillion, Not $13 Trillion
In June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual “Long-Term Budget Outlook” which concluded yet again that the trajectory of US federal debt is “unsustainable” and will lead to an unprecedented debt crisis in the years ahead.
China’s Stock Markets Imploded In June - Why?
While the mainstream media has been obsessed with Greece over the last month or so, there has been scant attention paid to the fact that China’s high-flying stock markets unexpectedly have plummeted in June and were down around 30% through the end of last week.
Stock Markets Have Stalled Since March – Now What?
I get asked fairly frequently what I think about the stock markets and specifically, whether I believe this unprecedented bull market can continue. My typical answer is, I don’t have a clue. I don’t understand how a country that has increased its national debt from $10.6 trillion in January 2009 (when President Obama took office) to over $18 trillion in January of this year could see its major stock markets more than double during the same period.
IMF Urges Fed Not To Raise Interest Rates Until 2016
On Thursday of last week, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for US economic growth this year from 3.1% earlier in the year to only 2.5% now. That is not surprising in light of the mainly disappointing economic reports we’ve seen recently, and other forecasters have been revising their estimates lower as well.
Our $1.3 Trillion Government-Assisted Student Loan Crisis
I have been wanting to address our exploding student loan crisis for over a year now, but the topic didn’t seem to fit into the normal themes I tackle. Yet in fact, it does: It represents just one more financial/debt crisis facing our country that will surely impact the economy and the investment markets at some point.
China Surpasses America As World's Largest Economy
For the first time in history, the People’s Republic of China’s Gross Domestic Product exceeded the GDP of America, as measured by purchasing power, in 2014. According to the International Monetary Fund, China’s purchasing power GDP hit $17.6 trillion last year versus $17.4 trillion in the US.
Why US Economic Growth May Disappoint Again In 2015
Our main topic today is how the US economy continues to disappoint expectations, and 2015 looks to be no exception. Forecasts for GDP growth this year continue to be downgraded, and there is at least a small possibility that the US economy is slipping into recession.
Do More Americans Feel Confident About Retirement?
More Americans say they are feeling more confident about their retirement. That’s according to the results of the latest “Retirement Confidence Survey” conducted each year by the non-profit Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). The Washington-based EBRI is the leading source for data on savings, retirement, health and related issues.
Why The US Unemployment Rate May Be Wrong
Last Friday’s unemployment report for March was a stunner, no doubt about it. After 12 consecutive months of new job creation above 200,000 per month, the Labor Department reported that only a meager 126,000 new jobs were created in March.
On The Economy, The Environment & Income Tax Time
The combination of topics for today’s E-Letter might seem unusual, and it is – the economy, the environment and income tax time. How do those fit together? They don’t really, but I think you will find today’s discussion on each to be interesting.
US Economy Badly Disappoints Analysts' Expectations
Today we will talk about an economic indicator that I have not written about before, which is compiled and reported monthly by CitiGroup, the American multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Manhattan.
The Surging U.S. Dollar - Good For Some, Bad For Others
The US dollar has been surging against most other currencies over the last year. The question is, is the rising US dollar good for the economy and the investment markets, or not? No doubt, the rising dollar has been buffeting the US equity and bond markets this year and is increasingly cited as the main culprit. That is what we will delve into today.
Strong Jobs Report Hits Fed's Rate-Hike Target Zone
Last Friday’s unemployment report for February was stronger than expected, both in terms of new jobs created and the headline unemployment rate which fell from 5.7% to 5.5%. This sparked growing fears among investors that the Fed will move to raise short-term interest rates sooner rather than later. Stocks fell sharply just after the report.
January Inflation Turns Negative - Is Deflation Upon Us?
Consumer prices fell in January for the third straight month, while inflation over the past 12 months turned negative for the first time since 2009, largely because of cheaper gasoline. In January, the Consumer Price Index sank by a seasonally-adjusted 0.7%, the biggest one-month drop since the end of 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The Most Successful Public Company In The World
Today we focus on the most successful and profitable company in the entire world. It just happens to be an American company, but many of us have never heard of it. If you had invested $1 in this company in 1968, your investment would have soared to $6,638 at the end of last year. I think you’ll be surprised to see which company this is.
Deflation Is Spreading In Europe - Is America Next?
US consumer prices fell in December by the largest amount in six years, reflecting another big monthly decline in gas prices and providing further evidence of falling inflation pressures. The Labor Department said Friday that its Consumer Price Index dropped 0.4% in December, the largest one-month drop since December 2008. It was also the second straight monthly decline in prices with both months reflecting big decreases in gasoline prices.
European Central Bank Embraces QE, For Better Or Worse
Last Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the much-anticipated launch of a sovereign bond buying program at the rate of ?60 billion ($70 billion) per month known as ?quantitative easing.? The amount of the monthly purchases was slightly higher than had been expected.
Swiss Franc's Surge = Chaos In Global Currency Markets
Last Thursday, the Swiss National Bank stunned the financial world by decoupling the Swiss franc from the euro. This surprise move sent the franc up almost 40% against the euro in one day, although it didn?t close that high (up 19%). Nevertheless, many currency traders, banks and brokerages were left with devastating losses.
Is The US Treasury Market Rigged? Some Say Yes
The last time federal regulators took a hard look at how Wall Street banks and brokers trade US Treasury securities ? the largest bond market on the planet by a longshot ? a little company called Google Inc. was just starting out.
Economic Optimism Abounds As Crude Oil Plunges
Each year at this time, we see a plethora of fresh forecasts for the New Year, and this year is certainly no exception, especially with the recent implosion in oil prices. There is widespread agreement that sharply lower energy prices will provide a boost to the global economy this year, especially for oil-importing nations including the US.
Government Spent $29,000 Per US Household in 2014
A new study from The Heritage Foundation found that out-of-control spending in Washington amounted to more than $29,000 per household in fiscal year 2014. Today, I will reprint the highlights of that excellent report. As you will see below, government spending has topped $3.5 trillion in each of the six years that President Obama has been in office.
Plunging Oil Prices Spark Fears of Global Recession
Today, we touch on several bases. No doubt everyone reading this noticed that stocks tanked last week, and now seem to be moving in lockstep with oil prices. While consumers welcome cheaper gas and heating oil prices, there is a growing fear that the collapse in oil prices may be a harbinger of a global recession.
November Jobs Report Wasn't So Great After All
Last Fridays unemployment report for November was a stunner, at least on the surface. US businesses ramped-up hiring across the board in November, putting 2014 on pace to be the best year for job growth since 1999.
On The Economy, Oil Prices & Obama's Temper Tantrum
Last Tuesday the Commerce Department raised its estimate of 3Q Gross Domestic Product to a 3.9% annual pace from the 3.5% rate reported last month, reflecting upward revisions to business investment and consumer spending and a smaller than previously reported decline in inventories. The pre-report consensus was for a slight cut to 3.3%, so the latest report was much better than expected.
Median Household Income Down Last 15 Years - Why?
One of the most puzzling questions in economics today is why did median household income peak in 1999 and has yet to recover? Most analysts cite the fact that we had two serious recessions in the space of a decade, including the financial crisis of 2008-2009.
Global Economy Worsening, But America is on Top
With President Obama making controversial moves on several fronts this month, it is tempting to go all politics this week. The president is threatening to grant defacto amnesty to five or six million illegal aliens, via Executive Order, even though he knows this is unpopular among the American people. Its as if hes in full denial regarding the landslide midterm election results.
Retirement Saving Crisis is Worse Than We Thought
Each year Wells Fargo & Company conducts a survey of middle-class Americans of various ages to see how they are faring with saving for retirement. The results of the 2014 survey were just made public late last month. I will summarize them for you below. Let me warn you in advance they are not pretty!
Consumer Confidence Hit a 7-Year High in October... But
The two most widely-followed indicators of consumer confidence jumped to the highest levels in seven years last week. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 94.5 in October, the strongest reading since October 2007 before the economy entered the Great Recession.
Americans Even More Pessimistic Ahead of Elections
Republicans remain in a favorable position heading into the midterm elections. A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Sunday showed that the GOP now holds an 11-point lead among likely voters. Thats up from only a 5-point lead a week earlier. Some 52% of likely voters want a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favor Democratic control.
Retirement: How To Avoid Outliving Your Savings
With over 10,000 Baby Boomers retiring every day, a pattern that will continue for the next 20 years, retirement savings continues to be one of the most important issues of our day. With 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 the Baby Boom Generation saving enough for retirement is critically important.
Results 151–200 of 290 found.