The market does not care about our opinion regarding what it “should” do. Right now the market does not seem to care that COVID-19 cases and positive test rates are on the rise in the US. What the market cares about now is that economic data has been better than expected...
As we reach the half-way point of what has been an extremely eventful year in asset markets, this week we take a step back and assess the current landscape from a momentum perspective. Where is the momentum and how likely is it to persist?
The unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been showered on the US and global economies has the potential to lead to inflation...an environment of generally rising prices. Unfortunately, this could be playing out in an environment of little to no economic growth.
If Chairman Powell’s comments are interpreted as signaling the likelihood of anemic economic growth over the next two years, we would expect the prevailing trends (growth over value; large over small) to reassert themselves shortly.
In the spirit of full disclosure, this week’s note largely serves as a set-up piece. The main market ETFs are all currently overbought after making dramatic rallies from the March 23rd lows. The strength has been largely driven by a rotation into the more cyclical areas of the market...
In the current market environment, both the bulls and the bears have data points on which they can stake their case. In this note we highlight both sides of the argument and then look at each asset class in an objective way to get a sense for what the market truly believes.
The narrative moves on with investors focused on economic re-openings and the path to a COVID-19 vaccine. We have written at length about how while many think that the market is disconnected from the economy, we do not think that is the case.